TTP Jumps Notes: SAT 11/03/17 (complete)

1.The Ratings Pointers

2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

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1.The Ratings Pointers

HorseRaceBase

Top Rated 

3.20 A – Takingrisks

2.25 S – Shanroe Santos 

Top 3

2.45 A – Chidswell

3.55 A – One For Harry

4.30 A – Bolin Julie

3.00 A- Fixe Le Kap

 

Geegeez Speed

Top Rated 

2.45 A – Chidswell

2.25 S  – Morney Wing

Top 3

2.25 S – Shanroe Santos

3.00 S – Fix Le Kap 

 

2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

AYR

2.45- Chidswell (micro going) 14,30 

3.20 – TakingRisks (micro going + runs this season)  14,30 7/4

3.55 – One For Harry (micro going + runs this season)  14,30 11/4

4.30 – Bolin Julie (hncp hurdle) 5/1

5.35 – Up Helly AA King (NHF) 13/2

 

SANDOWN

2.25 –

Morney Wing (all hncps)  14 14/1

Shanroe Santos (hncp chase) 11/4

3.00 – Fixe Le Kap (micro going) 11/2

4.45 –

Morning Reggie (all hncps) 6/1

Gores Island (micro class + distance) 9/2

 

**

Hereford (Notes) (do not officially qualify)

remember the stats profile for this track is for the three years before it was then closed. One to track this season and probably next, but based on the record of trainers that used to do well here…

1.40 – Drumviredy (all hncps + hncp chase)  14,30 H3

2.15

Super Sam (all hncps)

Never Learn (all hncps) G3

4.00 – Plaisir D’Amour (all hncps + hncp chase) H1 G3 

4.35 – Muffins For Tea (all hncps) G3

 

3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

 

My Bet of The Day… Test (2/8,2p +12)

2.25 Sandown – Morney Wing – 14/1…

Well this looks a quiet day and this one is likely to be actual only bet of the day from this page I think – nothing at the shorter prices leaps out at me but with any luck a few will go in. I was hoping the Alexander NHF runner may be a double figure price and then be backed in but alas he wasn’t.

Anyway, Morney Wing is tricky – i would be backing him based on him being a ‘RP 10/1+’ qualifier, and Geegeez Top Speed at that. My subjective judgement, which over time I doubt will never out-think  the ‘RPs 10/1+’ approach I doubt, says those two Ps are a concern and he looks out of sorts. IF you can forgive those- and the first may have come too quick after his effort at Plumpton, the latter he was never going early/never in a rhythm, then 14s would be too big. Conditions are fine and while he may want further at least if it is a test he won’t be found wanting for stamina. It appears the ground is drying which means it could be that holding/tacky type of soft that takes a lot of effort to plough through. We shall see. Mann is ‘in form’ also which helps and his jockey knows him well enough. He has form over this trip and a decent enough record in small fields. We are clinging onto him returning to that form when he ran well here in a C2 and that Plumpton form. If he returns to that he out-runs these odds,as simple as that. They may try and race him a bit more prominently also, as he has never been sighted in his last two runs.

So, a more hopeful stab than a confident one in truth. It could well be another P but at least I am getting a price.

Good luck with whatever you go with today, if anything.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Not sure how useful these will be, one of those where every horse has a stat question or two to answer. There is nothing that ticks all the main boxes I found. This race also used to get 20+ runners as well, but two of the last three have been 14 and that may well affect the stats profile moving forwards. 

IMPERIAL CUP

stats of interest..

  • 10/10 carried 10-3 – 11-1
  • 10/10 OR 124-135
  • 10-10 had 2-5 runs this season
  • 10/10 4th or lower in the weights
  • 10/10 had 1-2 hurdle wins
  • 10/10 running same class (G3) or up 3 classes max (not C4 or lower LTO)
  • Track LTO
    • Newb/Sand/Chelt: 6/10
    • Taunt: 0/18,30
    • Winc: 0/12,0p
  • Trainers
    • Pipe: 3/15,7p
    • 1 win: Hobbs/ L Mongan/Longsdon/Newland/Henderson/Wadham/NTD
    • G Moore: 0/11,2p

Shortlist?: Well, these leave a mixed picture from what i can see. If you just looked at the weight/rating trend it leaves 3…

Spice Fair/Prairie Town/Disputed  (they all fall down on the seasons run trends, 0/37,4p had 6 or more runs) 

Ignoring weight/OR and going with seasons runs/4th lower in weights/1-2 hurdle wins/Same or up 3 classes max from last run, leaves: 

Gassin Golf + London Prize. 

Anyway, hopefully they may help you find the winner!

 

**

KEY:(applicable across the blog) 

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 20 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

NOTE: In the ratings pointers above, BOLD indicates a ‘double qualifier,against both ratings’ in RED is a ‘double top rated qualifier

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

3 Comments

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  • hi josh
    2 pp for morney wing may not be a problem, i had £20 on GOODBYE DANCER yesterday, also 2 pp, £17 @ 48 BFSP, won £840

    pendrem 11/03/17 11:07 AM Reply


    • Hi Malc, sounds like a couple of you had a good at him, decent win!! great ride from Sam. Wish I had a go, I did note the 10 mins before how a TTP horse at Leicester finished like a train, sadly winner kept going, nearly another for the RP 10/1 – was some indication that maybe there were no longer issues with yard form, same owners as well. I wish you’d told us to back him before haha- although suspect some like that are last min when you cant quite believe a BF price infront of you. Well done.

      Josh 11/03/17 11:36 AM Reply


  • A couple of value bets tomorrow
    3.35 Market Rasen-Noble Leader 11/1 BV
    3.55 Warwick-Carli King 7/1 Generally

    Might put a few shillings in cheltenham satchel

    gerry 12/03/17 9:19 AM Reply


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