FREE DAILY POST: 20/02/17 (complete)

 

TIPS

4.00 Lingfield

Finish The Story- 1 point win 8/1 UP*

Always around 4th and never nearer, just couldn’t go with them it seemed, and the front three just kept going. Powell wanted to be closer I think but just not sure he could ever get there. Damn. Winner won for TTP in the 10/1+ range, 11.9 BFSP, at least. 

I think I have said once before that ‘this is the last time I am ever backing this horse’ having been convinced numerous times that he had a moderate staying chase in him somewhere. Well, this should definitely be the last time today. I can’t quite believe he is 8/1, that just seems a few points too big to my eyes. Probably unlike the few times I have backed him previously, he does arrive here in form, and so does the yard. Yes I know it was only a C5 handicap hurdle the last day but he did somewhat bolt up. It showed he was in some form again, having seemingly been out of it. He was well backed that day suggesting the yard knew they had got him back and was showing them enough at home. So, we have an in form horse whose recent well-being doesn’t look in question – a few in here have that question to answer. This could be a real test in heavy so his light weight is a bonus also.

And, as you flick through his chase form, he has some solid enough runs in C3s around this distance. That Plumpton run last March was ok where both him and Krackatoa King were chasing in vein behind Tour Des Champs on one his his decent days. He kept on well enough, finishing 0.75l behind KK, who lines up here for Lee. He was receiving 8lb that day,today he receives 18lb I think. The run at Cheltenham in April 16 was decent enough also and that may arguably be the best piece of chase form on offer here in the last 12 months or so. That was off 112, racing off 104 today. So, his mark has been coming down and this does look like one of the easier slogs over fences he has lined up in. young Brendan Powell clearly gets on well with him also. And he is top rated on geegeez speed, which is never a bad thing.

I just thought 8s stood out and I was happy enough to have one last dart. He does usually race prominently enough although there are a few front runners in this. But, given conditions, they may all go steady anyway. I can’t see an excuse here today. He has handled heavy fine in the past – a run at Exeter in heavy was decent, the trip of 3m6f at that track finding him out more than the ground that day- but he still ran well. And he has plenty of winning form in soft.

I didn’t really want to be on anything else at the prices. The fav has stamina to prove and while unexposed they have been weak enough races. KK is getting a bit frustrating to my eye and 11/2 is only fair, without being overly generous I thought. He needs more than on recent runs and I wasn’t sure why he would suddenly show it.He has been running ok, and I always thought looked like stayer,but you have to start questioning that now. Onderun looked like he was out-stayed at Plumpton I thought and was PU LTO. Both of those factors don’t make me want to dive in at 6s personally. Battle Dust is unexposed but clearly tricky and get the visor replacing the cheekpieces. He has had a few breaks but did show something at Bangor. I suppose a big run wouldn’t be a shock but I want to see a tad more. This class an unknown also and he needs to improve on recent runs. Coolking is lazy but may just keep plodding on, but C3 has always been a question/struggle for him. Summary Justice isn’t getting any younger and just looks badly out of form at the moment. He has a big weight here to lug around also. I can’t really have the rest.

It does feel a moderate race and from my memory, having looked at the selection many times in many a race, certainly feels like one of the weaker ones he has lined up in. He ticks enough boxes for me and at 8s I will have a dart. I was surprised he wasn’t around the 5s mark really. I do think this is as far as he wants to go but with any luck he can see this lot off. Most of these, based on recent runs anyway, now have more questions than him to answer.

 

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live Test

2.20 Ling – Allez Vic (#4) (12/1< guide)

4.10 Carl – Blakemount (#2) (12/1,)

 

Handicap hurdle/chase Portfolio – Live Test

3.00 Carl- Kap Jazz

4.00 Ling – Summery Justice

 

***

That will be all for today.

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

13 Comments

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  • Venita Williams and Liam Tredwell

    4.00 Lingfield Summery Justice

    colin leafe 20/02/17 8:55 AM Reply


    • I hope Summery Justice is one to back NTO as the back form shows a winter break, a return run – followed by a win.

      chrisrees 20/02/17 4:10 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh / All

    Stat of the Day

    5.25 Wolves – Lady Hester 6.5 best odds

    John Gosden in C & D class 5, maiden filly races is 7 runs, 6 wins, 7 places

    Good luck with any selections

    Steve Wiseman 20/02/17 9:05 AM Reply


  • I had a nice little conspiracy theory lined up today about a small Midlands yard who were sending one horse 7lbs out of the handicap to Lingfield and another decently handicapped up to Carlisle, since it wasn’t logical to send 2 horses on 500 mile + round trips just for a day out. The theory has been blown a little by Cheat The Cheater being pulled out of the Surrey National but I would still be keen on a small e/w dabble on Giveitachance in the 4.45 at Carlisle, an out and out plodder it does seem to run best in extreme conditions when it can grind on and on and no better track to do that than at Carlisle.
    Good Luck today to all!

