FREE DAILY POST: 24/02/17 (complete)

Nice to get that 25/1 winner of the 1.30, were you on?? – well, that’s what I like to think  would have happened had the meeting not been abandoned! A shame that, as a few of us had some interesting outsiders to look forward to. Old Doris has nearly blown Liverpool away I think. As yet I haven’t ventured outside for fear of being catapulted into the Mersey, but I’m going to have to brave the elements soon as I am heading over a friends shortly. If you never hear from me again, that will be why 🙂

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TIPS

3.50 Exeter

Barton Gift – 1 point win 14/1  (bet365/BV/Lad/Boyle) (12/1 general) PU

Theatrical Star – 1 point win – 12/1 (SkyB/BV)  11/1 | 10/1 (general) UP (4th)

*Hmm. Well, no excuse for Barton Gift, one of his lesser efforts having had an easy enough time on the front end. Maybe all those recent efforts told in the end. I was right to take on the top 3, sadly I couldn’t find the winner. Theatrical Star ran well enough. I am not sure how testing that ground really was,softer may have been more ideal, but he ran well enough. Younger, progressive legs winning the day.  A return to form for the winner- Could we have found him? Well, he was 2/9,3p over fences so lightly raced. He ran well on seasonal reappearance at Chepstow in a decent enough race. Lost a shoe at Cheltenham which may have been a valid excuse, and  was never sighted the last day, having been held up. Maybe this was a plan- well it looks that way. Back came the cheekpieces, back came the prominent tactics, always in the front two. Great ride by young Ben Poste. It is annoying when the top of the market bombs out, a biggie wins, and you were nowhere near it. A sense of failure on that one. Onwards. 

 

What’s that sound? Ah yes, me screwing the cap back onto my meds. We all know one of the three at the top of the market – those slightly younger legs,possibly more in hand, unexposed at the trip..may well take this. But I can’t have them at their prices, certainly not the top two. More on them in a moment.

These two look over priced to my eye.

Barton Gift- well clearly I can’t get this horse right to save my life and it would have been nice to have been on at least one of his recent victories. But he is the solid one in here who ‘should’, famous last words, give me a run for my money – at least until the final couple of fences where something with more in hand may grind their way past. There is a chance this horse is just getting better at age 10, that he is just in the form of his life, certainly over these marathon trips. He has course form, he is in form, he is 4/7,4p over 3m5f+, soft is as soft as he wants it- so the ground looks idea actually, there is a chance he can get an uncontested lead again, the jockey gets on well with him, he is a perfect 3/3 over fences when returning within 15 days of his last start, and importantly… he has won having worn the same headgear on recent previous runs. I had noticed they had kept switching headgear recently and he kept running well- I noticed that before his last win, but failed to act. Moron.  We know what we will get. He will try and put these under pressure from the front. And whether or not from flag fall, or after a few fences, should get the lead at some point with any luck.

So, the only question is his handicap mark for me. He needs another career best. I said that before his last win. He proved me wrong. All of us will think his mark is too high, surely something will nab him. But, he usually jumps soundly when able to lead and we know he stays and he gallops. He won’t be stopping, if on a going day. And the rest, including those near the front of the market,will be coming from further behind- they will have to make up ground. And, that can cause problems/poses questions. It is the only negative that I can see. And, given he is 14s, were he to win, it would ruin the weekend- that’s even before I tip a couple of donkeys at Kempton and Newcastle! He shouldn’t be 14s. On everything we know, he shouldn’t be. There is a class question I suppose, but, he hasn’t had that many goes over this trip, on ground no worse than soft, at this level. And, he is just in good form. He has won at C3. He is also the only horse who is top 3 on both HRB and Geegeez Speed, which is a positive I think. And given the questions a lot of these have, a simple repeat of his last run may well put him in the mix. He may not need to improve again. And in actual weight terms, he has less to lug around than the last day.

Anyway, I have probably missed the boat with him this season but hopefully he can get a lead early and it is clear he is travelling. He rarely runs a bad race over this distance, in this ground… (cue, a shocker..)

