FREE DAILY POST: 05/03/17 (complete)

Well my trip to Anfield was good fun! For those of you who care about such things. And well if you are a Gunners supporter I do feel sorry for you somewhat. That is one of the worst first half displays I have ever seen from a visiting ‘top 4 contender’. But, this isn’t a football blog so we will leave that there! One day Klopp/the players will mentally/tactically figure out how to approach games against those not in the Top 6. Moving on…

Thank the Lord I have an affection for trainer stats I could stop Douvan in my current form, with my ‘tipping’ / ‘i like this horse’ approach. On the Members post I started dabbling with ‘my bet of the day’ – using the stats as a starting point and the other tools at my disposal to pick out which one looked most interesting. They are now 0/5,0p, all five still running. And two others I thought would run well on Saturday are still running..but but but… just trust the stats long term…

They had a painful February on the whole, certainly compared to Jan which was a bit crazy really, but the approach that is looking most solid is the ‘ratings pointers 10/1+’ strategy. Basically those stats pack qualifiers that are top 3 on HRB and/or Geegeez Speed ratings and that were generally 10/1 in the morning and/or are sent of 11.00 BFSP. So far in 2017 those are now, after Just A Par won at 18.o0, 8/56, +64 points, BFSP. Solid. They are a good foundation, and one in which to then decide how to dabble on any of the other qualifiers.

Overall all qualifiers were 3/12 today, winners at 6/1>5/2, 10/1>8/1 and 14/1 with bookies, a nice +21 points. They generally do well at weekends, bar the odd blowout and have had a solid start to March.

**

No Tips on Sunday, cards being decimated by non-runners as I write. There is the Cambridgeshire National which looks an ok little staying chase. I will keep my powder dry but the one I like, and therefore worth laying the life out of!, is Oliver Sherwoods mare, Blameitalonmyroot – in form and versatile I think she ‘might’ relish this trip and is certainly worth a go at it. I can see her just galloping and galloping around here. And She will be up there from the off I suspect. Were she 9/2+ I probably would have had a go but with the non runners etc only 3s and in any case as I write this I haven’t gone through the race in any detail. Of course I tipped her two starts ago when she PU and the she won on her next start 12s>8s. Typical really.

 

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Harry Fry Mares (10/1< guide, 12/1+ now 1/13, 0)

3.30 Hunt – Desert Queen

 

Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live Test

3.20 Sedge- Swing Hard (12/1<)

4.20 Sedge – Wolf Sword (12/1<)

 

Handicap Hurdle/Chase Portfolio – Live Test

3.20 Sedge – Sun Cloud

 

**

A Bonus…

Well, I say a bonus… below is my ‘bet of the day’ test selection from the Members Post. This one looks the most interesting on the day on that side of things…

My Bet of The Day… Test (emphasis on that word) (0/5,0p)…

2.30 Hunt…

Well BRAW ANGUS 8/1 is going to get the extra burden of my bet of the day expectation. But for Gary Moore’s coming out and the 25p R4 he would have been a ‘Ratings Pointer 10/1+’ selection.. but he may drift to 11.00+ on the machine and qualify that way, although a drift for one with this profile wouldn’t inspire confidence, you want this type to be backed really… I put him up on the free post at a big price, 22s+ maybe, when he was withdrawn, and the same reasons apply. Clearly he ticks our stats/ratings here but he makes handicap hurdle debut which is of interest. Bailey is 6/23,9p with such types in the last year, 8/41,13p +26 SP in the last 2 years. That P/L figure suggests most are well backed and sent off at single figure prices. He is 1/3,2p at Huntingdon. Maybe an interesting EW bet but I am a win only punter generally. But, each to their own. He also steps up in distance which is what I want to see with handicap hurdle debutants as that is a reason for improvement- allied to the fact that they may have been trained a bit harder now, and of course have gained experience along the way. Heavy is an unknown as is his ability- he may just be useless. That is always a possibility and always why you want a price with this type. They will pay over time from this yard. This is also a shocker of a race where everything has something to prove. And he has some stamina in his pedigree and this could be a slog. Finally, Bailey is in form, 7/28,14p the last 14 days.

