FREE DAILY POST: 02/02/17 (complete)

 

TIPS

3.55 Towc –

Try It Sometime – 1 point win – 10/1 > 3/1 fav, 2nd 

Ah damn. An fine run, he was up there and on known form i thought he may out-plod the winner, who wasn’t a surprise given how their form tied in, 3rd run of the season etc. Try It Sometime looked more over-priced  and sadly was out-stayed, I thought that may be the other way round. On we go. 
Well the 12s didn’t last long for this one but 17/2 or bigger seems ok and I have decided to get off the fence with him. He looks interesting and a real mud lover. I had a loot at his Uttoxeter win when he was the only finisher in desperate conditions, but he just kept going. He also chased home Upbeat Cobler her and again stayed on up this punishing hill. In these conditions it isn’t impossible that he could be the last one plodding on. The jockey booking does catch the eye, as does the lack of pace- Bowen does like to be up there on chasers if he can be and if he can get him into a rhythm on the front end he could go well. He has shown glimmers of promise the last twice, his mark is dropping and he has a low weight. He could be about to strike and at this price I am happy to find out, even though it is a shocking level.

I think there is just enough to go on there in a race where they all have some questions to answer.

 

Of the rest…

Well nothing surprises you at this level and an in depth analysis of the rest is a bit pointless. Cheat The Cheater, if on a going day, could win this. They may try and race him more prominently as having run well at Ffos Las (finished ahead of the selection) he didn’t show up the last day. Trehan Cross is the unexposed one and could take this, but is short enough. Majical Man- I have a slight niggle as to his stamina, in this ground, at this track. I think there may be stouter stayers. The rest have the odd question also.

It is probably a race I should leave alone, and were Bowen not booked on this one I probably would do. But, given all of the above, I just found him of interest at his price. I hope they try and make all. In heavy in the past he has just kept plodding on. With his plummeting mark and low weight, that may be enough. There have been clear signs recently that he could go close soon, and with any luck it will be here. But he may tail off.

**

 

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Jumps Angles

Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live Test

4.25 Towcester – Present Time (12/1<) (#4) WON 4/1> 6/1

(these are 3/21,6p, +13 points since the live test started) 

 

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Feb Pointers…

I have pulled together some stats pointers for Feb for Members to use/ignore as they please. They look at trainer’s who have done well this month, over the last three years, in certain race types, at certain tracks, with certain jockeys, handicaps and none handicaps.

There are a couple of Willie Mullins snippets below for you to use as you see fit..

  • Willie Mullins/Maiden Hurdle: 20 bets / 11 w / 14 p / 55% sr/ +14 SP / AE 1.39
  • Willie Mullins/Clonmel: 18 bets / 9 w / 12 p / 50% sr / +31 SP / AE 1.8 (NON HANDICAPS)

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CHELTENHAM ANTE-POST BETS…

Don’t forget I have set up a page for you all to discuss any Ante-Post bets you are having at the Festival, now only 6 weeks away.

This post is more prominent on the home page but can be found in the Free Reports & Systems tab HERE>>>

There are some fascinating comments already, so do add your own…

 

***

That is all for today,

Josh

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

32 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • Always like backing trainers horses with a good “first time out in a handicap” record and managed to grab 8/1 on one from Henry Oliver today in the 13.30 – Yorgonahearmeroar.

    Have one tomorrow at Towcester from a decent trainer with positive stats in this approach. The horse is Pinnacle Peter in the 2.35 at Towcester for Tom Lacey. Trainer is 5/15 since 2014 with handicap hurdler debutants, with these stats improving to 4/9 in the past year for an LSP of 22.50.

    Horse steps up another half mile tomorrow and being out of Flemensfirth should cope with he forecast soft / heavy ground with a fair bit of stamina influence in the pedigree. Horse had a spin around Towcester over 2m5 last December in a novice hurdle hardly given a hard time by Tommie O Brien. 7lb claimer is replaced tomorrow by Robert Dunne who in my eyes is a very capable jockey and is 1/2,1 placed with trainer handicap hurdle debutants during the time above. Horse has opened up at 12/1 which looks big considering trainers nack with first time out handicappers and could show significant “improvement” tomorrow.

    Last run in a novice hurdle at Chepstow looked fairly strong in the contest of tomorrows race with the winner Constantine Bay winning the River Don at the weekend and the 2nd and 4th running creditably since.

