FREE DAILY POST: 11/03/17 (complete)

Saturday will be relatively quiet on horses front, some system quals and some Imperial Cup trends/stats. I won’t be tipping anything as I need to give my head a rest after a rather intense week, mainly spent in my HRB account starting/completing the ‘Cheltenham Resources’ post.

My old housemates from my University days (i started at Liverpool 10 years ago this September, not sure where that time has gone, must be age! :)) are coming up for the weekend for one of our 6 monthly catch ups. It will be quite nice to ‘switch off’ to an extent,at least on Saturday, before next week.

All of the main research is now done. Just a case of starting to apply it on Sunday evening/Monday.

Anyway…

If you missed my Freebie Post you can read that HERE>>> 

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TIPS 

none. but of some interest…

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IMPERIAL CUP

stats of interest..

  • 10/10 carried 10-3 – 11-1
  • 10/10 OR 124-135
  • 10-10 had 2-5 runs this season
  • 10/10 4th or lower in the weights
  • 10/10 had 1-2 hurdle wins
  • 10/10 running same class (G3) or up 3 classes max (not C4 or lower LTO)
  • Track LTO
    • Newb/Sand/Chelt: 6/10
    • Taunt: 0/18,30
    • Winc: 0/12,0p
  • Trainers
    • Pipe: 3/15,7p
    • 1 win: Hobbs/ L Mongan/Longsdon/Newland/Henderson/Wadham/NTD
    • G Moore: 0/11,2p

Shortlist?: Well, these leave a mixed picture from what i can see. If you just looked at the weight/rating trend it leaves 3…

Spice Fair/Prairie Town/Disputed  (they all fall down on the seasons run trends, 0/37,4p had 6 or more runs) 

Ignoring weight/OR and going with seasons runs/4th lower in weights/1-2 hurdle wins/Same or up 3 classes max from last run, leaves: 

Gassin Golf + London Prize. 

Anyway, hopefully they may help you find the winner!

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MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Oh there are actually none.

An old ‘March Angle’ is lurking though as a bonus, potentially…

Nicky Henderson/March/Not ‘The’ festival/All Hurdles / 12/1 or shorter SP

Since 2011, 57/157,91 places… + 78 SP… now 2/3 this year so far… three potentials at Sandown..

His two runners in the 1.50 Sandown and 3.00 Fixe Le Cap

 

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And another shout for…

 

Time is running out…

If you want access to more stats/trends etc like those in the freebie post above, or my own shortlisting and opinion on the 10 Handicaps + the National Hunt Chase/RSA/Albert Bartlett then why not sign up to my Festival package right now, HERE>>>

(and if you don’t like your experience you can get a full refund, no problem…)

You can get instant access to my Cheltenham Resources Post with plenty there for those of you who wish to sift through all those races/micro angles. Or you can leave me to do the heavy lifting and use my shortlists to profit. I will also post qualifiers for all micro angles in the stats guides. 

And if you join now, you may just back a few 10/1+ winners on Saturday to pay for Cheltenham. My daily Members Posts have been on fire so far this year, esp on Saturdays. (you can read through those impressive results HERE>>>)

Why Not Join Now, RIGHT HERE>>>

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

23 Comments

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  • Hi, let me be the first to post for Saturday. The Imperial Cup is a favourite of mine as I remember the days of the Pipe horses that would come to win this race and then off to the festival for the double. Olympian was one I remember well. Anyway I hear Gary Moore thinks Not Another Muddle can go well in the ground, 9/1 now. Do not back that dodge pot Gassin Golf, save your money for next week.

    I have had Petticoat Tails in my tracker for a while and it goes in the 3.35 SP, 4/1 now. Paul Nicholls speaks well of Sirabad, 4.00 Her.

    On the all weather I hear Keystroke will win the 3.15 Wol. Not much of a price though and at 25/1 Rene Mathis may find some form off his current mark? I also like Kafell, 5.45 Che.

    I was at a preview evening last night and Phil Smith told us two interesting tip bits. Favourites have a bad record in handicaps at the festival, so avoid them and BHA top two rated usually go well in non handicaps, so stick with them. He also thought Uknowhatimeanharry was a banker. A solid angle may be to back all runners ridden by Jamie Codd and Derek O’Connor, as it pays well in the long term.

