TTP Jumps Notes: 24/02/17 (complete)

1.The Ratings Pointers

2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.The Ratings Pointers

HorseRaceBase

Top Rated

2.45 Exet- Shaama Grise 2nd 

3.50 Exet – Abracadabra Sivola UP

Top 3

5.25 Exet – Tobacco Road UP

 

Geegeez Speed

Top Rated

2.45 Exet- Shaama Grise 2nd

4.55 Exet – Albert D’Olivate UP

5.25 Exet – Tobacco Road UP

Top 3

none.

 

2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

EXETER

2.45 – Shaama Grise (hncp h) 9/4 2nd 11/4

3.50 – Abracadabra Sivola (micro age) 11/2 UP

4.55-

Albert D’Olivate (all hncps) 6/1 UP

Obistar (hncp h + micro age) 10/1 UP

5.25 – Tobacco Road (hncp h + micro age) 4/1 UP

WARWICK

4.45 – Kris Spin (hncp chase) 11/1 Fell

 

3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

TOP RATED.. As a quick aside I did just have a flick through the results, given a few top rated runners today…

So up to Tuesday.. HRB Top Rated… 11/33, +5.23 BFSP …. Geegeez Speed… 11/45, +25 BFSP..

Most winners are in shorter odds range and using a BOG bookie would outperform those I think- one example would be Catching On who was 16s, went off 8/1 BFSP, he was Geegeez Top Rated. Something to keep an eye on. You can see any of today’s going off at a monster price on the machine and if anything may shorten.

Anyway…

There are two 10/1+ shots today, and the only two not in the ratings pointers.

It is hard to say with any confidence that Obistar or Kris Spin can’t win, based on their profiles, or are awful bets at the prices. Obistar is find in conditions, is back down to his last winning mark, and has the ability to take a race like this- if putting it all together. He clouted one early the last day which didn’t help but he ran ok. He will just keep plodding on in this mud. Cheekpieces replace the blinkers, so a small change there at least. He looks a tricky customer. Market may guide and Scu isn’t on which I find puzzling, given he has won from this mark I wouldn’t have thought a necessity to claim 3lb. Pipe may be about to fire properly for the first time this season from memory, or he may not be. But he looks ok for any 10/1+ players.

Kris Spin has had some long breaks in his career to date. He has been racing in novice chases and in theory this should be easier/more suitable. He had some ability over hurdles and Moore is up. The market can guide with these, not too many of theirs going off over 12s run that well, but not impossible. He does face seven rivals in here who either won or came second LTO- it looks a competitive little race. This is only his 4th chase start though, and 3rd now after a long break.

So, I wouldn’t be bullish on either really but at the same time you can make a case.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

I will get some Saturday ‘big race’ trends/stats up by 1pm Friday. Two races jump out, the Betbright Chase and the Eider Chase. The last two Saturday’s of ‘winning profiles’ have found us two winners from the shortlists of 4 and 1, so with any luck we may do the same again.

Your/our Cheltenham stats pack is coming along. I am 7 handicaps down, 3 to go. And I will see what bonus races to throw in/what else may stand out. (the 4 miler and Albert Bartlett I suspect- 2/3 at the last three Festivals with 50/1 and 9/1 winners of the latter- maybe 3m+ novice hurdles are my thing after all!) I should do some work on jockeys at some point also. In any case I want to have everything in place come the end of next week.

As you may be aware there will be no free content during Cheltenham week. Non members will have to pay £7-£10 (i haven’t decided yet) for access. I doubt too many will join us but in any case it’s reward in itself for you good folk. Last year’s content/micro angles/big race shortlists found plenty of winners and fingers crossed we can do the same again. And no doubt the chat in the comments will highlight a few winners also.

If you haven’t checked out the free post/video looking at Venetia Williams/Alan King, you can do so HERE>>>  You even get to see/hear me in the bottom right hand corner, I’m not sure what else you could ask for!! 🙂 

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That will be all for this post. Good luck with any bets.

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