    Also had to have a saver on Scooby for G McPherson which is a system bet saved in my HRB account for trainer handicap hurdlers for Dec-Feb.

    leon dixon 01/02/17 8:42 PM Reply


    • Great stuff Leon, yep given my access to geegeez reports I should make use of looking at handicap debutants, which I do from time to time but have been distracted with other things- it is certainly a great way in and highlights some decent priced winners over time. Backing Lacey’s 1st time up looks like it should pay over time, clearly knows what he is doing.
      You are always encouraged to highlight such bets! 🙂
      Yep Scooby is interested, I noted him LTO as that race was run at a crawl and he got shuffled back/out paced at a crucial point. Looks like he wants a test, although no idea how he will handle the ground.
      The Artful Cobbler looked interesting enough at a price also for TTP stats, 1st time cheekpieces, handles heavy and maybe wants a test like this- or is just out of sorts. We shall see how those three go!
      GL

      Josh 02/02/17 9:35 AM Reply


      • I haven’t really backed his if I am honest but have certainly noticed Lacey doing well in general this season (14/59, 21p +84 in the past 6 months) and not sure if the market has caught on to him yet.

        Nick Mazur 02/02/17 9:51 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh / All

    Just had time to review the days racing and was amazed how short Tynecastle Park had got too, I had to leave him at the odds and just as well as he was paceless today travelled ok at the start but once the pace lifted he was done, Its hard to know what to make of him well bred looks well and still very lightly raced so he may improve, I think the only time I would be interested now is if he ran over a trip at Southwell…..Of the Newcastle returning winners Taopix managed to win with a 2nd & 2 x 3rds and a 5th. On reflection I think I’ll just follow the horses that have had 2 wins or more at the track & surface otherwise it can be a bit messy crossing all 3 with 3 separate systems and multiple runners in the same races. So today there would have been 3 selections and a small overall profit of £14.70……On to tomorrow

    There is 1 main sire selection

    2.20 Southwell – Rightway 6.5 best odds betbright
    Cockney Rebel 5 runs, 3 wins, 3 places

    There has been 2 different winners from 2 horses that make up the above figs, The selection has his first try at Southwell and therefore has these conditions for the first time, He has won twice once at Sandown over a 1M & at Wolves over 1M 1/2F so will be interesting to see how he fares here over this longer trip.

    Staking £15.58 – 2% of £779.61

    Stat of the Day

    7.30 Chelmsford – Tetradracum 6.0 best odds Betfair Sportsbook

    David Simcock at the track is 4 runs, 3 wins, 3 places in all 1M 6F races here and the figs are with 4 different horses, In class 4 over C & D he is 1 run 1 win. As for the horse he is very lightly raced with 4 runs leading in the first 3 of them and winning his maiden in the 3rd race over 1M 4F at lingfield. His last race in May 2016 he was held up at Bath and finished last. Not seen since and has swapped yards from David Lanigan to Simcock, what’s interesting is that he is upped in trip straightaway for a yard that does well here over C & D and if going back to his front running tactics that would serve him well here.

    Good Luck all with any selections

    Cheers
    Steve

    Steve Wiseman 01/02/17 9:51 PM Reply


  • Paddy has 2 good chances tomorrow withMinella Gathering 2.45 and Socksy 3.20 Towecester and he has nearly a 40% strike rate over the smaller obstacles there,but I might hold onto my banjo winnings for another day.Some are Lucky looked all over the winner in that race,looks a bridle horse though,will keep an eye on him over the season if he is a decent price,might need to be produced at the last fence with a short run in

    gearoid180468 01/02/17 9:52 PM Reply


  • Nice easy winner today although I feel a bit hard done by with all 3 picks being backed into fav or 2nd fav and only getting minor profits today with Crosspark travelling as well as anything before unshipping Skelton but in fairness I was due a faller.

    Three for me tomorrow.

    We backed Luv U Whatever LTO and he ran a creditable race in 3rd. He got dropped 2lbs for that run and drops down into a class 4 for the first time in over 2 years in the 19:30 at Chelmsford. Chelmford should suit his front running style. He is now 11lbs lower than his win over 1m5.5f at the track in a class 2 13 months ago. On top of that he gets a jockey upgrade with Willie Carson on board who has been on of the hottest jockeys around-10/30, 13p +83 in the past 30 days including his only 2 runs during that time for the trainer resulting in a 1st and 3rd. With 8 runners looks like a great e/w bet at the price.

