FREE DAILY POST: 22/02/17 (complete)

FREE REPORT!! 

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This is the trainer/jockey combo report that a few of you geegeez list subscribers were raving about a few weeks back, and that by all accounts has been rather profitable to follow. (your words, not mine) So, do make sure you grab your copy HERE>>>

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TIPS

3.45 Donc –

Samingarry – 1 point win – 14/1, 12/1 (general) 16/1 (Lad)* UP 8/1

*hmmm. well a slight feeling of disappointment that he was slow away when it was clear the jockey wanted to make all- he spent a few fences getting him up with the pace and that will have taken something out of him. Only in the sense that I would have liked to have seen him travel on the front with no horses surrounding him. It may well be that he would have been on and off the bridle in any case. 

I can’t say I would have ever backed the winner at a single figure price because of the stamina niggle- 0/10,0p beyond 2m4f previous to this- having said that, he was yet to win a handicap and a line can clearly be put through his last 3 runs. Something must have been up. He hadn’t had many goes at this trip over fences, it was possibly the easiest race he had lined up in and many others in here had questions to answer also. There seemed to be a bit of money for him but I was mildly surprised how he stayed on through the line. One of those. Hopefully Samingarry may pop up on his next couple of starts, making all. Clearly a bit of a bugger. 

This one looks worth chancing to my eye at this price. He may well be tailed off, he may have issues, but there is something there. The first positive is the form of the yard. They have been in the doldrums for an age – I suspect a virus or something- certainly they had a poor 2016 from memory, but whatever it was, they are flying now… 3/13,7p in the last 14 days. Hopefully that rubs of on this one. Poor yard form/issues could have been a reason for his no show LTO, or he may have ‘bounced’ to an extent.

The first time blinkers also caught my eye, for one who does like to race prominently usually. It is my hope that they rev him up in a controlled way and that he may try and make all here, or certainly be up there. That is what they should do anyway! I would like to see some money for him, not many of the yards chasers over 12/1 run that well so fingers crossed he is backed as if better is expected.

All conditions look fine and before his enforced absence of over 500+ days, he had some decent enough form in the book, certainly good enough to mix it with these. He handicap mark is fine, he likes decent ground, he stays well enough, and has a good record under this jockey (2/5 in handicap chases)- of interest also that he is back on for the first time this season.

There was just enough there to take a stab at this price for me. Given his break he is arguably relatively young/lightly raced over fences compared to some of these, and that can count for plenty  in these veteran’s chases.

I wasn’t keen to back anything else at the prices really. Saint Are is a worthy fav but they will have left something to work on for the National, and he is another year older than when winning this last year- and that race hasn’t worked out well, 1/42 from those to have run since.

Seventh Sky would have a chance at his best/repeat of that Bangor run, but he has some questions to answer now/well being etc, and is 6/1, not 14s. He may go close but 6s didn’t feel overly generous to me. The yard are going well again and he will give it a good go. Ericht and Killala Quay have stamina to prove and until they do that, I won’t touch them. This race wont be run at a slow pace I don’t think, and they will need to stay. Again in that context I don’t like their price. Likewise Astracad has a stamina question. I am not jumping up and down to back Court By Surprise at single figure odds either really, he hasn’t won a handicap chase since he was 9, 0/10,2p since then. Blue Cascade has some questions now after that last run also, and there is a class niggle and whether he would be up to beating some of these.

So, it feels an open race and one where I wanted a price. I can see Hawke’s charge out-running these odds if the headgear works. He was worth a punt at a double figure price for sure.

He is one for the ‘tracker’… in C3 handicap chases, worth <10k to winner, he is 5/6,5p… so if he they ever drop him in class take note also. Provided the horse hasn’t gone at the game, and the fact they’ve persevered suggests not, then I would be confident they will get another win or two from him, given his profile.

That will be all for tipping.

 

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Nothing from the usual rosta that I can see, those days are rare…

Bonus.. a few days back I looked at NHF trainers who do well on Heavy. Mr Meade has one on Wed to keep an eye on..

