FREE DAILY POST: 16/02/17 (complete)

 

TIPS

none.

 

MICRO ANGLES/SYSTEMS

Tom George Chasers (any odds)

2.25 Leic- Storming Strumpet 2nd 9/4…*

*twice now he has been outstayed up that Leicester hill near the end,having looked like the winner. Travels well,jumps ok…maybe he needs a flatter finish, one for Ludlow maybe, goes on good so no shock were we to see him at Perth one day, during the summer- trainer likes both those tracks.

4.20 Leic- Song Saa WON 4/6

 

Handicap hurdle/chase portfolio– Live Test

3.10 Leic- Always On The Run 2nd 10/1

3.35 Kel – Top Billing UP

**

This is now the ‘Form! Form! Form!’ TEST section…

In this little corner of the blog I will attempt to go on a journey of improving my use of ‘form’ and form analysis and using this as a starting point. And in general just trying to improve my ability at ‘attacking a race cold’, which is my code for not having the comfort blanket of some stats research The main core really is looking at horses that have run well recently (within 30 days or 45 days generally…some thinking that the longer ago a race was, the less meaningful the form,although there will always be exceptions) in races that have produced subsequent winners/placed horses. These subsequent performers may have won at the same level, or competed well in a higher class. Distance beaten can be important also – were the front two miles clear of the rest (Pauling’s handicap hurdle winner at Towcester yesterday an example of that- last race front two were way ahead of the rest and the winner that day was smart/improving) etc.

That is the starting point. From there we can then look at the horse, race conditions,trainer, jockey, pace- all the other things that maybe I would have used as ‘starting points’ but that should maybe underpin any ‘form’ analysis. In theory, at least we know any selection has been running in a race (s) that has been working out well. That should be a solid starting point, in theory.

And now for practice…

8.00 Chelmsford

Diamond Indulgence – 1 point win – (test) 15/2 (SB/BV) 7/1 (general) (8/1 general…seems to be on the drift already,and money seems to talk in the AW?, gulp…)* UP 

*oh well. It looked ok on paper! Nibbled back into 7s from 10s, she hasn’t really gone a yard there through latter half of the race- that wasn’t her running, either hating the kick-back, or not like the surface, or having an off day. Moving on, swiftly…

The Form…

I am casting my eye back to two runs ago at Newcastle over the straight 6f. The selection ran on well that day into 4th, on her first handicap. In front of her was Pushkin Museum-  2/2 at C6 since that run, in front of him, Spirit of Zebedee –  1/1 , C6 since that run… NOTEBOOK KLAXON! In front of all of those, and the winner of that race- FIRST EXCEL.. who may well be no price NTO, esp if returned to CD, but clearly that form, for C6 level, can’t have worked out much better. He would appear to have beaten the right horses. I would like to think this is what form experts call ‘solid form’.

So, that was a decent race for the level. Given the trip and her inexperience,the selection ran well. She then ran at Kempton 19 days ago… that race has produced a winner who was down the field – not so much a strong form race… BUT…she again ran well. The winner dictated all the way that day and DI ran into a bit of trouble also. But, as she did at Newcastle, she stayed on well, and wasn’t given a really hard time.

We have the form I think, but we need more…

Positives…

The first one is the step up in trip…to 7f. She ran at Southwell in a Maiden but it looks like this is exactly what she wants now- her dam was a 7f winner and also related to a 9f winner. The way she has run the last twice screams that this step up should suit, and could be the making of her. And she is running well don’t forget, showing promise.

She is also unexposed, this her 3rd handicap run. We like unexposed horses. We like unexposed horses doing something different from their last run, in the pursuit of improvement. Tick and tick.

Now to the trainer…ah, the comfort zone… well Mr Shaw is ‘in form’ (according to Geegeez metrics), 2/7,3p in the last 14 days. In teh 14 days before that (when the selection was running) he was 0/13,2p. So, there are positives there. The yard seem to be hitting a little run. The jockey is also in form- we like a confident jockey- 3/10,4p in the last 14 days.

