TTP Jumps Notes: 16/02/17 (complete)

1.The Ratings Pointers

2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

4.Any general messages/updates etc

**

1.The Ratings Pointers

HorseRaceBase

Top Rated

4.20 Leic- Song Saa WON 4/6

Top 3

2.35 Leic- Storming Strumpet (bonus) 2nd 9/4

 

Geegeez Speed

Top rated

none.

Top 3

4.20 Leic- Song Saa WON 4/6

2.35 Leic- Storming Srumpet (bonus) 2nd 9/4

 

2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

KELSO

3.35 –

Top Billing (all hncps + micro class) 14 9/1 UP >11/2, 13.1 BFSP

Landecker (micro distance) 8/1 – 2nd >7/2

 

LEICESTER

3.10 – Always On The Run (all hncps)14  7/1 2nd >10/1, 12.7 BFSP

4.20 – Son Saa (all hncps)14 11/10 WON 4/6 (hefty R4 I think?..)

 

Bonus

2.35 Leic- Storming Srumpet 14  2/1 2nd 9/4

 

3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

Well not much to add today really. Two of the George horses/ratings pointers a bit short for my own liking although both would seem to have solid enough chances,as indicated by the market.  You wouldn’t be shocked if he had a double there today but rarely does it work out that way. Always On The Run does look the weakest of the three to my sometimes dodgy eye- he has stamina questions, esp around here in soft. His jumping was poor the last day also. He does have ability.

The focus for any 11.00 BFSP+ backers may be the 3.35 Kelso. Landecker likes the track- the only place he has won- and although his last win isn’t working out well, that run at Haydock in November looks decent form. Although beaten into 5th, the 4 in front of him have all come out and won a few times between them. It looks like he needs it soft/stamina test, and I am not sure Muss would have suited the last day. Top Billing would have a chance at his best- the headgear is removed- he is a thinker, he would win and keep ploughing through the mud, he could have the jockey at work early on and be tailed off after the first few. He is dangerous if able to get an easy lead. Both look interesting in an open enough handicap with a couple of in form horses.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

I will publish this month’s research article Thursday morning which includes a few stats for Cheltenham, some freshened up from last year’s stats/trends guide.

 

5. Hunter Chase – Live Test 

Trainers (16/1<)

4.05 Kelso- Black Thunder

Jockeys (33/1<)

4.05 Kelso – Black Thunder

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

3 Comments

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  • Hi Josh,
    Just a quick query about Hunters. I’ve got Tom G’s runner Olofi and N.Orpwood’s ride Street Entertainer in L 4.50 but as it is a novice race I’m now assuming they don’t qualify. Had a small punt anyway but just wondered.
    Cheers
    Mike

    titus_a_duxass 16/02/17 1:24 AM Reply


    • Hi Mike,
      Ah good spot. Well in my HRB system I just have hunter chases, and not novice hunters, which is why they didn’t come up.
      Having had a dive in with the normal system rules and looked at Novice Hunters…

      The trainers are 1/9,2p… that one winner provided by… Mr Tom George…

      The jockeys… overall 4/28,9p, +25, so profitable,although ‘only’ 14% SR…when digging by jockeys though…
      Mr Orpwood is 1/3,2p in novice hunters, +20… Miss C V Hart (changed name I think,now married,need to see if updated in hrb) 2/5,4p such runners.

      So, maybe those two are worth a closer look, Street Entertainer looks interesting enough at the price maybe.

      I won’t include them officially for now, but we can keep an eye on Novice hunters on an ad hoc basis- I don’t think there are too many of them.

      Josh

      Josh 16/02/17 9:03 AM Reply


      • Thanks for clarifying Josh. Given the small number of race type I’ll plunge in anyway so will have a record of all bets if you require an update.
        Mike

        titus_a_duxass 16/02/17 9:50 AM Reply


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