    Maybe back tomorrow.

    Martin Colwell 10/03/17 8:44 PM Reply


    • Yeah was interesting in the preview evening last night. A couple of things he said in general which whilst in some ways obvious bares pointing out. He is very sympathetic to fallers. He mentioned Might Bite as an example in that he has gone up to 154 where as he thought he was actually a 161 horse but didn’t want to put him up that much for a fall given it would stop him winning any future handicaps when he didn’t win. So if a horse is put up falling a fall its likely they think the mark is still lenient. (that wasn’t a tip in case anyone was wondering since they all thought Might Bite wasn’t really suited by Cheltenham and should be taken on). The other point he made was when they drop a top/graded level horse (eg Dodging Bullets) into the 150s they think they’re gone at the game.

      Nick Mazur 10/03/17 9:17 PM Reply


      • And Matt from Geegeez won second prize in the raffle! Jammy sod he is. Anyone fancy a drink and a chat at Cheltenham let me know. I think that i have at least 12 winners so far but I may be delusional?

        Martin Colwell 10/03/17 10:45 PM Reply


  • Well at least the racing is better tomorrow so hopefully it might improve my form. I have been keeping an eye on Kayf Blanco ever since his 5 length 3rd over course and distance at Sandown. The winner Brainpower is now rated 20lbs higher and running in the Champion Hurdle. He than ran very well in the Betfair which was one of the hottest handicaps of the year. Before that he ran a solid races at the festival and a class 2 in April. He fits 5 out of the 8 trends Josh highlighted above. He is top rated on HRB and 4th on GGG speed rating. The last 2 winners of this race ran big races in the Betfair Hurdle. (Ebony Express was challenging before being brought down) Basically barring his run at Exeter when he was hampered he hasn’t really ran a bad race so I really expect him to go close in what looks like a sub-standard Imperial Cup. On top of that Graeme MacPherson brings out his not so secret weapon and applies first time hood and tongue tie. The last four times he has sent out horses with first time headgear in handicaps has resulted in four winners all winning fairly comfortably. Lets hope it continues tomorrow. He is also in good form going 3/14, 7p in the past 30 days and 1/7, 4p at the track in the past 5 years.

    Staying at Sandown I want a small bet on Turban in the finale. He has been running badly over the wrong distance with a hood he seems to hate. As a result of this he has dropped from 143 to 118 in 4 runs. Paul Henderson has done good work with the ex-Mullins horses and I think he now has a very well handicapped horse. He drops back in distance and drops in class and the dreaded hood is off. Despite running so badly over a longer trip he still achieved the 2nd best GGG speed rating. All his best form is over right handed tracks. At 20/1 in a poor looking class 3 I had to give him a go.

    Moving on to the all-weather I want to have a go on Eastern Impact in the 16:25 at Wolves. He has never raced on the AW but going by his breeding it shouldnt be a problem. He has ran very well on both his re-appearance runs during the past two years. He hasn’t ran in a handicap since his win in the 2015 Coral Cup and is now 2lbs below that mark. He appears to be the only front runner in the race and gets a plum draw in one. He is only 6 and this looks the easiest race in quite some time.

    We backed Outlaw Torn at a big price when he won on the 7th of January. Since than he has run badly at Newcastle twice, ran OK at Lingfield and in between he won again at Wolves. Back at Chelmsford (in the 20:45) which favours front runners he appears to be the only front runner. He is only 3lbs higher than his last win. Dougie should get him out in front and hopefully do a better job that the amateur LTO (he comes down to Chelmsford for just the one ride). Guest is 4/11, 6p +25 in handicaps at the track over the past two years and his last five runners have gone 12924. I expect him to go close. (personally have backed him e/w even is 6s is a little thin for some people)

    Nick Mazur 10/03/17 11:02 PM Reply


    • Hi Nick, thanks for your always interesting posts.

      I also use HRB – you have mentioned the Ratings on there before – how good do you think they are please? Are they okay to use across the spectrum. Thank you.