Martin Lane takes the ride for the first time…interesting… Trainer and Jockey are 5/25,11 places here in handicaps. Solid. +9 SP. 0/4,2p at the distance, 1/7,2p at the class. The trainer is 0/12,5p here at the distance, most of those 5 places have gone close. No worries on that score.

In reality, I don’t think I could tick many more boxes with this approach. I would like to think if all future horses ticked those boxes above- ‘form’, horse running well,recent run,fit,unexposed,staying on- looking like in need of a step up in trip,trainer in form, jockey in form, solid trainer/jockey stats at the track – … that in theory, over time, with 7s+ shots, we should do alright…

Negatives…

Well, she has been held up, or come from the back – i suggest that is because a mixture of inexperience and actually not having the pace to be any closer in the early part of the last couple of races maybe. Certainly Newcastle. And being held up off what must have been a steady pace LTO (winner led all the way/dictated- and was in form) wouldn’t have helped either. She is well drawn here today and given they may go a tad slower, hopefully Lane can get her in a decent position. There isn’t loads of pace on paper and that is a concern. If she is held up that is also a concern, but there could be a parting of the Red Sea on the inside rail that she can go through.

That for me, is the only real negative- her running style/how race may play out. With 7/1 shots I think I can take that chance given all the other positives.

Oh and I suppose the track is an unknown, but I will just trust the trainer. Sire stats look ok for the course, and the distance. 7s allows that chance I think.

( i should add that Spirit of Zebedee goes in the 4.30 Ling, 10/3, so will be interesting to see how he goes..) WON…that’s that form line boosted, now for a never sighted, tailed off last!….

This is a TEST section, but in truth I will be backing that one, probably for a crisp £10 note. Mug. We all know she may be tailed off (i mean it is me betting on the AW, although yesterday’s first main musing came a head second) and I will stare into the abyss. But, on paper, with this new approach, she ticks all the boxes you want ticking I think. She looks solid and will surely run a good race here.

Time will tell…

there may be more… I will still keep an eye on handicap debutants and ‘pace’ over fences..but should maybe dip in a bit more. Although I should try and become good at ‘form’ as the starting point. And my chasing game still needs work.

The 3m+ chases are still the standing dish, but when there isn’t one of those to attack, I will attempt to develop the ‘form’ side of things.

 

That will be all for today… although I will be keeping an eye on AURIC GOLDFINGER* in the 1.45, for the ‘form’ approach. 5/2 a bit short for me but his form looks decent enough, horses from recent races have come out and run well- trainer in red hot form, top 3 speed figure, won over CD LTO and now looks to have got the hang of things, there could be more to come. He is usually held up so I found it of interest that Hannon has another in here, for the same owners I think, who has made the running- I wonder if he is in here as a pace setter. 5/2 short for me but ticks plenty of boxes, much like the selection. Along with Spirit of Zebedee that is a couple to keep an eye on.

*and that’s why it is important to get a decent price on hold up types i think… stable mate didn’t go on, there wasn’t a frenetic pace, fav held up way back,made up loads of ground up straight but was never going to get there. Clearly still in form and probably some more to come, but needs a much stronger pace and longer to wind up/get going. Might be interesting NTO and be a bigger price maybe. 

That will be all for today.

GL with any bets.

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

31 Comments

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  • Hi Josh / All

    Another no bet day as far as sires go but races much more of interest than today’s fare…….

    1.45 Lingfield – Dragon Dream 15.0 most books

    Been waiting for a “Dragon Pulse” to have there right conditions here in England for a good while now and this one has them tomorrow, If we look at Dragon Pulse progeny between 5F – 7F on Polytrack they have figs of 17,6,10 and for just 7F they are 9,3,6, The selection over 7F on polytrack is 1,1,3 all at Kempton and you can excuse her last two runs as they were over 1M 1/2 on Tapeta and then 1M at Kempton where the combination of wide draw and distance put paid to her chances, She is drawn 1 tomorrow and off a mark of 60 should be well within her compass, just had the 8 runs won off 48 & 53 and a close 3rd off 58 and with normal improvement over a distance and surface she will enjoy 14/1 looks good.