Theatrical Star…

Well. Where to start with him. I fancied him at Sandown where he ran well, admittedly in a race not working out great, but it was an ok Veteran’s Chase and it was run at a solid enough pace I think. I like the way he moved through that race,and maybe the last run here was a sighter, for the canny Tizzards. The class drop I find interesting, this does feel easier than many recent runs, and in general he has been in good form. That last Veteratn’s race here was decent enough. That hurdle run at Wincanton was decent enough in a C2 also, again maybe not the strongest but ok. But, it is the trip which took him from my maybe pile to a bet, at this price. Oh and he can carry weight, 2/2 with 11-12 on his back- that is tough over this distance, but again it is his price that draws me in.

He has only run beyond 26f once, and that was in the 2015 Classic Chase at Warwick, a G3, over 3m5f in very soft ground. He came a superb second, staying on all the way to the line. He wasn’t stopping at Sandown two runs ago either, he kept going. It could be that this kind of trip, in calmer waters, is exactly what he wants these days. At 12s, I want to pay to find out. It would open up some more doors for him at his age. He can race prominently and I hope Powell just sits him behind the pace and they assume he will relish every yard- which based on that Warwick run he will. It looked like he was out-paced the last day and that shouldn’t be an excuse here. My past tips can have a habit of winning once on their next three starts, usually when I am not on- hopefully this may be another.

I don’t think these should be double figure prices, but time will tell. I was happy to take a dart. They both look proven stayers to my eye. So, we have that onside. And they are running well enough.

Of the rest…

Well one of the top 3 may well win this. Abracadabra Sivola is probably ok at 13/2. He is a TTP horse and is Geegeez Speed Top Rated… such qualifiers for TTP members are now 11/45, +25 BFSP in 2017 to date, prob around +10 points on top of that if using BOG bookies/morning prices. Solid. He is unexposed at the distance, but does have it to prove, and he does need to improve for it. He can race up there but I can’t think they will try and make all with one whose stamina is unproven. His price may just about be ok, although I wasn’t leaping out of my chair.

West of The Edge – looks interesting enough. He will stay I think, although this trip is tougher around here than his win at Market Rasen. He does need to step up though on previous form- but is unexposed at these distances. We know the trainer can train them for stamina. He has been held up over fences, and that will pose questions- jumping under pressure, traffic issues, needing more luck in running etc. In that context 3/1 seems short. They may race him more prominently of course,esp as they will be confident he stays. He can beat me, and if my two are out with the washing Team RTP will cheer him on for Nick. (part owner)

SpookyDooky is a silly price now- if you got on at bigger prices last night than well done. I can see why. The money suggests I may have thrown 2 points away. He takes a drop in class here, but has looked out of form. Of course, with Jonjo’s yard, who knows. I can’t read them, too inconsistent. There may be valid illness excuses for recent runs. Who knows why some of his run so badly, it isn’t all just playing silly buggers with the handicapper. In any case this is easier than recent runs and that Midlands National run gave some hope this trip may be what he wants. A kind of plodding on effort over 4m, a chance this slight drop back in trip helps. Again though, he is a proper hold up horse- or has been. Maybe as the money is down they are going to race him more prominently- just the kind of change of tactics which could see him in a new light. There is a Right Handed question- 0/5,1p RH, all his best/winning form has been going LH. Now, that could be nothing- he has only had 1 chase run RH. But, again, at 7/2, in a race like this, you don’t really want any questions. You want one that looks to have a bombproof chance. He doesn’t to my eye. But, his mark is plummeting. I won’t be shocked if/when he dots up. But I can’t touch 7/2.

There is nothing at bigger prices I want to be on. I will touch on Woodford County – a course winner, who stays. He will stay. He just looks woefully out of form and isn’t doing much different (headgear change say) to make me question why he would suddenly bounce back into form. Hobbs is back in great nick again, but he has never exactly had a really cold spell- since, when, the turn of the century! – that would excuse those runs. 12s seems short enough in the context of his recent form, were he 20s+ maybe a dabble. But even his best form may not be up to matching some of these.

