TTP Jumps Notes: SAT 18/03/17 (complete)

 

VERY IMPORTANT: If you are still unsure about how to approach the content on these posts, please read the last results update HERE>>> which touches on the approach and some advised strategies, which include…

  • The Ratings Pointers (section 1)- those horses 10/1+ in the morning (price i put next to horse in section 2) and/or sent off 11.00 + on BetfairSP (you can set and forget with this, and if a horse drifts and hits it, you bet will be placed) This is the #1 advised strategy
  • SATURDAYS- that’s today! Have had a tendency to be very profitable just backing the lot,but that can be too many bets, so best focus on bigger priced ones I think, definitely 10/1+ all qualifiers (section 2- especially any at big big prices, 20s+) , maybe even 8s+ . 
  • Shorter priced selections, those under 10s, generally pay for a lot of losers/break even/loss. The profit is made with bigger priced selections. 
  • Ratings Pointers- It looks like the most successful ratings pointers, if you just want to focus on one… is Geegeez Speed Top Rated. 4 of interest there today.

 

**

1.The Ratings Pointers

2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

4.Any general messages/updates etc

**

One of ‘those’ Saturday’s (shed load of qualifiers) …some tasty prices around, inc RP Pointers… how exciting… (health warning…we have had ‘Saturday Blowouts’ before, it does happen…)

 

1.The Ratings Pointers

HorseRaceBase

Top Rated

3.50 Kemp- Bugsie Malone

4.00 Font – City Supreme

4.20 Newc – Halcyon Days

 

Top 3

2.40 Kemp – Divine Spear

3.15 Kemp- Max Ward / Roman De Senam

5.00 Kemp – Colonial Dreams

2.15 Font – Bertenbar 

2.50 Font – Midnight Tune

3.00 Uttox – De Vous A Moi

5.50 Font – Victarion

 

Geegeez Speed

Top Rated

3.15 Kemp- Monbeg Gold

2.15 Font- Bertenbar 

2.50 Font- Midnight Tune 

3.10 Newc – Dutch Canyon

4.45 Uttox – Dartford Warbler (late addition) 

Top 3

4.00 Font – City Supreme

 

 

2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

KEMPTON

2.40

Divine Spear (all hncps + hncp h + micro TJC) 8/1 2nd

Sumkindofking (micro class) 20/1 UP

Brio Conti (micro going) 13/2 WON 8/1

3.15

Max Ward (micro class) 5/1 WON 9/2

Monbeg Gold (micro distance) 8/1 UP

Romain De Senam (micro going) 10/3 UP

3.50 – Bugsie Malone (hncp chase) 5/2 WON 7/4

5.00

Colonial Dreams (NHF) 8/1 2nd 14/1

Dollnamix (NHF) 14,30 14/1 UP

Rebel Commander (NHF) 9/2 UP

Vision D’Auteuil (NHF)  14,30 10/1 Up

 

FONTWELL

2.15 – Bertenbar (hncp chase) 5/2 WON 5/2

2.50 – Midnight Tune (all hncps)  30 6/4 2nd 

4.00- City Supreme (all hncps + hncp chase) 30 7/4 UP

 

UTTOXETER

Update: Officially SOFT at Uttox, not Good to Soft, which means some Sue Smith horses to add…

3.00- De Vous A Moi (hncp hurdle+ micro going)  14,30  16/1 UP

3.35-

Warrantor (all hncps) 20/1 3rd 

Gervrey Chambertain (hncp chase) 12/1 UP

Out Sam (all hncps) 16/1 UP

Firebird Flyer (micro runs this season) 18/1 UP

Blakemount (micro going) UP

4.45 – Dartford Warbler (micro going)  UP

5.50

Portrush Ted (NHF) 11/8 WON 11/4

Victarion (NHF) 7/1 2nd 4/1

 

NEWCASTLE

3.10 – Dutch Canyon (hncp chase)  14,30 10/1 NR

4.20 – Halcyon Days 7/2 WON 4/1

 

3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

Not much to add on a Saturday really! The RPs will point the way, and I have overthought big priced winners on a Saturday before. I don’t fancy any in the 3.35 Uttoxeter though, and if one of them beats me then so be it! I will have to stomach that. None are ratings pointers at least. Plenty of shorter priced ones which I will personally leave. Hopefully a few winners dotted around..

Very interested to see how Monbeg Gold / De Vous A Moi / Dutch Canyon  get on…

If they have 10/1 or bigger next to their name in section 2 they qualify for the 10/1+ approach, either all 10/1+ shots or the ‘RP 10/1+’ strategy. Even if when you go to look they have been backed, such as Ducth Canyon.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

no more to add.

***

 

KEY:(applicable across the blog) 

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 20 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

NOTE: In the ratings pointers above, BOLD indicates a ‘double qualifier,against both ratings’ in RED is a ‘double top rated qualifier

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

13 Comments

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  • Hi Josh, Thanks for your help with picking selections during the festival. The tips were great, your approach really paid off. I also, had some success with the 1st time headgear angle, with some good placers such as Missed Approach. I also follow the ratings and Bescott Springs was a nice one yesterday. I have been backing them all ,rather than the 10/1+ angle and am up around 50 points since we started.
    Keep up the good work!
    Mind you, my wife picked the best winner of all in Flying Tiger! Pin Stickers can still rule !!
    P.S. What are your plans for the forthcoming Flat season?

    Steve Boyd 17/03/17 7:10 PM Reply


    • Hi Steve,

      Glad you had a good week.. please never mention Flying Tiger every again haha- that horse will be keeping me restless until I tip another 33/1 handicap hurdle winner. Still can’t believe I left him. Good job on the headgear front, that found a few decent placed horses, and nearly the winner of the Gold Cup! The Irish Class droppers did well also I think, well 2x 25/1 winners on final day – inc ours, didn’t back Arctic Fire mind!

