TTP Jumps Notes: 06/02/17 (complete)

1.The Ratings Pointers

2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

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1.The Ratings Pointers

 

HorseRaceBase

Top Rated

none.

Top 3

2.00 Sedge – Onwiththeparty UP 9/2

 

Geegeez Speed

Top Rated

none.

Top 3

2.00 Sedge – Onwiththeparty UP 9/2

3.35 Sedg – Notnowsam

 

2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

SEDGEFIELD

2.00 –

Onwiththeparty (all hncps) 9/2- UP 9/2

Eager To Know (micro class + hncp h debut) 20/1 UP 25/1, 46.00 BFSP

Agent Louise (micro distance) 12/1

2.35

Strait Run (micro class + age) 20/1, 16/1 (after R4) > 2nd 9/1 ISP, 14.00 BFSP (40k done at 1.01,heartbreaking!)

The Pierre Lark (micro runs this season)

3.35

Notnowsam (hncp c + micro age) 28/1

Verko (hncp c) 12/1

Wolf Sword (micro going IF HEAVY) (Soft,good to soft places) H1, G3

4.05

Polit Bureau (micro class) 66/1

Knocknamona (micro class + age) 16/1

4.35

Roxyfet (hncp c + micro class) 8/1

 

3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

Well, where to start… (provided the meeting goes ahead.., 9.30 am inspection..)

I will actually start with a word on Roxyfet who is not a RP horse,wasn’t 10/1 this morning and looks unlikely to go off 11.00 or bigger on the machine, but is now 7/1 generally. I have had a go at 7s- simply because of the massive drop in class and that he is now 5lb below his last winning mark. These are much calmer waters than he has been racing in and given his course form/suitability for conditions, you wouldn’t be shocked were he to revive. Of course he may just be out of form but there was enough there at that price for me personally.

A few in here for Hammond and a couple of general points… he is 7/420,60p with handicap hurdlers going off 14/1 or bigger ISP. 2/220,21p when 22/1 or bigger ISP. So, he does have big priced winners every now and then, but they are hard to find! Maybe one of his today will.

With handicap chasers, those going off 22/1 or bigger are 0/128,5p, possibly relevant for Notnowsam who is 28s/33s.

Eager to Know… well he is unexposed and makes handicap hurdle debut, trainer only 1/36,7p with such types, but has had one winner at least. He hasn’t shown much but does take another step up in trip. In general we are dealing with awful racing here so you never know. The market may guide but he has an interesting enough profile,albeit he could just be useless.

Agent Louise- well she has to be of some interest because she likes conditions and her best runs it seems have come here in soft/testing ground. She pulled up lame the last day so that can be excuses and provided she is over that, could out-run these odds. Looks one of the more interesting outsiders to my eyes.

Strait Run- well his best run of recent times was in march, at this track over 17f, in soft. He hasn’t run in soft since and in truth he hasn’t done much since. He has had a break and the visor gets fitted today, which is interesting enough- doing something different anyway. Possibly there was a problem LTO. Hammond is only 2/42,10p with handicap hurdlers returning 60+ days off, but I suppose the fact a 1/4 have placed is some mild encouragement and at the prices may not be wise to be put off with that. It could be he will need this but I wouldn’t fall of my seat were he to run a better race here.

Notnowsam- the market may guide here for one whose stamina is unproven, and there are questions over the going. But, headgear returns and Henry Brooke is up. Maybe that will be another for the ‘henry brooke, try and make all angle’ (he is very good from the front and recently I have noticed him making all on previously held up types,to great effect. Anyway,he is very good from the front generally,esp on chasers) but if he goes off 22/1+ Hammond’s stats suggest he may be up against it. But, trying to second guess these 10/1+ shots may not be wise over time. He is a ratings pointer horse so I will have something on, just in case!

Verko arguably looks more interesting, 2/4,3p at the track chasing. And he was within 20L of the winner LTO which is much closer than he has been getting. That track form just makes him of some interest to my eyes. Although he does look out of sorts, we are relying on a return to this venue sparking him up. But all conditions look fine.

Politbureau at 66s looks up against it and I am struggling to find a ‘way in’ for why he may improve on recent runs. He isn’t do much different really although he does take a drop in class. It is hard to make a case on recent form, but you don’t want to be missing 66/1 shots do you, and the odd one will go in over time. Well we’ve had one 50/1 shot before Xmas, although arguably more of a case could be made for him. Not one to go mad on I don’t think but I would be terrified of leaving him as he may drop in at a price one day. In this race they are both taking on a short price fav who if he repeats his run 3 days ago probably hacks up again anyway.

