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**

This mid-week fare is getting a bit desperate it seems…

TIPS

none. I don’t wish to stray into C5 territory really,not that often. Although the 16/1 winner that got away lines up in the 4.10. He won’t be a price but will be interesting to see how he goes.

 

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Trainer/Jockey Combos- Live Test

2.40 Towc- Socksy (#3) (12/1< guide) UP

4.20 Newc – Wolf Sword (#2) (12/1<)

 

Handicap hurdle/chase portfolio- Live Test

2.40 Towc – Act Now 2nd 11/4

3.50 Newc- On A Promise (x2 angles) UP

4.10 Towc- Sweettothtommy UP

***

 

Form Form Form…

As touched on when discussing Braddock’s book, my approach to form analysis really does need to improve and arguably that should be the starting point. Our very own Nick Mazur rather puts me, and maybe some others, to shame on that front! So, I am going to dabble with form being the dominant starting point/way in- and by that I suppose I am talking about ‘hot form’ – horses that have recently run in races that have produced subsequent win/placed horses, indicating some strength in depth to that performance. It will then be a case of using all the other factors to help support that case… trainer form/jockey stats/horse suitability to conditions/pace/hncp mark/ratings etc.

Given the tools at my disposal there really is no excuse, as with all things it is a matter of time and the effort you put in. Anyone with geegeez gold, using the Hot Form tab, 45 days, sorted by wins, will see why Nick has homed in on Toni’s A Star- I can’t add anything to what Nick has said, at 7s, 15/2 looks solid from what I can see. Trainer form a slight niggle, 1/30, 14 days, but a lot of those have been 16s+. The horse is running in his preferred rest pattern also, that 44 days rest looks a niggle until you realise he seems to run well after such breaks.

I looked at Franco’s Secret in the 6.50 Kempton- I haven’t backed him- but in that run two starts ago he beat a horse who since came out and won a C3 handicap. Franco’s himself then came out again and won here 12 days go. He only ever just does enough but seems to have a willing attitude and that counts for plenty at this level. 5s, 9/2 hasn’t tempted me in on this occasion because the Favs form ties in with his- he chased home that NT) C3 winner, and but for being luckier in the run may have won. Her profile is a bit more exciting I suppose and Baker has been booked. The more off-putting factor, at that price anyway, is the fact he is usually held up and there is no confirmed pace in this. The race is there to be stolen- maybe Franny Norton may try to do that on Dascombes from the front. Possible. There is a chance it is falsely run which can throw up odd results and in any case he will need plenty to fall right. I would want a price on hold up types I think and that is just a shade skinny I think. But, hopefully he runs a good race.

Top Soi looked interesting in the 2.30 Wolvs – a couple of horses that finished around him the last day have since come out and run ok since, placing anyway. He has a good speed rating and is in form, but does bump into one that won well 2 days ago also. He is also a front runner and on paper there is a lot of pace in this- were he more assured of an easy time on the front end I may have been more interested. I also don’t like the 30 days off, 0/5,1p in that rest pattern, 2/4,2p returning 1-15 days so far. He is a bit of a character also by the looks of things. But again, interested to see how he goes.

So, that is me thinking aloud. Those are not ‘tips’ and I haven’t backed either of them. Just a couple of niggles at their prices. I do need to improve at this ‘attacking a race cold’ game. I will get there. One day.

**

NHF trainers…

While looking at some TTP horses today I had a thought about NHF horses- it was when looking at NTDs stats in the 4.40 Towcester- he has a good record with bumper horses on Heavy. That sparked an idea and I am just going to have a quick dive into my HRB account…

So, some logic here… in these conditions a horse will be really tested, especially fitness wise, and some trainers will be better than others at getting their horses fitter for such tests. I think that makes sense. So..

NHF/2014-/heavy+ soft to heavy*

‘Soft To Heavy’ is an official Irish description I think, applicable to Meade below. For everyone else we are just looking at Heavy only. 

 

1st Career Start

Evan Williams: 4/12,4p… +13 BFSP

Noel Meade: 4/15, 9p… +18.46 BFSP

 

All NHF Runnners

P Hobbs: 7/19,11p… +12 BFSP

J Snowden: 4/9,4p… +20 BFSP

NTD: 4/11,5p.. + 8 BFSP

B Ellison: 4/10,6p… +13 BFSP

N Mulholland: 3/6,5p.. +7.63 BFSP

 

Do with that as you please.

