3.Micro Systems/Angles: Qualifiers
4.TIPS: Race Previews (inc shorlists)
5.Any Other Thoughts
Well, time to strap ourselves in for what will hopefully be an entertaining ride. A few things of possible importance – the number one aim of this week is to enjoy yourselves. Yes that means backing some winners and with any luck coming out ahead. But it also means not losing an amount that dampens your enjoyment of the spectacle. As such do set yourself a budget, however much that will be, and however you split it. I would have both a ‘considered bet’ and a ‘last minute gut bet’ budgets – there is nothing wrong with throwing some change at something last minute for whatever reason- if you can’t do that during this week, when can you! But, that can add up if you are not careful. I will get onto my tips in a moment but do have a budget for your own picks etc, if you are also following me in. Finding your own winners is a great feeling anyway,but even more so this week, and hopefully there is plenty here to help guide the way.
On the Tipping front I will be using a 25 point budget as a max. I wont say I will bet ‘X’ on each race- some races I may just want 1 point, some 2. Occasionally 3 but it will never be more than that on one race. (it is roughly 2 points per handicap, 5 for any bonus races/flexibility) So, if you do follow my tips, that is the bank. If you don’t wish to lose more than £50 betting on them, then that is £2 per point, as an example. You should be prepared/’happy’/able to afford to blow those 25 points. I could not pick a winner all week- there has always been a few winners dotted around the three years I have done this before, so hopefully that doesn’t happen! I could pick one winner, a 33/1 winner of the Grand Annual, propelling us into profit. For those who care I will be betting £10 per point on my own tips, in addition to anything I may spray around on some micro angles, that could be another 10-15 points. That’s my own comfort level and will allow me to have some fun, while also not begging on the street if it all goes horribly wrong. Which it won’t of course, but, just in case. There is always Saturday’s TTP picks and/or the Midlands National to bring the week into profit if needed 🙂 I should add most of my tips, maybe all, will be win only. You can of course ignore that and bet EW if that is what suits you.
The systems… there promises to be a lot of possibly qualifiers. Once stripping out double qualifiers and ignoring any on price ground say, that may be too short, hopefully it is manageable. Bar the trainer angles, they are all untested as such so plenty of caution is advised. If you use them at all, I would use them as an extra layer of information. It may be some fun just throwing change at any biggies, 16/1, 20/1+ and seeing how they get on.
Resources Post is HERE>>> (all the stats packs etc)
Finally, I will try and get as much up as possibly the evening before. All posts will be complete by 10am on the day of racing. You can keep track of a post’s progress by looking at the brackets in the title. As I write you will see (Upd1) and that will progress through to (Upd2/3/4 etc) until a post is (complete), at which point you know there will be no further content.
Anyway, remember to have fun, that is the main thing. Any questions as always post a comment or send me an email: firstname.lastname@example.org
Let’s get to it…
Singlefarmpayment – 1 point win 15/2 (lad/coral/SJ) (7/1 general) 2nd (Short Head)
Measureofmydreams – 1 point win 25/1 (WH/PP/BetfS) 22/1 general UP
Arpege D’Alene – 1 point win 12/1 (WH/BV/PP/Boyle/BetfS/BetB) UP (4th)
Tiger Roll- 1 point win – 16/1 (WH/Boyle) 14/1 (general) WON 16/1, 27.32 BFSP
Tully East – 1 point win – 12/1 (general) WON 12/1>8/1... BFSP 9.32
3.Micro Systems/Angles: Qualifiers
note: on the ‘track LTO angle’ for Cheltenham, i added in Doncaster/Fairyhouse/Exeter to angle also,although Chelts the main one..) I will also not be listing the ‘handicap chase starting points’ micro, but all others are below…
-Cilaos Emery (1st Headgear/Non hncp/33/1<) UP
-Ballyandy (prev fest winners/won LTO/10/1 or shorter) UP
-Altior (prev fest winners/won LTO/10/1 or shorter) WON
-Measure of My Dreams (Irish Class Drop) UP
-Holywell (prev festival winners/hncp chase/20/1<) (Trainer 14/1<) UP
-Ibis Du Rheu (prev festival winners/hncp chase/20/1<) (+track LTO/16/1< guide) (+ Jockey micro 4 33/<) UP
-The Druids Nephew (prev festival winners/hncp chase/20/1<) UP
-Un Temps Pour Tout (prev festival winners/hncp chase/20/1<) (+track LTO/16/1< guide) (+jockey micro 1) WON 14/1>9/1
-Coologue (track LTO/16/1< guide) (+ Jockey micro 4 33/<) DNQ
-Label Des Obeaux (track LTO/16/1< guide) UP
-Singlefarmpayment (track LTO/16/1< guide) 2nd
-Noble Endeavour (+ Jockey micro 4 33/<) 3rd
-Go Conquer (trainer 14/1<) DNQ
-Limini (prev fest winners/won LTO/10/1 or shorter) 2nd/3rd
-Missed Approach (1st Headgear/Non hncp/33/1<) ‘DNQ’ 2nd 50/1
-A Genie In A bottle (+ Jockey micro 6 1st ride) UP
-Sizing Tennessee (st Headgear/hncp/Age/33/1<) UP
