TTP Jumps Notes: SAT 25/02/17 (complete)

1.The Ratings Pointers

2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

4.Any general messages/updates etc

**

1.The Ratings Pointers

HorseRaceBase

Top Rated

4.15 Chep- Bright New Dawn UP

4.45 Kemp – Champ 2nd 4/6

Top 3

3.40 Chep – Soupy Soups UP

4.50 Chep – Mondeligo WON! 11/2>5/1

1.15 Kemp – Coastal Tiep 2nd

4.10 Kemp – Full Shift UP / Lemons Gent UP

 

Geegeez Speed

Top Rated

3.40 Chep – Rolling Maul UP

3.35 Kemp – Opening Batsman UP

4.10 Kemp – Easy Street 2nd 

Top 3

3.40 Chep- Splash of Ginge

1.15 Kemp- Rainy City UP

3.35 Kemp – Cocktails At Dawn Fell

4.10 Kemp – Ballycoe UP

 

2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

CHEPSTOW

3.40 –

Soupy Soups (all hncps) 12/1 UP

Rolling Maul (all hncps) 16/1 UP

Solstice Star (hncp h) 40/1 UP

Splash of Ginge (micro going IF HEAVY)

 

4.15 – Bright New Dawn (hncp c) 7/2 UP

4.50 – Modeligo (all hncps) 11/2 WON! 11/2>5/1

5.20- Ffeebee (NHF) 50/1 – PU (went wrong/cannoned into maybe)

 

KEMPTON

1.15 –

Alibi De Sivola (all hncps+hurdle+micro age) 10/1 UP

Argante (all hncps + hurdle+ micros TJC/Age/Runs this season) 11/2 UP

Rainy City (micro going) 11/1 UP

Coastel Tiep (micro horse runs 90 days, + micro going) 11/2 2nd 

 

3.35 –

Cocktails At Dawn (all hncps + chase+ micros TJC/Runs this season) 20/1 Fell

Triolo D’Alene (all hcnps + chase + micro runs this season) 16/1 PU

Opening Batsman (all hncps) 14/1 UP

Irish Saint (micro going IF GOOD) 6/1 UP

4.10 –

Full Shift (all hncps + chase + micro age) 2/1 2nd

Lemons Gent (hncp chase) 12/1 UP

Ballycoe (hncp chase) 13/2 UP

Easy Street (micro distance) 12/UP

 

4.45 – Champ (NHF) 4/7 2nd 4/6

 

NEWCASTLE

I don’t believe there are any. None.

**

BONUS: Ireland

2.20 – Pahaska 12/1 UP

2.55 – Jeannot De Nonant 16/1 UP/ Carrig Cathal 6/1 3rd

 

3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

Not much to add today. Quite a few qualifiers, and a few in the 10/1+ range. With any luck this is one of those Saturday’s where there are a glut of nice winners- there has been the odd one of those this season and another would be welcome. Most 10/1+ shots are covered in the ratings pointers.

Of those that are not, i suppose Solstice Star looks up against it.  The trainers handicap hurdlers sent off 22/1+ are 2/83,12p as a guide. This one doesn’t look like he stays this trip to my eye, although only 2 goes, and he has yet to win from this kind of mark. He also looks out of form. He is a monster price though. I don’t think you could be too bullish as to his chance.

Ffeebee- trainer 0/15,0p with NHF runners 50/1+ SP. The horse does get the tongue tie and the trainer is in much better form than he was, probably when she last ran. (they did have a cough going around etc) Those two things may or may not be significant. On paper she has little chance but odd things can happen in bumpers.

Triolo D’Alene – Henderson is 1/135,15p with handicap chasers sent off 22/1+. This one is badly out of form but his  mark is dropping and a repeat of his best runs puts him right in the mix. Those types always dangerous to fully rule out but he does need to step up on recent efforts you would think. Maybe he will. All race conditions are fine.

In Ireland with the bonus stats… Pahaska is unexposed and makes handicap debut, so anything could happen on that front. The market may or may not guide but hard to judge him on recent form. Much more could be expected today. J D N is having his second start for the trainer and is lightly raced in the UK. Again, hard to judge at the moment really.

Good luck with whatever approach you take today.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

5. Big Race Trends Shortlist

(Big Race Trends post HERE>>> )

The Eider Chase…

Those stats that looked interesting to my, that all winners had hit…

11 or fewer handicap chase runs / 1-4 chase wins / 4 or fewer handicap wins / 3-7 places (inc wins) in chases

I think that leaves a shortlist of: Streets of Promise / Out Sam / Smooth Stepper / Berea Boru / Knockanrawley 2nd / Mysteree WON 10/1/ Alto De Mottes

Now, this is going to be a slog, apparently their going stick reading is the lowest it has been for many a year. Other points of interest.. positive stats include a run 6-20 days ago, 11-6+ on back (5/25 or so, in 10 years) (that includes a big weighted winner in heavy) OR 131-139 / Top 5 in weights..

Given the ground my own guns are pointing at Streets of Promise and Berea Boru- so, if you fancy those, apologies! Streets of Promise and BB like to race prominently and there is a chance the former can be up there all the way. The weight may tell come the end but is a price. Bowen is in form for the latter and puts the visor on, so a change there. He has Ffos Las and Chepstow heavy form,which can be as testing as it gets.  Sue Smith is 0/11,0p in this so I may dodge hers. Anyway, those are my thoughts- other stats etc may stand out to you.

Kempton…  shortlist…

The three stats that recent winners have all hit include: Won 2m5f+, 9 or fewer handicap chase runs, Top 3 one of last 3 starts.

That leaves: Aso / Three Musketeers / Double Shuffle / Irish Saint / Finger On The Switch / Pilgrims Bay WON 25/1

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

3 Comments

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  • Man I hate Saturdays. How much is that, 25 horses? Whenever I bet on so many it ends badly. And when I don’t bet you’ll probably have the best day of the month.

    John 24/02/17 10:06 PM Reply


    • Yep this is one of the busier Saturdays on all fronts! Depends how you approach them. If you back all quals in section 2 regardless then you have to back them. That approach is in profit and the number of quals is one of reasons to start small and build up. I can’t think they will all lose! Weekends have been good to us in general
      I know that is a lot,again one of reasons for introducing RPs (although theRe are a lot of those also) or the 10/1+ approach or the ratings pointers 10/1+ approach. Hopefully ignoring any shorter priced ones may reduce. One of those days. I hope there are a couple of decent winners in there. GL.
      The solution is to cut down the no. Stats for next year but plenty to ponder on that front. Josh

      Josh 24/02/17 10:17 PM Reply


  • just a quick explanation of my approach which seems to be working.
    i have 2 banks , my main bank is for backing all the rating pointers and some of the other qualifiers as long as dutching will leave that race in profit whatever wins anything left i back with my “fun” bank which i also use for my own rubbish selections and some gleamed from the free post, tips,nickmazurs and anything else i find interesting.
    to this point both banks are in profit and only rarely do i miss a winner , mainly because i missed it or forgot to mark take sp, as i said at the start this works for me as i’m only backing in small stakes and it protects my banks.

    martin whittle 25/02/17 8:57 AM Reply


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