    2.15 Lingfield – All Good 6.0

    A first time out starter for the Carson team who have a 1,1,1 record with Class 6, 6F, Median Auction, Maiden Fillies races here indeed it is the same race they won last year, also this one has the best sire stats over C & D – Equiano 13, 4, 7 with 4 diff winners & 7 diff place horses.

    7.00 Chelmsford – Silver Quay 3.75 best odds

    Another micro angle I’ve been waiting a while for is Dark Angel on Polytrack & Tapeta in class 4 events is 10,4,7 +30.00 SP, +34.53 BFSP with 3 different winners. This one is made more interesting by the big step up in trip from 1M 4F to this 2M trip has won twice at Lingfield over 1M 4F off 75 & 85 and gets in here off 86 of what is potentially a better trip for the horse…Early odds are disappointing though looks well found in the market will wait until tomorrow to see if 4.5 – 5.0 is available.

    8.30 Chelmsford – Topalova 23.0 betbright

    A couple of angles in here Champs Elysses progeny over C & D are 14,5,10 and the stable won this last year, This one however has been off the track 114 days and has yet to place in 9 starts and this is only a 7 runner race so not ideal, so a small play on the exchange tomorrow using the 3 to be placed market with a split stake

    Good Luck with any selections

    Cheers
    Steve

    Steve Wiseman 15/02/17 9:24 PM Reply


    • Bad luck with ‘Dragon’ Steve, that was a good call by you. Don’t know how it ended up unplaced!

      Richard Sutton 16/02/17 1:55 PM Reply


  • Forgot to add that the Dark Angel figs are from 1M 5F to 2M 1/2F, and in the 2.15 All Good is drawn 1 also

    Steve Wiseman 15/02/17 9:28 PM Reply


  • josh you mentioned Geegeez hotform report in yesterdays post I think its the best report they have got there all good been using lately with jockey stats report found thello Tuesday 10/1 into 7/2 Thursday from the same two reports CAVALIERI 7.00 Chelmsford 20/1 only worry is its a class 4 seems like the horse is a class 5 horse but at 20/1 thought it was worth an ew
    Antony

    antony church 15/02/17 10:33 PM Reply


    • Give me a couple of weeks and I think I will be agreeing with you! And criminally it isn’t one I have been using much. Well I haven’t been using too many of the reports recently what with TTP and trying to scrape around for some chasing tipping form. But it is looking like it may be the best ‘way in’ and then using all the other pointers/tools to make a case. We will try the ‘form is the most important factor’ idea go from there.
      Will have a look in morning and see if anything stands out.

      Josh 15/02/17 10:42 PM Reply


    • Funnily enough, I’m doing a little experiment on the Geegeez speed ratings, looking specifically at horses at a price…Cavalieri is miles clear, so thought was worth a punt, although I’ve asked for a price on Betfair rather than take what the layers are offering. Critical Thinking was the other for Thursday in the 320 at Lingfield, but that was mainly cos Ladbrokes dropped a clanger in pricing it up at 16s (into 7/2 now)…pity I could only get 25p on with ’em. 0/2 on the first day lol.
      Paul

      blueboy199 15/02/17 11:08 PM Reply


      • Good luck Paul, many of us seem to like an experiment in these parts! You will have to keep us posted with progress. I suspect that approach will find the odd nice priced winner, paying for a few losers, and leaving some nice profits over time.