5.10 Punch – Cask Mate

 

Colin’s Venetia/Treadwell angle is ticking along with another winner today… yes Coleman rode it, 8/1, but only because Treadwell was injured before, when his mount may well have gone on to make it 2/2. Such angles are about who is ‘booked’ rather than who is riding, if that makes sense! Well, imo anyway.

I have looked at that angle before and as I think about it I am not sure why it didn’t come up when I looked at my TJC test portfolio. I will add that to the list to look at, as I will Alan King and first time headgear, esp chasers. Keep reminding me until you see such notes!

 

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That will be all for today.

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

18 Comments

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  • its whos booked not whose riding?Tenuous at best.

    So did that apply when jim best replaced mattie bachelor with tony mccoy?

    chris graham 21/02/17 7:34 PM Reply


    • It’s sort of a reverse Best / McCoy situation isn’t it? We had advance warning that it could have been one she fancied to run well which is why Treadwell had the ride. A last minute jockey change because of injury (I think) and not a dodgy car doesn’t change the fact that she still fancied the horse to go well.

      Neil 21/02/17 9:57 PM Reply


    • Hi Chris, that comment was in relation to that particular angle – those typed of TJC are a trainer ‘behaviour’ approach- there is a reason Treadwell is booked on certain chasers, and all the stats suggest that he is much the best jockey to follow on hers. Now, Coleman used to be stable jockey and was free to ride their Wetherby winner, before Treadwell got injured/signed off, in an earlier race. Likewise young Charlie D is attached to the yard and has ridden plenty of winners/ridden in top races for the stable.
      So, there is method to their madness- it may be that she is great at working out which horses respond best/best suited, to which jockey- both CD and LT will do most of the main work/riding out at home I suspect, and maybe they just stick with the horses that they ride out most etc. It may be owner preference.
      But it is significant, profit wise at least, when Treadwell is on. It would appear.
      That is what I meant by it’s who is booked- Treadwell was booked to ride that Wetherby winner- that was the indication, for that system at least, that the horse could add to those profits,and there was a reason he was on that one. The fact he got injured/signed off and that Coleman took the ride is irrelevant to that particular system. The trainer ‘behaviour’ was clear. Indeed Coleman was clearly able to ride and some would say is a better jockey, but he wasn’t booked originally.
      Hope that makes some sense.

      Your analogy is different, although still, who was actually booked was irrelevant. McCoy was an indication and he was very much a job jockey for Best. Him riding, and replacing a jock who was removed, was a clear sign of intent. But it didn’t have to be McCoy, if that makes sense. Best’s ‘job jockey’ could have been Dickie, or a Jamie Moore, or anyone for that matter- if history suggested they were the job jockey, any of those replacing X on either the day, or from last ride, would have been the sign. As it happens, Best insured he had the very best around when the money was down.

      Josh 22/02/17 9:17 AM Reply


  • sorry to bother you all but just wondered if anyone knows how i can print off my bets on Skybet, easily done on Betfair but there does not seem to be anyway to do it on Skybet, any help greatly appreciated as i like to keep a hard copy of all bets placed.

    martin whittle 22/02/17 5:37 AM Reply


    • If all else fails, you can screen shot the bets and then print it from paint

      TuckersLuck 22/02/17 9:24 AM Reply


    • Hi Martin

      there’s a gadget called “Snagit”….. just Google the word “Snagit” and although their is a free trial version, a payment will be required but a 30 day, I think, free trial is available. It can capture any screen size or capture smaller items of the screen, or part of the screen

      very handy gadget is a “Snagit”

      Norman 22/02/17 9:25 AM Reply


  • Venita Williams and Liam Tredwell
    36 bets 7 winners £10 win bet + £280 at Bookmakers SP NOT Exchanges
    Aden Coleman has a profitable record on Venitas HC Chasers,however he appears to be riding for Jonjo more this season and since November he has had 3 losers for Venita,not counting his late switch and a winner which for the records will go down has a Tredwell winner.
    I will still back Coleman and Williams combo but will watch if there partnership starts to crack in time.
    I place my bets on Betfair Exchange SP for the Bookmakers have closed me down or restricted me,also place my bets early so for records it has to be the jockey named in the morning paper.

    colin leafe 22/02/17 8:43 AM Reply


  • Samingarry is only one of two who has won at the distance and is now 17/2..1ST predicted show was 13/1….
    The ratings for this race are quite squeezed, so even though it’s in 5th place. It’s only 10 points behind 1st place which for a handicap is nothing really.
    Surprisingly though it’s only NTD that has a low win strike rate at the moment. So it is a very tight race to predict…
    But a reduced wager seems the way to go after main choice Saint Are.

