FREE DAILY POST: 08/02/17 (complete)

TIPS

4.30 Carlisle

Chase The Spud – 1 point win – 9/1 (general) UP 5/1*

*well beating the market was the only consolation there but it would be nice if one went in. He was rather keen for early part of the race. Didn’t expect him to down tools like that, scratching my head.  Great ride on the winner, I had stamina/ground concerns around here and was happy to leave at 10s or so this morning. Still, at least the TJC test had a winner, would have preferred RB to get up there though! Good to see him back to form. 

Well I am taking on about 5 system horses when I count what is below and the TTP stats picks in this, which always spells danger!

9/1 has just tempted me in with this one as I think it is too big for a trainer who appears to have been in form for an age. Although, in the 14 days previous to the last two weeks he was ‘only’ 1/21,6 places, and in the last 14 days 5/19,8 places. So, no problems on that front.

I also think he is that mix of battle hardened in conditions yet still open to improvement in a slog, this being his 11th chase start. I am not sure we have seen the best of him yet and he certainly seems to have taken a step forward this year to my eye, well based on that Haydock run. All of his best runs have been on Heavy, which this is verging on, and he just seems to keep going, which is a quality you want here, over this far,in the mud. Two starts ago he bumped into one but wasn’t beaten far and importantly he kept going. He wasn’t going backwards and maybe the 10lbs the winner was receiving told in the end, in that ground/trip. He jumped well there out of the glue which should hold him in good stead here. He also knows the track well enough, having run well to a point here on seasonal reappearance. He was leading between 5 and 4 out where a combination of fitness or as likely the good ground, proved beyond him. I don’t think he has a turn of gears, more relying on a steady gallop that others may not be able to match. He needs it deep. The run the last day was in a very deep race to my eye and I think he paid the price for Brennan being a tad too aggressive. On the final circuit he was leading/disputing for most of the way and Brennan kept riding him into/away from fences to hold a position. It looks like he was having to try too hard to hold a position against better rivals- in the end those exertions told as they turned in. This race isn’t as deep as that and if Brennan can just sit behind the leaders, and ride him like he did at Haydock, he could be picking up the pieces here. He is actually 2/4 RH in chases, 0/6,2p LH, so this return to RH could eek out more from him.

All in all he looked solid in conditions and barring an accident should give me a run for my money as he will keep galloping in this mud, on the evidence to date. 3m2f in heavy, RH,with this stiff uphill finish looks ideal for him. Connections couldn’t be in better form and he is a solid jumper usually. There was plenty to like and I thought 9s was overpriced. If he repeats that Haydock run, he won’t be far away here.

Of the rest…

Clearly you can make a case for plenty. Alfie Spinner may win this again- Lee seems to be improving him so it is a tad dangerous to use past form to make cast iron judgements. But, he is 12 now, and this is deeper than the last day I think, although the second has franked the form. He won’t get an easy lead either. He needed a career best the last day,and got it. Up 7lb he needs another here. He may well do it, but at 7/2, 3/1, he can beat me. I can enjoy him winning at that price, unlike the last day, when he was 12s! (well I could still enjoy seeing him do that)

Hester Flemen is opposable on price also. Unexposed and could be anything, she may hack up. But, she was really poor the last day after a long lay off and is up against battle hardened warriors in here. This will be tough and a smart performance here would mark her as one to follow. Again, at 11/2 or so, happy to leave. The same can be said for Bigirononhisship who clearly has his own ideas about the game- he is lightly raced and entitled to be open to improvement but 5s seems either about right or too short to my eye. He has stamina to prove and at a track like this. And he refused the last day. Both of those may win, wouldn’t be a shock, but I just can’t play them at that price.

I like Cyclop, I don’t like 6/1, given the fact there is a niggle about the stiff finish, he is 0/3,0p in handicaps on heavy, and he can occasionally take a fence with him. Were he 9s/10s+ I may have been tempted in as he was cruising into contention the last day and for my money would have given Alfie Spinner plenty to think about. But, at that price, given those concerns, I was happy to leave. I have no such similar concerns with the selection. He may prove me wrong and with a clear round will be dangerous. He will be thereabouts 3 out if still standing, then just whether he gets up this hill, in heavy.

