TTP Jumps Notes: SAT 04/03/17 (complete)

1.The Ratings Pointers

2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.The Ratings Pointers

HorseRaceBase

Top Rated

2.40 Newb – Bloody Mary UP

Top 3

5.10 Kelso – McGinty’s Dream

 

Geegeez Speed

Top Rated

1.30 Newb- Hello George WON 4/1>5/2 (6/1 last night,record morning price)

3.15 Newb- More Bucks PU

Top 3

2.05 Newb – Just A Par WON 14/1 , 18.00 BFSP (about time we had a RP 10/1+ winner)

5.10 Kel – McGinty’s Dream 

 

2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

NEWBURY

1.30 –

Oscarteea (hncp h) 14,30 10/1 UP 6/1

Hello George (micro class) 4/1 WON 5/2

2.05

Rocky Creek (hncp chase)14,30  10/1 UP

Just A Par (hncp chase)14,30 14/1 WON 14/1, 18.00 BFSO

Shotavodka (hncp chase) 8/1 3rd

2.40 – Bloody Mary (micro age) 14,30 7/4 UP

3.15 –

Thomas Crapper (all hncps) 10/1 WON 10/1>8/1

Vibrato Valtat (hncp chase + micro distance) 14,30  8/1 UP

More Bucks (hncp chase) 14,30  10/1 PU 8/1

 

DONCASTER

3.35 – Sego Success (all hncps + hncp chase) 15/2 UP

 

KELSO

4.35 – Achill Road Boy (hncp chase) (ignore that,non qualifier)

5.10 –

Zaru (hncp hurdle) 14/1 14

McGinty’s Dream (micro distance) 2/1 14

 

3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

My Bet of The Day… test (0/4,0p)… (maybe we will rename to Lay of the day!)

There are two that look really interesting to me, one is 12/1 the other is 3/1. The latter will probably hack up and that price may be ok,but given everything, I am going to have to go with MORE BUCKS (PU, not his running, only I could be confident on one of the few Nicholls horses not to win on the day!)  in the 3.15 at 12/1… (who I think I may have to ‘tip’ on the free post also)

He is 3/7,4p over fences and there could be more to come at some point. I like the fact that I think he should be able to do as he pleased up front, the other pace angle being his stablemate but surely they won’t take each other on and VV has a stamina niggle so they may try and nurse him home. Hopefully Bowen can get into a rhythm and dictate this from the front – if he can do that and he jumps well, we should get a good run for our money. Fontwell proved he handles soft I think and hopefully there are no excuses. He is also top rated on Geegeez Speed which coupled with being able to dictate could be a positive also.

Then there are the stats and the trends. Age 6-8 looks key, 0-1 run this season looks a negative- and that would leave 4 of them, the selection, and numbers 1,3,4. Given Nicholl’s record in this it is hard not to go for one of his. It all seems a bit too easy really- solid on the stats/trends, great trainer record in race, horse likely to lead. What could go wrong??

Nicholl’s is in solid enough form at the moment and when this one last ran I think they were quiet, coming out of the end of their winter vaccination phase. The time before that at Kempton he got in a pace battle for a lot of the way and gave out late. This drop in trip/ground combo may be ideal. And the form of some of his races has worked out well, producing plenty of future winners anyway.

At the prices I have to go with him. 12s seems big. If he isn’t backed, that may well be a solid 0/5,0p on the ‘bet of the day front’. Solid start!

Of the rest… well I think McGinty’s Dream could take all the beating in the 5.10 and I think 3s is probably fair. He needs a bit of a test of stamina I think. His last race was run at a crawl and was over shorter. He hacked up the time before that in a race which is working out well. Hughes has been booked and TJC are 5/10,8p in handicaps. The trainer is in belting form also, 3/5,4p last 14 days. There is a bit of pace to aim at I think and he will relish a slog. I can see him staying best of this lot in the conditions.

Henderson’s horse, Bloody Mary, in the 2.40 looks interesting at 10/3 also…given her profile and form behind Limini at Cheltenham last March. I suspect Henderson will have her tuned up for this. The market will guide. If he is smashed in it could be fun, if she drifts then maybe another day awaits. Unexposed and potentially smart.

Those were the three who looked good to my dodgy eyes.

