TTP Jumps Notes: SAT 25/03/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

3.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers 

 

BANGOR

2.50 –

Atlantic Storm (all hncps) 5/4 WON 11/4 

Prince Khurram (micro going IF SOFT)

3.25 – Cowslip (micro going IF SOFT)

4.35

Sam Red (all hncps) 8/1 2nd

Will O’The West (hncp hurdles) 8/1 Fell

 

NEWBURY

1.50 –

Shotavodka (hncp chase) 4/1 UP

Vieux Lille (micro class) 6/1 PU

2.25 –

Ulck Du Lin (hncp chase + micro runs this season) 20/1 UP

Warrior’s Tale (hncp chase) H3 H1 7/1 WON 9/2 

Icing On The Cake (hncp chase) 12/1 3rd

3.35 –

Final Choice (all hncps + micro TJC) 25/1 UP

Hygrove Percy (hncp hurdle) G3 12/1 (RP10/1+ qual)  UP

Dusty Raven (hncp hurdle) 33/1 UP

5.20 – Imperial Presence (micro class)  G3 9/2 WON 10/3 

 

KELSO 

2.40 – Isaacstown Lad (all hncp) 14,30  G1 13/2 UP

3.15 – Baywing (all hncps)  14,30 H1 4/1 UP

5.00 –

Top Billing (all hncps)  14,30 10/1 UP

Un Guet Apens (hncp hurdle)  G3 4/1 2nd 

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

tbc/to follow

Bet of The Day (test..going ok..): 13 bets / 5 wins / +31 points..

Double handed on Saturday…

2.25 Newb – Warrior’s Take – 1 point – 7/1 (general) WON 7/1>9/2

4.35 Bangor – Will O’The West– 1 point win – 8/1 (general) Fell (ah bugger… from my reading of how he was travelling/jockey’s hands/how that race finished, I think he would have gone very close to winning that. Never mind. We were due some bad luck and you have to jump) 

 

These two look interesting enough to me at their prices and I will play them both..

Warrior’s Tale- well he is 2/8,4p over fences and is still unexposed enough in handicap chases. He has some solid form at this track to his name including a facile win in a novice chase LTO- I wonder if that was to boost his confidence. He chased home the George chaser here a couple of runs back. I remember Nicholls at the time saying something along the lines that this horse is a bit skittish/a thinker/can work himself up. I do wonder if he doesn’t like being surrounded by horses, given in his two chase wins to date, in small field novices, he made all and bolted up. There isn’t loads of pace on paper here and I hope Bowen makes plenty of use of him- they should. He clearly likes being out on his own. I think they will make all here and play catch me if you can- against some tired old warriors, a few returning after breaks, and a few who look out of form. He is in form, has course form,is still open to improvement and Nicholls will be trying his best to scoop up pots just like this. He will give me a good spin here and won’t be far away, with any luck. 7s seems decent enough.

Woll 0’The West – 8s seems big given her earlier form including that C2 run at Cheltenham. Maybe she needs decent ground and that is why has had a break. In any case this is a drop in class from her last two hurdle starts and she may appreciate these calmer waters. The ground may dry out a tad leading up to the race also, no rain forecast. Her best handicap hurdle run can over 24f on good at Cheltenham. This is only her second handicap hurdle run in similar conditions. Daly has a good record with handicap hurdlers returning 60+ days off, 18% win SR and +70 points or something last 5 years. Trainer and Jockey are 2/6,4p in handicap hurdles at the track in the same period. 8s seemed worth a go. That will seem big if she returns/builds on, that Cheltenham form.

That will be it for this evening/Bet of the Day.

Hygrove Percy looks like being the only ‘RP 10/1+’ qualifier but we shall see. Some may drift/morning prices bet put in 10s+. Saturday’s have generally been good as we know. A few big big priced ones in that 3.35.

 

MORNING UPDATE: Not much more to add really. Dusty Raven probably looks the most interesting of ‘the biggies’ (Ulck Du Lin/Final Choice/Dusty Raven) given he gets better ground, steps up in trip and gets a visor on. They are all reasons why he may out run his odds and we are dealing with young horses here. Jockey bookings suggest Hygrove Percy is the more favoured one, which is good news for any ‘RP 10/1+’ backers. Ulck Du Lin and Final Choice looks to have a few too many questions to my eyes, but I have been wrong on big priced ones before, and on Saturdays, so who knows!