Happy to leave the rest. They can beat me and I will then stare at their profiles in HRB and wonder why I wasn’t on.

PACE.. Well Barton Gift will be up there, Theatrical Star not far behind with any luck. There shouldn’t be any excuse on that front. Nothing else has habitually front run in here- and the odd one that has, isn’t in great form. Woodford County may be up there for  a time, Say My name- but not sure he is good enough to hold a position, the Pipe horse might- but I am hoping that would be reckless given they will want to ensure he gets the trip. Anything else that tries to make all will be doing something different than on their recent runs.

So, those two will do. Fingers crossed I have something to cheer up the home straight.

That will be all for tips.

I have run out of time for the Warwick race. The Kerry Lee angle below will have to do! (also a TTP pick,so we shall see, market support would be welcome, and it looks a very competitive race, lots of 1s + 2s on last starts and probably the kind of race a disciplined backer would leave!- but, where is the fun in that 🙂 )  

 

 

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MICRO ANGLES/SYSTEMS

Jumps Angles

K Lee Chasers (12/1<)

3.50 Exet- Mountainous (x 2 angles)

4.45 War – Kris Spin

 

Trainer /Jockey Combos– Live Test

4.45 War – Kris Spin (#9) (12/1<)

Handicap Hurdle/Chase Portfolio– Live Test

4.10 War – Act Now

4.45 War – Definite Memories

 

Other

I can’t remember if I was following this angle or not- the Amanda Perret AW angle. I think I stopped after a poor run, and then she banged in a load of winners- yep this angle was 5/16,11p, +32 SP last year, 26/90,43 places since 2010, +107 BFSP.

It looks at her AW runners that ran on Turf/NH LTO, running at the same class or Up 1 from LTO.  Similar to the James Fanshawe one which has served us so well in the past. First qual of 2017…

4.00 Ling – The Warrior (12/1< SP) 3rd 12/1>8/1

 

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VIDEO… If you missed my video (I’m no George Clooney, but it’s ok!) or indeed the actual micro angles for VW and Alan King, you can find those HERE>>> They will find winners and it is useful info to have onside.

There is also the Cheltenham Ante-Post, Post, which I re-posted, and you can flick through that HERE>>>

 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

27 Comments

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  • My heart says Barton Gift again tomorrow – did so well for me 2 weeks ago, Course record is outstanding and Nico Be B rides him well, but my head says he can’t boss this field as he needs too off another extra 7lbs on his handicap mark.

    ian 23/02/17 7:03 PM Reply


  • 350E I’m surprised this one was not pulled up lto 😉 and wasn’t in a rush to back it this evening 🙁 but the money arrived early for Spookydooky.
    Had seven runs in higher class since last win and showed lots of stamina in the Midlands GN but ran as though this shorter trip would accommodate him better. Likes soft ground and showed he operates RH with Ascot form. Early 14/1 with B365 has been slashed to 15/2; 9/1 available though.

    chrisrees 23/02/17 7:04 PM Reply


  • Two for me tomorrow. Future Gilded looks like a really good bet in the 16:45 at Warwick. He ran well but was outpaced LTO. The winner has franked that form by following up in a better race of 7lbs higher, beating in the Aqua Dude in the process (who many shrewdies thought was one of the better handicapped horses around giving his proximity to Forest Bihan and Waiting Patiently earlier in the season) with the 3rd a further 20 lengths back and is now rated 140. The step up in trip should suit. He is running off the same mark but the inform Paige Fuller takes off 7lbs. As previously mentioned she is incredible value for her claim and is still in hot form. (1124120 in February). Jamie Snowden is likewise in solid form (113244P215 with his last 10 runners only 3 of those with Paige on board). They have combined to go 3/8 in handicap chases. I am expecting a big run.

