FREE DAILY POST: 28/02/17 (complete)

PLEASE NOTE: My ‘techie friend’ as I affectionately call him has been upgrading the sites security and doing some things that are above my head, but in theory should mean that there are no ‘this site is insecure’ warnings, which usually sends a feeling of concern coursing through a reader’s veins. The site is more secure than it was, although there was nothing to worry about before, but it will be better moving forwards. It would appear that on the odd different browser, different ‘this site is insecure’ messages crop up. It may be something specific with Google. My friend thinks he knows the problem and will be sorting it asap. I should stress, for anyone concerned, that A) the site isn’t less secure than it used to be and B) I do not deal with payment details etc- all of that is secure through Paypal’s and/or ClickBank’s systems. All email addresses are secure through both Getresponse and in my membership software which is all protected. 

Any questions, fire away. I won’t be able to answer them, but my friend may! 

 

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TIPS 

none.

 

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live Test

3.20 Catt- Nomoreblackjack (12/1<) WON 5/2>7/4

 

Handicap hurdle/chase portfolio – live test

2.20 Cat – Pertuis UP

 

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Not much else today but I will repeat below a section from Today’s Members Post… as you know those daily jumps notes posts are a stats based/trainer based approach, with qualifiers against my stats pack and some ratings pointers from HRB and Geegeez Gold/Speed. There is a section where I discuss any 10/1+ shots (that is where the big long term profit looks to be) but I thought I should dabble in highlighting a ‘bet of the day’, if there is one to be had…that is my subjective view based on the stats picks as a starting point, using the other tools available to me to highlight what stands out to my faltering eyes…so… as a treat, or indeed a curse… from the members post…

So, my ‘bet of the day’… well if NoMoreBlackJack (3.20 Catt) WON 9/4>7/4  was 7/2+ I would probably nominate him. Everything we know about him, inc that last run, suggests he will devour this step up in trip. He will have gained experience on that last run and I wonder if Cook will now adopt more aggressive tactics. They must be confident he will relish every yard of this trip. If there was a ‘banker’- on this page today, I think it may be him. He looks the most exciting. But, 9/4,2/1 getting short enough for me. He may make that look a big price though. Bar a fall I can see him demolishing that lot as he could have any amount in hand at this distance, and further. (cue, fall at first)

But, for my ‘bet of the day’ I will go with Nafaath,(2.20 Catt) (UP 5/1>11/1, market told the story this time,I thought he looked good on paper! Solid start)  who at 5s I think just offers a tad of value. I wouldn’t want shorter than that as there are a couple of niggles but… on the positive side, he is 2/3,2p in C5 handicaps, 3/4 in all C5 hurdle races, and 3/6,3p when OR100 or below. He also comes from a ‘hot form’ race LTO… the winner has since bolted up again, the second has placed, and the horse that finished just behind Nafaath has since gone in two times since. So, there is some strength to that form. He drops in class here, has course form, and looks likely to run an OK race. The doubts? Well McCain is now 0/23,4p in the last 14 days, but a few have gone close enough. Maybe he is hitting a cold spell. Then there is the distance… not fully proven over it although he did win over 20f in a maiden hurdle. He also came a running on place at Royal Ascot back in the day, in the Ascot Stakes handicap over 20f. And they will plod at a slower pace in this, than they did that day. And finally, he has never raced over this distance in class 5. He has placed a couple of times at C4 and gone close enough for me to think at this level he is worth a dart.

So, on balance, at 5s, I personally think there is just enough to go on there.

 

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If you missed my free Festival Jockeys report you can grab that HERE>>>

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That will be all for today.

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

14 Comments

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  • It’s been quiet on here lately, so I’ll tip one nail. Just to cheer you lot up, so there are some proper bad tipsters around. My advice is; not to back it, just watch the race and cheer him up so he wins for me. I went £1 EW – yes I know it gets serious!!! 🙂 The horse is – Sunny Ledgend 340 Leicester.
    Good luck with whatever you backing as long as it’s not different horse in my race 😉

    Marcin Sudol 28/02/17 1:16 AM Reply


    • Ah well you have to keep the betting fun and enjoyable Marcin! Cue the inevitable ‘why didn’t i have more on’ when he hacks up, always the way!! GL – yep I reckon/hope it may be a post Festival lull and in fairness the mid week fare hasn’t been great in recent weeks!

      Josh 28/02/17 8:59 AM Reply


  • slightly off topic, i have always fancied joining a racing ownership club and now have the means to do so, does anyone know anything about http://www.ownaracehorse.co.uk/ as it is local to me and has horses trained nearby. just looking for fun day outs,owners badge not expecting a derby or gold cup winner.

    martin whittle 28/02/17 8:34 AM Reply


    • Hi Martin…
      nothing horse based is ever really off-topic here!

      I hadn’t heard of them but all seems legit and they do have a twitter presence with 802 followers and regular enough tweets- as a sign of life!