    Ian 20/02/17 9:15 AM Reply


    • I don’t like commenting until the race is over (since it’s not as if you’re going to change your bet) but that stable is completely and utterly out of form. I agree the horse looks well treated and has ran some solid races this season but would personally wait until the stable has at least a place before backing him.

      Nick Mazur 20/02/17 5:42 PM Reply


      • Hindsight Nick is a great thing isn’t it. I have to be honest I had assumed trainer form better than it is, you never stop learning do you.

        ian 20/02/17 8:04 PM Reply


  • Good e/w bet can be Bowdler´s Magic 2:30 C and Cultram Abbey
    4:10 C
    BM is two lb off his wining mark Dowson is 5 off,won his lst C4 by 11lengths
    Cultram Abbey Daily is 5 off horse has good stats from C even think to ber win small stakes
    4.oo Ling is see Onderun and Coolking

    Pab 20/02/17 11:08 AM Reply


    • and Dream Flyer looks fine for me at 3:00 C

      Pab 20/02/17 11:10 AM Reply


  • By the way,there is chance for sport betting service,p2p,no bookies,users are creating market,Josh vs Nick,Nick vsMartin etc,cool will be that any transaction will be public,visible thanks to etherum blockchain
    Will you lke to try,still long road it can be done in 2Q 2018

    Pab 20/02/17 11:44 AM Reply


  • I’m EW on Delgany Demon , 400 Lingfield, but I got 12/1 last night I don’t think I would be backing it at 7s.

    Marcin Sudol 20/02/17 12:13 PM Reply


  • Does anyone have knowledge or had dealings with UK SpeedRatings ltd of Bath. Any ihfo would be appreciated

    Bernard Buxton 20/02/17 12:54 PM Reply


    • Hi Bernard, i have never heard of them personally.

      Josh 20/02/17 4:22 PM Reply


    • Product Name: UK Speed Ratings

      Author: Paul Lockhart

      Company Name & Contact Details:
      UK Speed Ratings Ltd
      Appt 707 Chremma House,
      14 London Road,
      Guildford
      GU1 2AG
      Tel 01483 321717
      email: enquiry@ukspeedratings.co.uk

      Headline:

      Sensational results to date – £69,300 results to £100 level stake betting. The impressive winners clearly demonstrate how the fastest horse always wins any given race – and that’s a proven fact.

      Price: £59 for 2011 membership which expires 31 January 2012

      Money Back Guarantee: None stated

      What Do You Get?

      – UK Horse race winner tipping system accessed via standard rate telephone line – based on numerical value representing the horses performance. Approximately 12 bets per month.

      Where To Buy: http://www.ukspeedratings.co.uk/sign_up.htm

      Brief Summary:

      UK Speed Ratings, created by Paul Lockhart identify the ideal conditions for a horse and only advise a bet when certain that everything is in your favour. When the time arises that a horse is outstanding in its field by way of speed, then a selection is advised on a betting scale of 1 to 5; 5 being the maximum bet.

      What’s It All About?

      Forget the website hype – the reality is nothing like that described. This is an amateurish phone line tipping service.

      How Much Money Do I Need To Get Started?

      No guidance given (despite site claims re staking plan)

      How Much Money Can I Make?

      50% of bank lost with 2% progressive staking plan in absence of advice other than Small or Maximum bet.

      How Much Time Will I Need To Make This Work?

      About 5 minutes daily if you really must.

      Will I Need Any Equipment To Do This?

      Telephone line after initial sign up.

      Value For Money?

      No – the service is not what it claims to be on the website.

      Quality Of Customer Service?

      Poor – email requests for results missing from website ignored and telephone enquiries given brief and inadequate response.

      Mid-Point Review 02/03/2011

      Even though the money that has been paid to subscribe to this “service” has been paid by this publication and so I am not personally in deficit here it still makes my blood boil when the reality is so far removed from the claims in the promotional material. My main difficulty is where to start!

      You may start to worry when you see that the results on the website have huge holes in them – there are several months missing from 2010 and the January 2011 disclosure implies that pretty much every bet was a winner. Well I suppose they do claim a 75% strike rate is possible.

