TTP Jumps Notes: 21/03/17 (complete)

NEW Membership Options are live…

This for for those of you who joined for the Festival week (think the membership runs out today or tomorrow) and may wish to stay around for a little while longer. My New Membership Offer is now up and running… includes a 21 day free trial.

If you wish to give that a try you can do so HERE>>>

Further details on what you get as part of that package can be found HERE>>>

(and if not, no worries – there will be plenty of free posts etc, and with any luck I will see you again next March) 

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

3.Any general messages/updates etc

 

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers 

 

EXETER

3.05 – Martabot (hncp hurdle) H1 11/2 UP 9/1 

4.15 – Court By Surprise (hncp chase) G3 30 10/1

5.25 –

Motueka (NHF) 8/1 UP

Whitley Neill (NHF) 20/1 UP

 

WETHERBY 

3.25 – Sigurd (hncp hurdle) 5/1 UP

4.00 –

Banny’s Lad (all hncp) H1 7/1

Nightline (hncp chase) 8/1 UP

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KEY:(applicable across the blog) 

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 20 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

An easy winner on Monday and every little helps…Bet of The Day: Test… (3/10,3p = +15 points) (3/5 last 5 bets)

Bet of The Day:

4.15 Exeter- Court By Surprise – 1 point win – 10/1 (general) NR

As you know I put up a generally available price for ‘RP 10/1+’ selections in the morning, around 8am on weekdays. I know many of you will take a check in the evening and if you do so as I write, Court By Surprise will be a 10/1+ qualifier. Indeed I think I may have missed the odd ‘RP 10/1+’ winner that was 8s< in the morning but 10s+ the evening before. That’s how it goes, these things even themselves out and I need to be consistent for results recording purposes.

Anyway… the horse… well he is a 12 year old and I probably wouldn’t want a single figure price on him but a case can be made in a race where everything has some sort of question. I think if he repeats that 2nd behind Loose Chips at Sandown earlier in the season, he goes very close here. That is an if,but we get a price. I think you could make some sort of legitimate excuse for every run since and his mark has at least dropped a fair way. This is also a drop in class. He is a CD winner, 1/1 at the track and it looks like he may enjoy these stiff RH tracks these days. There is a bit of cut in the ground also and I just thought if he ran one of his better races, he would be in with a chance. I will pay to find out. He usually peaks Oct-Dec so it may be he has gone of the boil,we shall see. He should race prominently and Lavelle is in some form, 4/18,6p in the last 30 days. Tom Scudamore rides for the first time which is of some interest I thought.

Kap Jazz is probably the most likely winner, if he stays. I think he probably will but around here, if they go a decent pace, I wouldn’t want to take his price to find out. He is probably a decent EW bet but I rarely venture EW unless 4 places+/the odds are too tempting. He will do.

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Others…

Not much else jumping out at me personally.. Banny’s Lad could be a candidate for setting the 11.00 min BFSP on Betfair, in case he drifts out to that price or bigger come the off, as he is a ratings pointer horse. On morning prices as above – 7/1- he does not currently qualify but will if his BFSP is 11.00 or bigger. Martabot would have to drift some to hit that price but you never know!

Whitley Neill – is the only potential ‘monster’ on the day, 18/1+.. and drift probably isn’t a great sign but it is only his second start, the hood if off, better ground here etc. Pipe only 5/59,16p with second time career starters in the last 2 years… and his NHF runners sent off bigger than 8/1 are 3/89,13p through his whole training career. They are hard to find, but the odd one does go in at least! My standard ‘TTP’ 1 point is £10 at the moment, and personally he is the kind of horse I may throw £2 at , BFSP, for example- were some of the supporting stats a tad stronger, maybe a bit more. Lodged in my mind is Micky Hammonds NHF winner for us, 25/1 ISP, 50/1 BFSP… although that was on a Saturday!

That will be all for today.

 

 

3.Any general messages/updates etc

Just to note I will be updating results asap, with a usual review etc come the end of the month.

I have looked at the #1 advised strategy : ‘The Ratings Pointers 10/1+’ approach.

So far in March up to today they are 4/16 = +43.45 BFSP.

