TTP Jumps Notes: 13/02/17 (complete)

1.The Ratings Pointers

2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

4.Any general messages/updates etc

**

1.The Ratings Pointers

HorseRaceBase

Top Rated

2.40 C- Dace In To The Light UP

4.10 C- I Just Know WON 13/8

 

Top 3

4.30 P – Dragoon Guard 2nd / Work UP

3.40 C – Raise A Spark WON 11/2>9/2/ Beeno 2nd 2/1>6/4

 

Geegeez Speed

Top Rated

2.40 C- Dace In To The Light UP 

3.40 C – Beeno 2nd 

4.10 C- I Just Know WON 13/8

 

Top 3

3.00 P – Amron Kali 3rd 

4.00 P – Act Now WON 9/2>11/4

2.40 C – Almost Gemini 3rd 

3.40 C – Raise A Spark WON 11/2>9/2  / Never Up- UP

4.10 C – Silver Tassie UR

 

2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

PLUMPTON

3.00 –

Amron Kali (all hncps + micro TJC) 14  11/1 3rd 8/1

Kings Walk (micro going IF HEAVY)

4.00

Raising Hope (all hncps)14   12/1 UP 12/1

Act Now (hncp hurdle) 14 ,30 9/2 WON >11/4

4.30

Dragoon Guard (all hncps)14 ,30 13/2 3rd 7/2

Work (hncp hurdle) 2/1 UP

 

CATTERICK 

2.40

Danceintothelight (all hncps + micro distance/ going)14   11/2 UP 7/1

Almost Gemini (all hncps) 10/3 3rd 5/1

3.40

Raise A Spark (all hcnps + micro going/ age)14   11/2 WON 9/2

Never Up (all hncps + micro TJC/ runs this season) 8/1 UP

Beeno (all hncps) 2/1 2nd 6/4

4.10

Katchenko (all hncps + hncp chase+ micro going/ age)14   11/1 2nd 12/1

I Just Know (all hncps + hncp chase + micro TJC/class/runs this season) 13/8 WON 13/8

Silver Tassie (hncp chase) 14/1 UR

 

3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

In the 10/1+ range as I write there are 4…

The two Henderson horses at Plumpton look of most interest to my eye today, especially Amron Kali who looks overpriced. The trainer is in form and so is the horse, and he is a ratings pointer horse. This is also only his 3rd start for the trainer. He won well enough two starts ago, admittedly in C5, but it shows he handles this kind of test. He ran well in a better race LTO on better ground and may appreciate this return to softer. From the 10/1+ horses he is the one I am most interested in.

His Raising Hope is of interest also – he is now 0/8,0p in hurdles but just takes a big step up in trip on only his 3rd start for the yard. They may still be getting to know him and the fact Brennan keeps the ride suggests possibly that this step up in distance was his idea, after that last run. He is out of the handicap but it is a poor race and in what could be a test having a light weight will be no bad thing. He may not stay of course but at least he is doing something different and Henderson is good with these Irish cast-offs and will no doubt find the key at some point.

With any luck one of the Henderson pair can win but hopefully they give us a run for our money.

Over to Catterick..

Katachenko- well I am struggling to muster much enthusiasm- he looks a 16f horse and I wonder if McCain is playing silly buggers, protecting his mark/getting it down, in order to win that Red Rum chase again at the Grand National meeting. Given it is worth 56k or so, or was, you can see why. I thought he has struggled to stay over 19f on the odd time I have seen him and I can’t see him staying here in soft- but it is an unknown so who knows. It is a dangerous game ignoring 10s+ shots but my head says to leave him. Clanger alert. And that is just my view, feel free to ignore.

Silver Tassie is more interesting I think in that race I think given he looks more likely to stay – the odd niggle but then again the odd good run over fences. This is easier than the last race although his hold up style can be trouble around here. I think I will have something on him and again at least he is in the ratings pointers… all of them may be running for places anyway if the Smith horse continues to progress and could dominate from the front again. He is a double top rated qualifier and looks sure to go well but is too short for me personally. Maybe they will finish 1-2…

Of the rest… well Never Up may well go off 11.00 or bigger on the machine but given the time off any drift may be a negative from morning odds of around 8s. He has been chasing and you do wonder if Smith is just using a hurdles run to get him up to peak race fitness. But, he is lightly raced over hurdles and if here to run well may do so. You would have to have more confidence in the other two selections in that race I think- again Beeno looks tough to beat if repeating that last run where he bumped into one who has since hacked up again, having tanked through the race himself- 2s on the short end again for me but he looks solid. Some of you like the fun small stakes accumulators and you would have to throw him and I Just Know in any of those I think!.They always go wrong when I try to get too clever so I will leave any such bets personally and as such improve your chances!

