TTP Jumps Notes: SAT 18/02/17 (complete)

1.The Ratings Pointers

2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.The Ratings Pointers

HorseRaceBase

Top Rated

2.25 Ascot – Tenor Nivernais

Top 3

2.25 Ascot- Virak

3.00 Ascot – Air Horse One

3.15 Hayd – Vieux Lion Rouge 

3.20 Winc – Dadsintrouble

 

Geegeez Speed

Top Rated

3.15 Hayd – Vieux Lion Rouge 

Top 3

2.25 Ascot- Tenor Nivernais

 

2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

ASCOT

2.25 –

Virak (all hncps + hncp chase) 7/1

Tenor Nivernais (all hncps + micro going) 8/1

3.00

Connetable (all hncps + micro class) 28/1

Cyrname (all hncps + micro class) 14/1

Air Horse One (all hncps + hncp h) 7/1

Oscar Hoof (micro handicap h debut) 16/1

 

HAYDOCK

2.40 – Big River (micro going IF soft) 8/1

3.15 – Vieux Lion Rouge (all hncps + hncp chase + micro TJC) 7/1

 

WINCANTON

3.20 –

Dadsintrouble (hncp hurdles) 5/1

Persian Delight (hncp h) 15/8

 

BONUS

2.30 Gow – Owennacurra Milan (trainer/track/hncp chase) 25/1

 

3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

There may be a few go off in the 11.00+ range and having had a flick through you could give every runner some sort of chance today.

Of the 10/1+ shots as of morning prices there are three in the 3.00, and given their profiles you couldn’t be bullish about ruling them out.

Connetable is only having his 7th hurdle run and while he may have been disappointing on the odd run he does get first time blinkers,which may be a reason for any improvement. Also drops in trip from last run.

Cyrname is a lightly raced horse and still in the ‘could be anything’ category, including not very good but there isn’t much to go on. The market can be some guide for Nicholls handicap hurdlers. 14/1-20/1 are 6/175,39p, 22/1-40/1 are 3/97,13p.

Oscar Hoof makes handicap debut and is unexposed. He has had 1000+ days off though and the market can guide- but Henderson is well adept at readying a horse after such a break.

The other biggie as I write is at Gowran- he is a 12yo returning after 290+ days. He is 0/6,2p after 60+ days off before, and now 0/8,3p at the trip, with wins over 16f. He is lightly raced over fences though. But, on balance, he seems to have a few big questions to answer here and the market may well guide.

Hopefully there are some winners scattered about today. The ratings pointers horses look solid enough to my eye, at their prices, also.

GL with however you play them.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

IMPORTANT NOTE…

I have spent a few hours on Friday trawling through all selections since the Members Club started properly on the 1st Oct, with the daily posts. The focus has been on the 10/1+ shots to BFSP, with the following results…

  • Oct: 6/71, 10p = +19.29
  • Nov: 9/122,28p = -20
  • Dec: 8/132, 21p = +123
  • Jan: 16/116,32p = +158

 

Totals before Feb, 10/1+ approach: 39/441,91p, 9% win SR, 20% win/place = +266 points BFSP (after 5% commission)

Those stats include one 50/1 ISP winner, returned 150/1 BFSP, and a 25/1 ISP winner, returned 50/1 BFSP.

***

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5. Hunter Chase – Test

Trainers (16/1)

Pearlysteps

Jockeys (33/1<)

Pearlysteps

 

6. SAT Big Race Trends/Stats

Some Big Race Trends for now, before everything else follows later this afternoon (10am as I write) 

A couple of 3m+ chases of interest. The first is that Handicap Listed Chase at Ascot but they have only had 6 renewals and as such any stats/trends analysis a bit pointless. Having had a quick scan, nothing jumped out at me. That leaves Haydock…

I will try and stick to the ‘winning profile’ approach in general, trying to find stats/trends that every winner, or a large chunk, had hit..

The Grand National Trial

Some 19 year stats, before a 10 year look…

(1 winner down as having ‘no run’ which in HRB means they didn’t have any UK/Irish form, so some of these are x/18)

  • 15/18 Top 3 LTO
    • 14/18 Top 2 LTO
    • 9/18 WON LTO, +29 SP
  • 19/19 20/1 or shorter SP
  • 12 year olds+ : 0/21,3p
  • Days Since Run, of interest…
    • 1-15 days: 4/32,0p
    • 16-30: 0/70, 14p
    • 31-60: 11/113,31p
    • 61-90: 0/18,0p
    • 91-365: 3/10,5p
  • Had run over 4m3f+ at some point in career (i think that is THE Grand National) 
    • 0/55,10p

Some 10 year pointers…

(10/138 runners, 33 placed horses)

