TTP Jumps Notes: 20/03/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

3.Any general messages/updates etc

 

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers 

Note: There are NO ratings pointers for any of the qualifiers below. (none top rated/top 3)

 

SOUTHWELL

3.40 –

Xhale (all hncps +hncp hurdle) 14,30 11/1 UP (one paced from what i saw, looks in need of a big step up in trip – of just devoid of much ability)

Dragon De La Tour (micro runs this season) (late addition,apols) 7/1 UP

4.10 – Early Retirement (all hncps+ hncps hurdle+micro distance) 14,30 11/2 WON 4/1 (after R4)

4.40 – No No Legend (NHF) 4/1 UP

 

TAUNTON

3.20 – Jaboltiski (hncp chase) 8/1 UP

3.50 – Mr Kit Cat (all hncps + hncp hurdle) 16/1 UP

4.20 –

Zama Zama (all hncps) 14/1 UP

Moorland’s Jack (TJC) 30 9/2 UP

4.50 – Plan Again (all hncps) 14 9/1  2nd 20/1 (decent run, looked like he stayed- monster lay off. Suspect trainer may keep running him here until he wins! Hopefully he doesn’t bounce NTO but something to work with) 

 

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

Bet of The Day: Test… (2/9,2p = +11 points)

I will revive my Bet of The Day Test , now that the Festival is over. I will have a look through those above and see if anything jumps out at me….

4.10 Southwell- Early Retirement – 1 point win – 6/1 (WH/BV) 11/2 (general) WON 4/1

No ratings pointers today, so no bets for any systematic ‘RP 10/1+’ followers but on what looks a quiet day for me personally I do want to have a go at this Bailey runner, who looks the most likely winner from her two- famous last words. This is only his 3rd handicap hurdle start and he will improve at some point. Two starts ago he ran very well on handicap debut, coming second at 20/1. The horse behind him has since won and although a weak race, as this is, at least some substance there. The winner since placed again also. Next time he tried Towcester in heavy ground, tiring from about three out having been up there most of the way. I suspect those conditions stretched him a tad. An easier track here and better ground should help. They are due some rain which makes the card tricky as it could turn this soft- which would be fine for him. Sean Bowen rides- and that looks to be a developing relationship given they are now 2/4,2p in handicaps. Maybe he is available more than Harry Skelton- in any case they are two jockeys she likes to call on. So, the fact he is on is a positive. The trainer is also in great form still- 3/8,4p in the last 14 days. Finally – pace- Bowen can be aggressive which I like and there is a chance he tried to make all or in any case should be up there in the first few- which is where you want to be around here I think – very hard to come from the back unless they go far too hard.

So, I think 6/1, 11/2 looks decent in this poor race where most have some sort of question. I would hope that he is backed but we shall see.

Of the others.. well don’t let me put you off, this is a ‘subjective’ section after all and any followers of all 10/1+ shots may have a go at some of those. None of them were in the young/unexposed/doing something different category which I like to focus on really. Mr Kit Cat is interesting but you can make a better case for every other runner in that race for me- but the market may guide..

As it could do for Bailey’s other runner- Xhale- he is lightly raced, trainer/jockey 0/5,1p, and he steps up in class having ran ok in a C5 LTO. I was struggling to see why he would suddenly improve enough to take a C4. But, he has time on his side. If the money comes I may perk up, it can speak for this yard.

So, they are my thoughts, for what they are worth.

 

 

3.Any general messages/updates etc

NEW! Post..about future of Members Club/plans for The Flat/Price Changes: READ HERE>>>

 

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KEY:(applicable across the blog) 

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 20 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

 

 

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CAN I DO BETTER/ARE YOU CONFUSED?….

Just a reminder that please please if you have any questions about the content or how to approach it get in touch- post a comment or email me info@racingtoprofit.co.uk

I am in the middle of a email discussion with one subscriber about various things relating to the content on this blog, both paid and free – but they made a valid point about ‘less is more’ – and that maybe the way I approach delivering information/reviewing results etc can be confusing.

I will blame my liking for a self-deprecating, lighthearted, conversational tone. But, I will try and improve and go for a ‘less is more’ approach, especially when delivering factual information/discussing strategies etc. Maybe I use too many words!

I find it very frustrating when members cannot get the best out of content as I see that as a failure on my part.

I think this must be one of the most profitable services around, certainly in the context of the fees, and I hate the thought that members are not getting the best out of it, especially now that we have a few ‘recommended strategies’.

Always room for improvement as they say.

Good luck today.

Josh

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

5 Comments

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  • Hi Josh,
    Lots to cheer about this past week thanks to your fine efforts. Was already on Spud but had an extra nibble on the high st after you posted as a tip. Capped the week off and would have been rude not to get pissed courtesy of the bookies.

    After falling at the 1st t’other day putting ttp’s up I thought I’d tentatively add an extra in the 3.40…..Dragon de la tour…….micro runs

    Once again many thanks for a most enjoyable week.
    Mike

    titus_a_duxass 19/03/17 7:31 PM Reply


    • Cheers Mike, yep a fine week, one to savour and enjoy, they don’t come around like that too often 🙂

      Ah yes, so he does – back the game strongly there!! Corrected now, thanks.

      Josh

      Josh 19/03/17 9:05 PM Reply


  • A long distance traveller:

    South. 3:40 – Camron De Chaillac 6/1 (18/1 max)

    4 wins from 12 runners
    LSP -0.65 pts @ SP

    Chris R.

    Chris 20/03/17 8:06 AM Reply


  • just want to add my praise to all the others for your hard work on the blog.
    thanks to the likes of presenting percy had a profitable Cheltenham and any profit at this most difficult meeting to be savoured. spud on saturday topped the week off perfectly!
    keep up the good work and let’s do more bookie bashing

    fergus2013 20/03/17 1:47 PM Reply


    • Thanks Fergus, much appreciated- good to hear you had an enjoyable and entertaining week- that’s what it’s all about. I don’t think weeks get too much better on the punting front but will try my best to repeat it again before next March 🙂 In the meantime we have the tried and tested stats above to keep us ticking along.

      Josh 20/03/17 3:23 PM Reply


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