DAILY POST: SAT 18/03/17 (complete)

Blimey. That was fun..

That is my best Festival ever I think, good timing 🙂 My confidence in that approach has grown over time and I am happy with how it is working, especially the shortlisting and the stats that I focus on- which to be blunt I don’t think many others do. ‘Stats are Stats’. Well. No, they are not. Anyway, many ways to skin a cat in this great game of ours but I will stick to what has worked so far. As always not leaving winners behind on a shortlist is something to work on. I think whenever the stats point to 4 or fewer horses, price allowing, it is probably best to trust the stats and back them all, well esp when 16s+, or even 33s!

I hope you had a great week, whether following the tips and/or picking winners on shortlists etc. The final tally, at advised prices…

32 bets / 4 wins / 13 places (inc wins) / +43 points 

Winners priced 16/1, 12/1, 11/1, 25/1 

With a slightly clearer mind that could have been +76 points, but we can’t be greedy. (and just over +100 BFSP maybe)

I hope you have had a great week and I helped make it an enjoyable one.

And of course you may have backed two tasty winners in the regular, bread and butter, Members Posts at 16/1>11//4 and 19.00 BFSP. A good week all round.

Moving on…

**

 

TIPS

3.35 Uttoxeter: Midlands National

SPOOKY DOOKY –1 point EW 12/1 UP (travelled well,a race for true grinders,tacky/holding ground,not sure handled/stayed)

COGRY – 1 point win – 16/1 UP

CHASE THE SPUD – 1 point win – 25/1 (PP) 20/1 (gen) WON 22/1>11/1 (declared 22s given 25s only 1 bookie,hope you nabbed it mind!)

(4 points bet)

+19 points on race… +62 point week…

**

I just had a look at the top level profile which has certain pointers, for last 18 renewals…

  • 18/18 Age 6-9 (0/91,16 places older than this)
  • 18/18 carried 11-6 or less (0/30,4p carried more)

Those two stats alone leave us with 8: Blakemount / Out Sam / Mysteree / Warrantor / Cogry / Spookydooky / Court Frontier / Chase The Spud

**

I do like this race.. not so much last year, but in 2015 it saved the Festival.. well, i only lost 7 points on the week (my approach is much improved since then,as is my general ability, I think..well, at times…) but good old Goonyella romped to victory at 12s, or 9s, I forget which. Let’s see if we can find the winner again…

 

Spooky Dooky… I don’t know how I cannot back him at a double figure price with 4 places to play with.  He picks himself I think.  He was 4th in this last year, off 141 and with 11-8 on his back. With the jockey claim he now carries 10-10 and is rated 131. That is a massive difference over this trip and this year, as below, he qualifies on the two main stats from first run through. He stays well and also comes here in form on the back of that Exeter run LTO, which was decent. I had to have a go didn’t I? Yes.

 

Cogry… Oh god. I must have had a good week, on the happy pills no doubt. Yep, I have gone there. My ultimate chasing cliff horse. I am lying impaled, at the bottom, of said cliff… now just for the sea to carry me away! I can’t leave him at 16s here given he was ahead of Spooky Dooky in this last year and although there is a large ratings swing, he at least has more chase experience now. I found it fascinating that they remove the Cheekpieces here- having been on for quite a few runs now. That may freshen him up, or make him worse! I was surprised he completed at Sandown LTO and he ran well over a trip probably too short. He did try to take one fence with him I think, with the usual scrappy errors. But he ran on well into third. He ran well in this last year and Twister has a decent record in the race. I don’t know if his yard is out of form or not but I won’t overthink at this price. They should go a pace he is more comfortable with here and IF, it is a massive if, he has a clear round, I can’t see him being far away. This could be his race. And given he comes here in form, there is a headgear change (removed), conditions look ideal, he has previous form in the race- well then it really should be last chance. At least I am getting a price on him this time and not taking 8s<. We shall see. He fits the main stats pointers and will do. 