Fingers crossed!

 

***

That will be all for Sunday

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

32 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • One for me tomorrow 16.00 Huntingdon – Lord Heathfield, I picked it hoping that the going turns heavy tomorrow. If it remains soft then the chances are going down.
    Good luck with your selections.

    Marcin Sudol 04/03/17 11:11 PM Reply


    • Lord Heathfield is a n/r so i’m going to take a leap of faith and have a little on Optimistic Bias as he should have no problem getting home in these conditions and is now weighted to go well, if he jumps well should have a good chance.

      martin whittle 05/03/17 12:06 PM Reply


    • Hi all, Wood Yer tops my ratings H 4.00
      NTD is out of form though.
      It has W2 & placed twice in going.
      only placed in class 3…but is 9/2.
      Not to sure whether to bet.
      Ground suggests a galloper is required.

      BOL with selections.

      tonymc 05/03/17 12:19 PM Reply


      • I agree that Wood Yer can go well but I don like it as much as Lord Heathfield.

        Marcin Sudol 05/03/17 3:28 PM Reply


  • of to a wet huntingdon today if my memory is right someone on here put up militerian last time it was due to run think it was storm doris day so will be backing that in the first might as well have a bob or two on josh tip any other fancys from you learned NH punters would be appreciated I couldn’t pick a jump winner even if it was 1/10 thanks antony

    antony church 05/03/17 9:53 AM Reply


    • Hi Antony

      Have a look at 4.40 LEOP
      WITNESS TO FASHION 33/1
      Stable landed a nice gamble yesterday….. This one’s got a similar profile.

      Jarrod Holmes 05/03/17 10:59 AM Reply


    • I mentioned it LTO although he was 100/1 than. Doesn’t seem much depth to the race so looks a decent enough e/w bet. Trainer has had 3 winners and a 2nd from his last 6 runners.

      Nick Mazur 05/03/17 11:11 AM Reply


      • Hi Nick,
        Seems to be a pattern – that is returning to the track within a week?

        SUAS SIOS did it quite easy yesterday… I think he still had a fair bit in reserve.

        Let’s hope for the same again.!

        Jarrod Holmes 05/03/17 11:35 AM Reply


        • Hi Nick,

          Looks like the money is coming for it now. Just hope it’s not us lot ….with stable money down!

          Jarrod Holmes 05/03/17 1:09 PM Reply


      • Into 11/2 from 12/1 and 4th FML. That typifies my luck right now.

        Nick Mazur 05/03/17 2:07 PM Reply


  • Too wet to go outside today, well it is in Derby. Nice freebies from Timeform today for a good read. First is a 24 page form recap of last years festival to get you in the mood. The second is the Leopardstown card. John

    John Begg 05/03/17 10:20 AM Reply


  • I had a look at Braw Angus early this morning and thought it was a place only bet, the race being packed with other unknowns like him. Bred to like the mud, imo, but could need even more of a stamina test too.

    Chris Rees 05/03/17 10:38 AM Reply


    • Yep, tend to probably agree with you Chris but given trainer stats/his form/TTP/Ratings etc, and fact that it does feel open enough- price of Bailey’s other suggests he may hack up but ground/trip unknown for him also- i thought 8s just about ok, esp as Moore’s came out also, and he seemed to have a solid chance. He may just not be very good but will find out more here. Like you I get impression this is full of a few lurkers who may make a sudden leap forward – just the kind of race a small yard would target.