    I also want an e/w bet on Tornado in Milan in the 15:10 at Wincanton. The front 4 in the market are all question marks and have yet to win on heavy ground whereas ours is very much proven on it. Has been consistantlyr running well and hasnt been out of the top 4 in his 9 runs, finishing 1st or 2nd in all his runs in class 3s during that time (remaining runs in class 2s) and going 13121 on his last 5 runs going right handed. On his last hurdle run he chased home Neptune 3rd fav Messire Des Obeaux who has since won the Grade 1 Challow Hurdle. He is effectively 6 lbs lower here. Trainer had a winner and is going ok. My only slight concern would be the fact that the jockey doesnt have a great deal of experience but has at least has won for the trainer 3 starts ago.

    Finally I think it would be rude not to have a bet on Socksy in the 15:20 at Towcester. LTO she didnt stay but she ran well 2 starts ago and that race is working out fine with the 1st (listed race), 2nd, 5th and 8th winning since. She has decent enough form on heavy when trained over in Ireland. She also gets a first time tonguetie which should help. Brennan has won on his last 2 runs for O’Brien. They do particularly well here combining to go 6/11, 7p in non-handicap hurdles at the track in the past 5 years. Half the field is making their debuts and none of the big yards are represented so not sure about the quality of this field. With 8 runners we can pray there wont be any non-runners and go e/w.

    nickmazur 01/02/17 11:14 PM Reply


    • Wallop, well done. Super ride from the young lad. Heavy ground maestro comes to the fore. Super.

      Josh 02/02/17 3:16 PM Reply


    • Fantastic analysis Nick. I had a bet and then topped up with a tenner at 22’s in running. Many thanks
      Hugh

      Hugh Fowler 02/02/17 3:17 PM Reply


    • Fantastic call Nick…16/1. Thanks!
      I just got in and saw it from the last fence….

      Cheers.

      tonymc 02/02/17 3:42 PM Reply


      • Hats off Nick great tipping x 2 and not for the first time 16/1 + I got 11/2 on Socksy and a lovely 230 csf with Tornado and the TTP pick reversed. Thanks all

        Ian 02/02/17 3:51 PM Reply


        • Same for me Ian – a couple of quid on the forecast because it had been tipped elsewhere.

          Thanks a lot Nick!

          Neil 02/02/17 4:47 PM Reply


          • Crikey you chaps have had it right off with that forecast, top punting work, well done. Nice return even for a small bet.

            Josh 02/02/17 4:54 PM Reply


    • Great Nick, well amazing really. Your posts are always worth a read

      Terry 02/02/17 6:50 PM Reply


    • Great ride from jock going to name in my tracker

      Pab 02/02/17 7:56 PM Reply


  • I will go for Minella Gathering , Venetia Vic De Touzaine 365 days off races
    her second horse Bennys Mist ewif will be around 20/1,he is best class horse in that company if will be fit will win,i think will big gambling on him,worth to risk He was very close on G3 on heavy

    Pab 02/02/17 12:48 AM Reply


    • And Cheat The Cheater
      3:10 W Space Oddity It is not race for Tornado rather

      Pab 02/02/17 12:56 AM Reply


      • Fun bet is at 4:15 W hunter Tony Star 21/1

        Pab 02/02/17 2:35 AM Reply


  • Today 3:45 Win. I think Benny’s Mist has to be a play!
    Very simple this one. It’s been a while since had optimum conditions but today he can have no complaints. His record on Heavy is 7 runs, 6 wins and a PU. 2 of those wins over today’s course and distance. 10/1 is more than fair.

    Gary 02/02/17 10:01 AM Reply


    • Hmm, yes having just looked, at that price, I tend to agree. Gets the first time blinkers which do need to do the trick but they may. And, he hasn’t run on proper heavy for an age, he does relish the mud and yes 4/5 in handicap chases in heavy. I am sure Treadwell would have had the choice over this one or the other Venetia chaser. All conditions looks spot on and this is the easiest race he has competed in for a while, the drop in class significant. And of cours he has won/run well after Ps before. He could just now be regressive but at 10s, I think he must be worth some support. Good spot. GL.

