TTP Jumps Notes: 03/03/17 (complete)

1.The Ratings Pointers

2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.The Ratings Pointers

HorseRaceBase

Top Rated

4.20 Newb – Reilly’s Minor UP

Top 3

4.20 Newb – Bendomingo UP

Geegeez Speed

Top Rated

none.

Top 3

4.20 Newb – Reilly’s Minor UP/ Bendomingo UP

 

2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

NEWBURY 

3.15 – Keep Moving (micro class) 30 13/2 UP

4.20 –

Reilly’s Minor (all hncps + hncp hurdle) 9/2 UP

Hadfield (hncp hurdle) 14,30 10/1 UP

Bendomingo (hncp hurdle) 8/1 UP

 

DONCASTER…

I don’t think there are any..

 

3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

Let’s start with the 10/1+ ‘qualifiers’… well on morning prices Hadfield is the only potential one today. I wouldn’t be shocked if Bendomingo drifted to 11.00+ on the machine..

Hadfield…well he has some questions to answer after that last run, but on the positive side he is unexposed (2/7,4p), there could be more to come at some point,esp over this trip, and he is down in class. He was coming to challenge for the stats at Ffos Las two starts ago when he absolutely clattered into one and lost all chance, staying on again near the end. He looks a bit tricky and I can only think, given the 55 day break,that there may have been an issue LTO. I won’t blame soft ground for that although it is a question now also. His jockey is 2/42,9p in handicap hurdles but one of those wins was his last ride, which happened to be his first for Mulholland. The trainer also couldn’t be in better form, 5/25,8p last 14 days. Well, i suppose you can be in better form than that, but it is pretty solid. They are going well. Now that run at Ffos Las two starts ago hasn’t worked out well (0/15,1p since) but I don’t think we have seen the best of him. You would want a double figure price on him, and I will roll the dice. It looks a puzzle of a race and you could give some sort of chance to most of these…

The other two in the race that qualify look interesting also. The Greatrex one could win this again, 9/2 may be ok, but he is up in the weights,9lb,and wasn’t an easy ride the last day, hanging badly late on.  He will need to improve again, which is may do. Bendomingo… Twister is 0/29,7p in the last 14 days which is a bit of a niggle and the horse has yet to win in his career, and also soft is a real unknown/concern. The fact he has been kept to good may be an indication of what connections think. He has been consistent but , famous last words, looks the weakest of the three to my eye. They all have the Vaughan horse to beat it would seem.

 

My Bet Of The Day... test (0/3,0p)…an inauspicious start although it wouldn’t have mattered which one I picked out yesterday! But for being a better value judge and having some ‘tipping’ bottle with the Sandy Thompson winner (always easy to go for a shorter priced one) it may have been a decent start but we soldier on. I do want to try and pick out one a day, where possible… I am not leaping out of my chair to back anything today but…

I will go with Hadfield (oh well they did have the Vaughan horse to beat and it wasn’t an open contest!! Hadfield can’t jump and clearly wasn’t good enough, disappointed he couldn’t place but there we go. There was no market movement and he drifted on BF which in the end told its own story) the market may guide here, any drift from 10s and that may be 0/4,0p but he is lightly raced, unexposed at the trip and the trainer is in decent form. And he drops in class. I have just looked at Mulhollands PU LTO stats and they are decent, esp in handicaps, and handicap hurdles… 7/51,14p,+17 SP. When returning 46-60 days they are 2/8,5p. So, hopefully whatever caused that PU lto is no longer a problem, and that he jumps well here. It feels an open race, and maybe I should have left Bet of the Day given two others line up – potential for disaster, but I will play him at 10s.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

CHELTENHAM…

I will get a link to the first stats/trends report up today, in tomorrow’s post. The first one will have all the stats in for the 10 handicaps –  i have one more race to complete this morning. You can use these to pick out your own ‘winning profile’. This year I have gone with 10 year trends, but will put up the link again to last years report that had 19 trends in. Next I will put all of the ‘winning profiles’ – the stats I will use to shortlist- in a separate report and I will attempt to get that done today also.

There will be a separate ‘bonus race’ report- I haven’t worked out which other races to highlight yet but there will be a handful, and I may skim through some others and see if there are any ‘race micro angles’ that may look of interest.

Next I will be finalising any micro systems/angles that I will focus on for the week, and where I will be posting ‘qualifiers’ and also any general handicap stats.

So, that will be drip fed over the coming days and I want it all in place by close of play Tuesday.

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