 

3.Any general messages/updates etc

VERY IMPORTANT: If you are new, or still have no idea how to approach the content on these daily Members’ posts, please refer back to your welcome email, which you can also read HERE>>>

If you have any other questions please email me: info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  and I will do my best to answer them. (maybe not this weekend, but on Monday at the latest)

DONT FORGET… you have full access to the stats packs (‘TTP Jumps’) that the qualifiers in section 1 are based on. You can find this/download it etc in the ‘Exclusive Downloads’ section to the left hand side when you are logged in.

 

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Sunday Trends

Some pointers for the Ulster National from Downpatrick

19/19, 20/1 or shorter SP

19/19, 11-7 or less… 11-8+ … 0/19,2p

19/19 ran within the last 60 days… 61+.. 0/28,4p

0-1 runs this season: 0/18,1p

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10 year stats… (10/135 runners, 30 placed horses)

10/10 Age 10 or younger (11+… 0/17,0p)

10/10 had 5-13 chase starts (14+… 0/39,5p… 1-4 – 0/11,2p)

10/10 had 7 or fewer handicap chase runs (8+ 0/44,5p… 0 handicap chase runs… 0/11,2p)

10/10 top 4 at least once lace three runs (0/33,3p did not)

10/10 had won between class 5-3 only… (class 2+ winners.. 0/26,0p… need some Irish class translation there!)

10/10 had 11-7 or less on back (exc claims) (11-8 + … 0/16,3p)

9/10 placed at least once last three starts (1/46,6p did not)

9/10 had 0-2 places in handicap chases (3+… 1/51,9p) (10/10 had 0-4 places in handicap chases… 5+… 0/24,3p)

8/10 had 3-9 handicap runs.. 8/58, 18p

Ran in a hurdle LTO: 0/19,1p

PU LTO: 0/10,0p

Track LTO

  • Fairyhouse: 3/16,5p… +13

Trainers

  • No trainer with more than one winner as yet. Elliot/Mullins/Meade with wins and many ‘lesser names’.

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Shortlist: TBC in Sunday’s Post.

 

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That is all for Saturday.

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

21 Comments

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  • Hi Josh.

    I know you said the membership options are closed until you sort the issues you were having but in the meantime could you clarify something for me please? I joined January this year at £10 per month. I think I’m right in saying my subscription will be going up to £12.50 per month but is capped for as long as I remain a member. Do I need to do anything or will the new price implement itself when my current price expires?

    Regards
    Jamie

    Jamie 24/03/17 4:17 PM Reply


    • Hi Jamie,
      Those gremlins are fixed now but you don’t need to do anything. Your current option takes you through to September at 10 pm, at which point you will have a chance to join the ‘new deal’ which is a locked in/never to be raised fee of £12.50 pm or £127 per year. There is no point in cancelling your current one now and joining the new one as it will cost you an extra £15 (£2.50 per month) through to Sept, and I am sure you can think of something to spend that on!
      Come September you will be able to ‘renew your subscription’ from within the Members Area. You will be able to log in when it expires, just not read any members content-and at that point you can just add yourself onto the new deal.
      Josh

      Josh 24/03/17 4:45 PM Reply


      • Thanks for the quick reply.

        Well done with the bet of the day. I’m starting to think they might have to be two point bets from now on!!

        Jamie 24/03/17 5:09 PM Reply


        • You and me both!! 🙂 … as pleased/more pleased… that he won for RP10/1+.. given that is a non-subjective angle and a ‘bread and butter’ approach. What with Bescott Spings last week 19.00s, a few losers, and now him, they are ticking along fine.

          Josh 24/03/17 5:12 PM Reply


          • For the first time since joining I missed a winner in Bescott Springs, too caught up in the festival and forgot the core business!! Despite that blooper I’m still up so no harm done. Keep up the good work

            Jamie 24/03/17 5:28 PM Reply


  • Josh. How does the Cowslip (if Soft) mico come about as the horse has won 4 from its 5 wins on Good & 7 of its 10 places?
    Prince Khurram also as that clearly likes good/fast ground.
    I note it is also ok on Heavy but I have long ago noticed the action needed on the flat for Heavy is the same as when going is fast so that also fits.