      Josh 02/02/17 10:10 AM Reply


  • Ng101DT

    Peter nottingham 02/02/17 10:57 AM Reply


    • What does that mean Peter?? Or am I stupid (likely…)

      Josh 02/02/17 11:09 AM Reply


      • That is a Nottinghamshire post code.

        mojojojo 02/02/17 11:41 AM Reply


  • Venita Williams and Liam Tredwell

    3.45 Wincanton Bennys Mist

    colin leafe 02/02/17 11:18 AM Reply


  • Good morning,
    I only recently looked at this site after following the link in a recent email from Josh and first impressions are positive, I would like to share with you a stat as a lot here seem to base their betting on stats. Southwell 4.05 Alpha Tauri won last time out at Southwell from stall 12 in a 14 runner race over 1 mile, my records show of the 10 previous horses to do this 6 have gone on to win again(all of the last 5 going back to 2008) including 2 of 4 to return to Soutwell, on the negative side not many 11yo repeat a last time out win and the horse is 1 from 9 on the back of a last time out win, 5/2 is short based on the negatives but interesing based on the positives in a weak looking race, worth a look though.

    Regards heavypaul

    heavypaul 02/02/17 11:34 AM Reply


    • Hi heavypaul, thanks for posting. We like to make good impressions in these parts! I am mainly a trainer stats fanatic, while dabbling in trying to find some 3m+ handicap chase winners in the ‘tipping’ section – that is up and down but the jumps tips made 70 odd points last year, and we are about evens after Jan- I can have losing runs in the 20s-40s though, consistency not a strong point at the moment! 🙂

      But, there is always something of interest to read and plenty of shrewd readers who post their thoughts/tips/ideas, to great effect.

      Welcome aboard! And that is an interesting AW stats approach, you can keep those coming 🙂
      Good luck today,
      Josh

      Josh 02/02/17 1:12 PM Reply


  • I guess I have had worse 20 minute periods in my life. Long wait to the last one.

    Nick Mazur 02/02/17 3:29 PM Reply


    • Yep I think so haha. You get 7s on the O’Brien winner? Smashed in, I read Daily Punt Dave put him up this morning also. Tornado did that very well, as you suggested he was the only one who really handled that ground. Very consistent old boy and a pace angle. Bet you enjoyed jockey looking around for dangers approaching the last! Well done. Any idea how many points you are up from your RTP tips in recent weeks?
      Your form both a good advert for your racing brain, and geegeez gold! 🙂

      Josh 02/02/17 3:36 PM Reply


      • Yeah got 7s. Cant believe she went off at 11/8. I don’t like those sort of races but couldn’t understand why she was so big given most of the others were making debuts.

        Since December 12th I am 36.25 pts up before today as advised although if I am completely honest whilst I generally will tip most days to a few mates on FB I only post here when I have the energy left to do a write up (sometimes after a mentally draining 9 till 6 job and 2-3 hours of studying the nags I don’t) so probably I would say I would have put up 80-85% of my tips on here. Only obvious one I know I didn’t and felt badly about was Goal the first time around on 21/12. Also I will tip either 0.5pt win/0.75pt win/1pt win/0.5pt e/w/0.75pt e/w and don’t track every single horse so not sure how that translates to 1pt win stakes. I am debating what to do on the staking front since don’t always get it right like the 2 winners were 0.5pt e/w but the one still to run was 0.75pt e/w.

        Nick Mazur 02/02/17 4:02 PM Reply


  • Your tip and system selection both backed into joint favouritism, Josh

    As it’s sometimes said in the industry: “don’t let anyone tell you that you can’t eat value”

    Ali 02/02/17 3:30 PM Reply


    • oh I have little hope Ali, yep Cheat The Cheater at 6s for ratings pointer- Powell back on, and a right slog, which he needs- hopefully he is mentally up for it- thought the tip over priced at 10s,8s, so, anyway, we have the price. It would be nice if a well backed one, won. We shall see!

      Josh 02/02/17 3:33 PM Reply


      • Unlucky Josh. Read the race well and got the value. And thought Sean was gonna pull that out the fire for us. Cracking ride but couldnt quite cut it.

        As for the winner, I guess the clues were there. A logical play given he held the tipped horse on LTO form. Should have had something on at least. Once again must rue the fact we can’t play this game in retrospect

        Ali 02/02/17 4:07 PM Reply


        • I wouldn’t say unlukcy, best horse won on the day and a decent enough price. I think I removed some original thoughts on him from last nights post, was aware of the form tieing in, and 3rd run of season,possibly he was going to peak- I thought the selection may have got in a pace battle in a better race LTO,a long way from home, and paid for that late, but liked the ground. I had a stamina niggle and got that completely wrong as he has out-stayed him there. I didn’t have anything on him annoyingly as he was prob main danger, along with CtC if he was on a going day, which is wasn’t. Thought as they turned for home the winner was gone but battled well. Moving on.

          Josh 02/02/17 4:12 PM Reply


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