TTP Jumps Notes: 02/03/2017 (complete)

1.The Ratings Pointers

2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.The Ratings Pointers

HorseRaceBase

Top Rated

2.50 Lud – Some Are Lucky (bonus) 2nd

Top 3

4.45 Taunt – Norse Light UP

4.00 Lud – Roc D’Apsis UP / Nansaray 2nd

4.35 Lud – Still Believing UP

 

Geegeez Speed

Top Rated

4.45 Taunt – Norse Light UP

Top 3

4.35 Lud – Still Believing UP

2.50 Lud – Some Are Lucky (bonus) 2nd

 

2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

TAUNTON

2.30- Zama Zama (all hncps + micro runs this season) 13/2 UP

4.10 – Roadie Joe (all hncps+hncp hurdles) 9/2 UP

4.45 –

Jonagold (all hncps) 11/2 UP

Norse Light (micro – age) 5/1 UP

 

LUDLOW

4.00-

Roc D’Apsis (all hncps + hncp chase+ micros TJC+class) 14,30  7/2 UP

Nansaray (micro TJC + distance) 4/1 UP

Belmount (micro going IF HEAVY)

4.35 – Still Believing (micro TJC + distance) 15/2 UP

 

Bonus

2.50 Lud- Some Are Lucky 5/2 2nd

3.35 Taunt – Earthmoves 5/1 UP

 

 

3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

No 10/1+ shots to discuss today but hopefully yesterday’s winner can be built on in the coming days.

My Bet of The Day Test… (0/2,0p = -2) Today looks tricky but the most interesting one to my eye  at the prices is Norse Light 5/1,11/2… He s top rated on geegeez speed figures by quite some way here which hopefully is a good sign. This one has spent most of his career over hurdles but he is unexposed over fences, 0/5,2p. Noel Fehily has been on for two of those chases and has gone close on him, so of some interest that he is back on board today. He had a fall a few races ago before he had been asked for a real effort, a few from home, and it seems they sent him back to hurdles to gain some confidence. He ran well two starts ago, not so well the last day – maybe a combination or trip and class, possibly the latter finding him out. He had won over 16f on heavy so I don’t necessarily want to blame that. He has run well over fences on good ground. Around 5s seems fair in what is a poor race where everything has some sort of question. Provided he stands up, if he repeats either of his placed efforts over fences he should be going close here.

I suppose Roc D’Apsis may look the next best/as interesting, but he is 7/2, not 5s… I have always doubted whether he wants 3m but he is against a few other unproven stayers in here and that last run, and that one at Kempton a few starts back, suggest that against this lot he may stay it just fine. He probably has some of the best chase form on offer and may appreciate this soft ground. Trainer in cracking form and this is an easy enough 3m, if he is ever going to win a chase over that distance it is probably here, and he did bump into one the last day. No such unexposed types lining up today really. He looks solid.

Good luck with whatever you go with today, if anything.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Results Update: ALL QUALS>> CLICK HERE>>>

I will do an end of month ‘review’ at some point before the week is out. Safe to say Feb makes for rather painful reading. on the ‘backing everything’ front. In part that is a natural correction after what was a mad January profit wise.

On the ‘advised/discussed’ strategies around the 10/1+ approach..

Backing all 10/1+ shots was painful. They made +158 points in Jan, and on my calculation looked to have lost/given back -68 points in Feb. (at least March is +13 up after 1 day on that front!!)

Just focusing on the 10/1+ shots that were also in the Ratings Pointers section… 2/24 = around break even, 0, after commission. So, less painful.

Anyway I will have a proper look asap. In the context of just looking at Feb- horrendous. The overall picture looks fine, for now.

I will complete/update the separate ‘ratings pointers’ spreadsheet asap also. If you spot any errors in the one above do say so and I will correct (a missed winner of 10??)

 

5. Hunter Chase Live Test

Jockeys (33/1<)

5.05 Lud – Invisible Man

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

2 Comments

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  • A nice 9/2 winner today to put us in credit, and another long distance traveller tomorrow:

    Newc. 4:55 – Bargain Buy 11/4 (12/1 max)

    3 winners from 8 runners.
    LSP +0.47 pts

    Chris R.

    broadsword 01/03/17 8:48 PM Reply


    • Cheers Chris I was on it….Thanks.
      BOL cheers.
      Tony Mc

      tonymc 02/03/17 12:00 PM Reply


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