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

25 Comments

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  • Another dire days racing again tomorrow,I think socksy will improve for the step up in trip in 2.40 towecester,hopefully Paddy can grind out a win,the early 8 is gone,In the 3.10 Henry Daly is 5-10 with chasers at the track,downside he is 0-7 last 2 weeks,He runs Flashjack,very poor form to date,but he has at least won some sort of race at the track,dont know if 8/1 is value though for one that could be tailed off again

    gearoid180468 14/02/17 8:06 PM Reply


  • Trainer/Jockey Combos- Live Test

    2.40 Newc- Socksy (#3) (12/1< guide)

    Socksy runs at Towcester

    Tony 14/02/17 8:34 PM Reply


  • Nice to get back amongst the winners today.

    Three for me tomorrow. Tonis A Star looks a cracking bet in the 15:00 at Wolves. The form of her last race is working out very well. The winner has won again and went close in a class 3 off 15lbs higher. The 2nd, 3rd, 5th and 13th have all won since and the 9th have won twice. (the 6th and 8th have placed as well). Toni has been dropped 3lbs and now drops down to a class 6. She also returns to Wolverhampton which is where all her AW wins have come (3/8, 4p over CD). She is back down to her last winning mark with the same jockey on board. She seems flexible with regards to running style but I think its a plus that most of the pace is on the outside so she should either be able to lead or track the leader.

    In the 16:10 at Towcester the favourite may be a tough nut to crack but this will be a completely different race and I cant see the rest of the field giving him an easy lead here given most of them like to get on with it. The other thing is he gets to carry 11st9lbs on soft/heavy which is completely different to the 10st1lb he had on LTO. The horse I was drawn to in this race was The Last Bridge. I thought its very interesting that Dickie carries 12st7lbs in the 15:10 but than slims down to 10st2lbs for this race (I’d like to think his mum wouldn’t make him go through that for nothing). In fact if you look at class 5 chases where he has 10st2lbs or less he is an excellent 8/13, 12p and the only time he has finished out of the 1st 2 was back in 2003 (one of the wins was on this horse). The horse will handle the ground and should love the low weight. He is back to his last winning mark.

    Finally I want a small bet on Harry Holland in the 17:50 at Kempton. He clearly didn’t handle Newcastle but should do better here. I think there is very little pace here and the only 2 other front runners look badly out of form. I am hoping Josephine Gordon can take advantage of this and lead from pillar to post. Tom Dascombe is absolutely flying with 6 wins and 7 places from his last 17 runners.

    nickmazur 14/02/17 9:53 PM Reply


    • Top class analysis Nick.

      Cheers mate.

      Tony Mc. 15/02/17 11:38 AM Reply


    • I have to say in all honesty, I missed your winner…Terrific stuff. I had it down as to go back to… but forgot [age]….so curses, as I had a small loss on the day. lol.
      But well done mate.
      Tony Mc.

      Tony Mc. 15/02/17 12:00 PM Reply


  • hi josh/ when you do your racing analysis study which web do you use ?
    i use racing post web….and now they have gone and changed it all .. bloody great

    russ 14/02/17 10:52 PM Reply


    • Russ – I assume you are referring to Racing Post Beta and agree it is awful.

      However, when you go to Racing Post and the Beta site comes up there is still a way to find the “proper” Racing Post.

      Go right to the very bottom of the Beta Home page – at the very bottom you will so “Go to Racingpost.com” click on that and you will be taken to the normal/proper site.

      I know hundreds have complained as the new Beta site is just designed to make betting easier and form analysis is impossible on it – but the way in I have shown you to the old site seems like it may be left switched “on” until at least after Cheltenham.

      As an alternative, with a bit of learning GeegeezGold is far superior and cheaper than Racing Post Ultimate.

      Ian 15/02/17 6:48 AM Reply


    • Hi Russ,
      Sorry for the delay.. I rarely use the Racing Post for race analysis etc but did swing by the other day as I prefer flicking through their cards around lunchtime to get my TTP stats qualifiers. And yes, I didn’t quite like the look/feel/usability!

      In terms of other options I suppose it depends on budget and what kind of thing you like looking at/what information you want. I would say there are three options..
      1. Free… ATRs site is pretty good I hear, getting better all the time. I wouldn’t know as I rarely use that either, but worth checking out to see.

      2. Horse Race Base.. which at £10 per month is more mid-range I suppose- their race cards are decent enough with plenty of tabs to flick through, + all their other stats and features. That has a free trial option I believe

      3. Geegeez.co.uk.. which sets the bar I think now but is a more pricey option at £30 per month- but it is worth it given what it offers, as a package, and following their tipping, Stat of The Day, probably to £5 level stakes, probably pays for the fees over the year. Anyway, you can try that for 30 days for £1 with the big blue box to the right of this post. Worth a look, it may or may not be for you, but once you get to grips with it/an approach that works for you, I doubt you will miss the racing post- at least for race analysis etc.

