FREE DAILY POST: 10/03/17 (complete)

 

**

FESTIVAL OFFER…

Don’t forget you can check out my Festival Offer HERE>>> 

It may be for you, it may not. But we should have a good time and the more who join the more fun we will have.

 

***

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Important… with your permission, unless unrest from the stalls, I am going to ‘bin off’ the handicap hurdle/chase test portfolio- they haven’t been working sadly and I do need to look at them again, or just not bother. Maybe too many ‘micros’ that I bundled into trainer packages, where the top level numbers looked good, but about it. Anyway, to be blunt, and knowing what is coming up next week, I can’t really be bothered to keep typing those up! But, I will persist if there is unrest. If course you have the report (free systems somewhere) and if you have system building software can keep track yourself 🙂 … were our old friend Jim still with us I would now be putting on my tin hat, and maybe some kevlar also 🙂

 

Kerry Lee Chasers (12/1<)

2.55 Leic – Simply Wings

 

Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live Test

3.40 Sand – Billy Bronco (12/1< guide)

2.55 Leic – Simply Wings (12/1<)

 

***

 

***

A final ‘bonus’.. maybe, this one a tad more speculative/weak in the market… from the TTP Members Post, and hot off the press…

Good to get back to back winners with my ‘bet of the day test’ at 10s and now 8s the last two pics, more than making up for my poor start. Now 2/7,2p +13 points  to morning/bog odds, 1 point win.

My Bet of The Day… test

3.20 Ayr – Christmas In The USA – 10/1 

Well, he is a no brainer for the systematic followers given he is a ratings pointer horse and 10/1+, so ticks that box for that strategy. He was 8s but as I was typing at around 8.30 went to 10s in 5 or so places, so he officially counts! He is also Top on Geegeez Speed, and if you are going to blindly follow just one of the ratings pointers angles, regardless of odds etc, Top Rated Geegeez appears to be the one,but those stats are building up all the time.

What about the horse? Well he is in the ‘could be anything category’, and to repeat my favourite phrase with such types ‘including being useless’. He has the odd bit of French form in the mud and is lightly raced over here, making his handicap hurdle debut. Alexander is 2/19,5p in the last 2 years so while not a supporting stat to get excited about (unlike Kim Baileys the other day) it is not a reason to be put off, which is just as important sometimes. He steps back up in trip – I like a distance move- and the hood goes on here. I think he has been a keen sort. He will need to settle to get home in this bog so the early part of the race will indicate whether by bank may be going to +23, or +12. He has had a break since his last run, maybe to get over his fall and/or to put some hard training into him. His odds suggest he wasn’t there to run well in those maiden/novice hurdles. The trainer is also in cracking form, 5/9 the last 14 days, so an eye on all his today. Knowing me I have picked out the only one of his that won’t go close! He can ready them after 60+ days also. No problem there in the context of his price.

So, he has an interesting profile. In what isn’t a deep race. One of the others in here may win for us but Tomahawk won at 9s for us the last day and is too short here for me and Andhaar is getting on, doesn’t win very often, and has never raced on heavy. An unknown.

I wouldn’t want less than 10s I don’t think, he may well drift to a bigger BFSP or there will be some late money. He will do.

He looks likely to be the only ‘RP 10/1+’ qualifier on that strategy although potential horses to set a 11.00 minimum on BFSP include Andhaar, Bennys Secret and Allthegear No Idea.  The rest look unlikely to get there unless some massive drifters…

Bigger priced monsters..

Well, Knight of Noir is 20/1… (3.40 Sand) he comes up against a few in form unexposed ones here and the market suggests bar a fall Hobbs’ charge is going close. He has been in shocking form over fences for his new trainer but does revert to hurdles, and IF he repeated his best hurdles form for Pipe, he would out-run these odds. If. He is one of those that has old form that if repeated may be worth something. Only his 9th hurdle start also. Those types are dangerous to put a line through and while my focus is on ‘RP 10/1+’ and I bet them accordingly now, I like to throw something at these bigger priced ones not in the RPs if you can make some sort of case. If you ignored his last three runs you could. He does just look out of sorts but at least is doing something different in reverting to hurdles. I won’t go mad but will have a tickle on the machine BFSP. And probably save the bigger stakes for the Saturday biggies, given we have seen what they can do.  Clearly i expect him to go nowhere close, but you never know.

 

***

 

That will be all for today. GL with any bets, as always.