      That does look like a good model, a one of fee for the racing season and they transfer your share if the horse suffers a long term injury.

      It looks like a good model to me. And there looks plenty of info in which to do some digging, a variety of different trainers/horses etc- and you should be able to home in on one that may interest you.

      Having owned a couple of legs with Matt B/Geegeez Syndicate in the past, I would stress the importance of having something local to you. I drive, but don’t own a car (waste of money given I live in central liverpool) and those southern based yards can be hard to get to/a long trek- or they were for me as I was living back in suffolk at the time…

      That type of ownership is all about the visits to the tracks to watch them race and also the yard visits, to watch them train, to have breakfast with the gang, etc etc.

      It looks like that site will provide everything you want- financial certainty, your choice of which share/horse, fun days out to the races, trips to the stables… and if you go for one of the unexposed 2 year olds say, you can but dream of glory!! (i for example would want to check trainers record with lightly raced/unraced 2 year olds- I assume those who run the site have done such things, but your own research would never hurt)

      GL, and keep us all posted!

      Nick M may have some views, he is in a decent/respected syndicate at present..

      Josh

      Josh 28/02/17 9:06 AM Reply


      • i’m in north yorkshire and they have a decent looking 2YO Autumn Belle trained locally by Ollie Pears i have emailed the yard to see if they have any plans to race her nearby as i’m looking for day outs ,yard visits etc.

        martin whittle 28/02/17 10:57 AM Reply


        • One yard that might be worth contacting – Sam England http://www.samdrakeracing.com

          Looks like they’re Leeds way, not sure if it would work for you. But it’s a shrewd yard that appears to know what they’ve got and how to get the best. Could well be going places…and if Alzammaar makes it to either the Pertemps (ideally, and they got it qualified) or the Martin Pipe and runs well I suspect they’ll be attracting more money.

          Stephen Cross 28/02/17 11:37 AM Reply


  • Think the Hammond yard may have be expecting good runs from their two today….

    Pertuis 2.20 and Waterclock 4.50

    Pertuis already mentioned above. Jockey has won on the horse on the flat , and Pertuis has winning flat form off layoffs + form in a couple of class 3 hurdles. Probably couldn’t run to that level any more but this class 5 wouldn’t look beyond a possibility.

    Waterclock looks interesting with jockey on who has good (although limited) course/yard record. Clearly Aengus has biggish claims, but this is much further than the easy win last time and WaterClock has some long distance/hvy hurdles form which suggests the current 18-1 is worth a small dabble.

    Not too hard to see both placed.

    Stephen Cross 28/02/17 11:52 AM Reply


    • A reliable contact, not stable connected, suggests that Waterclock may be aimed at the series final and I note that its last two wins were on quick going.

      chrisrees 28/02/17 12:18 PM Reply


      • Thx Chris, saved me a tenner!

        Stephen Cross 28/02/17 7:58 PM Reply


  • Martin
    I own many shares via http://www.keyracingnews.com/ in partnership with Middleham Park Racing and Nick Bradley racing
    Horses with Richard Fahey, Keith Dalgleish, Roger Fell and many others others.
    Plenty of chances to get owners badges.
    A very cheap way to get full owner benefits and be involved with high quality horses, eg
    Ventura Storm, 2nd St Leger, and many other Group and listed winners/placed.
    We have a strong cohort of quality NH horses too.

    chrisrees 28/02/17 12:07 PM Reply


    • I can echo chris’s comments as I am also involved in the same set up, in a number of syndicates. I have found the ownership experience similar to previous ownership experiences where I have held much more significant percentages of horses. Good opportunities for stable visits and reports on progress. The only real difference is badge availability if you in a good one that runs at top class meetings. There is though often the opportunity to buy tickets to the right areas as opposed to having free ones as a right.

      Edward Crisp 28/02/17 3:39 PM Reply


  • Regarding bet of the day. Erratic ride from jockey from start to finish + mistakes. I think it was a cracking tip. Next time out in similar conditions and he will go well. Definitely on the tracker!!!

    Marcin Sudol 28/02/17 4:14 PM Reply


    • Hmm maybe- I think he had a mental off day- was travelling very well up there, then made error/slow jump up straight,and fell back through field- then a kind of moody run from there. He did double in price- ticked plenty of boxes on paper- and he is 11 I suppose. Glad the Smith one ran well, hindsight a wonderful thing but made 5/2 look a massive price, which I thought he might – but that end of the market always causes me problems! Well, most parts of the market at the moment!

      I won’t blame the jockey, she has given Danceintothelight or whatever he is called a couple of crackers around there this season for TTP backers.

      Good old Sunny won well i see! Will pay for a few beers 🙂

      Josh 28/02/17 4:26 PM Reply


      • I blame the jockey, no bad feelings though 🙂 Yeah Sunny will pay for few more bets hahahhaa

        Marcin Sudol 28/02/17 4:56 PM Reply


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