        Josh 16/02/17 10:07 AM Reply


  • I may have to consider using a different stats site with the launch of the new Racing Post setup,has become very labourious navigating compared to the old set up,the overall track trainer stats that could be accessed from the front page seems to be gone completely,now looks like you have to do it race by race,was wondering if geegeez has anything similar,a daily overall track stats page by trainer,that can be drilled down by trainer-overall-hurdle-chase-nhf as in old rp format

    gearoid180468 15/02/17 11:10 PM Reply


    • Oh well Gerry, I can’t think there are many better sites than geegeez for all things trainer stats. It may well blow you away,esp with ease of use and ability to drill down into trainer. It’s a £1 trial for 30 days with that link to the right. No idea what you pay for RP but only by using it can you see whether it works for you and is value. No amount of words can explain it, have to see with own eyes!

      Josh 15/02/17 11:37 PM Reply


      • (In terms of daily reports etc/non system building. Doesn’t have a system building function but can’t think would ever better HRB so no point in trying on that front)

        Josh 15/02/17 11:43 PM Reply


        • Thanks Josh,will give geegeez a try,i only used rp track stats basic analysis,drilled down trainer with overall profit, trainer-entries(price-no value-back) hurdle,chase,nhf,profit/strike rate-entries-qualifier noted,then jockey and combination,most are mentally embedded but all these shift over time

          gearoid180468 16/02/17 12:19 AM Reply


          • Geegeez are introducing a query function soon and that may help you, Gerry.

            chrisrees 16/02/17 4:23 AM Reply


    • I will repeat what I said yesterday that the proper original Racing Post site can still be accessed it is VERY WELL HIDDEN.

      When confronted by the Beta Home page – go right to the bottom of the page to the “About Us” section at the bottom of the page – there you will see “Return to Racing Post .com” click on it and you get the proper original version. Once you have opened it – you should also go straight back to that version each time you close and then open it.

      I cache clear daily and it seems the best way at the moment of working round the awful Beta site.

      Hope this helps.

      Ian 16/02/17 6:48 AM Reply


      • Thanks Ian. Really useful tip. Other frustrations for me…no radio now on the mobile site, no text commentary on the beta site etc etc seems they want to appeal more to an occasional punter rather than the enthusiast.

        JV 16/02/17 9:54 AM Reply


        • JV – I agree I have had some long and heated emails wit them and basically accused them of abandoning the serious professional punter/tipster who are their core market in a desperate and clinical attempt to drive huge affinity profits via bookmaker links. The RP in my humble opinion is no longer interested in information and winners and only interested in Bookmakers and fleecing readers.

          Ian 16/02/17 12:04 PM Reply


        • I can still see text commentary…but totally agree they’ve made a mistake by changing. Perhaps when everyone starts cancelling subscriptions they’ve had since day 1 they’ll realise.

          Steve 16/02/17 3:21 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh

    Loved your write up today using form as the basis, What is impressive is that you’ve covered every angle with like you say “form” underpinning the main reason in, but then having all the other angles/stats to back up the reason for backing this one….It paints a beautiful picture which everyone can see and regardless of result I believe this approach will find many winners and the consistency of overall performances will be improved too Great Work

    Cheers
    Steve

    Steve Wiseman 16/02/17 9:39 AM Reply


    • Cheers Steve… it is all there. There really is no excuse given the tools I use and I would like to think my brain is ok/have the appetite to learn etc. As with all things it will be a question of development but touch wood we will do ok. And it gives readers something useful/of interest to flick through with any luck. I know the micro systems etc not for everyone and I would quite like to get better at this game. With any luck that more logical, step by step, approach may help with the chasers.. hopefully the ‘form’ and ‘pace’ (who may lead,are they good enough to stay there etc) approach, which could well be the starting point, may see a turnaround. Always plenty to play around with!

      Maybe not today mind, now 10s- although the last 10 mins or so often most telling on the sand I think. If Spirt of Z runs well, that would be nice. 10s feels rather big, now looking solid EW material.