    Gary 25/03/17 7:01 AM Reply


    • Hi Gary..
      All qualifiers on these posts in section 1 are based on the trainer stats – irrelevant to any particular horse- what conditions actually suit the horse has no bearing on whether they qualify. It is a trainer based approach.

      The micro going angle is one of those- sometimes the horses don’t actually like the conditions which the trainer has done well in etc. That is just how it goes and one of the reasons for having other supporting information such at the ratings pointers/you own subjective judgement.

      Josh

      Josh 25/03/17 10:45 AM Reply


  • A long distance travelling winner yesterday, but at the very short price of 1/3 I didn’t post.

    2 possible qualifiers today at Kelso (8/1 max):

    2:05 – Sleepy Haven 11/2
    2:40 – Bryden Boy 6/1
    March trainer too.

    5 wins from 13 runners
    LSP -0.32 pts @ SP

    Decent strike rate, but all relatively short to-date so could do with a couple of decent priced winners.

    Chris R.

    Chris 25/03/17 8:01 AM Reply


    • Trainer must be up to taking on Teo Vivo again which should say something Chris.
      I think Brydon Boy is in a hot race but should relish conditions.

      BOL Chris.

      tonymc 25/03/17 12:25 PM Reply


  • The return to faster going ought to suit Hygrove Percy 335N and 12/1 Betbright seems a good EW.

    chrisrees 25/03/17 8:07 AM Reply


  • Reve De Sivola 2.40 Kel Would be able to carry 2 of these round and still win 10 l at his best, with the exception of SeeYou who may well just have a gentle race here in readiness for the Scottish National.

    Have to ignore a few poor runs, but it’s not much more than a year since still proving up to Grade 2 level. Reveley is on and may be a pointer that he’s been up for a number of the Auteuil Grade 1 runs including that stunning effort in 2013.

    Could be they think he has one last hit left. Maybe it’s just lining up for one last French raid in June. May even be worth just watching here to see if he still has it for the June race.

    Generally 14-1 outsider of the field.

    Stephen Cross 25/03/17 8:54 AM Reply


    • Snap!

      chrisrees 25/03/17 9:14 AM Reply


  • Note that James Reveley is back from France at Kelso today for two rides, Reve De Sivola 240 and Forest des Aigles 425. He has ridden the former to win a G1 in France in the distant past and the horse will relish the extreme conditions today (as will Knockara Beau now 14). With the Reve available at 16/1, an EW bet is good value assuming the eight run.

    chrisrees 25/03/17 9:05 AM Reply


    • That’s always the problem now Chris…will the 8 run.

      Tony Mc.

      tonymc 25/03/17 12:28 PM Reply


  • Hey Josh and all.

    I just got this years well handicapped three year old horses by Jon Gibby (a most have for me every year). I’ll be getting stuck in to this over the next week, so with Jon’s book, Josh’s TTP for the flat, and a couple of other things, looking to have a great flat season.

    Good look all for today

    Gavin 25/03/17 12:38 PM Reply


  • Sorry I’ve not been posting I’m busy with work at the mo .but anyone who followed my march amigos I posted last week.another winner today bodega 1.50 at Newbury .still time this month for a couple more (I hope).

    jamie2255 25/03/17 2:14 PM Reply


    • Another gambol in the 2.55 happy days

      Jamie 25/03/17 3:25 PM Reply


  • Your best bets are on fire. I was very confident in Warrior’s tale also. Grabbed him at 7.8, great value.

    John 25/03/17 2:46 PM Reply


    • Yes all a bit mad in truth! 6 winners from last 9 bets, all 7/1+ . We shall see how long I can keep it going but the bet of the day bank starting to look healthy.

      Josh 25/03/17 2:51 PM Reply


  • Loked like Will O’ The West clipped heels and fell rather than made a mistake when travelling best 3 out.

    Hugh Fowler 25/03/17 4:55 PM Reply


    • Ah that may explain why it did loolong a bit odd. Couldn’t see too clearly. One of those things. He was tanking to my eye but that’s racing for you.

      Josh 25/03/17 5:00 PM Reply


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