-PowersBomb (Track LTO/LEOP/25/1<) (+ Jockey micro 6 1st ride) 4th 25/1>20/1
-Burtons Well (track LTO/16/1< guide) Fell
-Double Ws (+ Jockey micro 4 33/<) UP
-Two Taffs (+ Jockey micro 4 33/<) 3rd
- All Davy Russel rides, 20/1<
- All Nico De Boinville rides, day 1+2
4.TIPS: Race Previews (inc shortlists)
Singlefarmpayment – 1 point win (lad/coral/SJ) (7/1 general) (may be pushed out in morning, not sure)
Measureofmydreams – 1 point win 25/1 (WH/PP/BetfS) 22/1 general
There will be a stats reason from my winning profile for why nothing should win this but clearly one of them will get broken,and clearly something will be winning! From the winning profile I have used the first 6 bullets as a starting point, which generally points to a lightly raced/unexposed profile. If you apply those we are left with 12…
Un Temps Pour Tout (11-9+,OR 149+,top3 weights negs) / Noble Endeavour (same as former) / Viconte Du Noyer (same as first two,+PU LTO,+FR Bred a neg) / Label Des Obeaux (6yo a question, french) / Ibis Du Rheu (age a q,no run 24f+ a q) / Measure of My Dreams (PU lto) / Coologue (1+ chase win here) / Caid Du Berlais (Fr) / Singlefarmpayment (1+ chase win here) / Pilgrims Bay (or 133-141 a neg) / Go Conquer (as before) / Vic De Touzane (as other two,also Fr)
Well something here will bust one or more of the stats and in truth this isn’t a race I have a great record in, which given my liking for 3m+ handicap chases is starting to irk me. Maybe going with two who failed to complete the last day is asking for trouble but my eyes keep staring at them and nothing else is leaping out at me.
Singlefarmpayment– well the only stat he falls down on is having won here over fences previously but to count that as a negative seems a bit harsh. He is unexposed, progressive, has course form, is a solid jumper,was just staring to creep into the race when BD LTO, and comes from a team who are in superb form, as they have been for most of the season. He qualifies on my ‘track LTO’ angle, and for my general Tom George one from the free daily posts, and you would have to think this has been the target. I can’t really fault him. He travels, he jumps, the track is fine, there is more to come. He was running the last day like a horse in form. Provided he gets luck in running he should be going close here. There is still the potential for so much more to come and he could still be well ahead of the handicapper- which you need to be in handicaps here. I think his price is fine. I am not going to get too hung up on ‘value’ in the microcosm that is The Festival, the hunt for winners over long term ‘beating the market’ takes more prominence. This is a stand alone event really- well that is one school of thought. I suppose another niggle if the hood- not sure if he is a buzzy sort but always a chance is race can be over before it starts. One of those. Guessing a bit really as you never know until they have been here. No such problems with…
Measureofmydreams – well it will be a dream world if he dots up here. It must be something about these colours but with Very Wood (50s) and Empire of Dirt (20s) they have provided me with my two biggest Festival winners of the last three seasons. Maybe it will be the hat-trick. This one ticks all the major trends and falls down on some supporting stats of being PU LTO and running 47 days ago (46-60 a slight neg) but nothing is bombproof in this. At his price I thought he was worth taking a flyer on. He is lightly raced over fences and very unexposed in handicaps. He could have plenty in hand here. I liked the fact he has Festival form, running a stormer in last years 4 miler- that race that has worked out rather well, Native River just in front-horses from that have won races 20 times subsequently, from 70 odd runs. Solid. He hit the front a few from home that day and was probably just out-classed near the end. It showed that ground and track were not a problem and he showed some tactical speed to take it up when he did, having been held up. Mr Meade is in fine form also, 3/13,6p in the last 14 days. This horse qualifiers on my Irish Class Droppers angle and I hope he is nibbled at. I won’t be overly confident if he isn’t sent off under 20s. Meade rarely makes the trip for nothing here and can be seen as an unlucky Festival trainer- all runners here are 1/24,10p, and most of those in March. He is also 0/3,2p in handicap chases at the meeting in recent years. The Irish are 0/17,5p in the race which is solid enough. So, the only question is about his well-being really! That PU is a concern although it was after a lengthy break- and I just can’t think they would bother sending him if they thought he had no chance. Why bother if he isn’t right? Given previous Festival form here they must have mapped this out. It can’t be an afterthought. We shall see. He may just have issues. But, there was enough there for me to have a go at 25s. He may be out of it early, he may dot up with any amount in hand- that is possible given his profile.