Chase The Spud.. His price seems a bit big here, way too big actually. The rain has arrived for him- last night it was good to soft and I wondered if it may happen too quickly for him, even over this far. His run at Haydock behind Mysteree was decent and on that alone his price should be closer to his here. He relishes the mud and has just looked like a plodder- which in the latter stages is what you want here. I just want to see how he goes over this sort of distance. He was a PU in the Welsh National but it is safe to say this is no Welsh National field and he should appreciate this pace more. He is tricky, and a bit in and out, which is why you want  a price. But, he rarely gives up and throws in the towel and will keep going.  He doesn’t give up, usually. So, unless he doesn’t jump/falls/BD, he should get the heart racing in the closing stages/as they turn for home. I think there is a lot to like about his chances in the context of his price and I am more than comfortable having a stab. He ran ok at Carlisle but was a bit keen early and never going that well- maybe it happened too quickly or he had a poor trip up. But he does have 11lb actual weight less on his back here, which will help in conditions. A lively outsider for me. 

PACE.. This race isn’t blessed with front runners on paper and I am rather hoping they try and make all on Cogry- probably the best chance of him completing – i remember when I tipped him at Cheltenham this season when it went soft- he was BD as they were about to head out for the final circuit. That day he was travelling well on the front end and jumping well. They should be aggressive, give him daylight, and a chance. Chase The Spud can be up there also. Hopefully both are front rank. Spooky will probably be further back and they will all need some luck in running.

Of the rest… well I hope nothing else on the shortlist wins! Blakemount – I think is a doubtful stayer over this far, not convinced. I could be wrong- questioning a Sue Smith chaser’s stamina can get you into trouble, as it has done with me and this one before. But, the market can guide with hers, not too much wins over 12s/14s I don’t think. We shall see. Out Sam – i want to see him run better in a big field chase really. He may relish this test but I wanted those onside I was sure would see out the trip- no idea with him but the field size is the main concern. Connections have always liked him and if he ran up to their expectations of him as a chaser, he would go close- if staying. And jumping. And not shitting himself when surrounded by horses 🙂 Warrantor- not convinced. The form of that Cheltenham second hasn’t worked out really and again these conditions/stamina is an unknown. Two runners from the trainer suggests that maybe he is just throwing darts. But they are on the shortlist. Court Frontier- he has won a few on the bounce now and maybe he will progress again, but was a single figure price and that last race was really poor. Happy to take on. Mysteree can take this but had a hard race LTO, and two of his last three have been slogs- i will applaud if he takes this as it would show some bravery/toughness. At a single figure price I can take him on and sleep tonight.

Clearly something not on the shortlist may win. Having looked through I don’t really fancy much else anyway, and I don’t want to be on an older horse, or one with a big weight. A few seem to want better ground also.. I suppose Gevrey Chambertain is worth mentioning given Pipe’s record in the race…but he is in and out and stamina an unknown.. french breds are 0/24,3p in the race also- small numbers but gives me some comfort! He may run well, he does have class, somewhere.

 

That’t the lot on that front I think. My positive, bullish mindset appears to make them run well- and with that in mind-  I think we have the winner!! (that doesn’t mean you bet more than advised!) Good luck.

 

 

MICRO ANGLES/SYSTEMS

Kerry Lee Chasers (12/1<)

2.15 Font – Mr Bachster UP

3.35 Uttox – Alfie Spinner DNQ

 

Saturday TJC (14/1<)

2.25 Uttox- Rock The Kasbah 2nd 7/1

 

Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live Test

2.25 Uttox – Hainan (12/1<) UP

3.35 Uttox – Blakemount (12/1<) DNQ

3.35 Uttox – Alfie Spinner (12/1<) DNQ

4.45 Uttox- Dartford Warbler (12/1<) UP

5.20 Uttox- Gold Bonnie Raine (12/1< guide) UP

 

**

 

TO NOTE: It is probably now time that I added Handicap Hurdle stats/profiles/shortlists to the party, for big Saturday Handicap Hurdles on both sides of the Irish Sea. I will trial this approach for Members Only and see where we go. Exciting more for next season but plenty to get stuck into this year with Aintree/Punchestown/Galway etc.  Any look at Handicap Chases etc will on the whole remain in the Free posts, which resume from Monday.

 

 

***

Midlands National Trends/pointers

TRENDS… 

I just had a look at the top level profile which has certain pointers, for last 18 renewals…

  • 18/18 Age 6-9 (0/91,16 places older than this)
  • 18/18 carried 11-6 or less (0/30,4p carried more)

Those two stats alone leave us with 8: Blakemount / Out Sam / Mysteree / Warrantor / Cogry / Spookydooky / Court Frontier / Chase The Spud

  • 13/18 Top 3 LTO
    • 14/18 Top 5 LTO
    • 4/18 Fell or PU LTO

 

UPDATE: Not too much more to add really, the OR/weight/Age trends hold up over 10 years ,although the places for older horses is ok- so if you like an older one don’t just be put off by the age stat if you like the price. Those that ran at Haydock LTO (0/28,4p) and Newcastle (0/13,1p) not the best records.

