FREE DAILY POST: 01/02/17 (complete)

 

TIPS

3.30 Hereford 

Streets Of Promise – 1 point win – 12/1 (general) 3rd 16/1

Well a distant 3rd, only three finishers. That was attritional and clearly no shock result with the fav winning. If building on that last run he was entitled to do that but I was content to take him on- he must be a tough horse to do that, in those conditions, on the back of his effort LTO. Mountainous ran his race and he just keeps going when most cry enough. Lee will find a race for him, further the better. Streets of Promise drifted in price as if needing the run but went well for a time- possibly doing too much with the McCain horse but I am not sure that made the difference. Still, one to keep an eye on. 

IF, and it is an IF, this one is fully tuned up here, I think she should be 7s,8s maybe – i think this price looks generous. Last season was her first chasing and she didn’t do much wrong, progressing all the way through. This is her second season chasing and in that sense has the most interesting profile here, now 2/5,3p p chasing. She has a tendency to jump to the right a tad and did well around those LH chase tracks and I am interested to see if he is more comfortable going this way round. She is a proven mud lover and has stayed on well up the Towcester hill before, over hurdles, which is always a good sign as to stamina. Michael Scudamore can ready them, as we saw with Mysteree at Haydock. That was 180 or so days off in deep mud- no problem. So, if he wants her fit here, and has decided this pot is worth going for, she will be ready. If it is a prep for something else,that is 1 point gone. But, with horses 12s+, I can live with that. She is also usually a prominent racer and could make all here- or at least give Waldorf Salad company before going on. It may be she just isn’t good enough but I would like to think there could be more to come and at a double figure price, I am more than happy to pay to find out. Any marked drift would concern me, and if she is held up, then I will know also. But, rarely do you find 12+ shots without some sort of question to answer. The trainer’s horses have been going well also and this mare looks one to keep an eye on this season.

Of the rest…

Goodtoknow may bolt up but is 3s, had a tough race LTO,has nearly 1 stone more on his back, the headgear may not work again. Clear chance, happy to take on. Racing Pulse is also short enough to me given his profile. Again a clear chance I suppose but hasn’t been one to trust recently. Has ability and conditions should be fine, although still need to be convinced he wants a true slog in the mud over this far. Not a shock winner. Neither is Mountainous who is a system bet below, and I may have some of my ‘system’ bank on that one- well I probably should, as my subjective judgement is useless with those sometimes. But he isn’t getting any younger, he only ran OK the last day and I am not convinced this drop in trip is in his favour. Now, if the rest fall in a hole, he could just keep going- well he will keep going, and a big run wouldn’t be a shock if getting back to his Welsh National form. Lee’s horses are going much better now. If he were double figures I may have been lured in for tipping purposes. He is 0/5,0p going RH also-only a minor niggle when you look at those races,but a question. Waldorf Salad- that PU puts me off LTO, that was a poor run given his record fresh and that of the trainer in such race types. He also has a question over his level of form also as this is deep enough and I am not sure he is good enough.

Federici- he was the other one I looked at for a time, but he is 15/2 and not 12/1, and that kind of made my mind up. Also, I am yest to be convinced he wants a proper slog in the mud over this far- although there is enough bits and pieces of Irish form to suggest that probably shouldn’t be a concern. Like the Warwick horses, he had a tough race LTO also and had every chance. He may prefer going RH here but ran well enough the last day. He is now 0/5,0p chasing OR 131+, and I do wonder if the handicapper has him for the time being. He may not, but it is a niggle. He will track the pace and be in the right spot. Were he 12s I would have had a play I think as he looks to stay well, on good at least. This could be a real test though and at 15/2, given the above, I was happy to leave him.

I can’t have the rest for one reason or another.

PACE… well mine should be up there, leading with any luck, if she is here to run her race. It won’t be fun to watch if she is held up. But, I am comfortable taking on the rest at the prices.