Nothing more to add this morning really.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

The Cheltenham Festival 2017 Resources post is a work in progress, the main stats/trends report up so far HERE>>>

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SAT BIG RACE TRENDS POINTERS

No ‘full profiles’ as such this week, but some pointers…

Newbury: 2.05 – Veteran’s Chase

7/9 Age 10

  • 7/41,17p
    • 11+ : 2/49,9p

7/9 Top 3 in market at off

31-60 days rest: 0/24,2p (could be just a random stat,to be ignored)

carried 10-3 to 10-4 (exc jock claims) : 4/8 runners, 4p… +28 SP (of interest)

4+ handicap chase wins: 0/21,4p

Track LTO: Wincanton + Sandown: 5/23,7p.. +21

Trainers:

  • D Pipe: 3/8,4p
  • 1 win: George/Nicholls/Sherwood/V Williams/P Hobbs
  • A King: 0/4,0p

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3.15 Newbury: Greatwood Gold Cup

13/14 Age 6-8

  • 9+ : 1/83,16p

6th or worse LTO (but completed): 0/32,6p

0-1 runs this season: 0/14,0p

4+ track runs: 0/20,4p

Trainers:-

  • P Nicholls: 8/26,11p… +41 SP (just back his two?? May well work until he retires)
  • 1 win: Pipe/V Williams/N Henderson/P Hobbs

Track LTO:-

  • Kempton: 3/15,5p
  • 1 wins: Chelt + Ascot
  • 1 win: Many
  • Newbury: 0/13,1p

 

That will be it for any ‘stats pointers’. The Grimthorpe at Donny has some trends etc but with only 7 runners I am not sure how useful would be, 5 of the last 7 had 11/12/14 runners.

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

9 Comments

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  • Update: 4th

    Chris Rees 03/03/17 3:34 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh,is Achill Road Boy a qualifier? As according to
    my records Coltherds runners only qualify in Handicap Hurdles.

    chris williams 03/03/17 3:39 PM Reply


    • Thanks Chris x2 ! Not sure what has gone on there. Cheers. Your records are quiet correct.

      Josh 03/03/17 3:43 PM Reply


  • A long distance traveller today.

    Newc. 5:45 – Faience 3/1

    3 wins from 9 runners
    LSP -0.53

    Chris R.

    Chris 04/03/17 1:58 PM Reply


  • Josh wrote…… (about time we had a RP 10/1+ winner). For me it’s 11 bets since Carrigdhoun won on the 20th last month. 18.0 BFSP puts me 6pts up so is nothing to complain about. You need a really ‘sharp pin’ if you hope to make a profit from backing the shorties, so I’ll stick with the long shots. 🙂

    Have you posted the results spreadsheet yet?

    Tim

    Tim 04/03/17 4:07 PM Reply


    • Hi Tim, I will update the RP spreadsheet on Sunday. That task kept slipping to the bottom of my list. The main one has been up earlier in the week. On my maths after today the RP 10/1 + approach is 8/56, + 64 BFSP in 2017. They wiped their face in Feb, 2/24 0 or so. The bigger priced ones are where the profit is to be had I think. And certainly best not over thinking RP 10/1 + shots.
      Josh

      Josh 04/03/17 4:15 PM Reply


  • That’s strange because I had a good month in Feb. In fact they’ve all been good so far. I’ll dig out the actual bets if they are of interest, but IIRC / I was about +/- 20 points for Feb’.

    It’s probably down to me not using a hard and fast rule about the odds I’m prepared to take. For example 10/1 about a horse in an 8 runner field where I believe there are only 4 other horses in contention would be big odds, but 10/1 in an 18 runner field where I’m struggling to rule out half the field would be poor unless I knew something about the horse that no one else knew about, but that rarely happens to me these days.

    Occasionally we all get beat by a ‘no hoper’, so I tend to bunch all the outsiders together and add an extra point to my assessment. So if I believe that my horse has 6 rivals in a 12 runner field for example, I’ll say 7 just to cover the unexpected.

    Tim

    Tim 04/03/17 4:44 PM Reply


    • Someone should check out the stats at HRB, but my hypothesis is that a 10/1 shot has roughly the same chances of winning in a 3 horse field or a 20 horse field. The field size is accounted into the odds. That’s why sometimes even the top favorite is a 10/1.

      John 04/03/17 9:56 PM Reply


  • I very rarely take an O/S out but today after Just a Par went in, I counted how many I had in the 3.15 from all sources so I dropped 3 and increased my stake on O’Mainli…I thought it was swing ging on the bridle til that jumping error.
    O…LOL…one I pulled out of backing was Thomas Crapper…o well. lol.

    Tony Mc

    tonymc 04/03/17 5:09 PM Reply


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