Knocknamona in the same race is 0/6,0p over hurdles, so unexposed enough and while having shown little so far, may well do some day. He isn’t really doing anything different from recent runs and I am struggling to see why he may suddenly bounce into form, although ran OK LTO. If you take out the fav it feels a weak enough/open race.

So, they are some subjective views. It will no doubt be prudent in time to just go with the stats and those 10/1+ and I have probably added little value above so ignore as you see fit!

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

RESULTS: I will get updated spreadsheets for Ratings Pointers and All Qualifiers tomorrow and will do so weekly, with any analysis where necessary.

Some general thoughts moving forwards

  • It is clear in recent days that, following a proper approach to the recording of results, I have not been in a position to say ‘the best way to use the stats is to do X’. I thought with the RPs I was, but that thinking has clearly shifted a tad. At times this club has probably felt a bit experimental, and arguably still does. I suspect that is why many left, so if you have stuck around, hopefully you can see the promise and are not too disgruntled at the lack of confidently advised strategy. 
  • The solid foundation is that backing all stats qualifiers in section 2 has been profitable since the beginning of October. But, given the number of qualifiers I was desperate to find ways to both reduce the number of bets and improve profitability,and if possible the win % SRs etc. In part I am learning as I go along with this, which is a sentence that may make some of you spit out your morning coffee. That thinking is part of the reason for a free trial period and monthly subs, so that you can easily jump ship if it isn’t for you. (and in the context that as I write the two cores of backing all qualifiers, and RPs, are in decent enough profits since they were introduced) 
  • This is the first season I have introduced the Members Club with the TTP stats at it’s core and clearly I have yet to define an advised, settled, approach. 
  • The evidence from the new spreadsheets in 2017 to date has thrown things up in the air a bit. They do clearly indicate that backing those 10/1+ shots looks the best way forward, profit wise. There is clearly some caution as that is only one month in, but the stats have consistently found decent priced winners since the start of the season, and the performance of backing all stats,all odds, gives me confidence moving forwards. The stats pack works, it just about finding the best approach to getting the most out of them. 
  • Come the end of the jumps season in April we will have a much clearer picture on what the best approach is and come the start of next jumps season I will be able to say with confidence that the best way forward is to do X. I am aware that is far from ideal but at least either backing all qualifiers, or just Ratings Pointers, has been profitable. Although of course timing is everything and depending on when you gave this a go, results may differ considerably and some may not yet be in profit/have lost. 
  • Hopefully when the stats make +124 to BFSP backing them all, and +152 points, (come end Jan) backing all those 10/1+, that gives you reason to be optimistic about finding a profitable way forward in the weeks ahead. 
  • Based on the evidence so far, in that limited time, the current thinking has to be to go with all 10/1+ shots. I will analyse the Ratings Pointers data as that may be the place that is the best guide for shorter priced horses also moving forwards. And, those RP horses that were 10/1+ were 5/31,+50 points in the month- so it looks like there may be options if you want even fewer bets per day etc. 

 

Right, that’s that. I am conscious of the need to offer some more settled, cast iron, advice on strategy,(for my own punting benefit also,I have yet to get the best out of my own stats) and that a few members who joined mid Jan are in loss at the moment, in part down to my advice to stick with the ratings pointers,which is what I have been doing up until the new evidence presented itself. Fingers crossed the results give you optimism moving forward that we will settle on an approach that is very profitable over time and any patience will be rewarded. But, some caution is advised. There is always time to build up stakes and betting banks. I am rather excited for the future, given past results, and let’s hope it continues. 

As always, comments, critique, thoughts etc are welcome.

Josh

 

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A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

11 Comments

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  • Sorry if this has already been covered but someone posted a message saying they couldn’t figure out how to place a bet at BSP with minimum accepted odds on the app. I’m on iOS and if you select the BSP option at the top of the card then click on SP next to the runner you want you can then increase the odds in the grey box. I haven’t had chance to try it yet but it looks like it should do the trick.

    Jamie 05/02/17 8:29 PM Reply


  • Not sure that works on the Android app – you can set a figure in the ‘SP’ box by holding down the + button, but unlike on the website there’s nothing anywhere that confirms that this is the minimum odds you want to take, even after placing the bet. Probably safer to use the website if possible.