 

***

I think that’s the lot. That’s the 6th day in a row I have been up around 6am, now for another coffee and to collapse into my couch. At least I won’t be slaving until 10pm this time. Good job I am like a pig in muck when it comes to this game. And what a game it is.

Have a great day! Good luck with any bets.

Josh

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

32 Comments

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  • Thanks for a Great festival Josh all I need now is for the Blades to be promoted from Div 1 too long in this division 😉

    shek2nd 17/03/17 7:31 PM Reply


    • haha cheers, good luck with that!

      Josh 18/03/17 9:40 AM Reply


  • Great couple of days Josh,Thanks for putting all the work and effort in cheers

    Stephen 17/03/17 9:11 PM Reply


    • thanks Stephen, no problem. That’s what I am here for! Pleased it paid off this time. Hard work does indeed yield results it seems.

      Josh 18/03/17 9:54 AM Reply


  • Thanks for all the hard work you put in the last few weeks josh. With 4 kids I just didn’t have time to look through the handicaps before heading to the festival. Was easily the best year I’ve had there so far with 8 winners over the first 3 days.keep up the good work and hopefully you can go from strength to strength in the future.

    Scott 17/03/17 10:23 PM Reply


    • Cheers Scott, you’re welcome, that is what you pay for! 🙂 Glad you used the content to help you have a great week, that’s what it’s all about.

      Yep, I think the approach is solid- a few things I can learn and take forward, to apply. I will write a review at some point next week… a perfect week would have seen me tipping Un Tempts PT 16s B(shortlist,3 micro angles,ignore weight!), EW, Fred Winter Winner, 33s EW (shortlist of 3,irks me the most) Arctic Fire (class dropper angle) and Rock The World (shortlist, ran well in race last year/Festival form)

      That is as ideal as it would have got – the content, one way or the other, pointed to all of those.

      I will try and take a more ‘EW’ mindset into next year, which may help. And maybe increase the bank. 1 point EW on every tip would have nearly doubled returns I think, given number of placed horses.

      Also that ‘class’ angle- looking at those right at the top of the handicap and seeing if they could just out-class them.

      Then there is the ‘classy novice’ who has been running in deep ground all winter, who could have any amount in hand/linked to previous Festival form- Harrinton’s handicap hurdle winner fits that bill- Stable Plate winner ticked the dossing around in classy novice races, unexposed in handicaps. Those that won handicaps generally won comfortably enough – suggesting that had plenty in hand.

      So,a few things to mull over. But i would have bitten your hand off for 4 winners from 13 races covered pre festival and 43 points, I would take that next year, right now. So I can’t be greedy. Exciting for next year!
      Josh

      Josh 18/03/17 9:51 AM Reply


  • I see Suzy Hainan 2:25 UTTOXETER over 3miles is his distance,he won against Crosspark already,i didnt look card yet,but it is worth to look

    Pab 17/03/17 11:28 PM Reply


  • just looking through the cards and in the 1-30 K Whin Park set a bell ringing in my head was it mentioned here as one to watch out for?

    martin whittle 18/03/17 7:16 AM Reply


    • No idea Martin, I can’t hear that ringing bell in my own head! Not sure.

      Josh 18/03/17 9:52 AM Reply


      • had £2 @27.0 just in case

        martin whittle 18/03/17 11:21 AM Reply


  • A thoroughly enjoyable few days. Cheers josh.

    danwes 18/03/17 8:06 AM Reply


    • Cheers Dan!

      Josh 18/03/17 9:52 AM Reply


  • Thank you to Josh and all you great folk with your comments and tips, much appreciated, great Tipping at Cheltenham, make this a great forum to be involved with.

    Roy Bedford 18/03/17 8:15 AM Reply


    • Cheers Roy, yes a thanks to everyone who posts etc, makes for an even more enjoyable time. Same again next year! Glad you enjoyed yourself.