      TTP… selections above… I would advise looking at the results link at top of page- just backing everything in section 2 is profitable and if that is how you want to go then that is up to you. Less stressful and more profitable approaches do exist, as discussed.

      The Flat… I will start planning/plotting/researching next week..

      There will be a flat stats guide, similar to the jumps, same ratings approach etc. I just need to play around with how comprehensive that is. But there will be something there- the ‘bread and butter’

      I will also have more focus on ‘big meeting’ trainer notes/angles – there are many more big flat meetings throughout the year and we dabbled with that last year- that is more information to use as you please- we will see how that does- but many creatures of habit on that front.

      There will also be stats/trends for any big handicaps 5f-7f and we shall see if any stats shortlists have success!! My flat ‘tipping’ was mixed last year and the stats will very much be the driver. I have even more to improve on the flat side than the jumps, in terms of ‘attacking races cold’ and even when I have stats help.

      That will be the core- I do want to ensure I don’t burn out for the start of the jumps season. And a holiday would be nice where I don’t have to look at the blog at all for a week or 2! Not sure how we get around that.

      Josh

      Josh 18/03/17 10:06 AM Reply


      • I’d recommend taking a holiday the last week September first week October flop and relax for a fortnight and then you have a week to get ready and focussed for the Chepstow meeting that for me defines the start of the jumping season

        finalflight 18/03/17 11:28 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh

    I’ve been using Betfair Exchange for all the members club bets and the plan has always been to start small and build the bets as the bank grows. I remember a few weeks ago you suggested a 200 point bank if just backing everything over 11 but with the recent analysis of the different approaches for which selections to back I wonder what your thoughts are now? My personal preference is covering the ratings pointers 11+.

    Jamie 17/03/17 10:30 PM Reply


    • To get 7/1 is also not bad

      Pab 17/03/17 11:30 PM Reply


    • Hi Jamie,

      With the Ratings Pointers 10/1+ (or 11.00 + on betfair) a 100 point bank should be more than sufficient – standard losing runs of 8-15 i think, and they are not as severe as just backing all 10/1+

      There are some further thoughts in the link at the top of this post.

      Backing all 10/1+ in section 2 won 158 points in jan, but then lost 70 off in Feb. I suppose 200 points was extra cautious on the fear/possibility, that you may have 2 months like that back to back. March has been good on that front to date but still.

      Always best to start of small and build up.

      I would always look at any horse in section 2 that is a monster price, 20s+, they are just worth backing as enough go in , or have done since Oct, to make them very profitable- And all Saturday 10/1+ are worth a look.

      Hope that may help. Josh

      Josh 18/03/17 10:09 AM Reply


  • c’mon Josh get yer finger out anyone would think you’ve had a busy week and deserve a lay in 🙂 thanks for all your hard work over the festival. i am really enjoying my time here and it has rekindled my passion for all this, it’s so nice to find a great bunch of people sharing their thoughts, no backbiting, no nastiness, very refreshing to say the least.
    by the way bank has now trebled so am considering increasing stakes what do you think?

    martin whittle 18/03/17 6:10 AM Reply


    • Hi Martin.. I was planning on a lie in today but appear to have woke up naturally at 6 (a habit may have formed this week!) in fear that I woudn’t get everything done- good job I did really! Lay in tomorrow with any luck.

      If you bank has trebled I think you could increase stakes- esp ratings pointers 10/1+… the methodology behind those ratings isn’t changing and they work. I see no reason why they shouldn’t continue.
      Plenty of time to build up, don’t go mad but you can increase I would have thought- maybe double? Esp if trebles. Not sure.

      Also some caution- that should be fine until end of main jumps season- the Flat is an unknown- the thinking behind the stats will be similar, and we will have the ratings again- maybe a case of re-setting for the flat and we will see how we get on.

      As long as we have horse racing, I will be here. Plenty of time to build up etc. Patience always key.
      Josh

      Josh 18/03/17 10:13 AM Reply


      • nice little profit of 18pts today from members page, nearly 70pts from free page/my selections.
        have just done the books and am up 548.3 pts since joining, stupidly i have mixed my banks over Cheltenham trying to get best offers/prices but as far as i can work out members page qualifiers are up approx 270pts.

        martin whittle 18/03/17 6:38 PM Reply


  • Cheers Josh lad, with your tips for Cheltenham and a few of my own +87 points for the 4 days, not bad to say i was still in hospital lol. I was discharged yesterday morning and all is well with me, and I was just pleased to watch the gold cup at home, happy days

    Well done Josh

    Gavin 18/03/17 11:04 AM Reply


    • Glad to see you on your feet Gavin….Take care lad.

      Tony Mc.

      tonymc 18/03/17 12:22 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh, circumstances caused me to miss day 1…yes I know, I missed the winners…..day 2/3/4…gave me 2 winners and some placed but never really recovered from missing the 1st day.
    My own ratings down to 6th in ranking would have given me a good + but of course I got faint hearted etc. lol
    I lost a few points but all will be well. Wow you put a mega stint in there lad….Have a good rest and a few large. Then up for the next battle ahead.

    BOL all. Tony Mc.

    tonymc 18/03/17 12:21 PM Reply


    • Hi Tony, ah, my tips were still +20 points days 2 onwards I think, +23 points after day 1. But, at least you had some winners to cheer- it is a mentally draining week, always things we could have done better – including losing out bottle at times!
      Always looking forward to the next battle!
      Best
      Josh

      Josh 18/03/17 12:29 PM Reply


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