      When you sign up for this service this is what the web site says:

      “All new subscribers to UK>SpeedRatings will be sent confirmation via post. Mainline customers are advised to call a standard rate telephone line on a daily basis, however not every day a selection will be given.

      Call time is at 12 noon. We do not buy into hype, we prefer to concentrate on hard-hitting facts and figures. You can be comfortable in the knowledge that any selection that is given by us at UK>SpeedRatings has undergone various rigours of speed analysis to produce the results we require.”

      Well 3 days after signing up I had received a big fat zero either by post or email so I called the office to be told that they do not send anything by post now as it costs too much and all the information would be given on the phone line.

      I then received an email asking for my mobile phone number – no reason given – and on providing this was told the telephone number to call each day was turns out to be an 0871 type which is not of course a Standard rate number. More of this later.

      The site claims that all selections are based on a system and will rate selections from 1 – 5 and then stresses the importance of a staking plan.

      When I called again to ask when the staking plan would be received I was advised that there is not actually a plan but clients should just bet their normal amount for the time being.

      Now we had not even had a tip yet and the alarm bells were ringing loudly.

      And so to calling for tips. The line does actually work and you are then subjected to what I can only call a tirade of meaningless chatter which includes the actual tips at some point in the message.

      There is an added bonus here in that you have the sounds of children crying in the background to add what effect I am not quite sure.

      The person giving the tips could easily be mistaken for Joe Walker out of Dad’s Army in terms of presentational confidence building. There is no reference to the rating system when the tips are given and no other justification offered.

      The only retrospective comment so far has been to crow about a winner but with the bank at only 80% of starting level using a 2% progressive stake you will appreciate this has not happened much.

      I think the quality of the service can be summed up by a tip from 26 February which was described as “The best each way tip of the month” which upon investigation was a 8/1 shot that had previously fallen, and unseated its rider in the last 2 races, was rated 8th or 9th by racing post and topspeed and was running in a 3 mile handicap chase on heavy ground.

      The horse had to be pulled up during the race. Another horse was tipped with the words “I cannot see this getting beaten” which was a 4/1 shot that came 7th.

      In summary from 23 tips (which took a total of 16 minutes to give on the expensive rate phone line) just 4 have managed to return anything to the betting bank.

      The tipping advice given is along the lines of “have a good bet here” or “have a maximum each way bet here” and “have a good bet on this one to win”.

      Frankly the service does not justify any of the claims made in its marketing and I shall be watching closely to see if the February results published reflect reality – if they are published at all.

      Final Review 23/03/2011

      This website should should carry a wealth warning prominently displayed to warn the unwary. It is the nearest to pure scam that I have come across and the owner is not prepared to listen to any criticism of the service.

      It is not so much that a tipping service has a bad run that matters but how they deal with it and whether they disclose the current situation fully. I have already commented about the results gap for last year and there has been no update for 2011 results either which is hardly surprising as they are pathetic.

      Our friend “Walker” still chirps merrily on the expensive phone line – which I have a sneaky feeling is a major source of income for him as we have had 2 recent calls where either he gave the wrong day to call back or the runners planned have now become non runners.

      In the latter case I specifically checked all races the minute the call had ended using oddschecker and there had been NO withdrawals at any meeting that morning – so he could easily have sent an email the night before to clients saying don’t call but that would mean no income for him. (In the review time I had to spend 31 minutes on the line to him which will have generated an additional income for him.)

      The results are shown in the spreadsheet below and rather than look at the figures, look at the length of the phone calls and in the extreme right had column extracts from what he said about specific horses.

      The classic was on 9 March when for StoneAcre Gareth “it is out of the question that this horse gets beat – it’s a 10 star maximum bet”.

      It came 4th and the Timeform radio commentator suggested that the chances of him ever running at Lingfield again were remote as the course clearly did not suit the horse.

      4 winners and 1 place out of 38 selections is the summary of this awful services performance. In fact using it as a lay tipping service would have produced 20 points profit as opposed to the 35 point loss seen in the trial.

      A friend of mine called the service to enquire as a potential subscriber during the week of 12 March and was told that the service was “doing well at the moment” and that he should sign up pronto as the special £59 price was going soon.

      Blatant lies I’m afraid as regards the results which you can clearly see on the spreadsheet – just 1 winner in 16 days.

      The imprecision of the tips has continued and I cannot find anything positive to say about this service. Everything in the tile is wrong – UK it is not as he has Irish tips, Speed most definitely not as can be seen from the results and Ratings were conspicuous by their absence. Avoid it at all costs unless you are looking for a good lay tipper.

      Norman 20/02/17 4:42 PM Reply


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