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

8 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • looking for a bit of ew value today 2 have caught my eye @ Sandown
    3-05. Raithlin Rose @15/8 is the worthy fav but i noticed an old favourite of mine Shantou Magic @11/1 a good performer in his day with a 25% win rate chasing , not disgraced in a couple of point to points recently, only real negative is the going.
    3-40. CHASE END CHARLIE is my ew value of the day, won over this trip 2 runs ago and was upped in distance LTO , one that will like the going, 2/6 over hurdles and has won in this class. 20-1 + looks big.

    martin whittle 10/03/17 7:43 AM Reply


    • thanks Ian for the jockey comment in san 3-05, it reminded me that Shantou Magic jockey rode him in his last 2 p2p 4th/2nd so knows him well another positive.

      martin whittle 10/03/17 8:26 AM Reply


  • Got to be a “day off” today, with all due respect to our military, they spoil what could be a cracking Chase at 3.05 at Sandown as frankly we don’t have a “Scooby doo” as to how well any of them can ride a horse or not, in some cases I’m sure they “pull rank” over better riders??..I think with a weather forecast set pretty fair with little rain over the next 7 days an opportunity to get the form book out, the Yorkshire Tea and a butty and to start studying – armed with Joshs excellent notes…

    Ian 10/03/17 7:55 AM Reply


    • Yep , Festival… I think we should be working off good ground for day 1, wouldn’t shock me if they watered come thursday/friday IF it remains set fair etc. Yesterday, or Wednesday last year it poured down, really very heavy, and it drained away by the Tuesday. They haven’t had anywhere near that recently. Looks certain not to be soft or worse anyway.

      And that of course means they may all go a stride quicker, and jumping will be put to the test even more.

      I should have the rest of the resources finished today, 3 bonus races will be up asap, winning profiles to complete and a couple of other bits and pieces.

      Enjoy the butty!

      Josh 10/03/17 9:25 AM Reply


  • Not sure if this is of interest but i got passed this blog with some key stats for all the festival races in a similar vein to what Josh produces. Not wanting to trump your work Josh it just may save you some time and allow us to refine further here or concentrate efforts on other angles…

    https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=412363

    Jackadam 10/03/17 9:45 AM Reply


  • Clicked the £2 donation think you emailed last weekend with my email address but hasnt come through since i did it last night and checked all spam folders

    Was it only a few days it was available?

    James Knibbs 10/03/17 12:19 PM Reply


    • Ah, they did email me- I think they had technical gremlins as their systems were down for a time. Hold on a sec and will email you it. Josh

      Josh 10/03/17 12:25 PM Reply


  • Thought Goodbye Dancer had a chance today (and TD confirmed, but then he seems to think every runner he puts out has a good chance) and 28s was a ridiculous price (generally got around 42-44 on BF before the off). Was a real ‘get out of jail, head in hands, Shaanmer is going to do him in the last 100 yards’ punt.

    Clearly a bit late to share that now, but maybe it means the racing gods are smiling on me…..so here’s the others…

    For the long awaited Bushranger party….

    Whatsthemessage 6.45 Newc Looked useful on first 2 starts, winning over 7, and beat in a C2 1m after. Not done much in 3 runs back from break, but could be up to taking a Class 4 off bottom weight and here’s hoping that Newcastle’s 6 plays to the strenhths of a fastish 7f runner.

    Plenty of obvious dangers but at 40-1 (currently 55 BF and seems to have been stable there since taking bits of 100 earlier this morning) could be worth a mild EW interest. It could go either way on BF given the opposition and 3 fairly unpromising recent runs.

    9.00 Dundalk My old friend Queluz. Watch his 1m2f race at Dundalk 2 weeks ago. 50-1 that day and in the mid 100s before the race, finished well but watch what happened after the line. Didn’t stop and looked fresh as a daisy over a furlong later. Looked like jockey couldn’t pull him up. This mile and a half could be the answer. Clearly though it might have looked better than it was, maybe misleading as the others slowed up.

    Best 20-1 this morning, highest BF seen not much more than 28. Suspect it won’t go much higher but you never know. Seems guaranteed he’ll see out the distance well.

    Bonus just remembered….5.10 Leics. Musical wedge may have one last win in him. This trip/course should suit well if he still has it in the legs.

    Steve Cross 10/03/17 4:46 PM Reply


Post A Reply