      Josh 18/03/17 9:54 AM Reply


  • josh , just to advise if you didnt know already, skybet are paying 6 places today for the national

    shaun 18/03/17 8:29 AM Reply


    • Thanks Shaun, I hand’t notice that. I took the 1/4 4 places Bet365… clearly he is nailed on for 5th or 6th now!! GL

      Josh 18/03/17 9:55 AM Reply


  • Always a Difficult Decision as to whether to Go E.W or Not.
    If Price Big enough and only one selection in a Race Tend to Go Eachway. More than that I think win only.
    I Checked my Results over a 6 Month period and Found that Backing EW. Was not profitable for Me When Splitting My Stakes. To the tune of about 800.
    Having said that My Bets Tend to be in the 5/1 ~ 10/1 Range.
    and Just lately it seems to me That in the Bread and Butter Races That if a Horse can’t win
    it is not being ridden for a Place
    Well I’ve noticed that over last 3 Years.
    The late Withdrawals . Even When Bookies Know and still keep up their Pricing and then the inevitable rule 4s Reduction in Places and place Terms . Has become almost the Norm.
    Take a Glance Every Day at 8/9 Runner fields Cut to 6/7 Every day.
    Far too much racing every day anyway. Remember when 2/3 Meetings a Day Max.
    I know I banged on about the above as have others before, but it’s a Disgrace that needs Looking at Closely. R

    Richard 18/03/17 10:36 AM Reply


  • And yet another tipster, free or otherwise, has sent his tips for the Midlands National…..Spookydooky is very unlikely to win with all this weight of hope carried on his shoulders….and I backed him last night so Blakemount & “mission impossible” Cogry are left to carry my pension money….still, I have had an excellent Cheltenham following Josh’s short-lists….but I would still like a winner, or two

    Norman 18/03/17 10:54 AM Reply


  • Keep up the good work Josh. Just need to figure out how to transfer it to the flat now.

    Good day of racing today. Firstly I think Rock the Kasbah (1pt e/w) looks a solid bet in the 14:25 at Uttoxeter. Has been running competitively in top novice company most of the season including only 2lbs behind Politologue and ahead of Royal Vacation off level weights and a number of runs ahead of horses who have done well and are rated higher (Our Kaemper, Theinval, Clan Des Obeaux to name three). His only bad run was at Sandown where he made one bad mistake. Won LTO and the runner up was a easy winner NTO. The handicapper actually dropped him 2 lbs for that win and he is 10lbs lower than his peak hurdle rating. American could easily hose up here but he carries top weight for the 1st time and he wouldn’t be the first Fry hotpot to get turned over this week.

    I spent ages on the Midlands National last night and wasn’t going to have a bet but having slept on it I can’t leave out Houblon Des Obeaux (1pt e/w). Barring LTO where the ground was much too quick he has ran 2 solid races this season in the Welsh National (considering he kept pace with Native River for most of the race I would mark that effort up) and the Classic and in my eye wasn’t given a hard time in either once they knew they weren’t going to win. He finds himself 8lbs lower than that Welsh National run. The Classic (and to a lesser extent the Welsh National) form has worked out very well and he actually had Spooky the best part of 20 lengths behind and is better off at the weights here. This is by far the easiest race he has been in for awhile and he is 1/5, 3p in Listed races. Now since I’ve started writing this I have found out Deutch has been replaced by Bellamy (not sure the reason) which I am not sure what to make of although the extra 3lbs isn’t a plus. The top weight is a slight concern but with Sky offering 6 places I thought it was a good bet and even if he doesnt win should be in the first 4.

    Moving on to Newcastle I thought Sharney Sike (2pt win) in the 14:35 at Newcastle stuck out like a sore thumb on GGG Instant expert and conditions look ideal. Trainer also in great form. Barring his Cheltenham runner which wasn’t fancied, he has had 4 wins and 3 places for his last 7 runners. Money has been coming in all the time. I took the 5s last night but 4/1 still OK.

    Lastly I want to have a bet on El Terremoto (1pt e/w) in the 14:40 at Kempton. Its nice to see Sky keeping up the offers now that the festival is over and paying 6 places on a 19 runner race. This one was fancied for the Betfred Heroes Grade 3 and didn’t quite get the ground or the trip. He drops in class and distance here and gets better ground as well. Before that race he ran in the fog and appeared to finish a close 3rd to Clyne (2nd 1 length behind the TNO getting only 8lbs) and Le Rocher (won a class 2 since and finished 2nd in a Grade 2). The Twister runners have ran OK recently. A decent run is expected.

