TTP Jumps Notes: SAT 04/02/17 (complete)

1.The Ratings Pointers

2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

4.Any general messages/updates etc

**

1.The Ratings Pointers

HorseRaceBase

Top Rated

3.00 Sand – Mr Mix

Top 3

4.25 Weth- Triangulate (only 3 with ratings)

 

Geegeez Speed

Top Rated

3.00 Sand – Rolling Dylan

3.35 Sand – Irish Saint

 

Top 3

1.40 Weth- Hainan

 

2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

MUSS

12.55

Top Cat D J (hncp c) 16/1

Chain of Beacons (micro going IF SOFT) H1, G3 9/4 (not soft) 

2.45 Rocklim (hncp h) 11/1

3.15 – Artisto Du Plessis 20/1

4.20 – Next Edition (all hncps) 14  9/1

 

SANDOWN

3.00

Rolling Dylan (hncp h) 14 11/2

Mr Mix (micro runs this season) 10/1

3.35 – Irish Saint (micro horse runs this season) 6/1

 

WETHERBY

1.40 – Hainan (micro age) 11/2

3.20 – Westendorf (hncp h) 5/1

4.25

Charin’Cross (NHF) 25/1

Triangulate (NHF) 100/1

Bertie Blake (NHF) 10/1

 

3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

Well a slight change of approach may be needed in this bit with our new information, and I am not sure what that approach should be. Before I would try and talk myself into bigger priced horses, and try and make a case for them. Now it is very much a case of trust the stats over time, and try not to talk myself out of backing one of the biggies!

They are due a winner now, having hit another losing run of 10 or so I think, and there are a few nice priced horses today. In truth I don’t think you would fall off your seat if any of them went close…

At Muss…

Top Cat DJ- well he is up against it but at least ran ok LTO so is in some kind of form. Jockey takes off 3 which helps a tad with being out the handicap and it isn’t the deepest of races. He is still around at 20s in places and with him I have taken the bookie odds as he seems to being clipped in. If the worst of my deliberations is when to take a price of BFSP, I can live with that.

Likewise i have taken 10s on Rocklim, he needs to find something but he won this race last year and likes the track, 1/9,3p over hurdles. He seems a bit of a thinker but the trainer is out of form also- he will snap into good form at some point though, you would hope. Aristo Du Plessis looks like a BFSP job to my eyes- he gets first time blinkers and likes to race prominently. Again the trainer hasn’t been in the best form. He has the ability and his mark is plummeting. IF the headgear works,he could out-run those odds.

Next Edition looks the weakest of the 10/1+ shots to my eyes but the cheekpieces return and he takes a drop in trip. This is only his 8th hurdle start also,and the trainer is in form. Again as I write he looks steady enough/drifting,so may be one for the machine if you play.

Sandown… Mr Mix is a ratings pointer, is unexposed,in forma and takes a step up in trip. He looks weak in the market also.

To Wetherby… Hainan looks like he is weak and may be one for setting a price on BFSP, to be backed if 11.00 or bigger. Or in any case he is a decent priced ratings pointer horse,regardless of if he hits 10s+.  He is in form and so are connections. He is a ratings pointer horse anyway, and may try and make all again. Hard to dismiss him I think.

Then the bumper… well it will be happy days if any of those three win! And Hammond has form at least for us. Just to say his that go off 50/1+ ISP, are now 0/25,1p, but has had winners up to that price. Kirby… if his drifts that could be a negative, his bumper runners going off 22/1 or bigger are 0/36,1 place, so I will keep an eye on that one I think.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

RESULTS

Quite Important…

New Spreadsheet with All Qualifiers, up to 2/2/17, can be found HERE>>>

To note:

  • This records every single horse that qualifies against the stats with the code against the stats pack (split into handicaps, NHF and micros),whether they were also a ratings pointer horse, then whether they won/placed,and with details on early/BOG odds, ISP and BFSP.
  • Having looked through these results they appear to suggest that a change in strategy may be worth considering. It revolves simply around ignoring the shorter priced horses and backing everything that is around 10/1 or bigger on the morning of racing or 10/1+ BFSP.
  • Since the start of the year horses that were 10/1 or bigger in the morning, or went off 10/1+ BFSP, to Betfair Starting Price, are… 123 bets / 16 wins / 13% win SR / +160 points  (horses just backed once) (minus 5% commission, so 152 points) 
  • Backing all selections to BFSP during the last month would have won you +123 points or so from around 240 odd bets, averaging 7 or so bets a day.
  • Sadly for my own bank balance I focused on the Ratings Pointers, as advised,which before the last 3 weeks of Jan were far outperforming just backing everything.
  • Importantly… all ratings pointers horses , just backed once, (whatever rating they qual against) 10/1 or bigger (either early odds/BOG or BFSP) are 5/31, +50 points. 
  • Clearly those results are there for you to interrogate as you see fit. There may be the odd error, and in my adding up, but nothing too glaring hopefully.
  • I am now recording early odds as a matter of course as you will see, taking a price generally available in the morning around 8/9am. This will give us more data moving forwards. Backing all those at 10/1+ has led to losing runs of: 9, 30,11,8,12,9 since 1st Jan. At those odds and a 13% SR, such losing runs will be common.
  • There will be horses in that spreadsheet whose early odds were 10/1+ but that were backed in below that to ISP/BFSP that lost, maybe the odd one won. I have not been recording early odds since the start of the year (I am now) so it is what it is. That profit figure may be a bit less, but I can’t think by much. 
  • It would be wrong to ignore those results and not consider a possible change to strategy. Focusing on horses at a double figure price may well be the way to go based on these results, both in the ratings pointers and section 2. Those winners are the ones that make the real difference to the profits, which given we have no odds caps isn’t a shock I suppose.
  • Only two of those winners have been punted in from 25/1 early > 7 BFSP and 20/1 early, 12 BFSP. The three monster price horses 30/1+, their BFSP has been 47 points or so above the biggest available with BOG bookies. So, over time, the big priced ones at BFSP will make up for any well backed ones,albeit it can be clear when one is being backed.
  • Clearly there is the option to back at BFSP and you bet only be placed if the BFSP is a minium price I believe (although I have never really done that) say 11.00, while keeping an eye on whether there are any significant market moves/taking a view the evening before, early morning also.
  • Any thoughts on strategy based on those results is welcome. The profit levels are exciting moving forwards and clearly in time we will have a clearer idea. I need to have a think also.

 

 

On reflection I should have been recording results like that since the start of October so apologies for not doing so. Had I done that maybe in the last month I would have won around £1500 to £10 bets at BFSP! I didn’t. Still, we will take the positives. These stats have a habit of finding value winners, and I just need to start backing more of them! 

 

5. Hunter Chase – Live Test 

Trainers (16/1<)

3.45 Muss – Railway Dillon

Jockeys (33/1 <)

3.55 Weth

Nowurhurlin

**

That will be all for today. Good luck with any bets.

Josh

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

16 Comments

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  • SAT Stats/Trends
    I had a look at the 3.35 Sandown. As it happens there are not many useful stats and with only 8 runners they may be a bit pointless anyway, and worth just looking at without them.
    But, a few that caught the eye…

    Last 10 renewals
    10/108,30 places

    Horse Age

    • 8/10 aged 7-9
    o 6yo: 0/9,2p
    o 10+ : 2/31,9p
     Both winners aged 13.

    Odds
    • 8/10, 9/1 or shorter SP
    o 2/48,10p bigger (2x 20/1 winners)

    ***
    OTHER STATS

    Miscellaneous 1

    Pos Wgts (ex Clm) –

    • Clear top weights: 0/9,0p

    ‘The ‘Running’ Characteristics’

    H-Run (Last Placing)
    • 9/10 places on at least one of last two startds
    o Did not: 1/39, 9p

    The ‘Winning’ Characteristics

    H-Win (Career)
    • 8/10 had 2-5 career wins
    o 6+ : 2/41,9p

    Trainers (of interest)
    • Wadham: 2/2
    • 1 win: Sherwood/O’Neill/V Williams/P Hobbs/P Bowen/P Nicholls/N Gifford
    • N Henderson: 0/4,0p