None of those under 10s jump out at me personally although the two Honeyball horses look interesting at Plumpton- Act Now has stamina question for me which makes 9/2 short enough, esp as she hasn’t been running well either. Dragoon Guard for the Geegeez syndicate is of more interest at around 13/2- he has had a wind op according to Harry Cs blog (link posted by Neil on free post, cheers) and is unexposed- so on that basis of interest. Market can guide for that yard.

I suppose Danceintothelight has to be of interest given he is another double top rated and a decent price, for those types. I keep thinking the handicapper will catch up but he keeps winning- if he can dictate again here you can see him running another big race and given his form he may not be far away. There may well be something better handicapped now but he does have the best form on offer.

Good luck with whatever you play, hopefully a few winners scattered about. My own personal profit levels today will be down to how those two Henderson horses run I think, and possibly Silver Tassie if Smith’s fluffs his lines. And, you should never be scared of one horse in a handicap chase really. Danceintothelight owes us nothing having won before for the stats but given his position in the ratings I may have a dart, along with Dragoon Guard.

 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Ah such a shame Alchimix fell early on as all the initial signs were exciting- Brooke was dictating the pace he wanted and the horse , to my dodgy eye, looked to be travelling very well (the jockeys hands are usually what I home in on-horse appeared to be going with plenty of controlled zest) and if he stayed I suspect he would have been right in the mix- but you have to jump! Most of the others, if not all of them, drifted somewhat and ran as if the market would suggest! Betfair indicated that none of Pipes were there to run a race, and so that proved sadly. Agent Louise will win soon enough I suspect, esp if dropping back to C5 when possible- the market indicated she wouldn’t be competing- she travelled into it well at the top of the straight before appearing to tire rather quickly.

There are a couple of ‘double top rated’ qualifiers,(in bold red italics)  we don’t get many and I forget what they are on now, 3/5 or something, so it will be interesting how those go.

 

NOTE: Tuesday’s post will be up later than usual, again by 4pm Monday I suspect. I am travelling for the first half of the day.

I will get updated results posted on Tuesday.

**

KEY:(applicable across the blog) 

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 20 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

NOTE: In the ratings pointers above, BOLD indicates a ‘double qualifier,against both ratings’ in RED is a ‘double top rated qualifier- they are 3/4 so far…)

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

5 Comments

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  • Amron Kali is interesting at least like a ew bet

    Pab 12/02/17 9:50 PM Reply


  • hi josh
    from a psychological point of view, it might be worth adding all double top rated TTP to TTP 10+ selections, 2 reasons being will break up a long losing run and as they are profitable will bring more profit. i have convinced myself anyway ! i think theres only been 5 with 3 winning, not as if adding many bets to the 10+ selections

    pendrem 13/02/17 7:49 AM Reply


    • Hi Malcolm… yep, well the results are all recorded now in a way that allows us to slice and dice as you see fit, with the evidence provided. As always it is up to you how you use them etc, I will keep recording results in the same way- and that is a small sample for double top rated but they have done ok so far. It will be interesting how any ratings pointers horses, 10/1+, get on over time. Catching On was in that category and they may end up being a place to focus/have larger stakes- esp as an average of around 1 bet per day I think. Always plenty to think about. Will get updated results posted tomorrow.

      Josh 13/02/17 8:46 AM Reply


  • I just knew I Just Know would win, as I backed the two long shots in that race!

    Good day for the ratings pointers though.

    Andy M 13/02/17 4:39 PM Reply


    • I just know what you mean! I did leave K but he plugged on/stayed on better than I gave him credit for. Appear to have backed the wrong AJH horse although that was agonising to watch. Sadly neither Henderson horse could win but first one ran well enough, possibly out-stayed over that trip. Moderate level mind.
      Yep good to see the RPs horses do well as they had been in the doldrums for a time. The red and black italics horses have been ticking along ok.
      Just working on tomorrow’s post…

      Josh 13/02/17 4:50 PM Reply


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