      Josh 16/02/17 10:05 AM Reply


      • addendum…. I forgot…but if we had a marker for fast starting horses then maybe it would be a great aid on the AW.
        Tony Mc.

        tonymc 16/02/17 12:06 PM Reply


    • Hi Steve I totally agree on Josh’s approach. However in this case….it’s all about getting out of the stall [1]..don’t; and your trapped.
      I forget the race I backed over 5f..of your pick. On paper a great chance..Yesterday? Anyway, as soon as I saw the towel go over the head I knew it was a goner out of stall 1. and so it proved…It was a young girl, but it would have been the same had it been a top class rider.
      If you could split the stats and backtrack 50 starts for stall 1…The win
      split rockets. the % for slowly out drops alarmingly…So the 8% it’s showing from my stats goes way up to 56% for a quick starter.
      I know this is rambling…lol…but it’s an imponderable you have no control over…Unlike NH.
      I have had a dabble though.

      tonymc 16/02/17 12:04 PM Reply


      • Yep, stall 1-2 stats over this trip, this many runners, fine from what I can see and you simply have to factor in such concerns to the price. I thought 7s was ok, now 10s, given all the other pointers. May well get stuck behind a wall, may well get a gap, may well break out and hold a position in 3rd/4th, no problem. Only one way to find out…

        Josh 16/02/17 12:21 PM Reply


        • Best of luck to Luke Mcjannet today.1st runner as a trainer in the 8.00 FREE TO ROAM. It’s no without a chance either.Has won after a break,4lb below winning mark,closely matched with Fav Mr potter on beverley run last may,headgear 1st time and booking of Luke Morris big plus,only neg is the draw At 20/1 worth a second look i think.

          mozzer 16/02/17 1:15 PM Reply


  • Hey Josh,

    I totally agree with Steve about your write up 🙂

    For me not really a race I want to get involved in myself, but will watch and cheer her on for you hopefully first past the post.

    Top stuff Josh

    Gavin 16/02/17 11:10 AM Reply


    • Cheers Gavin, we shall see! The market appears to be agreeing with you, but that hopefully knows sod all on this occasion. May need some luck in running but would be a nice start for the ‘test’.

      Josh 16/02/17 11:12 AM Reply


  • Josh

    Pedantic I know but just so that folks don’t miss it, Top Billing runs in the 3.35 at Kelso not the 2.25.

    Tom M 16/02/17 12:22 PM Reply


    • Please do continue to be pedantic,that happens from time to time, and a few times recently! I think all my systems/times/horses in HRB blur into one sometimes! Cheers.

      Josh 16/02/17 1:43 PM Reply


  • Darran just had a nice winner Josh. Premier Portrait…I took 20/1…..it beat hot shot 1/7 fav. by a nose.

    Just to keep you abreast….Not sure if you indulge…but a good nod in the right direction from you.

    Cheers.. Tony Mc.

    Tony Mc 16/02/17 4:37 PM Reply


    • Yep he was kind enough to add me into his emails, given a nice handful signed up from here which he appreciated. His write ups are great and clearly knows his stuff! A proper expert in his field. I may have had a small EW nibble, didn’t quite get 20s. Was fun to watch.
      You will go skint backing odds on jollys and just shows you should never be scared of one horse.

      Josh 16/02/17 4:41 PM Reply


      • Just had a nice mail from Darran…He never backed it at the price. I think he done it without the fav.. I just done it ew anyway. Just nabbed it on the line.
        A small boned horse. I wonder will it go to Cheltenham or Aintree as it was his first race under rules.? mmm!

        Tony Mc. 16/02/17 8:11 PM Reply


  • D I….Jockey didn’t want this…He let the middle field engulf him, then went through all the bouncing theatricals…….He even started to shorten before the off.

    Next time maybe Josh.

    Tony Mc.

    Tony Mc. 16/02/17 8:07 PM Reply


    • You have more skeptical eyes than me Tony! Horse was never going a yard from what I could see, went ok through first couple furlongs but something was up, either the track, kick back,or just an off day. That wasn’t her running. Issues long before the unknown distance became an issue. Jockey tried for a bit, no point throttling a young horse when they are clearly not travelling. Back to Newcastle maybe.

      Josh 16/02/17 8:10 PM Reply


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