TTP Jumps Notes: 27/03/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

3.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers 

MARKET RASEN

2.40 – Nautical Twilight (hncp hurdle) 6/1 UP

3.10 – Zara Hope (micro runs in 90 days) G3  11/2 UP

4.40 – Oscar Star (NHF) 14/1 UP

5.10 –

Melangerie (NHF) H3 15/2 WON 15/2>5/1

Presenting Pearl (NHF) 4/1 2nd

 

PLUMPTON

2.30- Turban (all hncps + hncp chase + micro age) 14 H3, G1 7/2 WON 5/2>11/10 (after R4)

3.00- Clondaw Bisto (hncp hurdle) 16/1

3.30 – Goonjim (all hncps) H1, G3 9/4 2nd 

4.00-

The Partysover (all hncps + micro TJC) 14   G3 6/1 WON 9/2 (after R4) 

Dragoon Guard (hncp hurdle) 14,30 9/2 BD

5.00 – Major Davis (NHF) (late addition, as of 8.28am,thanks Mike!) 7/2 UP

 

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KEY:

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 20 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

Bet of The Day Test (6/16, +36 points)

NONE today.

Were Turban still 6s, which he was last night, I would have probably put him up- but he is 7/2 now so I have missed that boat. He may still make that look good. Henderson is hitting some form and this one once won a 50k handicap chase in Jan 2014 off a mark of 140, for Willie Mullins. Before then going up to the 150s. Henderson does well with these old boys from Ireland and off a mark of 112 he is starting to look dangerous. He will bolt up in a weak race one day, and it could be today. He is geegeez top rated and given his price this morning it appears a big run is expected.

Clondaw Bisto is worth a mention- 22/1 generally last night, now 14s, 12s.. I have thrown 1/2 point at 16s this morning when I saw a little bit of money coming but I am not confident enough to ‘tip it’ – he is unexposed but they kept running him in novice hurdles and his prices suggests to me he was there to run well, which he hasn’t really done on recent starts. Given his form in the slop I wasn’t jumping to the conclusion that he would improve for good ground- maybe he will- non handicap form on soft/heavy can be deceptive as they can just out-class opposition, when all along they have actually wanted decent ground. Suzy Smith has been on the cold to freezing list for a while now also. He was worth 1/2 a point to find out, and I will see how he goes.

As i write, based on morning prices, there are no ‘RP 10/1+’ qualifiers (#1 advised strategy- read note below if that means nothing to you…) so any that may qualify will be on the 11.00+ BFSP part of that approach. Set and forget. Although there would have to be some big drifts for any to hit that..not impossible with the likes of melangerie or Thepartysover.

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3.Any general messages/updates etc

1.RESULTS UPDATE> my first job Monday morning, once the posts are complete, is to update the two results spreadsheets. So, links to those will be in Tuesday’s post, before I then do a monthly review for March in a few days time.

2. How to Approach The Content… don’t forget to read the welcome note HERE>>> for info about the advised strategies etc. There is no right or wrong way to approach the content on these pages/qualifiers in section 1 but this info is intended as a starting point. The key is enjoyment and long term profit, however you attack the qualifiers.

3. TTP Stats Guide... to clarify something I said a couple of days back… all members, post any free trial period and after first payment, have access to an ‘Exclusive Downloads’ section of the Members Area. This is where the links to stats guides, either free or discounted, can be found. But, given we are so far through the main jumps season, you can download and read the TTP Jumps stats pack HERE>>>  It is this stats pack that all qualifiers in section 1 above are based on. 

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My week ahead/to do list, if you have any interest…

Results updates+monthly review/ monthly research article- which I think will be the Summer Jumping TTP (you will all get that for free/as part of Membership)/TTP: Flat – I plan to ‘launch’ that just after Aintree so plenty of HorseRaceBase time ahead there / Aintree research – stats/trends for a handful of races from the Grand National meeting,inc the big one- I want to get that complete this week/+ all the usual daily content/ enough there to get me through to the weekend I think.

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Playing big odds/the ‘value game’ is  a bumpy ride…

Just an aside, as to my ‘tipping’ (mainly on the free posts + this years Festival) (not ‘bet of the day’) which thankfully has been decent in the last 13 days…. but it isn’t always like this! As an example of how it goes in this game… last year, in the first four months of the year, my jumps tips hit a high point of around +138 points. The jumps tips ended 2016 on around +75 points. So, I loaned back 63 points over those 8 months that followed. I mean I was a tad out of form. That wasn’t a problem if like me you had been backing them since the start of the year. More of an issue if you started following in June, for example. In the last 13 days my tips have won +72 points. That’s how quickly it can change when your punting guns are focused on horses 7/1, 8/1 or bigger. And if you throw in ‘bet of the day’, which is a test, then it is over +100 points in a little under a month. As ever, if you trust your approach, patience is often rewarded. (there is plenty I can improve on with ‘tipping’, as ever, you can always get better) 

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That is all for today.

Good luck with any bets.

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

6 Comments

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  • Have to say you’re on fire at present Josh.

    Just one to add at Plum or am I missing something?
    5.00 Major Davis (nhf)

    Mike

    titus_a_duxass 26/03/17 8:25 PM Reply


    • I dare say I have missed something there. Who is the trainer? Have just shut computer down for the day. Will update in the morning. I have either just missed the race or everything blurred into one. Or I was distracted by antiques roadshow. Probably that!

      Josh 26/03/17 8:31 PM Reply


      • No worries Josh, Fully understandable after recent efforts.
        It’s one of Warren’s.

        titus_a_duxass 26/03/17 8:39 PM Reply


  • keep a look out for any market moves on John Caesar wolves 2-50 might be ready to win.

    martin whittle 27/03/17 8:27 AM Reply


  • hi josh, just a thought regarding OSCAR STAR, never ran, so cant qualify as ratings pointer, having £2 BFSP. its possible such 10+ never ran could be worth backing, so will start monitoring such ones, will let you know results, or is it something you can check easily?

    pendrem 27/03/17 10:28 AM Reply


    • Hi Malcolm… no it’s not something i keep a record off… the all results spreadsheet has the ‘NHF’ code next to relevant qualifiers, so we can see the NHF results etc over time- but not whether they are first time starters- I suppose looking at all those NHF runners with no ratings pointers would narrow it down- most of those would be unraced.

      Josh 27/03/17 10:38 AM Reply


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