      I use both the latter two personally and with any luck one will suit you/your approach/budget etc.

      Josh

      Josh 15/02/17 11:22 AM Reply


  • Cracking analysis Nick, much appreciated

    Mark 15/02/17 6:31 AM Reply


  • Amazing stuff Nick,with data going back to 2003,hats off to you.

    michael murphy 15/02/17 8:07 AM Reply


  • i have actually got the afternoon to myself today and with all 3 meetings on ATR i will be settling down with a freshly brewed pot of coffee to watch all the racing. only thing is i know sod all about AW saying that i have had a small bet on 2-00 scrafton and 3-00 tonis a star [courtesy of nick] but any pointers for the other races,just to have a minimum bet for interest, would be gratefully recieved.

    martin whittle 15/02/17 8:18 AM Reply


    • 430W Castilo del Diablo needs this trip and looks to have been targeted.
      520K Rezwaan, better than these, so ‘value’, and significant D Parkes here rather than at Wolv. for Gask.
      Milton Bradley has three runners 550, 820 and 850 so a winner looks assured with top jocks up.
      550 The Bradstocks (!) run Talksalot off a low mark; is it ready after a long lay off?
      Have a good one.

      chrisrees 15/02/17 9:41 AM Reply


      • did those 3 in a 50p ew patent and £1 ew singles for a profit of just over £20 nice one, thanks

        martin whittle 15/02/17 7:55 PM Reply


    • Hi Martin, I have backed Nick’s selection in the 3.00 Toni’s a Star as his write up is compelling.
      I have also had a small win and larger place bets on the following which logically, should be around. Pearl Noir also in the 3.00, and Top Offer 4.00. They both ran well here lto and have decent speed figures at Wolves. Top Offer won this race last year so has probably been targeted. Good luck.

      Richard Sutton 15/02/17 12:46 PM Reply


  • Venita Williams and Liam Tredwell
    3.10 Towcester Buttercup

    colin leafe 15/02/17 11:06 AM Reply


    • Top pick Colin….not many on that…..nor I. lol

      Well done.
      Tony Mc

      tonymc 15/02/17 3:30 PM Reply


    • Ah yes, persistence rewarded! Only a matter of time with those two usually. Well done.

      Josh 15/02/17 3:44 PM Reply


  • Hi, some fancies for today:

    Peaceful Passage, 7.20 KP, conditins to suit.

    Cadeyrn, 4.40 Tow, trainer rates highly.

    Chandon Elysees, 7.50 KP, Gary Moore stable expect to go well.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 15/02/17 12:36 PM Reply


  • I’m wondering if the old boy Stand Guard in the 7.50 Kempton can follow up his last win here up 4lbs in the h/c but has won off a lot heavier in the past also has won 28 times on the A.W 8/1 worth a chance ? 🙂
    Regards Al

    alan haig 15/02/17 1:22 PM Reply


    • Yep I had a brief look at him this morning Al, stood out on geegeez instant expert when flicking through but didn’t think too much more about it. Having looked a bit deeper 8s does seem a tad generous. In the past he has held his form when, when he hits form, often winning a few races in a row. He beat three of these well enough the last day and provided normal running I can’t see why they should necessarily over turn that. The fav would be a danger dropping in class, and there isn’t loads of pace and he is usually mid div. EW feels a bit too cautious, but could be the wise move. I see no reason why he won’t run his race again. I think you have to play him having mused on him! GL

      Josh 15/02/17 2:24 PM Reply


      • Hi Alan / Josh

        The nearest i could find to any decent stats on the AW today is for Stand Guard using the trainer J Butler in 1M 4F, Class 6 handicaps at Kempton he is 5 runs, 3 wins, 3 places with 2 different winners Stand Guard being 1 of them

        Cheers
        Steve

        Steve Wiseman 15/02/17 5:23 PM Reply


        • Cheers Steve, I am chasing some minor losses so have had a small bet on him!! They never go well, and neither do my bets on the sand, but he does look likely to give backers a run for their money, famous last words..

          Josh 15/02/17 5:27 PM Reply


          • Yes he should go well has that tactical turn of speed which has won him so many races despite being 13 he showed it again last time out Good Luck

            Steve Wiseman 15/02/17 5:30 PM Reply


  • Just a quick note for the only 3M + chase on soft going in the 4.10pm today. Haven’t seen the race but by all accounts the leader after the 3rd fence (believe lead till 8th) was Leith Hill Legasi finishing 2nd btn 1.25L

    Steve Wiseman 15/02/17 5:27 PM Reply


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