TTP Jumps Notes: 22/03/17 (complete)

NOTE: just a quick reminder for anyone new… i try and get all qualifiers + ratings pointers up ASAP the afternoon before the next day’s racing. This is rarely later than 5pm, to give you enough time to place any bets in the evening,if you are unable to do so in the morning say. All posts are complete by 10am on the day of racing Monday-Friday- i occasionally miss a selection but some of you good members highlight when I do and corrections can usually be made by that 10am cut off. Human error creeps in every now and then. Sunday’s posts- usually all content is uploaded/complete on the Sunday morning, by 11am latest- just depends what i am up to on the Saturday! And likewise Monday’s post can be up on the morning, again depending on my Sunday plans. Hope that makes sense. 

As with all my blog posts you can track progress in the title bar- (upd1, upd2 etc etc) When you read (complete) you know it is complete.

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

3.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers 

 

HAYDOCK

3.40 – Sammy B (micro going) 14,30  H3 (5/1) WON 7/2 

4.10 – Cody Wyoming (hncp chase) H3+G3 (8/1) pU

 

WARWICK 

3.50 – That’s Gonna Sting (all hncps) 30 G3 (10/1- B365+BV- ‘RP10+’ Qual) UP

4.20 – Sparkling River (hncp hurdle) H3+G3 (7/1)  WON 7/1>11/4 

 

KEY:

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 20 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

Bet of The Day (test, 3/10,3p… +15 points)…

4.20 – Sparkling River – 1 point win – 7/1 (WH/BV) 13/2 (general) WON 7/1>11/4 

This one looks the most interesting to me here and is just about worth a go at the price I think. She ticks a few boxes… lightly raced over hurdles, and won her handicap hurdle debut here three starts ago under Dickie, in soft, over 2 furlongs shorter. She won fairly well there – beating a certain Early Retirement into second (won for us on Monday at Southwell) and the third since won also. Some substance to that C5 then, if only minor. She then raced at Hereford, hanging badly to the left- and it is possibly that she just prefers this way round. In any case I think we will get to a point in future where you can forgive any horse a poor run on ‘Hereford Heavy’- looks like it can get very very testing there. She ran ok still. Ludlow was a C3 over 24f, Rh again- that run was just a tad too poor for my liking and maybe that is just as good as she is. But, at least she drops in trip here, and class. She returns to a course she has won at, and Johnson has been booked for the ride. Oliver’s horses are going ok, they are not out of form anyway. The final positive is pace- I think there is a chance Dickie will be aggressive, as he likes to be, and she should be able to dictate from the front. Or be very close anyway. She handles soft and there isn’t an excuse for a good run today. If she gets beat then so be it, but at least until they turn for home we may be on the edge of our seats.

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of the rest.. well ‘That’s Gonna Sting’ is an RP 10/1+ qualifier, and I may place that bet at BFSP personally, rather than take a price, as he may well drift. (Hmm, appears he is being backed!) I learnt long ago- well in January, not to double guess these ratings pointers 10/1+ shots- some win that can leave you scratching your head- there are a few things that put me off this one, inc soft being an unknown (and they are expecting showers throughout the day- which is good news for my free tip on Emma Soda) – But Scott does have a good record with handicap hurdlers returning after breaks of 60+ days and he is in some form at least. I won’t say he can’t win and will just ‘go with the system’ – that is the point, to take away my subjective meddling/over-thinking!

Cody Wyoming may drift to 11.00+ on BFSP and therefore become a ‘RP 10/1+’ qualifier, so set that price and forget about it if you follow that strategy. That looks an open enough race also but clearly he has the odd question now.

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3.Any general messages/updates etc

New Members: You should have received a welcome email from me, but if not, you can read it HERE>>>

 

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THE FLAT! 

Well the flat season will soon be fast upon us. Below is a link to a ‘test profile’ for Beverley, focusing on handicaps- with one angle for 1st time out 2 year olds. For the micro systems I have kept to the same format as with the jumps guide as I see no reason not to.

For the ‘general race types’ section I have tried to find a max of 3 trainers for each section. For the micro systems I just want one trainer. I have gone through those selected stats to ensure a decent enough spread from 2014-, and to ensure the stats are not down to one horse etc.

Anyway, your thoughts/recommendations are welcome. All stats 2014-

TTP: FLAT 2017  – TEST EXAMPLE HERE>>>

 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

7 Comments

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  • Josh, some nice stats for the 3 & 4 year olds thanks.
    With regards to 2 year olds at Beverley I have 2 things in mind that would say be very weary of the 2 from 6 stat of M. Dods. Memory seems to be telling me:- 1. Beverly is a difficult track where experience counts so horses with a run fair better ( and yet at the beginning of the season you will have maidens with all unraced). 2. The draw at Beverley over 5f can be key with low being the place to be these days specially when you have 11 runners +.
    I note however that Dods likes to send his good ones there Easton Angel being one, though that was his second run and had the 1 stall.

    Gary 22/03/17 7:42 AM Reply


    • Hi Gary,
      I understand what you are saying…and in a way you have used the guide for it’s purpose there- to interpret the base stats and add your own thoughts to the pot! The fact I could only find him worthy of note for 1st time out 2 year olds would support your case that it is tricky for first time starters- but he doesn’t send many clearly, and it may pay to take note if/when he does. It may not of course.

      I want the guide to be as simple as possible.

      I pondered what to do with maidens/2 years olds, but think just finding the ‘best’ trainer for 1st time out 2 year olds is probably the way forward. The main focus as always will be in the handicaps and i think the 3yo+ 4yo+ split is interesting, and worthwhile- and actually adds a level of info you may not find easily elsewhere with just top level ‘handicap’ stats.

      Josh 22/03/17 8:00 AM Reply


  • Josh agree with what your thoughts. On the 2 year old maidens at the start of the season, one problem is how training is evolving. 2 years ago if you had backed all R.Fahy’s 2 year olds first time out you would have made a good profit last year due to a change in type of 2 year olds he had you would have took a big loss.
    One thing I am sure would be profitable if you can get a list of, would be to follow horses bought from the breeze up sales. I noticed how well Simon Crisford for one does with these. I feel these should be flagged in a similar way to headgear.

    Gary 22/03/17 9:14 AM Reply


  • hi josh
    when will the full flat stat pack be released
    thanks
    and will the first big hcp be the lincoln

    russ 22/03/17 11:00 AM Reply


    • Hi Russ,

      Not sure as yet! I am working on it now, takes up to 45 mins per track, x 30 odd or whatever it is. At the latest I try and get it out the week after Aintree. There is a chance I can get it done by the end of next week.

      In terms of big handicaps – again, nothing set in stone on that front. When there is a big 5-7f handicap on a Saturday I am to get a full trends profile + shortlist up for those, on the Thursday/Friday.

      So, TBC! But soon enough.

      Josh

      Josh 22/03/17 11:08 AM Reply


  • Sparkling River won well Josh…..Good BOTD…

    Cheers.

    Tony Mc.

    tonymc 22/03/17 5:10 PM Reply


    • Indeed, lessened the blow of Emma Soda pulling up!!

      Josh 22/03/17 5:13 PM Reply


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