Blakemount/Swing Hard/Join The Clan I can’t have for one reason or another.

That leaves two. RDB is a grand old servant but isn’t getting any younger, won’t get an easy lead I don’t think, without doing too much, is better with lighter weights (although placed with similar) and is now 0/8,2p chasing on undulation tracks. He has the ability to take this but could be he is regressing slightly now and his last couple of runs have only been ok. But we know he handles heavy.

Russe Blanc is a TTP selection and in the 10/1+ range. As such I will probably have a nibble although my tipping head says he has a few questions to answer. He just looks out of sorts really and was never going the last day. Given he had won in exactly the same conditions last year I can’t see any change in conditions sparking him back to form. The blinkers stay on, and we know at his best he would be right up there. I wonder if Lee has just used a space in the horsebox and another opportunity to get his mark down. She seems to have plans with her chasers and you never know with  this one. (Irish National again?..)The headgear suggests he is not showing them what they would like. 12s is ok and he likes the track. I can see a case. But, Moore would have had the choice and he has just been too poor this season so far for me to tip him. I am struggling to see why he suddenly bounces back to winning form here unless Hughes can work his magic. The use of a 7lb claimer the last twice suggests they think he may need some assistance from the capper and he is still 2lb above his last winning mark. He will have a strong pace to aim at i think. We shall see. If he is clearly travelling and in a rhythm he may run a big race.

So, that’s the lot. On paper there is a lot of pace, in conditions you would think the jocks would take it steady. But there are at least 4 of them who like to lead and Danny Cook may well be aggressive also. You will need to travel and stay here as it looks sure to be a real test.

I would like to think the pin has landed on the right one, but time will tell. It looks a competitive race.

 

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Jumps Angles

K Lee Chasers (12/1<) (#2)

4.30 Carl- Alfie Spinner UP

 

Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live Test

3.20 Carl- Dick Darsie (12/1<) (#2) UP

4.30 Carl – Blakemount (12/1<) (#2) WON 10/1>13/2

4.30 Carl- Alfie Spinner (12/1<) (#9) UP

 

Handicap hurdle/chase portfolio– Live Test

3.10 Lud – Uhlan Bute- UP

 

**

Free Trainer Systems Reports/Re-Cap on the ‘core’ free jumps angles above: CLICK HERE>>>

**

That will be all for today.

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

22 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • Chase The Spud is a horse I have been waiting for on heavy ground,might just have that at carlisle 4.30 got 10/1 but still 9/1 BV

    gearoid180468 07/02/17 7:05 PM Reply


    • PB fan club has good chance for nice win,will be around 12/1
      Great race after boring last days

      Pab 07/02/17 9:49 PM Reply


    • Looked solid at that price to me Gerry. Agree just looks like a heavy ground slogger on evidence to date and will just keep going, hopefully when the rest have had enough here! better race/mixing it with pace/better horses/lack of heavy,prob did for him LTO but still ran well for most of way, his run at Haydock decent. Fingers crossed a run for our money. Be disappointing if he isn’t in contention turning in.

      Josh 08/02/17 10:32 AM Reply


  • The 16:30 at Carlisle looks like a cracking race however I think you can make a case against a number of these particularly given the ground is verging on heavy tomorrow. Alfie Spinner has never won off a mark this high even at his peak and it will be some training performance to get him to win again. Rigadin de Beauchene doesnt like carrying more than 10st11lbs and really needs a left handed flat or slightly undulating track. Join The Clan is another who is 0/12 on undulating or very undulating tracks. Blakemount is probably well treated but there is a big doubt whether he will like this ground or stay the trip. Hester Flemen may be doing cartwheels at home (not sure why else its getting backed) but he has had 2 runs in 750 days so could easily bounce and has only won a poor beginners chase over 3m1f on soft. Bigirononhiship is another one with questions over the trip and ground. Plus he refused to race LTO, has just got form on left handed flat on slightly undulating tracks not to mention he will need to be a very tough 6 year old to cope with tomorrow’s test. Swing Hard is simply not good enough. That leaves me with Chase The Spud, Cyclop and Russe Blanc. I wouldn’t be surprised if either of the first two win however I personally like a horse at Carlisle with past form at the track so Russe Blanc is the one for me. This is the easiest race he has contested in over year and also the first time he has raced in a smaller field for quite some time. He is 321 in handicaps at the track. He is now only 2lbs higher than his Betfred Classic Chase. We know that Kerry Lee is in excellent form at the moment. He is 2/7, 5p in class 3 chase handicaps worth less than £10k and 2/9, 6p going right handed. We know he stays all day and will take to the conditions like a pig in mud. Brian Hughes takes the ride which I don’t think is a negative even if I suspect Moore had the choice. He is 5/16, 9p +18 in handicap chases here over the past 12 months so he rides the track very well. A lot of these like to get on with it so hopefully Hughes can keep him just off the pace and watch them fall away.