    I also like the look of the Warrior in the 16:00 at Lingfield who I think is extremely well handicapped. Last seen at Glorious Goodwood running a very good race from the Parking Lot (there aren’t many harder places to win at than from an outside draw in a big field over 7f at Goodwood). That race has worked out extremely well with some very good horses in that race. He has been dropped 1lb for that run and the jockey takes a further 3lbs off. His last time at the track (albeit on the turf) he ran a very solid race when giving weight to half the field off similarly rated horses. Trainer and jockey are 3/11, 6p +7 in handicaps at the track since the start of 2016. The only issue here is whether the trainer can get him fit off a long lay-off. He has ran well off long lay-offs when trained by Aidan O’Brien (1st and 3rd in 2 big field maidens on seasonal re-appearances as a 2 and 3 yr old) so we know he is capable just a case of Perrett being able to duplicate this. Looking at the past few years I think she is but even if he doesn’t win tomorrow I would keep a track on him.

    I am not going to tip in the Devon National. I think Westy has a favourites chance and is the likeliest winner but couldn’t tip him at the price. This has been the plan since Carlisle and the ground is exactly what we were hoping for. The extra 4f should be exactly what he needs. There is also the small chance that he gets into the Eidar and if he does he will be re-routed there and wont run. Fingers crossed he wins tomorrow.
    If I was to have a saver it would be with Mountainous although I have a feeling that one will also be trying to run in the Eidar (I certainly would given the heavy ground at Newcastle would be ideal).

    Nick Mazur 23/02/17 9:51 PM Reply


    • Lol only just noticed the Perrett angle you put up Josh

      Nick Mazur 23/02/17 9:54 PM Reply


    • Looks like Newcastle – Mountainous now Non Runner today

      finalflight 24/02/17 8:32 AM Reply


      • The defection of Mountainous and Dawson City has persuaded me to have a small each way bet on Barton Gift and Woodford County in the 3.50 at Exeter – the angle being the former is in the form of its life and proven over CD and the latter is on a cracking handicap mark if it can find some form and also CD winner – both around 12/1 even after 2 non runners.

        Good Luck all and hope they all come home sound.

        Ian 24/02/17 8:55 AM Reply


        • Am with you on Barton Gift Ian- he just looks solid and his price is too big on everything we know. Yep I don;t think he has ever been in better form, and in those scenarios, over these distances, handicap marks can mean very little. On paper at least it looks like he could get an easy enough time on the front- fingers crossed.
          Can see why you would go with woodford- were he double the price I may have joined you with an EW bet. Maybe the trainer’s form will now rub off on him- a proven stayer who if returns to any form will give you a run for money for sure.

          Josh 24/02/17 9:49 AM Reply


  • From a breeding perspective US Navy Seal fits the bill for the 9.00 at Dundalk, 11/1 late Thursday evening.

    martin colwell 23/02/17 10:47 PM Reply


    • U.S Navy Seal in dreadful form and 2nd top weight, last 2 starts at Dundalk not been too promising either

      James R Pilbeam 24/02/17 11:12 AM Reply


      • Thanks for the challenge on US Navy Seal. My thought was that based upon breeding and surface etc 11/1 was not bad value. We shall see this evening and fully accept current form is not looking good. I am hoping that it will drift in price.

        martin colwell 24/02/17 12:03 PM Reply


        • Made a nice move in the straight lto and probably did not get the 12 furlongs. Tonight’s trip looks as though it could be ideal.

          Richard Sutton 24/02/17 7:28 PM Reply


          • Price shortening now. Haven’t seen his last runs at Dundalk just the result. Trip and surface ideal for a warfront prodg. GL

            James R Pilbeam 24/02/17 8:53 PM Reply


  • 4.10 War – Act Now maybe easiest bet ,
    Ex 3:50 Theatrical Star ew and Mountainous ew

    3:35 W i think Dresden Pressurize is superb horse but not that race

    Pab 24/02/17 1:14 AM Reply


    • Hope you are right about Theartical Pab! Good luck. Does look a solid EW bet but have stuck with on the nose today! GL

      Josh 24/02/17 9:47 AM Reply


  • Fancy Theatrical Star with Mr Powell on board, he is quirky and does have to be on a going day, but, he does have a knack in these staying chases to get the best out of a horse.
    At Lingfield the 3.25 with Audacious Plan in a hcp for new trainer is interesting and the money is speaking at the moment for it..

    maccas71 24/02/17 8:15 AM Reply


    • Tend to agree with you Maccas, he wasn’t near the top of my list on first run through but then I realised that he had only raced over an extreme trip once, and that was arguably a career best given in a G3, and he has looked to be getting out-paced at times. He should just keep going, and that may be enough. Worth a go at his price anyway.

