Finish The Story- 1 point win 8/1 UP*
Always around 4th and never nearer, just couldn’t go with them it seemed, and the front three just kept going. Powell wanted to be closer I think but just not sure he could ever get there. Damn. Winner won for TTP in the 10/1+ range, 11.9 BFSP, at least.
I think I have said once before that ‘this is the last time I am ever backing this horse’ having been convinced numerous times that he had a moderate staying chase in him somewhere. Well, this should definitely be the last time today. I can’t quite believe he is 8/1, that just seems a few points too big to my eyes. Probably unlike the few times I have backed him previously, he does arrive here in form, and so does the yard. Yes I know it was only a C5 handicap hurdle the last day but he did somewhat bolt up. It showed he was in some form again, having seemingly been out of it. He was well backed that day suggesting the yard knew they had got him back and was showing them enough at home. So, we have an in form horse whose recent well-being doesn’t look in question – a few in here have that question to answer. This could be a real test in heavy so his light weight is a bonus also.
And, as you flick through his chase form, he has some solid enough runs in C3s around this distance. That Plumpton run last March was ok where both him and Krackatoa King were chasing in vein behind Tour Des Champs on one his his decent days. He kept on well enough, finishing 0.75l behind KK, who lines up here for Lee. He was receiving 8lb that day,today he receives 18lb I think. The run at Cheltenham in April 16 was decent enough also and that may arguably be the best piece of chase form on offer here in the last 12 months or so. That was off 112, racing off 104 today. So, his mark has been coming down and this does look like one of the easier slogs over fences he has lined up in. young Brendan Powell clearly gets on well with him also. And he is top rated on geegeez speed, which is never a bad thing.
I just thought 8s stood out and I was happy enough to have one last dart. He does usually race prominently enough although there are a few front runners in this. But, given conditions, they may all go steady anyway. I can’t see an excuse here today. He has handled heavy fine in the past – a run at Exeter in heavy was decent, the trip of 3m6f at that track finding him out more than the ground that day- but he still ran well. And he has plenty of winning form in soft.
I didn’t really want to be on anything else at the prices. The fav has stamina to prove and while unexposed they have been weak enough races. KK is getting a bit frustrating to my eye and 11/2 is only fair, without being overly generous I thought. He needs more than on recent runs and I wasn’t sure why he would suddenly show it.He has been running ok, and I always thought looked like stayer,but you have to start questioning that now. Onderun looked like he was out-stayed at Plumpton I thought and was PU LTO. Both of those factors don’t make me want to dive in at 6s personally. Battle Dust is unexposed but clearly tricky and get the visor replacing the cheekpieces. He has had a few breaks but did show something at Bangor. I suppose a big run wouldn’t be a shock but I want to see a tad more. This class an unknown also and he needs to improve on recent runs. Coolking is lazy but may just keep plodding on, but C3 has always been a question/struggle for him. Summary Justice isn’t getting any younger and just looks badly out of form at the moment. He has a big weight here to lug around also. I can’t really have the rest.
It does feel a moderate race and from my memory, having looked at the selection many times in many a race, certainly feels like one of the weaker ones he has lined up in. He ticks enough boxes for me and at 8s I will have a dart. I was surprised he wasn’t around the 5s mark really. I do think this is as far as he wants to go but with any luck he can see this lot off. Most of these, based on recent runs anyway, now have more questions than him to answer.
Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live Test
2.20 Ling – Allez Vic (#4) (12/1< guide)
4.10 Carl – Blakemount (#2) (12/1,)
Handicap hurdle/chase Portfolio – Live Test
3.00 Carl- Kap Jazz
4.00 Ling – Summery Justice
That will be all for today.