    I also want a small win bet on Silvanus in the 16:05 at Chelmsford. The favourite could be hard to beat however he is a hold up horse which isn’t ideal at Chelmsford. The last time he was at Chelmsford over course and distance he flew out of the gates and made all to win. That was from stall 11 and he starts off in stall 3 so getting to the front should be easier. He is racing in the same class and off only 2lbs higher. What really caught my eye though was the fact that Paul Hanagan makes the trip to Chelmsford for just this one ride. Its actually his first run for the trainer on the all weather for over 7 years. He has always gotten well with the horse and is 4/19, 10p on the horse. He is 4/10 since returning here so clearly in good form. Hopefully he can lead from pillar to post. No idea what the plans are with regards to horse’s retirement but it would be a very fitting way for the old boy to bow out victory with his favourite rider on board.

    nickmazur 07/02/17 9:34 PM Reply


    • I’m sticking with Alfie Spinner but for the hell of it will have a reverse forecast on both the Kerry Lee runners to emulate her 1-2 last week with Goodtoknow and Mountainous. Alfie Spinner has shown he can be competitive from this mark, albeit he is now 12 and is 2 from 2 since he joined Kerry Lee so may well be able to continue to improve. Added to that the Pipe horse who was 2nd to him at Wincanton has won subsequently then I think the 7lb rise since his last run is more than fair. Fingers crossed for that forecast!!

      JV 07/02/17 9:44 PM Reply


    • Will take that. Needed another half a furlong to reel the winner in. Unsurprisingly Hester Flemen was the first one beaten. I’d like to see him go for the Midlands National next given he is more likely to get his ground and I am not sure he is good enough for the Irish National. Plus he has a good Uttoxeter record.

      Nick Mazur 08/02/17 4:47 PM Reply


      • Yep great run from him. Bar for being nearly taken out down the back he may have got up there. Looks like Lee has a plan and that was some return to form. Would be interested in him NTO. That was a decent race. Less said about Chase the better. I couldn’t have that winner on paper, but was lightly raced in handicaps and taking on Smith/Cook in handicap chases can spell danger!

        Josh 08/02/17 4:51 PM Reply


        • No me neither. Drifted all day as well until just before the off so can assume that was on-course stable money.

          Nick Mazur 08/02/17 4:56 PM Reply


  • 4.30 Carlisle
    SWING HARD is 4W, 8P from 20
    Never had 10 stone on his back and Derek Fox before
    365, Bet Victor 25/1

    Clavis 07/02/17 9:58 PM Reply


  • hi josh

    was wondering if ALFIE SPINNER is a bet? checking the stats you sent regarding 9 trainers micro systems, if a kerry lee horse says horse run 90 days = not 1 -3. ALFIE SPINNER has run once in last 90 days, so not qualify? LTO = 20 days, before that was march 2016. or does it qualify on something else?

    pendrem 08/02/17 7:13 AM Reply


  • hi josh

    further to above, have now turned the page! ALFIE SPINNER is a bet as is irish bred !

    pendrem 08/02/17 7:47 AM Reply


    • Hi Malcolm, yep he is … he has been posted above under micro systems since last night?! 🙂 ( K Lee Chasers #2) Josh

      Josh 08/02/17 8:33 AM Reply


  • My rpr ratings method gives Landmeafortune a great chance of following up his win the last day. To me he has 8lb ish in hand and wouldn’t have blown too many candles out after that race. If the same, new, tactics are used again I expect Henry Brooke to get him out into a good rhythm in the lead and not see another rival. He relishes heavy and is improved for the 3miles. At around 4/1 he makes a lot of appeal. G/L to all and may all come back safe human and equine.