    Josh 03/02/17 2:15 PM Reply


  • Hainan one of Suzie stars

    Pab 03/02/17 4:59 PM Reply


  • hi josh
    very interesting TTP results, change of tactics for me now then, I will now start backing all 10+ at BFSP

    pendrem 03/02/17 6:15 PM Reply


    • Hi Malcolm.
      yep I think that may be the wisest course of action given those results. And they don’t include many a biggie from before start of Jan. And of course you can set that up in the morning and leave it, only betting BFSP when hits price X. So, that is an option.
      Then just a case of maybe taking bookies odds with the odd one if seeing money etc- many at that end just seem to stay static enough but odd one hammered in. Or split stakes- take prices vs BFSP etc. A few options but the info is there.
      If you can stomach the losing runs, I think that is wise. Then just whether we pick and chose shorter priced ones, using ratings maybe etc. food for thought.
      Certainly by next jumps season we will have a fuller picture!

      Josh 03/02/17 6:19 PM Reply


      • Just a wee note on using BSP – it isn’t possible to set minimum odds, nor is it possible to cancel your bet once it’s been placed.

        Neil 04/02/17 9:23 AM Reply


        • It is possible to set minimum odds with BSP, but it’s easy to miss – there’s a little tick box above the stake box – if you tick that first it then brings up the option to enter your minimum odds.

          Andy M 04/02/17 9:32 AM Reply


          • That’s on the Berfair website, by the way. Just had a look at the (Android) app and can’t see how to do it on that. But definitely possible on the full website.

            Andy M 04/02/17 9:43 AM Reply


            • Thanks for that Andy!

              Neil 04/02/17 10:01 AM Reply


  • One possible qualifier tomorrow for the long distance travellers;

    2:05 Muss. – Beeves (if 8/1 or less – currently around 20/1)

    LSP -3 pts.

    Chris R.

    broadsword 03/02/17 9:02 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh

    I joined just over a week ago and in fear of missing some of the action I have backed all selections using BF. In the first 4/5 days I was around 35 points up so a great start for the paid membership although for now I’m only playing for small stakes until I build the bank.

    What time do you normally find the best prices are available on BF as I’ve been looking late night/early morning and I’ve seen a real mixed bag to be honest. Some days not much liquidity before midnight so no big prices but other days the early morning prices are shorter than they were the night before.

    Jamie 03/02/17 9:04 PM Reply


    • Look market forecast at timeform,dont read verdict
      or read featured by them horse is no wining in 99 %

      Pab 03/02/17 11:47 PM Reply


  • HI Josh, Sound reasoning on the prices will look at 10.1+ first then 4.1 – 9.1 range. I also like to look at the price of horse when placed or won, you get a good idea most of the time when they are at a price worth backing or if the price is too big or short on past history. This and the class grade they can win in. Thanks again to everyone on here for the input. To Josh one happy Wolves fan.

    roybedford 04/02/17 5:41 AM Reply


  • One I like today is in 4:05 S Justification an ex A. O’Brien inmate. Has not had a lot of racing recently just 2 runs in the last 2 years with his last run a month ago. Gary Moore dose well with horse that need time to get over a problem and I cant see why it’s still in training if it can’t beat this lot off 114.
    Stepping up in trip will suit, he won a Cl2 Hcp 14f on the flat off 83 on soft before. A look at the Thurles md hdl form would say he is throw in. I looked closely at this one because the font 3 in the betting can be taken on. Bailey’s stable haven’t had a winner since 10th Dec, T. Lacey’s horses seem to be priced up short and has been harshly accessed for winning a poor race. Druids Folly I half like but don’t think his run behind Crievhill (3rd) was worth that much as both 2nd & 4th performed worse next time out! So have taken 8/1 Justification.

    Gary 04/02/17 8:40 AM Reply


    • Mixchevious gets the mud and a longer trip so open to abnormal progress, imo.

      chrisrees 04/02/17 8:54 AM Reply


  • over the last month iv’e tried a few different stacking methods and have come up with this :
    2 x starting banks of 200pts
    top rated 3pt w + 2 if tr in both +1 if top3 in other
    all others 1pt win or 1/2 pt ew if over 20-1
    before today i was +133pts on TTP and +32pts on picks from free page.
    looking very interesting keep up the good work Josh

    martin whittle 04/02/17 8:53 AM Reply


  • With any system that picks as many double figure winners as single figure ones I usually find that discarding the lower priced ones does no harm. Sound idea, Josh.

    ben speed 04/02/17 2:40 PM Reply


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