      Josh 24/02/17 9:44 AM Reply


  • With The Warrior’s penchant for heavy going, I’d have thought he was being prepared for an early turf h’cap today.

    chrisrees 24/02/17 9:23 AM Reply


    • You might be right Chris (although he seems as adept over fast as he does over heavy) but why have a prep race for a horse that doesn’t appear to need a prep race. Also if they were preping surely they would have been doing it more like early to mid march.

      Nick Mazur 24/02/17 9:37 AM Reply


  • Phangio 3.05 Warwick. Old system only 10% wins but well clear on stakes.

    Tony Mc. 24/02/17 10:21 AM Reply


  • Another positive for The Warrior – this is his first run as a gelding.

    Simon Van Zyl 24/02/17 10:39 AM Reply


  • First – time geldings is an angle I follow. Maori Boy won on Wednesday. 5 run today and besides The Warrior I think 3 others have good chances – Who told Jo Jo 5.05 L. Gilgamesh 7.15W. Bourbonisto 7.45W. All have reasonable form chances which might well be enhanced by the loss of their tackle.

    Simon Van Zyl 24/02/17 11:04 AM Reply


  • after being robbed of my 210-1 winner yesterday 🙂 with meeting being abandoned i’m going to have another go at a biggy today.
    2-30 Warwick Maroc 55’s + ew, well beaten on his debut over hurdles LTO but ran very keenly and if he can be settled early on might have a chance (the words clutching at straws springs to mind)

    martin whittle 24/02/17 11:49 AM Reply


    • Like the chance of Maroc today Martin
      Your so right if he settles better today must have a big e.w. shout
      Have had a 20/80 bet the place part to 4 places

      Graham Ashford 24/02/17 2:23 PM Reply


  • There’s a Bushranger running in Ireland tonight – 8.30 Queluz. Was on it last time over 2f further, watched the race…and it’s not really reflected in any post race reports..but it made a promising move on the inside after the bend and didn’t seem able to maintain it.

    That was after a 4 month break, so actually may have needed it, or it could have just been too far. Back down to 1m2 tonight, the distance it ran 2nd at in a turf race previously. Same jockey on as the last race.

    And after taking around 85 in the evening it contracted, which suggests someone at least thought there was something in it.

    50-1 in places, bits of 60 on BF currently and expect could easily go out 80+ or equally contract to 30s.

    If anyone watches cheer it on for me…I’m on a 2.50 EW double with Kingswell Th (at 33s) and a couple of ew trebles with Kingswell, Romeo A (at 40 with a R4, who I thought had it for a few strides!) Would have made a very interesting (and adrenalin filled, watch through the fingers) evening. But even the place will do me now for some extra Cheltenham funds!

    Steve Cross 24/02/17 6:12 PM Reply


    • Betfair at around 150 just before the race suggested this was not off today though think it finished top half of the field. May go in at a price one day when not expected.

      Steve Cross 24/02/17 8:39 PM Reply


      • It was unlucky not to be placed in my view. Was impeded enough in the straight to stop momentum but see how it ran on after the line. Very well done with your selections though today.

        Richard Sutton 24/02/17 8:43 PM Reply


        • Just watched it. OMG that is one that got away. Finished full and jockey couldn’t pull the horse up for over 100 yards after the line, though clearly the others were slowing up. Looks like if it had been a mile and a half or maybe slightly cleaner/earlier run this could have been the first 150-1 plus Bushranger party.

          Hopefully not too many will have taken note. Will find out next time.

          Steve Cross 25/02/17 7:46 AM Reply


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