FREE DAILY POST: 09/02/17 (complete)

The only solace at the moment, tipping wise, is that at least I am finding the odd horse that actually shortens considerably. They say that is the key to long term success, although some of them do actually have to win! It appears that the ground may not have been soft enough for Chase The Spud and I won’t follow him again until the ground is effectively near unraceable. I thought that would be near the heavy side from reports, but I am unsure if it was.  He just seemed to get out-paced I think, couldn’t hold a position, although being a tad keen for a while didn’t help. Maybe he does just need a flat track also, but that was unproven. The winner was unexposed enough so never a shock and  at least one of the 5 stats horses won, this time for the TJC. As I stare at some February notes I pulled together for members I can Smith/Cook in Handicaps,during Feb, are to be feared. A TTP horse chased him home. At least I will always have the trainer stats and it is good to see the TJC trial ticking along, now 6/33, 11p, +24 points.

 

TIPS

1.55 Doncaster

Big Casino – 1 point win, 1/2 point place, 14/1 (general) So, 1/2 point EW,1/2 point win (1/5 points total) UP (distant 4th) 12/1

The money did indeed speak for the winner,somewhat hammered into 4/1. I was right to take on the front two, picked the wrong one to do it with sadly. Going with the big priced- plenty of 10s around last evening- unexposed chaser from a big yard maybe. Has clearly improved for the experience there. Good to see old Carli King back in some form- interesting if the blinkers work again and able to lead again, esp over further on better ground. 

 

Maybe this is a sign that I need taking to a tipping asylum but at 14s I just couldn’t resist, in what looks a rather winnable race to my eye. What drew me in? Well he drops down to class 4 and the cheekpieces return. He is 3/9,8p in all C4 races, 1/5,4p in all class 4 handicap chases. He has been running in decent enough C3s, and been running ok. He has only ever won in headgear so I can forgive the last run, although he went well to a point in a much better race than this I think. His run two starts ago wasn’t great but that was on the back of a heavy fall the time before and he did get out-paced at times. While 2m6f may be as far as he wants to go there are enough ok runs at around this trip for me to not be put off at the price, and he seems versatile enough ground wise. NTD is also in decent enough form and Willie will have learnt a bit from riding him LTO. He is just a very good jockey and seems to be able to handle both codes. This horse did once win a C2 handicap chase at Haydock although that looks a bit of an anomaly now but he does have ability and despite his age this is ‘only’ his 20th chase start.

It also looks like he must go LH over fences, 0/5,0p the other way, and in C4, LH chases he is 1,3,3,2,1. So, some optimism I may get a run for my money. You can pick holes in the odd bit of his profile, ground niggle, (although good to soft in places here), field size, but at 14s with all the above I want to have a go. He can race prominently also and is usually a sound jumper. He has course experience also. We shall see. Maybe I am still distraught after Chase The Spud’s effort and the fact the winner was one of the first I put a line through!

Of the rest..

Well I assume Cyclop may be a non runner with a deduction to follow. The Williams horse won a week race in deep ground after a monster lay-off LTO. He is unexposed and may win. He may also bounce. He may also not be that good. Probably the former but I don’t want to jump on at that price and am happy to take him on. Pauling’s horse only ran a moderate race LTO when much better was expected. I don’t think that was a deep race and this takes a tad more jumping than Bangor. Again, unexposed, I can see why he is near the top of the market but he will need to come on for that run again. Cabrah’s form ties in with his but he was PU the last day and now has the odd question.

Some money is coming for Beggars Cross. I can see why you would take a chance and a double figure price but he has been in awful form over fences, Jonjo’s are still hit and miss, and he does have his stamina to prove. Maybe softer ground will do the trick but I was not jumping out of my chair to back him.

Famous last words…but I can’t have the rest. Plenty of those are out of form and look up against it.

So, there are reasons why Big Casino may run a big race here- cheekpieces returning and the drop in class. His mark is coming down a tad and the trainer is in decent enough form. He should find this easier than recent races. He may get run out of it in the last couple of furlongs if his stamina gives way but on the odd run it has looked like this could be more his trip these days. Hopefully they may even try to make all. Of course he may just be out of form and too long in the tooth, but the price lured me in.

You have permission to say I am off my rocker…

 

***

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Tom George Chasers (any odds)

3.20 Hunt – Song Saa – WON 9/2 > 4/1

 

Handicap hurdle/chase portfolio- LIVE TEST

4.40 Donc- Action Dancer

 

***

Nothing else today. Good luck with any bets.