      Richard Sutton 11/03/17 10:41 AM Reply


      • Hi Richard

        To be honest with you I think its a plus point but one of many pieces of the puzzle so I wouldn’t necessarily back anything purely on the basis of the ratings. I haven’t really done any research on the subject although I think Josh has.

        Regards,
        Nick

        Nick Mazur 11/03/17 11:37 AM Reply


        • Okay thank you.

          Richard Sutton 11/03/17 12:21 PM Reply


          • Chieftain’s Choice in the 3.00 Sandown would be a nice winner based on HRB figures. Thrown in on old form and confirmed steady improvement when taking full advantage over C&D 3 weeks ago. Runner-up gone in since, so has to be considered at around 12/1

            Norman 11/03/17 2:28 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh, I’ve been away for a few days and I can’t remember whether members are to pay to access members page for Chelt:…as I keep being directed to a clickbank page. but I can’t access normal members page.
    It’s most probably me….I don’t mind the payment…just not sure.
    Or if anyone else knows…drop a quick line. lol.
    Tony Mc.

    tonymc 11/03/17 9:22 AM Reply


    • Thought I would check access for you Tony and I can log in fine and almost certain access free for members anyway so might be something else.

      Nick Mazur 11/03/17 9:28 AM Reply


      • Thanks Nick…Josh has sorted it.

        tonymc 11/03/17 12:38 PM Reply


    • Hi Tony, existing Members have full access to everything, no extra charge. If you are logged in and are being directed to that page it suggests an issue with my membership software the most likely being that my tech recognises you as being unsubscribed or membership expired, hence you are locked out. I will finish members post then have a look/email you etc. 10.05am as i write.

      Josh 11/03/17 10:05 AM Reply


  • I dont know what the stats are but Scholfield on big price Handicappers down in weight and with 1st time changes in headgear etc seems to have been a few big priced winners with him onboard.

    James Knibbs 11/03/17 11:19 AM Reply


  • 1.50 Sand Prime Venture e/w 19/1
    3.00 Sandown Chieftan’s Choice 19/1 ew
    4:00 HEREFORD Somchine, 14/1 speculative bet,but with jock 10lb off horse is much below winning mark
    Sandown 4.45 Dance Floor King 6/1

    Pab 11/03/17 12:06 PM Reply


    • well done pab!

      gerry 11/03/17 5:47 PM Reply


  • Hi,

    a couple more, one at 40/1!

    1.50 SP the Gary Moore horse, Crystal Lad at 40/1 BET365.

    2.05 Wol, Supersta, has excellent course form, either a 1 or a 2.

    Good luck.

    Martin Colwell 11/03/17 1:03 PM Reply


    • Let’s hope Supersta can follow the EW on Crystal Lad 🙂

      Chris Rees 11/03/17 2:05 PM Reply


  • Top analysis Josh,my only bet today

    gerry 11/03/17 3:07 PM Reply


    • Good stuff Gerry. Yep that worked out well and maybe a sign for next week in the sense of how we use the OR/weight trends. Maybe start with the horse profile first if that makes sense and use weight/or later on. Esp as the handicaps seem to be attracting more quality fields each year. But my approach seems to work on the shortlisting front. That is a few now this season in Saturday races . Glad you had a piece. Well done .

      Josh 11/03/17 3:34 PM Reply


  • Had London Prize and William H Bonney, felt more confident on London Prize Josh, thank you for that and bring on Cheltenham…

    Stewart 11/03/17 3:34 PM Reply


  • hi josh
    COBBLERS!!!! missed winning SCOOP 6 today by a NOSE! WOULD HAVE WON ANOTHER STRIDE. in a syndicate, but would have been few thousand at least

    pendrem 11/03/17 3:59 PM Reply


  • hi josh
    further to above sad tale, it just got worse, had an e-mail saying that my syndicate originally had the last leg 25 to 1 winner as a selection that would have scooped £419000
    jackpot, but changed it later! they obviously have not heard of that saying” never change a bet!

    pendrem 11/03/17 9:27 PM Reply


  • well done on london prize-credit where credits due.

    chris graham 13/03/17 10:03 AM Reply


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