TTP Jumps Notes: 23/02/17 (complete)

1.The Ratings Pointers

2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.The Ratings Pointers

HorseRaceBase

Top Rated

none.

Top 3

none.

Geegeez Speed 

Top Rated

none.

Top 3

4.30 Sedge – Bell Weir- UP

 

2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

HUNTINGDON ABANDONED

1.30 –

Good Man Hughie (all hncps) 13/2

Braw Angus (hncp hurdle) 14,30 25/1

 

3.45-

Morning Reggie (hncp c) 30 9/2

King of Glory (hncp c) 14,30 6/4

Eaton Rock (micro class) 14 12/1

 

SEDGEFIELD

2.10 – Straight Run (micro age) 9/2 UP

3.55 – Roxyfet (hncp c + micro class) 13/2 UP

4.30 – Bell Weir (all hncps) 11/8 UP

5.05 – Alchemix (hncp c + micro class) 8/1 UP

 

3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

One potential monster in Braw Angus and there is some hope there… he is lightly raced, unexposed and makes handicap hurdle debut- Bailey a solid 8/40,13p, +27 points with such types in the last 2 years. He couldn’t be in better form either. The horse also moved up in trip which is what I like to see on handicap debut as it is a possible reason for improvement, as is the fact they may have been worked harder at home. Trainer/jockey have a solid enough record in handicaps, certainly not a reason to be put off. The market can guide, he is 1/122,13p with handicap hurdlers 22/1+.. with this type I expect one of two things really… his price may well crash, into 10s/8s, at which point I suspect he may go very close to winning, or it doesn’t move/drifts, and he tails in well beat. I have taken a price on BF with the thinking that he may do the former. If he drifts out he probably wont be winning anyway. We shall see!

Eaton Rock- well money seems to be coming for him and may be one again to take a price, or that is an early morning red herring. But, he is top rated on geegeez speed so he doesn’t need much overthinking for me. He has some questions now but it lightly raced over fences and his run two starts ago here was ok, after a break. King of Glory is interesting but I won’t touch him at that price personally – he won’t be coming on for the run, he would have been very fit for that last run I think and it was a tough race,only 6 days ago. There is that dreaded bounce factor having made his return after a very lengthy break. He may bolt up but is worth taking on I think.

That looks likely to be it for the 10/1+ appraoch, unless the odd shorter priced one drifts into 11.00+. I have backed Alchemix at 8s- I was on him the last day here when he qualified and although early in the race he was travelling in a way that suggested to me he could run a big race- he dived at a fence when Brooke was dictating his pace. Cheekpieces come on here to maybe help with that and I thought he was worth one more go. He isn’t a ratings pointer , and any drift wouldn’t be a great sign, so we shall see.

As always, good luck with any bets. Hopefully Bailey’s can claw back some of Febs 10/1+ losses.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

ALL Qualifiers: CLICK HERE>>>

Ratings Pointers: CLICK HERE>>>

 

Note: I appear to have made up some profit, or added a stray 10 points onto Ratings Pointers updates yesterday. I think these are both correct now and the winners/winners that were ratings pointers match up.

So, Ratings Pointers +39.72 points BFSP  for 2017 to date. (before Tuesday this week)  (backing all, qual just once) 

Ratings Pointers, 10/1+ … 7/46, +61 BFSP (inc 32 points or so one winner,they look healthy enough if you removed that one)

Backing all qualifiers, section 2, +87 points or so BFSP before Tuesday.

And likewise, all 10/1+ shots, from section 2, +119 points before Tuesday. Feb been a toughie so far for those, but having pulled in 158 points in Jan maybe a reminder we hadn’t quite found the magic money tree. But, another 158 point month would be welcome!

If you spot an errors etc do say, they will be unintentional, either post a comment and as always you can email me… info@racingtoprofit.co.uk

You can of course email me anytime about anything really, within reason 🙂

 

As an aside…

TWITTER TROLL…/YOUR HELP/Selling Info…

As an aside, our Hunter Chase friend, Darran Pearce, had noticed that one of his ‘members’ had been taking his Hunter Chase advice and selling it on. We love people like that in our business! They had since trolled him on twitter,(as he’d tipped the odd loser) which was idiotic really as it helped provide some clues. He emailed me asking for any views and with a shortlist of culprits based on a few pointers, and with a bit of googling, it appears we may have identified who it is.

Possibly, a Mr Paul Jeffrey. Who, having googled, by all accounts may be a conman/’shark’ (as described on one particular thread I read. His card is marked it would seem) He may not be of course, may be the wrong person completely. But it all stacks up it would appear. Mr P Jeffrey isn’t a member on these pages thankfully, from what I can see.

Anyway, eyes peeled. These types usually get found out soon enough.  Despicable behaviour really.

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

3 Comments

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  • Hi Josh….Yes despicable is the right word. I actually received a similar mail from a similar site as your own. I don’t use him, because he’s very technical…far to technical for me anyway…but he’s been having similar problems with two people..he blogs under Malcolm and say how blatant these people are. They just don’t care. So yes ‘Be on your guard’ my friends.
    Reading Darran. he’s level like you are Josh and it must be infuriating.

    Best of luck in rooting them out.

    Tony Mc.

    tonymc 23/02/17 11:52 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh
    Just watched your video on Venita Williams and found it fantastic what Horse Data Base can do is amazing.
    Noticed that Venita has had winners towards the top of the handicap,could this be a way in for we all know the top weight is the class horse in the race,poss down to three or four in the handicap.
    Once again Thank You for your hard work a wonderful incite into your work.
    Cheers
    Colin

    colin leafe 23/02/17 1:38 PM Reply


    • Hi Colin,Thanks, glad you enjoyed it/found it of some interest. I can drone on, but that’s the way it is!!

      There are more such videos from the archive HERE… http://racingtoprofit.co.uk/2016/08/23/horse-race-base-some-over-the-shoulder-videos/

      (some look at profiling, big race trends, some more trainer profiles etc)

      I did have a look at weight after I posted the video and as I was thinking through what I had missed…a very good point… there may well be a general way in with her top weights/bottom weights but if we just focus on Treadwell…

      And look at handicap chasers that were clear top weights, OR bottom weights (inc joints) (and plenty of logic for those two… classier horses near the top, and at the bottom, either a horse possibly making way up handicap and may have a bit in hand, or she targets some muddy slog where having a featherweight is a bonus, as an example)

      Anyway, Treadwell, those weights, 14/1<, handicap chase... OH and 0-2 runs in the previous 90 days (her 'over raced' chasers really don't do well) are 11/25,14p... + 38 SP. Now, all the profit/winners, bar two of those winners, are covered in angles #1 + #2 on the other post. But it is of some interest, and that is a rather healthy SR and may lead you to be more confident. Certainly a mixture of those 4 angles in total are the only times I would consider backing VW/LT 'systematically' , of course you can go on a horse by horse basis and they will have winners outside of those, but backing all their handicap chasers isn't advised. Josh

      Josh 23/02/17 2:28 PM Reply


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