    Andy M 06/02/17 8:00 AM Reply


  • Good morning Josh and all

    I personally like the fact that it feels experimental, with the work you put in Josh and others who put their 2p in I’ve really enjoyed it and got me thinking a lot about I do my other betting, which is a good thing as we never stop learning. As you said the future looks good with the results so far, in this game as you know it’s hard for you to get all people thinking on the same page and some will leave. With how this as been set up I know who ever sticks around will be (should be) on the same page as you so will have even more confidence when putting their bets on.

    Right hope that made sense 🙂

    GL for today all 🙂

    Gavin 06/02/17 10:55 AM Reply


    • Cheers Gavin… yep I should emphasise I have no problem with people leaving,that is part of the reason for a free trial, this approach won’t be for everyone, in the same way tipping sites etc are not. There is something out there for all pointers, from just using tools, through to trainer based stats, more traditional ‘tipping/advice’ etc.
      But, I don’t want people to have a bad experience, and that responsibility rests on my shoulders. The foundations are in place,and they are very solid. Just landing on a settled approach, or settled menu of options,that can be advised with confidence. It cant be experimental for ever. We will get there.
      Yep good luck with any bets today. Josh

      Josh 06/02/17 11:08 AM Reply


  • Wow, Strait Run steamed from 20/1 into 5/1, so much for backing @BSP 🙁

    John 06/02/17 1:17 PM Reply


    • That will happen with the odd one John, there is a 20p R4 in there, so 16s say! Hammonds can do that… on the flip side, to make you feel better… his NHF winner the other week went off 25/1 ISP, it was 50.00 BFSP. Russells 25/1 winner went off 36.00 on the machine.
      There will be ones like that sadly. Before today, backing all horses in section 2 to early odds, +59 points, for the year, to BFSP, +97.
      Hammond has had one go in that was 25s night before, 7.00 BFSP. Gardner had a 20/1 > 13.00 BFSP. It will happen from time to time, one of those things sadly.
      Let’s hope one of his biggies, unbacked, may drop in! And it won’t mean anything if he PUs 🙂

      Josh 06/02/17 1:23 PM Reply


      • Even worse, it went as low as 1.03 or maybe even 1.02 then lost. I hadn’t cashed out either

        Jamie 06/02/17 2:51 PM Reply


        • Those last 100 yards were so painful, from counting your money to that! And that is on the back of the Whillans horse doing similar at last meeting, 20s> backed, bolted for stable and UR when miles clear. I am not liking that Sedgefield run in at the moment!! Must have done something to annoy those racing gods. Lack of run just told in final strides I think. Whether jockey could have just kept hold of him for longer,prob would have won. Aggressive enough final furlong or so. Never mind.

          Josh 06/02/17 2:53 PM Reply


  • Couple of extra notes on some of the Hammond runners…

    Eager To Know Stamina test is expected to suit. Will get it today beyond question. Whether today will be too early of course is a question.

    Verko was expected to run well last time and nothing seen reported as an excuse on why the poor run.

    Knocknamona Been watching this and on the fence so to speak. 2m4 should suit a Trans Island, but has had the distance for a few now. They’ve always thought it would be best over fences. I still think it can collect one over hurdles and it surely won’t have too many better opportunities than this class 5. Ran OK last time to run 4th but it’s possible the first 3 home in that are at the higher end of Class 5 class. Probably worth a small interest – and sits OK with the stats (thx Josh) – if it sticks around the 20s mark.

    Stephen Cross 06/02/17 1:28 PM Reply


  • Knocknamona Well considering this looked like a potential Pulled Up after 3 hurdles and beaten 100 lengths 3/4 out, Knockie ran on well as some others tired and gave the impression that a slightly slower pace of a 3 mile race could suit. Only problem is there might have been some other eyes noting how he finished from what was at one point a hopelessly hammered position.

    They may try and do a Major Ridge with this one next season.

    Stephen Cross 06/02/17 4:15 PM Reply


  • One to remember from the day…

    On the face of it there was a hugely disappointing run from Murray Mount in the race that Strait Run appeared to give away, even allowing for the possibility that he resented the blinkers.

    The yard expected MM to go well, the market did too…..but Trans Island runners don’t win over 2 miles! (or very rarely). You can see why lots thought he would – on paper it was a poor race and could have ended up a semi-walkover.

    So from a punting perspective, that run could do us a lot of good at some point in the future. Don’t expect we’ll ever see any really fancy prices, but in a low grade with enough reasonable opposition (and 2 and a half miles or thereabouts) there’s likely to be an opportunity one day at good enough odds to make it worthwhile.

    Stephen Cross 06/02/17 8:55 PM Reply


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