      Josh 05/03/17 11:46 AM Reply


    • Congratulations, Josh 🙂

      Chris Rees 05/03/17 2:56 PM Reply


  • No duffer ran well yesterday but no cigar,the one that interests me today is Nail’M in the 2.20 Sedgefield although i missed the 20/1 last night its had a bit of support into 12/1,2p’s to his name recently over fences,now reverts to hurdles,interesting booking in Danny Cook,he might just enjoy the change(or might be useless and regressing,Hawke is in a bit of form now,been of the boil for ages before

    gerry 05/03/17 11:01 AM Reply


    • Good luck Gerry, yep must admit he sparked some minor interest when I had a look through- the Cook booking and Hawkes recent form caught my eye – as well as knowing the horse given number of 3m+ chases he’s been in etc. 12s may be getting short enough and can see why some would have rolled dice at bigger odds- IF he returns to form and this is a right old slog he will be thereabouts. His form suggests a mental issue though, rather than all being down to poor yard form- you would expect even sick horses to run a tad better, and just be weak as race progresses- he has struggled from early on in recent races, but maybe something up. GL

      Josh 05/03/17 11:29 AM Reply


      • what about his other Horse Arcadian.

        David walker 05/03/17 12:26 PM Reply


  • Josh Kim think’s Braw Angus is to high and the softer the ground the better for Fifty Bob.

    owen 05/03/17 11:46 AM Reply


    • Oh joy! That would suggest he is clearly devoid of much ability then, if he things this mark is high enough- and given stable mate lines up/supported, would then suggest he may have a few runs to get the mark down. Damn! Well, money is down, nothing too severe, hopefully he is wrong!!

      Josh 05/03/17 11:49 AM Reply


      • Braw Josh!

        John 05/03/17 2:37 PM Reply


  • Leop. 2:10 – Tycoon Prince 4/1

    Gordon Elliott stated at the start of the season that this one was the best handicapped in the yard. May also be worth a look for Cheltenham engagements in the County and Martin Pipe hurdles (around 25’s in both).

    Chris R.

    Chris 05/03/17 12:21 PM Reply


    • A bit late posting now but Elliott mentioned at the Betfair preview on Wednesday that Tycoon Prince is being readied for the Spring festivals and is best left today

      Joe H 05/03/17 4:56 PM Reply


  • nice call Josh

    John Begg 05/03/17 2:40 PM Reply


    • Cheers John, well he was a TTP/Ratings Pointer/10/ horse, 13.00 BFSP, and those are now 9/57, +76 BFSP in 2017 so don’t need much over thinking- but he had a few supporting stats/profile to support him. It’s been a good weekend on that front again.

      Josh 05/03/17 2:42 PM Reply


  • Good shout Josh…I got 10s…a pity about the 2nd who collapsed after the finish line…very hard going there. I hope it’s ok.

    Back on line mate …. cheers.

    Tony Mc.

    tonymc 05/03/17 2:42 PM Reply


    • Ah has he, missed that. Bugger. I hope it’s exhaustion and not another Many Clouds. Poor bugger. Fingers crossed.

      Josh 05/03/17 2:43 PM Reply


      • Well done Josh,2 things learned there,trust the stats,Bailey is obviously a straight trainer,could easily have asked for a tame ride for Braw if he needed few pounds off

        gerry 05/03/17 3:07 PM Reply


        • Yep, I think Kim is very straight… believe he charges 10 per month for exclusive thoughts on all his runners, used to check out his blog as they were free but haven’t bothered paying haha. Everything on paper suggested he could do that, and I had to take that price personally, given everything.

          Josh 05/03/17 3:09 PM Reply


  • £25 bet 8/1 with Totesport money back if 2nd

    £275 return

    Not even a Tip from Josh

    Big Booooooom!!!

    It’s been a while between drinks but I am on the Old Peculiar !!!

    Joe 05/03/17 3:14 PM Reply


    • Good stuff Joe, shame I didn’t ‘tip’ him.. well we did have the Pipe winner 8s, couple weekends back, think I have just about given that all back with tips since, maybe still 1 point up haha. I do need to update my tipping spreadsheet, part of me doesn’t want to stare at the carnage – prob down for the year but not by much I don’t think/hope!

      Josh 05/03/17 3:39 PM Reply


  • Well done Josh what does Kim know.

    owen 05/03/17 5:26 PM Reply


    • I saw his interview after and you could tell he was a bit embarrassed! reckon he may have told the owner/breeder he may struggle, but was clearly there to run his race if good enough. Shows sod all at home apparently which was reason for lack of confidence.

      Josh 05/03/17 8:28 PM Reply


Post A Reply