Of the rest…
Well, where to start. You can make a case for plenty clearly. The OR/Weight Trends do jump out at you- winning handicap chases from marks of 150+ has been impossible in recent years. Noble Endeavor stands out because of connections/jockey…and he may get £2 at BFSP, one of those Festival bets! But, Measureofmydreams has beaten him twice,and well. So, something there at least. Holywell historically is too exposed against certain stats but if he repeats his run in this last year will be bang there. Just then whether those that may have something in hand actually take advantage.
So many in here, inc the selections, have some sort of question. Henri Parry Morgan is of interest but his jumping is a real concern in this field at the pace they will go. IF he jumps to his best and doesn’t make an error he goes very close to winning this. The better ground may help his jumping- but then they will be going quicker. Not a shock winner with a clear round. I can see why some would take that chance at 12s. I wasn’t willing to do so. Go Conquer will peek interest if he is backed into 14/1< given most/all of jonjo’s handicap chase winners end up in that range. It is his first run at the track and I am not convinced he looks a stayer. And he has made the odd error. Those things combined put me off but I suppose he is 25s, the price you can roll the dice. Coologue is a massive price but I am not sure has the level of form to match these, doesn’t look to have anything in hand, and is a bit out of sorts. But 50s does feel big and I wouldn’t be overly surprised if he placed, but would like to think something is better treated/has a touch more class.
There are also plenty in here with stamina concerns… I like the Nicholls pair and one may leave me crying into my tea, but I don’t think either will stay in a strong run 3m+ around here. Not convinced. They have some other negatives also. Having said that, Ibis Du Rheu hits 3 systems and If I am going to throw some change at one more, just in case, it will probably be him. Age/French Bred/Stamina concern me. I call that ‘festival discipline’ ! It would be typical for him to stay past this lot in a stoutly fashion that I couldn’t quite picture. We call know that will probably now happen.
Clarcam/Annacotty/Junction Fourteen/Buywise/Vic De Touzane all have stamina questions/conerns.
Then there are those,not already mentioned, knocked out by the main set of stats I used. This race does have a strange feel, and maybe it will go to one of the experienced ones who is long in the tooth. It doesn’t usually,but maybe this year it will.
PACE.. well it usually pays in this race/this Old Course to be more patient. These two will be mid division I hope but I won’t mind if they are more prominently ridden. There are a few who can get on with it and very few big field festival races are slowly run. You should need to stay here, no ‘getting away’ with it. We shall see who the market speaks for come the off, but hopefully the selections give any backers a run for their money.
Arpege D’Alene – 1 point win 12/1 (WH/BV/PP/Boyle/BetfS/BetB)
Tiger Roll- 1 point win – 16/1 (WH/Boyle) 14/1 (general)
If we look at a horse that ran over 21-26f LTO and had 3-5 places in chases (inc wins) I believe that leaves..
A Genie In A Bottle / Arpege D’Alene / Big Bad John / Haymount / Tiger Roll / Calett Mad
Now, the 3-5 places stat is 8/10 (8/82 runners, versus 2/86,12 p those who had 0-2) so I may well have excluded the winner but I needed some stats assistance.
2-4 previous runs at the track is a positive, as is 1+ chase run at the track. I think the only two to hit that from above are Arpege D’Alene and Tiger Roll. All of those above are 143+ also, 5/27 runners, 9 places have been OR 143+ in the last 10 years.
Trainer: Well Jonjo/King/Elliot has been the place to focus, 2 wins each, 6/10 between them last 10 years. No runner for Jonjo so that leaves Kerrow and Tiger Roll… that Tiger Roll keeps cropping up.. (flat bred, will he stay? Is there a chance this is a crawl>sprint..)