It should be an informative race and looks decent mid week chasing fare.

Good luck whatever you go with, and brave souls if you follow me in! (I am still backing them, don’t worry)

 

 

 

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Jumps Angles

Tom George Chasers

3.40 Leic – Some Are Lucky

 

K Lee Chasers  (12/1<)

3.30 Here – Mountainous

 

Handicap Hurdle/Chase Portfolio– Live Test

2.10 Leic – Ballinvarrig

4.40 Leic – Xhale

 

***

That will be all for today.

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

28 Comments

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  • I fancy Bells & Banjos to follow up his cd win,O Brien has ended his mini drought and the master of Leicester is on board 8/1 Bet365 just gone 7/1

    gearoid180468 31/01/17 7:34 PM Reply


    • Great shout Geraoid…. took it as a saver….
      Cheers mate.

      tonymc 01/02/17 3:53 PM Reply


  • Close agian today but no cigar (I suspect we were always held despite it looking like he might get there towards the line). Nice to finally have some decent racing tomorrow.

    Firstly I love the look of Chef Doeuvre in the 14:00 at Hereford, although so does everyone else since I missed the 4s and just about got the 7/2 (I would say 3/1 still just about ok). Described by Greatrex as one of the toughest horses he has ever trained and also one of his most improved over the summer. Trainer also thought he make a good stayer. He also absolutely loves heavy ground having only ever beaten on the surface once and that was in a Grade 2. Ran with credit LTO in a listed race only 9 lengths behind American who looks to be a very good horse. Gavin Sheenan back on board is another plus. Trainer is in solid form. (is he ever not). Expect him to go very well.

    Moving on to the 15:30 I want a proven mad lover and I want to have an e/w on Mountainous. He has effectively been dropped to a mark of 126 if you include his jockey’s claim which is 6lbs below his mark when he won the Welsh National. He gets a 12lb swing with his stablemate Goodtoknow who heads the market but looks very short in a race such as this considering he is now carrying cvonsiderably more weight on his back. Kerry Lee is thriving and 6 of her last 9 runners have finished in the top 3.

    Moving on to Leicester I want to have a bet on Crosspark in the 15:40. Comes from THAT race where the form has been franked to death (Pobbles Bay, Bun Doran, Poker School, Brandon Hill, Gino Trail). LTO I think he was beaten by a very enterprising Danny Cook front running ride. Considering there are a number of front runners here I can’t see any of them getting their way up front and Skelton should be able to stay just off the pace. Jockey has a very good record for the trainer which has been well documented. Bailey herself is 3/7, 5p here in handicaps over the past 12 months and her first winner since September just a week ago and her last 4 runners have gone 1P32. Leicester are expecting 8-12mm of rain tonight so would be surprised if the gorund isnt soft tomorrow but even good/soft will be fine.

    nickmazur 31/01/17 8:50 PM Reply


    • Ahh yes a proven mad lover……We all want one of them Nick 🙂

      Good Luck mate

      Steve Wiseman 31/01/17 9:26 PM Reply


      • searched all my life Steve….zilch. lol.

        Tony Mc. 01/02/17 11:59 AM Reply


      • Oops LMAO. How’s that edit button coming along Josh?

        Nick Mazur 01/02/17 12:26 PM Reply


    • Crosspark ClockW 0-0-3 A ClockW 2-3-5
      leic is ClockW
      i will add Dueling Banjos ew that race

      Pab 01/02/17 1:28 AM Reply


    • I think that’s what you call a value 3/1 shot

      Nick Mazur 01/02/17 2:14 PM Reply


      • Good Shout on the chef Nick

        mozzer 01/02/17 4:12 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh / All

