TTP Jumps Notes: 28/02/17 (complete)

1.The Ratings Pointers

2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.The Ratings Pointers

HorseRaceBase

Top Rated

3.40 Leic- Drumviredy

Top 3

3.40 Leic- Hollow Blue Sky 

2.20 Catt- Nafaath UP 11/1

4.50 Catt – Bruce Almighty  

 

Geegeez Speed

Top Rated

none.

Top 3

3.40 Leic- Hollow Blue Sky 

2.20 Catt- Nafaath UP 11/1

3.20 Catt – Nomoreblackjack WON 5/2>7/4

4.50 Catt- Bruce Almighty 

 

2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

LEICESTER

3.40 –

Drumviredy (all hncps+hncp chase) 11/4

Hollow Blue Sky (all hncps+ micro class) 5/1

 

CATTERICK 

2.20 – Nafaath (all hncps + micro distance + going) 5/1 UP 11/1

3.20 –

Kilronan Castle (all hncps + hncp chase+ micro going + distance) 8/1 2nd 4/1

Nomoreblackjack (all hncps + hncp chase + micro TJC) 5/2 WON 7/4

4.50 – Bruce Almighty (all hncps+ micro going) 11/2

 

3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

I may try an experiment and attempt to highlight a ‘bet of the day’ in this little section, using all quals/ratings pointers as a starting point. No doubt many of you non systematic backers do exactly that also, or in any case may home in on the odd one you fancy more than others. Of course it may turn out that I should just stick to the stats and of course it is my subjective view- which most of the time is questionable. There appears to be a reason I like a stats based approach! 🙂 (even if Feb has been challenging)

So, my ‘bet of the day’… well if NoMoreBlackJack was 7/2+ I would probably nominate him. Everything we know about him, inc that last run, suggests he will devour this step up in trip. He will have gained experience on that last run and I wonder if Cook will now adopt more aggressive tactics. They must be confident he will relish every yard of this trip. If there was a ‘banker’- on this page today, I think it may be him. He looks the most exciting. But, 9/4,2/1 getting short enough for me. He may make that look a big price though. Bar a fall I can see him demolishing that lot as he could have any amount in hand at this distance, and further. (cue, fall at first)

But, for my ‘bet of the day’ I will go with Nafaath, (UP 5/1>11/1, market told the story this time,I thought he looked good on paper! Solid start) who at 5s I think just offers a tad of value. I wouldn’t want shorter than that as there are a couple of niggles but… on the positive side, he is 2/3,2p in C5 handicaps, 3/4 in all C5 hurdle races, and 3/6,3p when OR100 or below. He also comes from a ‘hot form’ race LTO… the winner has since bolted up again, the second has placed, and the horse that finished just behind Nafaath has since gone in two times since. So, there is some strength to that form. He drops in class here, has course form, and looks likely to run an OK race. The doubts? Well McCain is now 0/23,4p in the last 14 days, but a few have gone close enough. Maybe he is hitting a cold spell. Then there is the distance… not fully proven over it although he did win over 20f in a maiden hurdle. He also came a running on place at Royal Ascot back in the day, in the Ascot Stakes handicap over 20f. And they will plod at a slower pace in this, than they did that day. And finally, he has never raced over this distance in class 5. He has placed a couple of times at C4 and gone close enough for me to think at this level he is worth a dart.

So, on balance, at 5s, I personally think there is just enough to go on there.

My own punting on these pages invariably focuses on the biggies but maybe if I pull my finger out and use the tools at my disposal my ‘bet of the day’ may be another string to the bow. We shall see. I have much to improve on punting wise, away from a stats based approach, so treat that lot with a pinch of salt, for now!  Don’t take my focus on a ‘bet of the day’ horse as a negative for others as such, it is my subjective view after all. But you will always know the reasons why and can ignore as you see fit.

I will keep a running tab so I can publicly drag my self over hot coals if this approach is no good!

At present there are no 11.00+ qualifiers although maybe Kilronan Castle may drift into that range, he has a few questions to answer and I can’t see how he beats Nomoreblackjack if he stands up, famous last words.

GL with whatever you fancy, if anything today.

 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Free Report… looking at the Festival with a focus on Jockeys. You can flick through that HERE>>>

 

5. Hunter Chase- Live Test 

Trainers (16/1<)

3.10 Leic  – Penmore Mill

Jockeys  (33/1<)

3.10 Leic – Penmore Mill

 

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