Other trainers to have won this, represented in the shortlist above are Big Bad John (Curtis) and Calett Mad (NTD)
The final one I will mention is Champers On Ice.. who is the only one in here i believe to have ran at Cheltenham or Leopardstown LTO… they are 4/15 runners, 5p as a micro angle, in this race in the last decade.
Well I haven’t over complicated this one and have very much stuck to those that the stats say have a solid chance, and who look worth a crack on paper, and who happen to be a double figure price. Easy game, hey!
If we look at those that had 3-5 places in chases, ran over 21-25 f LTO, 2-4 track runs, 1+ chase track run there are two horses that tick all those boxes, and they are the selections.
Arpege D’Alene has often looked like he has been crying out for about 10 miles. Maybe he is just a slow boat but is well worth a crack at this. It looks like he prefers going LH, usually puts his all in, and has solid track form. That form will look more solid if Singlefarmpayment runs well, not so solid if he doesn’t! He just always stays on late over 24f and ‘looks’ like he has stamina to burn. This one could bring Nicholls his first winner of the meeting. More than happy to take a stab at 12s given all of that. We should get a run for our money from him for sure, granted usual luck in running.
Tiger Roll… well ticks those stats boxes and is trained by Elliot. 16s is fine, as is 14s just, I don’t think I would want less than that, given the break. This will have been the target, Elliot can ready them, and this one has a decent enough record after a break. Given he ticks the 4 main stats I looked at, and he is trained by Elliot, I had to have a go really. Like many in here you don’t really know if they will stay until the final 5/6f or so. It may depend on how hard they go but he will like the ground and the track is no problem. Part of me doubts his stamina on paper but I will trust in the trainer and trust in his price. It’s not like he is a single figure price. And they may try and make all, which would be interesting if nothing else took him on. He will be up there. Of course the stronger pace they go the better it may be for the other selection, so with any luck all bases covered.
Of the rest… well, it’s a race full of young, mainly in form, horses who could improve massively for the step up in trip. Over analysis may be pointless. I have very much been stats driven with this one.
NOTE: my language in the winning profile for this is a bit confusing for the class stat… so… ‘ all winners had won at C3 level or above but not above G3’. (so excluding those that had yet to win above C4, and/or who had won at G2+ ) If there was any confusion.
Tully East – 1 point win – 12/1 (general)
Applying the first 4 bullet points of the ‘winning profile’ (before looking at market, Top 10, 20/1< SP) and the class point, as above leaves a shortlist of 6 I think… (and the ‘Davy Russell is on a shortlisted horse again klaxon’ is going off! – left two of his shortlisted horses last year, 12s, 25s…not a penny on) So..
Templehills / Bun Doran / Tully East / Gold Present / Two Taffs/ Burtons Well
None of them are 2nd-6th in weights so no concern there. Two Taffs would fall down on the 1 handicap chase run only stat, but that is one of those more illogical/’back fitted’ type stats in the sense that 0 is fine as is 2+. And the place stats are fine.
The market has been some guide, those 11th or lower at the off… 0/86,9p last 10 years. 22/1+ SP, 0/75,12p
Trainers: Of those with horses left on the shortlist… Henderson has won this before (Gold Present) . Venetia Williams is 0/10,1p last decade (Burtons Well)
Tully East… Well I have deliberated and deliberated, and every man, woman and their dog knows that I have probably gone for the wrong one on the shortlist (provided that includes the winner of cours) . That’s how it goes here sometimes. A few things have swayed me his direction, mainly the fact that he has Festival form, 4th in last year’s Martin Pipe.. so we know he travels over fine, the atmosphere isn’t an issue and that he has no problems with the hill. Jumping fences around here is different of course but it is still a positive, and all bar Burton’s Well on the shortlist have course experience. I also like the fact that Flemming has only sent 5 horses to Cheltenham, two have placed.. including the selection in last year’s race and also a 4th in this very race also. Indeed he sent 4 runners last year, 2 placed. Decent. That would indicate some careful targeting. He also has Denis on board which given it is the old course and there is so much pace , on paper, in this (i can count 10/half the field, who like to get on with it) he should be able to get his horse in a rhythm further back, and creep into it slowly, in a way only Denis can do (and Jamie Spencer on the level, and Moloney also). Now, that may mean he leaves too much to do, going down agonisingly as he closes to the line, but not quite getting there. But,in this race, being more patient looks advisable.