    Well today i caught that horrible disease that comes around every now again that can only be described as “Empty Wallet Syndrome” a shocker of a day starting with the 3 sire selections Lightsome and more so Pulsating missing the break badly finishing 3rd & 4th, Heartstone held off the pace and could just stay on at one pace for 4th….The 2 Mcguinness horses finishing 8th & 2nd, I was against the fav in the 5.20pm which fairly bolted in from a lovely front running ride from Mr Stott so a 2nd & 5th there and to finish the day off my EW banker Cliff finishing 6th of 11 although he did have an awful trip couldn’t get in from a wide draw and then had his route blocked by the winner in the home straight. The only positives I can take are to give another chance to Pulsating and Cliff if they run here or Newcastle and Lightsome probably can pick up a race of some description if breaking on terms……

    For more bad news I have finished updating the “Super Stallions” for January and as anyone who has followed will know they have under performed making a 22% loss of initial investment, figures are as follows……..

    37 selections, 7 winners, 18 places – 18.92% win SR 48.65% win & place SR

    The longest losing run is 8 (the last 8) and longest winning run is 2. Using the staking plan the initial investment of £1000 is now sitting at £779.61
    The winners have all been fairly short with the following odds taken or BOG 3.25, 3.00, 5.5, 2.0, 2.5, 2.75 & 5.5. The best 3 placed horses have had odds of 47.29. 24.88 & 17.05 (Betfair SP’s) so on a slightly positive note if 1 of these had won the month would have been profitable but the reality is above.

    So what have I learned? Well having picked what looks on paper as “Super Sires” with all having at least a 40.00% win SR they have returned this month with less than half of the expected win ratio so for me this can mean 1 of 2 things either the SR is too high and there has been a correction this month to bring the ratio down or a bit like the stock market buying shares when the price is high and there has to be an inevitable downturn or once again correction. So in comparison to the 40.00% + SR maybe this is as high as they are going to be and there has to be a lull before they pick up again. As this is a live test the only way to know is to continue for another month and see what unfolds either a massive correction to their original state or the same sort of level we have seen this month. I would like to think we can hit some better odds winners this month and hopefully at least back to the original investment. Any comments or suggestions for critique/improvements?

    There are no qualifiers as such tomorrow but a previous 50/1 selection runs over a vastly increased trip at Kempton up a whole 1M to this 2M trip.

    5.20 Kempton – Tynecastle Park 10.0 Bet365
    Sea the Stars 3 runs, 1 win, 2 places – 33.33% win SR 66.67% place SR

    Having put this one up via the sire stats at Southwell there was no doubt that this fellow needs a trip slowly away every time outpaced and just starting to hit 3rd gear when the race is over. Ideally I would have liked to see him run over 2M at Southwell as he has a high knee action and the fibresand would suit well, However he could be so well handicapped over this extreme flat distance that it won’t matter and the sire stats over C&D are good and to add to that Kempton’s surface has been Standard to Slow for a good few months now (apparently ground down old carpets) so this will help any jarring. I was hoping for 20/1 + and may wait until the morning to see if any better odds are available as the best he has finished up to this point is 6th….

    And last but not least…..

    Having watched Rich Again win at Newcastle on Saturday it become apparent that this is not a coincidence i:e that horses that have already won at Newcastle are coming back and winning again and again more than the norm, I wanted to look into this and see if this was definitely the case and the figures back this up, I’ve looked at all the AW tracks and the highest winning % I can find at any other track for all horses that have won and come back to win again is 13.00% on long term you would have made a loss backing them all blindly, but this is so different at Newcastle if we first of all look at any horse that has won a race on the tapeta at Newcastle and then returned (any trip) we would have had…..

    250 selections, 47 of them have won again with 100 placing this brings the Win SR to 18.8% and 40.00% win & place SR +18.62 SP, +47.22 BFSP

    If we then looked at horses that have won a minimum of twice at Newcastle we have the following……

    36 selections, 10 winners, 20 places 27.78% win SR 55.56% win & place SR
    +34.83 SP, +45.72 BFSP

    And finally horses that have won a minimum of 3 times…..