    Matthew Roberts 08/02/17 10:36 AM Reply


  • Venita Williams and Liam Tredwell

    3.10 Ludlow Uhlan Bute

    colin leafe 08/02/17 11:58 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh / All

    No sire selections today and after another 2 blowouts yesterday I think its just as well, I will persevere with them until the end of the month but at present they are not performing as I hoped / expected and it will require a huge turnaround for this to change…..On a more positive note my individual selections at Newcastle (based on more than 1 factor hmm that probably is the answer) ran well with 2 winners a 2nd and a WD horse at the gates from 4 selections, On that note I’ve gone through the Chelmsford card and hopefully these will provide something similar today. One thing to note here is the track, It can be massively biased to front runners and for the most part has been, but alternatively on some meets you can come from the rear and if that happens it usually is consistent for the rest of the card so we will have to see how the 1st race fares to gauge a judgment on that…………..

    2.00 Afkar 6.0 most books

    Well on first glance this one looks un-appetising with 31 AW runs and only 2 wins but does have 15 places, What I like about this fellow is his speed figs which are way in excess of the others over trip and going and that may well be because he has only won over 7F twice on AW and once on turf and today is 1M. But to offset that he loves to lead and has ran many a good race from the front over 1M usually collared inside the last 1/2F, He has his first try over 1M here and if the speed is front biased again then he has every chance of seeing it out. He also drops into a class 7 for the first time and is in the more than capable hands of young apprentice Lewis Edmunds taking off 5lb. His 2 AW wins have come off 58 & 61 and gets in here off 52…..Here’s hoping for an all the way win.

    2.30 Miami Sunset 10.0 best odds

    A first time out starter for the wily Charlie Mcbride, If we look at P J Mcbride in all 1M maiden auction races he is 6 runs, 3 wins, 3 places and he certainly knows how to get 1 ready first time out, The filly is a daughter of Archipenko with a C & D record of 9 runs, 2 wins, 4 places, Shame there is only 7 runners but may wait until nearer the off to see if there is any value in playing on the exchange.

    3.00 Bracken Brae 2.82 best odds

    No value here but does look the likely winner has a course record from 1M 5 1/2F to 2M of 3 x wins, 4 x 2nds and a 3rd so really enjoys it around here, Was interested in the topweight for Pipe around 25/1 but on closer inspection his best trips seem to be shorter and no real shows over this kind of trip on the flat and the trainer maybe lining up another race over hurdles for him, Pinwood also runs here which done some of us a favour winning as big as 44.0 last time out. Again though this distance worries me both on the sire and dam side no wins to show over this far and that goes for the dam’s sire too so I would have to leave at 6.0. Keep coming back to the Fav here.

    3.30 Volunteer Point 13.0 best odds

    On first glance the Fav Mise en Rose looked the one to be with being out of War front which as we know excels at Dundalk over the distance and with similar conditions here and an early 1 run 1 win for the sire here all looks positive but I’m not sure that her mark of 105 is correct on the AW. Has won over 1M here off 84 and a solid 3rd off 92 before embarking on a turf campaign improving steadily up to 106. She then had 1 further run off 106 at Lingfield on the AW and finished 9th of 10 and has only been dropped the 1lb. I think 2.5 is too short and want to look elsewhere, The selection however has won off 98 over C & D and has a course record of 2,1,1 & 3 along with the top speed figs over distance and going and at the odds is a good alternative.