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

43 Comments

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  • Same here,i have Big Casino on my tomorrow list
    Yet another long is 1:45 HUNTINGDON 20/1 The Jugopolist
    Hunigton horse,rather ew

    Pab 08/02/17 10:29 PM Reply


    • Twojayslad may have something to say exellent lto ride after reurning

      Pab 08/02/17 10:36 PM Reply


    • Big Casino was 5lb above wining mark still,next tme

      Pab 09/02/17 3:09 PM Reply


  • oopphh, that is a left-of-the-dial pick. It all made more sense when I realised his form in this class

    But I think I’ll leave this one and tip my hat to you and everyone who got on, should it go in.

    A few too many doubts for me and I’m hard pushed to back an oldie needing to up his game again

    Ali 08/02/17 10:39 PM Reply


    • Ha I dare say it will just be me that is on! My thinking is he won’t need to improve really. A repeat of his recent best form is prob good enough to be in the mix. One of top two may well have too much and in theory they have yet to show their best. Knowing my luck it will be his first chase C4 LH where he is outside of the places!

      Josh 08/02/17 10:44 PM Reply


  • Having a few quid on Souriyan tomorrow in the 3.30 at Doncaster. Had some decent form hurdling for Jamie Snowden in 2015 before a poor season last year when mixing it between fences and hurdles – probably driven by a bad fall behind Kings Odyssey. Got to be a fair chance that he might improve for a change in stable and Bowen has his string in top form. Mark OK, though not quite convinced he wants 3M on soft ground but will take a chance at 12/1, especially as he is the Bowens’ (both trainer & jockey) sole entry at the track.

    JV 08/02/17 10:39 PM Reply


    • SOURIYAN is an interesting horse bred by the Aga Khan stud, raced for Rouget in France until Dec ’14.
      Purchased by Tom Malone 55K (Trainer Jamie Snowden) and sold to P BOWEN for 10K in Dec ’16.
      Snowden only has a 6-7% SR with hurdlers over the last two years, let us hope for some improvement.

      Clavis 09/02/17 2:06 AM Reply


  • I think I might be joining you in that asylum Josh given my NAP tomorrow is not only trained by Jonjo but also ridden by his son. That aside the horse in question Kelvingrove looks to have a cracking chance in the 15:30 at Doncaster tomorrow. LTO he ran a very creditable race 4.6 lengths 5th in the class 2 handicap which has worked out well. The winner almost followed up in a class 3 off 7lbs higher. The 2nd won a class 2 before running a very solid 5th in the Cleeve. The 7th also won a class 2 last weekend. He drops down into a class 3 and faces a far easier task here. Stable has been in arguably better form recently than most of the season with 4 out of the last 10 runners placing (really should have been 5 if Beg to Differ didn’t fall at the weekend). Jonjo is 3/16, 6p at the course over the past year. Jonjo junior seems to be getting to grips with this riding malarkey. Since the start of 2015 he is 2/7, 3p in handicap hurdles including a 1st and a 2nd in his only runs this year. I think he is very good value for his 7lb claim here. The lay-off shouldn’t be an issue given he has won off far longer before. Looks like a solid e/w bet at the price. I would rate Abbreviate and Swoop to Conquer as the main dangers.

    Staying at Donny I also want a small e/w bet on Global Thrill in the finale. His trainer has done a hell of job of getting his mark down. Four starts ago back in November last year he was only 5 lengths behind the winner in a class 3 off a mark of 106 and is now rated 94 (2nd has won 2 class 4 chases very easily and the 3rd has won a class 3 easily off 3lbs higher). He is now running in his first ever handicap class 5. The stable had their first placed horse earlier this week in about 6 weeks so is starting to exhibit at least a semblance of life. This is by far his easiest assignment for quite some time.

    Moving over to Chelmsford I want a decent sized e/w bet on Bosham in the 19:30. He won the race last year and is 2/3 in class 3 handicaps on the AW. He is 5/9 at the track and 4/6 over 6f. Trainer and jockey are 7/16, 9p at the track over 5 to 6f handicaps. Other than the selection and Zac Brown there appears to be very little pace here so hopefully he will get his way up front.

    Finally I think Kolondra looks a solid bet in the 14:50 at Huntingdon. He was 5th in the Lanzarote which is working out very well with the 3rd who was only just over 2 lengths away winning the big handicap hurdle at Sandown last weekend and the 7th finishing 3rd. Given he is running off the same mark I think he could be well treated. Both the jockey and trainer are in very good form and looks to have ideal conditions. Fehily knows the horse well and is 2/3 on him over hurdles. The horse is 3/8, 5p when returning between 16 and 30 days since his last run. He prefers flat tracks like Huntingdon (3115 with the last coming in the Lanzarote). Should go well.

    nickmazur 08/02/17 11:15 PM Reply


    • So i am in Gibralfaro Kalondra is my best next

      Pab 08/02/17 11:47 PM Reply


    • Top work Nick, Kolandra fairly bolted in. Nice price.