The horse.. well he really could be anything over fences off this mark, over this trip. He has only raced over 20f once, over hurdles, here last year, which I find interesting. Thoroughly unexposed over this distance and on breeding etc it should be fine. The way he stayed on over 18f at Thurles offers plenty of encouragement. I like the fact that he has big field chase form there. He has ran in some decent races the last twice, at a higher class, on ground that may have been too testing, over a trip that may be too short. They look the perfect two races to my eye of you want to protect a chase mark. He has to be very well handicapped here given how lightly raced over fences he is, this being his first handicap chase also.
I think there is a lot to like about his chance here. He will have been sent over to run his best and I suspect they expect a bold show. EW would probably be wise but at 12s I will be gun-ho.
Of the rest..
Well Burton’s Well is of some interest and is a qualifier for the Track LTO angle, (if 16/1<) so I may throw some change there. As I probably will Two Taffs, both those from my system budget, probably 1/2 point each. Burton’s Well has been kept away from decent ground but it is an unknown, he may relish it. They ran him at the track LTO which I found interesting and of the bigger priced ones he does look worthy of some small interest. He may not handle the ground and Venetia is 0/10,1p in the race, but she comes here in cracking form. Given the owner I would be looking out for him at Aintree also, if he ends up there. Two Taffs.. well the Davy factor is probably affecting his price- I am never bouncing up and down when a trainer fires 3 or more horses at a race like this, suggesting more throwing a few darts and seeing if any can hit the target, than some kind of plan. I may have that wrong. This horse gets both first time cheepieces and tongue tie- that suggests they have been disappointed with recent efforts- he does need to step up and doesn’t have any track form. That equipment move slaps of desperation to an extent. Maybe it will work. But, Davy’s hands can work wonders around here. He is on a shortlisted horse that I am not tipping but the 10s shots are slightly easier to live with than the 16s+ jobs. I don’t want more than 1 point on this race and the horse selected looks most interesting to my eyes out of those on the shortlist.
Bun Dorran- well I have backed one horse who PU LTO and that is probably enough. This one is inconsistent and was poor the last day, cutting out a bit when an error didn’t help. Market support may be worth noting but I am happy for him to beat me. At his best he would have a chance. Gold Present- again the lack of course form/Festival experience, put him behind the selection. Not a shock winner given on the shortlist and Hendo has won this race before. A big field chase and undulating tracks are questions he has to answer. That was enough for me to go with the selection, and leave him.
There are a few micro system horses to keep an eye on in here, maybe one of those bigger priced ones will pop up, although there is a danger of backing half the field if we’re not careful! And that may still no guarantee the winner.
All being well Tully East should give us a run for our money, baring a blunder/fall/BD I think he will look like playing a major role as they turn for home. Hopefully Denis delivers him to perfection, flying past tiring rivals and winning with any amount in hand. job done.
That will be all for ‘tips’
5.Any Other Thoughts
Something to read… 32Red have Bryan Cooper, Nico De Boinville and Paddy Brennan on their books writing columns etc and you may wish to flick through those, I found them of some interest… I noted how Paddy Brennan mentioned SingleFarmPayment, liked BallyAndy, and thought Colin’s Sister was a decent EW bet. Bryan Cooper was interesting… Bunk Off Early / Petit Muchoir / Tiger Roll got strong mentions from him. He thought it all may happen too quickly for Genie In A Bottle in the 4 miler, on that ground.
There is the Skybet free bet off for the first race each day I believe, money back free bet if a loser. So, you could pick something using that The two of interest to me on my stats are Bunk of Early – Townend rides and he has done well on Day 1 in recent years, and Cilaos Emery who maybe has little chance but qualifies on a first time headgear angle and at what could be a decent BFSP, you never know.
I have the tips but will have a nibble on Ibis Du Rheu given the number of micros he hits and he is very much unexposed. Like all horses in here he falls down on something, stats wise. It will be one of those races/results. My head says Nobel Endeavor can’t win from that weight/rating… but I kind of think he may still have a fair bit in hand. But he is on the Davy angle.
No thoughts really, one for me to watch… if I have a tickle it may well be on Petit Mouchour who has impressed on the clock apparently and Cooper seemed positive enough in his 32Red column. I want The New One to win, that would be some result, but won’t be backing him to do so. I can cheer him home without carrying any money. You would think his time has been and gone in this race though.
I think that is the lot for Day 1. I don’t think I have missed anything. Fingers crossed there are some winners dotted around the various sections and that one or more of the tips can go in.
What do you fancy?
And good luck with any bets,
I will be back at some point Tuesday afternoon.