  • 10/10 had 14+ career runs
    • 13 or fewer: 0/18,1p
  • 10/10 had 7+ handicap runs
    • 6 or fewer: 0/33,4p
    • 7 handicap runs exactly: 5/9,5p, +32 (odd, but interesting)
  • 10/10 had 14 or fewer chase runs
    • 15+ : 0/44,11p
  • 10/10 had won at least once on last 4 starts
    • Had Not: 0/59,12p
  • 10/10 had 2-4 chase wins
    • 0-1: 0/21,2p
    • 5+: 0/18,5p (place stats ok though)
  • 9/10 had run over 25f or further LTO
    • Did Not: 1/48,9p
  • 8/10 Top 2 LTO
    • 6/36,15p won LTO)
  • 8/10 ran 31-60 days ago
    • ran within the prev 30 days: 1/48,12p
  • Winners at all weights
    • 11-12… 2/12,6p (so,don’t be put off necessarily)
  • Previous Distance Winners: 3/12,4p
  • Wearing Headgear of any sort: 0/44,8p

Track LTO: 

  • Chep: 4/30,9p
  • 1 win: Sand/Kelso/Chelt/Ayr/Weth/Plump
  • Warwick: 0/16,5p
  • Haydock: 0/27,5p

Trainers: 

  • Lucinda Russell: 3/6,3p
  • 1 win: K Lee/G Moore/V Dartnall/M Scudamore/V Williams
  • NTD: 0/13,1p
  • P Nicholls: 0/9,3p
  • Sue Smith: 0/4,2p

**
‘Shortlist’ :

Well there are a few ways you could slice and dice.. those stats which caught my eye to create some kind of profile…

  • Not Run 16-30 days ago
  • 7+ handicap runs
  • 14 or fewer chase runs
  • Won at least once last 4 starts

I think those four only leave one horse, Vieux Lion Rouge, who was also top 2 LTO and has 2-4 chase wins to his name, both positives. Negatives are that he has run in the Grand National but I don’t know what logic you may attach to that. Now the National weights are out he is free to do as he pleases now. He is top rated geegeez speed and looks interesting enough. 

You could just focus on those that finished Top 2 LTO and had won once in last 4 starts which look interesting: Vieux Lion Rouge, Kruzhlinin,Tour Des Champs,Good To Know

Anything catch your eye?

 

***

That will be it for today.

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

12 Comments

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  • One to add at G.Park
    2.30 Owennacurra Milan HcCh

    titus_a_duxass 18/02/17 2:51 AM Reply


    • Ah yes, cheers- this time he was on my notepad, appear to have missed him when typing up. Thanks.

      Josh 18/02/17 8:14 AM Reply


  • I’ve made Connetable a strong bet, 300A, this morning EW @ 28/1; didn’t have time to study when 40/1 last night. The defeat of Ravin Black this time last year is strong form and today’s CD and going look perfect, as do the claimer and gear.
    Only a worry about the pace, is a default, and I say this as a shareholder in Divine Spear who is fully expected to acquit himself well.

    chrisrees 18/02/17 12:07 PM Reply


  • hi josh

    high street bookies!!!! william hill have just refused to take a 20p lucky 15 bet totalling £3 off me !

    pendrem 18/02/17 3:21 PM Reply


    • What a disgrace. Did you get on elsewhere

      danegold 18/02/17 11:17 PM Reply


  • Good day today with rating well done Josh

    stephen 18/02/17 4:13 PM Reply


  • thanks Josh excellent day
    Persian Delight @3.75
    Vieux Lion Rouge @8.8
    Air Horse One @9.6
    Dadsintrouble @8.8
    Tenor Nivernais @8.07

    martin whittle 18/02/17 6:07 PM Reply


  • Thanks gents. A weekend has done it again it seems,esp on the ratings pointers front. They were due a day like that after an iffy start to the year but been a good week on that frent I think. Sounds like you had a good day which is the main thing! The ‘saturday/weekend’ record may make for interesting reading come the end of the season. Josh

    Josh 18/02/17 7:05 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh just got in…Well done mate… I had the 3 winners which pulled me ahead, and of course you hit the winner at H at last, so things are on the up for you.

    Well done again.

    tonymc 18/02/17 8:04 PM Reply


  • Well done Josh and well done to all who weighed in…. Felt like doing a boom but must be the brewdog kicking in apologies. Knew you claw it back Josh

    stephen 18/02/17 8:41 PM Reply


    • Ah we will boom at the end of April with any luck! I trust the approach and the core stats work and have done since Oct. When you have no odds caps it will be bloody bumpy at times but you can get back losses in short time,as the ratings pointers have done this week. 10s+ need a winner or two but they will come. But been painful month for followers of those so far. On we go.

      Josh 18/02/17 8:48 PM Reply


      • You could say that was a good day. Thanks

        danegold 18/02/17 11:16 PM Reply


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