      Josh 09/02/17 2:56 PM Reply


      • It looked potentially tricky that. The Lanzarote is proving a race you can rely on.

        Nick Mazur 09/02/17 3:03 PM Reply


        • Yep, on paper he had the most solid form given that run LTO and this class drop as you pointed out, has been nothing but consistent also and seems to give his all every time on recent evidence. Can see why that price caught your eye, paid for another dud tip so cheers! 🙂

          Josh 09/02/17 3:08 PM Reply


    • That’s a great shout with Kolondra, well done.

      Richard Sutton 09/02/17 2:58 PM Reply


    • Terrific shout Nick. Absolutely top class selection.

      Tony Mc.

      Tony Mc. 09/02/17 2:59 PM Reply


    • Yes it is safe to say that was well handicapped great shout again Nick

      Steve Wiseman 09/02/17 3:00 PM Reply


      • Great i think 15 lengts super class

        Pab 09/02/17 3:07 PM Reply


    • Another super call with Kelvingrove – had 100/30 for a place, thanks.

      Richard Sutton 09/02/17 3:39 PM Reply


    • I think you can mark up the performance of Kelvingrove not the best of trips /ride from young johnjo stayed on well despite this

      Steve Wiseman 09/02/17 3:41 PM Reply


    • Winner given a great ride by the young lady jockey…I thought Abbreviate lost it with a flat footed jump at the last……
      Don’t quite know what to think of Kelvingrove’s performance/ride…..but happy with the EW price……Nice choice |Nick.

      Tony Mc. 09/02/17 3:43 PM Reply


      • I haven’t watched the racing yet since at work although I somehow avoided having a saver on Abbreviate there after Kolondra’s run (considering he finished 1 length behind that one on his last start) but yeah looks like the mistake cost him. I suspect unless the 2nd/3rd go up to much you would expect either to be winning at this sort of level. The ground might have dried up a little too much as well for mine. One thing to definitely take out of today’s racing is quite possibly for the first time this season JONJO IS IN FORM. Bodes well for Rocco’s chances on Sunday.

        Nick Mazur 09/02/17 3:52 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh / All

    A nearly day at Chelmsford with a winner and 3 x decent odds 2nds, Just off the pace was the place to be today and see if that theme continues for the evening meeting tomorrow……There is 1 sire selection and a stat of the day

    3.10 Lingield – Le Tissier 4.5 best odds
    Sir Percy 6 runs, 3 wins, 3 places 50% win and place SR

    3 different winners for above stats

    Stat of the day

    Josey Gordon riding for John Berry has a 12 runs 5 wins 9 place record and they team up with Kilm in the 3.10 lingfield 10.0 most books, She also teams up well with Alex Dunn with a 6,3,3 record and they have Helium 8.0 Bet365 / Skybet in 3.40 Lingfield.

    Good Luck All

    Steve Wiseman 09/02/17 12:16 AM Reply


    • Steve,you will need some luck if you are on Helium as this I have as a seriously good lay. Reason Alex Dunn AW Stats for the last 2 Years Ran 20, 0 wins 0 Places, with only 1 place if you use 5 year search!

      Gary 09/02/17 9:33 AM Reply


      • Hi Gary

        Yes contradicting stats those, maybe this one has a better opportunity with Josey booked we shall see later

        Cheers
        Steve

        Steve Wiseman 09/02/17 1:18 PM Reply


    • I would be wary of any stats for sir percy on the aw, a bit late to be mentioning that tho. I have been following a system based around his progency and after showing great results over a number of months, only to dive off a cliff for most of last year!

      James b 09/02/17 4:31 PM Reply


  • 4.40 Donny – Actiondancer 14/1 I feel is worth a bet

    The horse looks like a gamble waiting to happen and I imagine either tomorrow or one of his next two races, he will be ‘off’.

    Looking through trainer Henry Oliver’s record with his hurdlers (the lower class ones much underplayed by the market), he’s made a habit of giving them a couple of handicap runs and then sending them off to win a weak C5, which could be what happens here.

    Ones that have gone in in the past have won off a mark of around 80. This one goes off 88 so I suspect he might want to get that mark down a bit more. But then again, if tomorrow is the day, I’d be gutted not to have anything on

    Ali 09/02/17 12:30 AM Reply


    • Oliver definitely worked Whispering Harry in this way and set it up to win a few. Latest info from the yard suggests they weren’t overly happy with jumping in a couple of recent runs, so have given plenty of practice. If the jumping holds up it would appear they’re expecting a better run, but still seem to think he’ll need more experience. 33-1 in a few places now suggests the market is agreeing. Trainers are wrong sometimes and all it needs is a few others to underperform, but all in all the signs appear to be that today is not the day. Strongly suspect we won’t see these type prices next time though.

