TTP Jumps Notes: 29/03/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

3.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers 

 

SEDGEFIELD

2.10 – Onwiththeparty (all hncps) G1 11/2 WON 11/2>5/1

3.10 – Incholm (hncp chase) H1 5/1 PU

5.20 – Turtle Cask (hncp hurdle) 7/1

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

Quick reflection on Orioninverness… ah. I can’t work out if I am annoyed I didn’t put him up as ‘bet of the day’ or not. Clearly from the horse I fancied in the free post I wasn’t overly enthusiastic as to his chance!  Firstly, never be put off a TTP qualifier by anything I say in this bit – the idea is for me to add my thoughts and ‘enhance’ a horse’s chance, or one I may be more confident on over others. Not put you off horses.  Always trust the stats long term, first and foremost. I was rather on the fence to his chance, far from negative, but I know a few of you had a go at decent odds… he was unexposed over fences so he could have been a ‘bet of the day’ pick. As always when they win it becomes more obvious.. I ‘could have’ focused on the fact it was only his 5th chase start,he was in the process of running two good races at Ayr before falling twice, he dropped in class here from his last two runs,his mark had come down a fair way in a short space of time,jockey claim, and as importantly Russell was in the best form she had been in for a while. Weak race and heavy ground also, likely slower pace. The other factor, which I have banged on about before but omitted from my thinking this time- was a change of tactics. Now, sometimes we can spot this/guess with a 1st time headgear or something. But, this one had been held up on all of his chase starts, making errors. They had him right up there today, no horses in front of him. Never discount that as a reason for improvement,especially on one who has struggled to jump. 10s clearly worth a dart in hindsight. I would have liked to have had 1 full point on him. I didn’t. We move on…

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Bet of the Day… (test, 6/17,+35 points)

NONE today.

Nothing else to add.

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3.Any general messages/updates etc

RESULTS SPREADSHEETS:

Updated 2017 to date (week end 26th May)

-All Qualifiers: Click HERE>>>

-Ratings Pointers Only: Click HERE>>>

As previously discussed I will review results come the end of March for 2017 to date. Also note the Ratings Pointers Only results above are missing some detail on the Ratings Pointers. These will be updated for the end of the month/review. But, you can read the running PL totals to date etc.

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KEY:

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 20 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

14 Comments

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  • Multipede 5.20 Only 9-1 tops at this point, but there is a chance could be a lot lower by race time. Turn around in yard form + suggestion could be a bit better than a C5 horse.

    Quote from yard about a week ago – ”Look out for Multipede next time
    out he’s come on for his last run” – suggests they’ll be expecting a run and they may already know they have a ‘better than C5’ prospect.

    Stephen Cross 28/03/17 6:02 PM Reply


    • Yes Stephen and Lucy A has been riding well too. She deserves the winners after a long list of injuries.
      I hope Ewart’s flat string are ready to be off the mark as well.

      Tony Mc.

      tonymc 28/03/17 9:11 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh, Plus as Lucinda Russell trains her horses uphill….Certain types love Hexham…
    They’ll just grind other horses down.

    Tony Mc.

    tonymc 28/03/17 9:01 PM Reply


  • Nice win with Onwiththeparty. I didn’t know whether to back him because he wasn’t 10/1+ but eventually I backed him in play. I guess top rated horses are worth it even below 10/1?

    John 29/03/17 2:26 PM Reply


    • Hi John,
      Yep as I have said the RP10/1 approach is ‘the’ advised strategy if you do nothing else, and have no intention of approaching any of the other qualifiers- it is the best on ROI and for stress levels – given it averages around 1 bet per day and the losing runs will never be as severe as some other strategies- well, i think in time backing all qualifiers 10/1+ will be the most profitable but they lost 70 points in Feb, on the back of +158 in Jan- and many wouldn’t be happy with such peaks and troughs, hence why #1 is #1.

      There is no right or wrong approach with the rest of the qualifiers-

      In Febs review I looked at top rated… https://racingtoprofit.co.uk/2017/03/06/ttp-results-update-end-feb2017-upd1/

      I suspect when I look at March in a couple of days/2017 to date, we may be in a strong position to ‘advise’ backing all Geegeez Top Rated is another systematic option.
      Come end of Feb they were 12/53, +29 points to BOG/Early prices in 2017 to date.
      March will have bolstered those figures and geegeez speed seems to have a value edge over HRB, i suspect because Dr Peter May’s methods are not widely circulated/factored into price- unlike Timeform say which is factored in.

      Anyway, come the March review I may be able to add to the #1 advised strategy with ‘geegeez top rated’
      HRB tend to be a lot shorter/well found in the market, but again the March figs will make for interesting reading.

      Josh

      Josh 29/03/17 3:01 PM Reply


      • Hi Josh.

        Onwiththeparty was briefly available for 11 on Betfair exchange late morning, not sure how long it needs to be available to qualify for the number 1 approach. A free night at the poker off the back of this one, thank you very much!!

        Jamie 29/03/17 11:36 PM Reply


        • Hi Jamie, glad to read you had a piece at a decent price. He won’t count officially as I have to be consistent/fair in how I record those results etc. Glad he paid for a free poker night!
          Josh

          Josh 30/03/17 8:44 AM Reply


  • nice these days when you know your going to make a profit after the 1st race whatever else happens 🙂
    Onwiththeparty 6.8 bf 5pt win returns 34pts

    martin whittle 29/03/17 2:30 PM Reply


    • I got 13/2 on Skybet… a good start. I wish I was more disciplined with my bank & bets…but I’m not lol.

      tonymc 29/03/17 2:49 PM Reply


  • on a separate note after reading yesterdays posts and having a very good run on my fun bets i withdrew my years starting bank plus enough to buy a new motorcycle jacket so whatever happens now even if banks go tits up at least i have made a new jacket. 🙂

    martin whittle 29/03/17 2:37 PM Reply


    • Born to be wild eh Martin. lol. Good Luck and keep your motor runnin!

      tonymc 29/03/17 2:47 PM Reply


    • Good stuff Martin, it is important to take a bit out every now and then and treat yourself! Enjoy.

      Josh 29/03/17 3:03 PM Reply


  • hi josh,
    interesting to see you will probably be advising adding geegeez top rated to #1 strategy,
    that is what i have been doing for a few weeks now, as well as all saturday 10+. i had been chopping/changing approach, but will stick to this now right thru to end april and oct / apr next year. interesting to see if i have got best out of it? should be ok anyway

    pendrem 30/03/17 7:35 AM Reply


    • Hi Malcolm.. yep as with all things given how I now record results since the start of the year, the data is building up on all the different ‘ways in’
      I would ensure you have at least one constant approach, hence the advice for the #1 strategy, and from there you can chop/change and try different things all the while ensuring that you are still making decent profits.
      I wouldn’t stress too much about ‘getting the best ‘ out of it, as that search for perfection is a challenge. Whatever approach any user adopts, mixed in with some subjective judgement, means we will all miss winners every now and then. That is part of it sadly. As long as you are enjoying it and making some decent profits that is the main thing.

      From what you are saying that sounds like a good approach, and should ensure you capture plenty of the decent priced winners, which is where the big profits are.

      I do want to have a look at all 20/1+ shots and see what the stats are for those also, both morning prices and BFSP. Could make for interesting reading.

      Josh

      Josh 30/03/17 8:51 AM Reply


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