    Nick Mazur 18/03/17 11:13 AM Reply


    • Cheers Nick… ah yes, the dreaded flat!! I think we will be ok on the stats front- and I will dabble with ‘pace wins the race’ again, on a daily basis. I can’t attack weekday sprint handicaps again, that shot me mentally and I would rather not bother. We will have some Saturday trends/stats for big handicaps, TTP Flat and big meeting trainer notes etc.. so, on the systematic front there will be plenty..after that, who knows…
      Always summer jumping haha

      Josh

      Josh 18/03/17 11:38 AM Reply


  • well done josh CHASE THE SPUD

    pendrem 18/03/17 3:48 PM Reply


  • Gwarn The Spud!!!!!!

    And well done, Josh, on a cracking Festival campaign 2017 so far

    Much to my chagrin, the sensible part of my punting brain dissuaded from betting in the trappy ol’ Martin Pipe. Oh well

    Ali 18/03/17 3:55 PM Reply


    • How quickly things can change! 60-65 points on one week on the Tips. Madness.

      Ah no, don’t say that!! All the handicaps are trappy, have to trust the approach or not I think, certainly with the 20s+ shots! Always worth throwing something, anything! Next time.

      Josh 18/03/17 4:23 PM Reply


  • Put your 3 on each way and also fancied Blakemount (Sue Smith on soft ground); so decent return on that race. Just need Dollanmix to win the 5 o clock at Kempton and it will be a very good day indeed. Cheers

    Teresa Harvey 18/03/17 4:27 PM Reply


    • Great stuff Teresa, well done. Yep not been a bad week 🙂 Not like that every week mind! Yea I can’t resist a few small darts at those in the 5pm, market suggests that 3 of them have a questionable chance, on the drift! But you never know.

      Josh 18/03/17 4:31 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh, managed to grab 22’s on The Spud. Thanks again for a stellar week.
    Hugh

    Hugh Fowler 18/03/17 4:27 PM Reply


  • What a brilliant call Josh, got 22/1 on Chase the Spud, have been totally out of form myself and this week has been extraordinary, onwards to the Flat!? haha..Loving it and would say to the naysayers….Have at you!!! Josh is King, long live the King!!

    Stewart 18/03/17 4:35 PM Reply


    • oh sounds like I should declare at 22s! Every point counts. I know 25s only with one, seems enough 22s around!

      Yep, quite an extraordinary week really. +65 odd points on tips this week, which is only 10 points shy of all of 2016s jumps tips profit- horror latter half of 2016. Need to update tips sheet, haven’t done that for a while, probably for a reason! 🙂 Will make better reading now. Must be around +50 +55 for 2017 to date now.

      Doesn’t take many winners in prices I aim at to turn things around. Don’t think that is a normal week mind!

      Josh 18/03/17 4:39 PM Reply


      • Oh my flat tipping needs work! But then when you focus on 20+ runner sprint handicaps 5-6f, +7f, it will be a bumpy ride! We will do a ‘test’ section on those maybe!

        Josh 18/03/17 4:45 PM Reply


    • Apart From “COGRY” haha, he was up there nearly all the way though and may pop in, on a flat track. Aintree is on the horizon…don`t know what his entries are ,but, you may have to do him till end of the season.
      Reminds me of a horse i backed a couple of years ago Hot Weld ,he did really well one season and the next was constantly getting pulled up was 25/1 B.P. on morning of Scottish National (flat track) after running at Cheltenham a couple of times, Carlisle and Wetherby.
      He did make a meal of winning and I suppose he was lucky, but, the point is none of my dough was on him that day and i felt sick to the pit of my stomach as my best mate said to me weeks before…”I think he needs a flat track!!”.
      Needless to say he got the 25`s 22`s and 18`s during the course of that morning and couldn`t believe i had not backed him…

      Stewart 18/03/17 4:50 PM Reply


  • I Take it you will be running a Flat service then ?, i don’t follow your tips i just use your Data which i’m just under 100pts up from Jan 1st.

    jeffrey rees 18/03/17 5:14 PM Reply


    • Yep there will be something similar for the flat. Produced the guide last year but no service as such but will do same as with jumps – unproven of course but in theory, what with rating pointers etc, no reason why shouldn’t be similar.

      I will make some plans clear in next few days, the offer/options etc.

      That’s pretty good going, well done! Yep, I like the fact you use it in that way and add your own thoughts as to what to back/confidence/staking etc – that’s what it is all about.

      Josh 18/03/17 5:26 PM Reply


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