TTP Jumps Notes: 30/03/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

3.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers 

WARWICK 

2.50 – Magie Du Ma (micro – hncp hurdle debut) H3, G3  11/4

3.25 – Russe Blanc (hncp chase) H3 7/1

4.00 – Catching On (all hncps + hncp hurdle) 8/1

4.35 –

Corzeam (NHF) H3 25/1

Samburn Shujaa (NHF) 14/1

5.10 –

Bomber’s Moon (NHF) 15/2

Mance Rayder (NHF) 5/2

 

TAUNTON

2.30 –

Hahnenkam (all hncps) 10/1 Fell 8/1

New Reaction (hncp hurdle) H3 G3 15/2 UP 15/2>14/1

Tikkinthebox (micro TJC) G3 20/1 2nd 20/1

3.35 – Mr Kit Cat (all hncps+hncp hurdle) 18/1

4.45 – Bertie Boru (hncp chase) H1 G1 6/5

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KEY:

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 20 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

Bet of The Day… (test, 6/17… +35 points)

2.30 Taunton- New Reaction – 1 point win 15/2 (WH/BV/Lad) 7/1 (gen) UP 14/1 (ran as the dreaded drift/weakness suggested he might,maybe that last run an anomaly)

I have gone with New Reaction as my ‘bet of the day’ from the selections above. This is only his 3rd handicap hurdle run having responded well to headgear LTO which is retained, out-running his odds of 40/1. He raced prominently that day also and with any luck will do so again here. Clearly there should be more to come at some point and he is top 3 on GG speed. The market can often guide with this yard, certainly if he takes a walk in the market. I also noted that he is my New Approach and his National Hunt runners to date have been much better on good to soft and good ground. There is a chance he actually improves massively for this sounder surface and as such that last run in heavy could be marked up. He may not of course but it would be a reason for a more improved performance. He may not react positively to the headgear combo of course but given his profile and the moderate level of the race, there is enough juice in his price I think.

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I have backed TikkinTheBox on the ‘RP 10/1+’ strategy – I am not going to play silly buggers with him- he qualifiers, he is being backed. He is lightly raced in handicaps, takes a step up in trip, drops in class and is on better ground. The PU the last day is a concern- maybe he is a bleeder or something, I don’t know, but he did stop rather quickly. But, these ones drop in every now and then and he ran ok the race before.

Hahnenkam- well he isn’t a ratings pointer horse and the market may guide as to expectations- trainer is 3/30,5p with stable newcomers in the last 2 years, having their first run for him. Those winners have been decent prices though and as such that angle is profitable. I have had 1/2 a point on mainly as I have backed the other two and it would be just my luck that he would go on to win!

Corzeam is the other ‘RP 10/1+’ qualifier on morning prices, if you follow that strategy. There is some ability here and I will have to have a go. NTD is 3/85,7p with NHF runners sent off 22/1 or bigger, but a couple of those have been monster prices. 50/1+, from around 20 such runners. I suppose if you are going to back one in that price range, doing so at a track he does well at and him being a ‘ratings pointer’ horse, is probably as good an excuse as any. The horse refused on his first start and was tricky LTO, but led for a fair way. He may refuse again. He may try and make all. If he settles and builds on that last run, who knows. He may stay out in front all the way round. He will probably fade as they turn for home, but I suspect he will be some BFSP. Just the kind of horse that can leave you with head in hands as they bolt up.

Of the rest… well Russe Blanc may qualify on’RP 10/1+’ if he is sent off 11.00 or bigger BFSP. That is a price you can set and forget about, getting matched if his BFSP is 11.00 or bigger. I don’t think there are too many positives for him over that distance on good ground, but you never know, and my job in this bit is not to put you off horses.

The two NHF horses in the 5.10 are unraced and could clearly be anything, NTD 3/11 with 1st time out NHF horses here in recent years.

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3.Any general messages/updates etc

A few research articles to have a flick through if you wish…

Grand National 2017: Race Stats/Trends/Pointers: CLICK HERE>>> (‘winning profile’ will follow at some point)

Aintree GN Meeting Handicap Angles Report (posted the other day) CLICK HERE>>>

Cheltenham Review Post: That is now complete (3 vids + notes) CLICK HERE>>>

THE FLAT: Trainer Track Profile: Doncaster – CLICK HERE>>>

( I suppose given that the above is complete I should post any Donny qualifiers over the weekend)

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That is all for today. Good luck with any bets.

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

7 Comments

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  • I think those trends knock out all 8 of my early GN fancies so back to the drawing board (although in fairness if I managed to get Rule the World last year so could be another one of those years-shameless I know but I can do with reminiscing about the good times). Is there a “Max Distance Placed” filter on HRB since I cant see it as personally as I like to have a horse which has at least placed in one of the other Nationals whether its Scottish/Welsh/Irish or one of the regional ones.

    Nick Mazur 29/03/17 6:12 PM Reply


    • Yep not a race I have a great record in as yet!! a nose photo second the best effort in recent years. I will see what kind of winning profile I can pull together but am tempted to go through it as if a ‘normal’ handicap chase, before using any stats. It is just becoming a class handicap really a bit like the Hennessy. Need an ability to travel strongly, jump well, and have a touch of class I think. Front 3rd is still the place to be I think, esp on decent ground where they seem to go a pace and don’t really stop – can’t recall much coming from the back over these fences in general, but I could be wrong there.

      Josh 30/03/17 2:03 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh, I’m looking at the >10/1 stats & wondering if they also work for NHF races as well as they do for the jumps?

    Nick Pilbeam 30/03/17 8:44 AM Reply


    • Hi Nick,
      The NHF 10/1+ is something I need to add to my list of things to review tomorrow in my March/2017 review to date…

      I do know that Micky Hammond had a 25/1, 50.00 BFSP NHF winner for us at Wetherby a few weeks back- and they pay for a lot of losers and leave some decent profits! You will see in the full results spreadsheet that such runners are marked with the NHF code so it will be easy enough for me to go through and pull out for sure.
      As I write I don’t have those exact figures to hand but will do soon.

      There haven’t been many ‘RP 10/1+’ quals in NHF races from memory, but again something for me to look at.
      Josh

      Josh 30/03/17 8:47 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh,
    Looking at tomoz Font 3.40 Mr Muddle. Should this be a micro (runs) as Gary taken over from Sheena after start of season ?
    No need to answer here, I’ll see if it’s on your list later.
    Cheers
    Mike

    titus_a_duxass 30/03/17 3:25 PM Reply


    • Hi Mike, I don’t over think angles such as that – if he has had the right number of runs (yet to look) he will qualify, regardless of who may have trained him before. I take those stats at face value and cannot look at such things when doing the research etc.
      Josh

      Josh 30/03/17 3:37 PM Reply


      • I think that answers it for me Josh. More of a loose query than need to know but not come across similar one all season. Total runs exceed qualification so no bet, 4 runs for Gary. Only 4 in race anyway but might have a nibble anyway if outsider.
        Cheers

        titus_a_duxass 30/03/17 3:53 PM Reply


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