      Steve Cross 09/02/17 12:25 PM Reply


  • Next Lot 1.15 Huntingdon there are bits and pieces of long distance form for Next Lot that suggest this race could suit. Slight question over the ground if softer than the official, fairly lightly raced though and could be open to improvement. 33-1 and maybe higher in a 7 runner race to find out if Phillips has a reasonable handicapper on his hands.

    Steve Cross 09/02/17 12:33 PM Reply


  • I don’t post much here as I concentrate mostly on 2yos. Below are my comments from the debut of Girlofinkandstars who runs today in the Chlms 6.25.
    Girlofinkandstars – Green and skittish in the paddock. The only one with a ok racehorse shape but fat and short of race fitness. Reared on gates opening and lost 5l. Closed up to back of field but then lack of fitness caught up and ultimately disappointing effort. Untypical debut for trainer in that they are usually mentally ready and professional. Maybe she was brought to the racecourse before she was fully fit to try and teach her what it was all about. 70+ if she is not perennially stupid.
    First go in a 0-60 handicap, trainer has a 19% strike rate with those (Geegeez) but present form is only so so. Odd run history as he took her to Le Touquet for her second run. My rating of 70 with a plus sign suggests that whilst she may not be good enough to win a maiden she might be ok. I suppose it may depend upon her not being ‘perennially stupid’.

    alpha2 09/02/17 12:33 PM Reply


    • Always enjoy your 2 year old postings Hugh, looks forward to the summer! (blimey, did I just say that!) Always packed with useful snippets and I for one appreciate the odd occasion you take the time to post. Not sure if there are many 2 year old specialists in the readership.

      Josh 09/02/17 1:05 PM Reply


    • Hi Hugh

      Good info that will watch with interest

      Cheers
      Steve

      Steve Wiseman 09/02/17 1:24 PM Reply


  • Yikes Josh Big Casino 19.5 on BF

    alpha2 09/02/17 1:13 PM Reply


    • I’m wheeling myself of to the asylum as we speak! Maybe some rehab is needed.

      Josh 09/02/17 1:15 PM Reply


  • I like Song saa, he fits my new system which is now 7/14 + 18.8. Should definitely run well.

    John 09/02/17 1:20 PM Reply


    • Boom, easy win. My system now has 9 wins 7 losses at average odds 5,1 that’s crazy.

      John 09/02/17 3:31 PM Reply


    • That was pleasant to watch! Never in much doubt all the way round- always enjoyable when Heskins hands are still and he gets them jumping, superb jock esp over a fence. T George system comes to the rescue again!
      You will have to reveal your system rules one day! Impressive results from small numbers. Well done.

      Josh 09/02/17 3:31 PM Reply


      • Thanks, I’m mainly a layer, but I noticed that some horses just stubbornly defy all my lay filters, so I’m now trying to back them instead. It’s weird that I almost know they’re going to win.

        John 09/02/17 3:43 PM Reply


        • John
          Coupled with Josh’s T George system I had a nice bet, Thanks
          Your system seems to work, will look out for more of your posts in the future.

          Mike

          mickeydee 10/02/17 11:02 AM Reply


  • Big Casino stayed well enough just couldn’t keep up the pace with the front few did back the winner who just about got there and had a saver on casino mainly due to these being the only 2 trainers in the race who had winners at the track in class 4 chases

    Steve Wiseman 09/02/17 2:12 PM Reply


    • Yep maybe he just isn’t at that level anymore/ground soft enough for him – not sure. Or just not good enough. Yep blinkers seemed to work for Carli and got an easy enough lead- one to watch in long distance chases next few runs,esp if no pace and headgear works again- CP seemed to work for a while. Lightly enough raced for age and usually a solid jumper. Winner not a shock given 4th chase run/owner/trainer, was 10s, 8s for long enough I think. He cut out a tad 2 out the last day here- maybe just experience or just one of those from jonjos that occasionally fails to see a race out! clearly confident today.

      Josh 09/02/17 2:17 PM Reply


  • Another very reliable winner from Tom George and A Heskin…..Along with K Lee, he’s a stalwart Josh.

    Tony Mc 09/02/17 3:46 PM Reply


    • And much needed given my tipping! That portfolio seems to be ticking along just fine. Indeed when you add those with the TJC live test, they must be over 60 odd points up in 2017 to date. So, all fine on that front, for now.

      Josh 09/02/17 3:54 PM Reply


  • Talking of back in form Nick….G Moore had another go in today, so maybe it’s time to re-appraise his horses again.

    Tony Mc. 09/02/17 4:25 PM Reply


  • Girlofinkandstars does not seem to like the game. Removed from nagger.

    alpha2 09/02/17 6:31 PM Reply


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