TTP Jumps Notes: 15/02/17 (complete)

1.The Ratings Pointers

2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.The Ratings Pointers

HorseRaceBase

Top Rated

4.20 Newc- Pistol Park  WON 8/13

Top 3

none.

Geegeez Gold

Top Rated

none.

Top 3

2.40 Towc- Two Swallows WON 4/1>11/4

4.20 Newc – Pistol Park WON 8/13

 

2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

TOWCESTER

2.40 – Two Swallows (all hncps) 4/1 WON >11/4

4.10- Musical Wedge (hncp chase) 40/1 UP >

4.40

Corzeam (NHF) 9/1 refused/UP >

Whitley Neill (NHF) 7/1 UP >

 

NEWCASTLE

2.50 –

Dingo Bay (hncp chase) 14 13/2 UP >

Heres To Harry (micro class) 33/1 UP >

3.50 – On A Promise (all hncps + micro going)  14 7/1 UP > 

4.20 – Pistol Park (micro age) 30 6/4 WON 8/13 (35p R4)

4.50 – Anywaythewindblows (NHF) 14 9/2 3rd >

 

3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

Looking at the 10/1+ biggies there are two that jump out and on the face of it they have a bit of work on..

Musical Wedge is around 40s and it may be a name your price job at BFSP, we shall see. The negatives… well he is 13, looks badly out of form, has no win since 2013 and hasn’t shown that much, that often. He is also rock bottom of the HRB ratings. If that fav turns up in the same form he will take the beating but it is a quick return, the headgear may not work again,he has more weight on his back and this is a very quick return. He may well bolt up again. Can we make a case for this one? Well Powell has been booked and he is 3/12,4p on the yards handicap chasers, he is on a basement mark, ground should be fine, and he stays well- just keeps plugging on. He has placed in 14 of his 33 chases as well. And he is 2/9,6p at Towcester in handicap chases. The trainer is 1/64,7p with handicap chasers going off 22/1 or bigger.

He certainly isn’t one to go mad on I don’t think. However I wouldn’t be shocked if he grabbed a place, if able to re-capture some form on his 3rd start after a long break. He could just be ready for retirement of course. I will have a small nibble I think as one of these will drop in one day no doubt and this is ultimately a trainer stats based systematic approach, first and foremost. He would have to be one of the least confident 10s+ bets mind.

Heres To Harry, 33s, is also rock bottom of the HRB ratings but unlike Musical Wedge he is rather lightly raced, 0/8,0p in career to date, but he did place in two points and this is only his 3rd handicap chase. Alexander is 3/94, 10p with handicap chasers in the 14/1-40/1 range, 1/39,2p 22/1-40/1. The market does usually guide but then the odd one goes in. This horse was badly hampered the last day at the first and never in it after that. He has a tongue tie on for the second time which may help and there is always that tactical angle- like what they did with The Orange Rogue the other week- making all, when they had been holding him up. There isn’t  much pace in this to my eye and that is possible. Of course he could be useless,(probably is) and the market may guide. The fact this is only his 3rd chase start makes me wary about leaving him completely in what is a shocker of a race.

Nothing else as I write is in the 10s+ range although it is possibly the two NHF horses in the 4.40 drift out to 11.00+ on the machine- which may not be a positive sign, but both are unraced, from powerful yards, who do ok with horses 1st time out- so, I will just trust the stats on those. On A Promise could drift also in the 3.50 and again that wouldn’t be a positive I don’t think given the yard/horses profile (handicap debut/unexposed- I would expect such types to be well backed if yard were expecting something I think,but I could have that wrong)

Feb is now due a clutch of decent priced winners I feel, mush like the run at the back end of January- I can’t say I am confident on today’s offering but you never know and if in doubt, just trust the stats over time. They have worked well enough so far, since October.

 

How about a poll for fun…

Are You Backing Either Of The Two Biggies?

  • No Josh, you've lost the plot. I will ignore the stats this time. (23%, 11 Votes)
  • I will have a dabble on Musical Wedge To Win (0%, 0 Votes)
  • I will play Musical Wedge to Place (or EW) (17%, 8 Votes)
  • I will back Heres To Harry to win (0%, 0 Votes)
  • I will back Heres To Harry to place or EW (17%, 8 Votes)
  • I will trust the stats and the 10/1+ results,and play both. (43%, 20 Votes)

Total Voters: 43

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

RESULTS UPDATE+ ANALYSIS: READ HERE>>> 

(I would encourage all members to have a flick through,esp if joining anytime recently) 

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That will be all for today.

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

4 Comments

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  • hi josh

    i for one am sticking to the system, £6 win on all TTp 10+, when the next BFSP massive price winner comes along, i will be on it!

    pendrem 15/02/17 10:05 AM Reply


    • Hi Malcolm… yep there is that fear factor and before ratings pointers, and the spreadsheets and seeing just how well 10s+ had been doing, I talked myself out of a fair few nice priced winners which was far from ideal!! I think in most cases I want to have something on them all but some biggies make much more appeal than others – but level stakes does take that thinking out of it. They have been on a poor run since end of Feb but with any luck some nice winners around the corner. You never know, maybe even today! One winner with this approach can/will wipe out bad losing runs from time to time, when we hit a 33/1+ job, just have to be patient- but some 10s-20s winners would be welcome soon.

      Josh 15/02/17 10:18 AM Reply


  • On A Promise in the 3.50 at Newcastle is looking like it might be 10/1+ BFSP – currently 11.5 early afternoon.

    Andy M 15/02/17 1:14 PM Reply


    • yep it is, got my BFSP set up to 11.00 +, we shall see. Although I don’t like the drift with that type really. Looks like he may not be any good, given he isn’t being moved up in trip and if it was a handicap plot job you would expect money. Still, he is unexposed,and ‘could be anything’ still, first run in a handicap- and not the type I want to be second guessing really. Enough of those will go in over time.
      Dingo Bay may edge that was also.

      Josh 15/02/17 1:22 PM Reply


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