    4.05 Dynamo Walt 6.5 best odds

    A competitive class 4 handicap where most have a case but I have landed on this chap, If we look at classes 2,3 & 4 he has a 19 run, 4 wins, 9 place record and in todays class 4 he is 7 runs, 3 wins, 5 places along with the trainer Derek Shaw in class 4 handicaps here is 20, 7, 10, The selection also tops the speed figs on surface and trip, Usually takes a grip and sits just off the pace I would like to see him take a lead off Oriental Relation on his inner and pounce down the home straight.

    4.40 Karam Albarri 13.0

    This geezer has a 1 win, 1 2nd and 3 x 3rds on the track and was once rated 109 now off 72 has won on polytrack off 89 and has the top speed fig over the distance and 2nd top rated on the going (top rated is Icebuster but all at shorter trips) his last win was on the 04/01 at Lingfield over 1M 4F in a class 6 before a tailed off last at Southwell wher he did not enjoy the kickback, George Baker keeps the ride for this class 5 C & D winner and at the odds thought was worth an EW play however I would note how the track is riding as he is a hold up horse.

    5.10 Wink Oliver 10.0 best odds

    With this bloke I think its important to see how the track is riding if you can come from behind then I’ll play as he is a proper hold up horse and has finished in the ruck here 5 times when there has been a speed bias but his only other run here was a C & D win when you could come from the rear, His win was off 69 in a class 5 and now runs off 58 in a class 6, His last 4 runs have been positive and if the track bias is right for him today then 10.0 looks big

    Good Luck All with your selections I’m off now to Chase a Spud

    Cheers
    Steve

    Steve Wiseman 08/02/17 12:51 PM Reply


  • Josh, I think you read the Hester Flemen chance wrongly. I got 7/1, so some value but would have taken less because of its winning chance
    This is the horse’s first chance at a real stamina test (bred to stay forever) on heavy (see bumper win) going.
    LTO on a speed track, in higher grade, could only have been a prep for this.
    Having said that I backed your choice as well, because, I respect the case you made.

    chrisrees 08/02/17 2:41 PM Reply


    • Hi Chris, I will no doubt have read one of them wrongly! And it may well be her. She is unexposed, ‘could be anything’ and will probably relish the test. At prices this morning I was happy to take on, based on the lack of experience for a test like this, and what I thought was a poor run the last day- even though a hot enough race she wasn’t unfancied, 6/1. She is the exciting one in the line up for sure, and he had one with a similar profile hack up at bangor a few weeks back. Won’t be a shock to me, but this morning, that price looked ok, without being generous, Chase the Spud was the over priced one to my somewhat rusty eye!
      GL.

      Josh 08/02/17 2:52 PM Reply


  • Carlise belongs to Suzie i ve been reading yesterday about that horse,she has wrote over 3miles is his distance but perfect going is good to soft
    At i backed RBew looks like RB is coming back

    Pab 08/02/17 4:45 PM Reply


    • Yep just clung on there- was unexposed in handicaps, an open race, never a total shock but he was 0/5,1p beyond 2m4f over fences,and that combined with fact his best form to date had been on a sounder surface was enough to put me off. One of those. Still doesn’t excuse poor run of my one, no idea what went wrong there. Maybe simply he is too slow/not good enough to keep up.

      Josh 08/02/17 4:49 PM Reply


      • I know what you mean. Thought I picked wrong with the way the market had him. It could be he just doesn’t like Carlisle given two poor runs. Also the jockeys were saying the ground was just soft and not any worse so maybe not slow enough. The other minor thing is he doesn’t seem to be able to carry the weight well although he has placed with a similar weight on. Could be a combination of all the above.

        Nick Mazur 08/02/17 4:54 PM Reply


      • Suzie has som method of trainig,for example Hainan last race was 2.4ml,his distance is over 3 m,he was placed,I remember Palm Gray first run of season was 2.7 ml came second,next run won at his distance 2.4ml

        Pab 08/02/17 7:07 PM Reply


        • yep, much like Russell, I should probably never doubt a smith chaser over a trip until properly proven he can’t. Seems to train stamina into them and in fairness on breeding he should get it, and was a double figure price, unexposed enough in handicap chases, and first real time this year yard has been in form! All so easy after the event, combined with all the stats pointers also.

          Josh 08/02/17 7:14 PM Reply


Post A Reply