    BOL Josh.

    ony Mc.

    tonymc 22/02/17 11:58 AM Reply


  • another ggreat write up cheers

    graham 22/02/17 12:07 PM Reply


    • Cheers Graham, I like to try with the write ups, glad you enjoy them… sadly I have less control over the horse that precedes them! Not quite picking enough yet but we will get there. It will be all smiles when this one makes all.

      Josh 22/02/17 12:43 PM Reply


  • When I looked at the 15:45 at Donny last night I was struggling to make a case for anything at the prices however I think Seventh Sky has drifted out to a very silly price. Obviously the last 2 runs were poor but considering he has never been a class 1 horse that’s hardly a surprise (0/13 in class 1s or class 2s worth over £20k over fences, 0/14 when 14/1+ over fences). This is much more his level. The other interesting point is Sheehan is back for the first time since that Bangor run. He is back down to his last winning mark. Trainer is in solid form with 3 2nds from his last runners. You have a lot here who are either doubtful stayers or not up to this sort of level so I would expect him to be there or thereabouts. he is also top rated on HRB. I think the favourite does look solid but is a year older. The interesting one which I may kick myself about is Astracad who hasn’t really had his ideal conditions when trying this sort of trip and considering he was running 2m4f as a 4 year old and his sire’s offspring have done well over this sort of trip may have the best chance of the “doubtful stayers” but he was too much of a ‘dart’ to warrant a bet unless I could get 16/1+.

    Nick Mazur 22/02/17 2:01 PM Reply


    • Yep tend to agree about Seventh Sky now at 9s, that does feel too big when you look at the market now. A repeat of that Bangor run probably puts him thereabouts. I wanted a price on those you had to make excuses for, and 6s this morning was short enough for me but that is getting more like it. Cant understand Killala Qual money given he is 0/10,0p beyond 2m4.5f but what do I know! Thought 14s worth a dart on the Hawke runner but he is rock bottom of HRB which never fills me with much confidence, top 3 geegeez though. All about the headgear and whether they have him back to his best after whatever the excuse was the last day. Open race, should be fun to watch. GL.

      Josh 22/02/17 2:41 PM Reply


      • No it makes no sense whatsoever why the money is coming on for KQ. If I was a laying man would certainly consider laying that one for a place.

        Nick Mazur 22/02/17 2:50 PM Reply


        • Ok pass me the pie!

          Nick Mazur 22/02/17 3:55 PM Reply


          • Good job we are not laying men haha! I was never in a million years backing him around that price, and I am not sure if I would even if bigger! Not much evidence to date suggested he wanted a trip- amazingly, he has out-stayed them there I think- odd race mind. Don’t think we will take that form too seriously. 2 front 3 I thought very doubtful stayers, Ericht has just given way at least!

            Dont know what to make of Samingarry – such a shame he messed up the start, clearly wanted to make all and when he was up there he did travel ok, but on and off bridle. One of those where we will never know- had he got an easy lead it may have been different. But he didn’t. so end of that. Had to use a lot of energy to get up there. Will watch his next few runs, hopefully get my money back.

            Josh 22/02/17 3:58 PM Reply


          • I think very low weight in the last 25 yards won it.
            Proverbial 2nd again.

            tonymc 22/02/17 8:43 PM Reply


  • Onward and upward again Josh

    Keep the faith

    Joe 22/02/17 3:58 PM Reply


    • I never lose faith, well, not yet anyway! I wouldn’t have found that winner so i can live with that, one of those- certainly not at that price, taking 6s on horses you think are doubtful stayers isn’t a great strat long term I don’t think. Shame selection stalled at the start as jock clearly wanted to try and make all- back foot from there- suspect with blinkers he may have hated being surrounded even more. Never mind. Maybe next time.

      Josh 22/02/17 4:00 PM Reply


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