In 2017 to date: 70 bets / 11 wins / 16% win SR / +86.5 BFSP (or + £432.50 to £5 win bets)  

If yo do nothing else with the content on these pages that is the one ‘systematic’ approach to follow. It has the highest ROI at the moment of any approach at 124%.  We shall see how they do on the flat but making 300 odd points a year from around 1 bet a day would be enjoyable 🙂

Given the number of bets and it’s developing consistency it should also be the least stressful approach, with losing runs less severe than other strategies. There have been a few losing runs of 10-15 I think but it never takes many winners to eradicate those memories.

From this foundation you can play around with the rest of the content – Saturdays, Geegeez Top Rated , any other 10/1+ shots, or indeed any other qualifiers you may fancy when using your own approach.

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NEW! something else to read while sipping a hot beverage…

MONTHLY RESEARCH ARTICLE FOR MARCH: READ HERE>>>

(includes a look at some trainers to keep an eye on in April and the use of headgear for the second time on a horse…)

 

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Nothing more to add today, post complete.

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

9 Comments

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  • hi Josh just a quick question, is it alright to share your March research article or is it for members only?

    martin whittle 21/03/17 6:43 AM Reply


    • Hi Martin, afraid that is for Members Only.. the main reason, other than it being a members only perk/the time it takes etc, is that I write this article for The Betting Insiders Club and it forms part of their monthly magazine that they post out to their memebers- it is with their permission that they allow me to share with my own members club- in a sense i suppose it isn’t mine to share anywhere else. I would still write a similar article for my own members club if/when I no longer contribute to their mag but for now it kills two birds with one stone 🙂

      Josh

      Josh 21/03/17 7:52 AM Reply


      • thanks for the quick reply Josh, it was just a mate who’s into his stats who would have found it interesting, i keep telling him to join but he’s a tightarse 🙂

        martin whittle 21/03/17 8:12 AM Reply


        • Into his stats and hasn’t joined, what is this??! 🙂 Even gets a 21 day free trial…of which he can access those particular reports. Really should think of it as an investment – esp given say £2 bets to BFSP on the ‘RP 10/1+’ horses has paid for annual subs already, and left a bit over for a few pints.

          Josh 21/03/17 8:14 AM Reply


  • Morning josh,really impressed with the work you put in,,just wondering if the April systems selections will be posted in the members area,keep up the good work cheers .

    michael murphy 21/03/17 8:44 AM Reply


    • Hi Michael, thanks for your comment…

      that is a good question.. I am in pondering mode on that front – I will definitely put the ‘Hobbs Mico’ selections up (or maybe all of his micros)- no excuse not to put up his main system qualifiers. I won’t commit to highlighting any of the others- mainly as I have no space in my two HRB accounts, and doing it ‘manually’ isn’t something I wish to do. I suspect members would rather I spend my time on ‘bet of the day’ /big race trends/April+Punchy reports etc etc. Well, I would anyway 🙂

      Of course any other HRB users can add in their own systems and any members can always post selections etc in the comments.

      I do very much see them as ‘starting points’ rather than systems to be dogmatic about- and checking current trainer form is important -i have had mixed success on the ‘monthly trainers’ front, from a systematic point of view.

      So, a bit of fence sitting there! I will happily post the main hobbs angle, but do not plan to post any others.
      Josh

      Josh 21/03/17 8:54 AM Reply


  • No problem.

    michael murphy 21/03/17 9:22 AM Reply


  • I’ve been waiting to see Tom Lacey’s Pinnacle Peter over fences since seeing the horse in the flesh at Towcester a few starts ago. Put into my tracker straight away before that race even started as a big horse who visually looks made for chasing.

    First time headgear on chase debut, Scudamore up, won a point over 3m, all of which are interesting points, only question mark is over the ground as I remarked that he looked like he wouldn’t mind a bit of a slog. However, thats a question mark, rather than a negative and 12/1 is more than fair to find out.

    Matt Johnson 21/03/17 11:17 AM Reply


    • Good spot Matt. FWIW…..comment from Lacey on today’s race….”Peter is running over fences. He should get more of a chance over fences, whether or not he is yet strong enough to get 3 miles around Exeter is debatable. He’s still raw and has a huge frame to grow into”

      Don’t let that put you off necessarily, trainers do get it wrong + it may be he’s better than the others even at this stage.

      But if it doesn’t go right today it sounds like PP is definitely worth keeping an eye on in future.

      Stephen Cross 21/03/17 12:20 PM Reply


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