    7 selections, 2 wins, 4 places 28.57% win SR, 57.14% win & place SR
    +1.41 SP, +2.53 BFSP

    It seems that the combination of a straight track (up to 1M) and the tapeta is really playing to certain horses strengths. So if we transfer the data to a staking plan for each scenario (same as for the “super sires”) we have the following……..

    3 winners minimum – Initial investment £1000 now £1042.62 with a high of £1085.61 and a low of £960.40.

    1 winner minimum – Initial investment £1000 now £1571.48 with a high of £2425.63 and a low of £949.36. Longest losing run 17. Longest winning run 3.

    2 winners minimum – Initial Investment £1000 now £2149.50 with a high of £2193.37 and a low of £800.00. Longest losing run 7. Longest winning run 2

    All are profitable and the one that catches the eye is with 2 winners minimum, I’ll start a new spreadsheet starting from scratch for these and post up selections as they occur again any suggestions or improvements will be great.

    Tomorrow there are 5 qualifiers

    4.25 Newcastle – Go George Go 2.75 & Taopix 5.5
    Go George Go has 4 wins out of 4 here and will qualify for all 3 strategies, Taopix has 2 wins out of 7 here and will qualify for 2 strategies

    5.30 Newcastle – Royal Celebration 3.75
    1 win out of 3 here – qualifies for 1 strategy

    6.30 Newcastle – Rock Warbler 2.12
    3 out of 4 here -qualifies for all 3 strategies

    7.00 Newcastle – Savannah Beau 7.5
    1 out of 3 here – qualifies for 1 strategy

    Phew thats all for this evening Good luck with any selections

    Cheers
    Steve

    Steve Wiseman 31/01/17 9:18 PM Reply


    • Steve, that was a good read. I was also thinking the same about returning winners at Newcastle with Rich again winning. Good luck today 🙂

      Gavin 01/02/17 2:20 PM Reply


    • We have all suffered ’empty wallet syndrome’ Steve from time to time, well, on certain fronts on this blog I don’t even have any spare change down the sofa left,let alone anything in my wallet! 🙂

      ‘Super Stallions’ is tricky, given the data samples/numbers etc. There are some of your stats I look and go, wow, such as the 5/10,7p type of ones, and in that sense it would be interesting to see the stats behind some of the winners. It is a question of at which point do you trust the stats in order to then have a go at a horse who may be having their first try at the surface,and the issue of how many horses may make up said historical stats. I don’t think there is a correct answer to that and a case of trial and error. But certainly 1/from x, 2 from X can be flimsy indeed.
      You could try out for a minimum of 5 winners for said sires, from different horses. And also a question of what race types and whether you just look at horses having their first go on the surface/trip etc.

      You will find the key at some point.

      Maybe it is more an approach in which to play the place market? That could be an option, esp given some of those odds etc.

      Josh

      Josh 01/02/17 2:23 PM Reply


      • Hi Josh

        Yes I tend to agree with the data samples and up to date for the main selections i’ve used a minimum of 4 runs and 2 wins as long as there was 2 different winners but on reflection this is probably not enough of a sample and needs revisiting, I like the idea of 1st time trying C&D with the backing of the sire data and this is usually where the better odds are too. The whole approach may need changing and I have a few ideas but I think for this month I’ll continue with the same method to see if there is a correction and if it stays the same or god forbid is worse then it will be time for a revamp. Thanks for your input Josh much appreciated.

        Steve Wiseman 01/02/17 8:52 PM Reply


    • Typical Steve, I already had Magistral in the 4.25 at 16/1…but Taopix came through great under Luke Morris…great pick lad.
      1st day I leave em…one comes in lol.

      tonymc 01/02/17 4:53 PM Reply


      • Thanks Tony

        at least 1 won anyway, I didn’t back any as it happens as having a re-think on the best approach

        Cheers
        Steve

        Steve Wiseman 01/02/17 8:56 PM Reply


  • If soft at leic than Sonny The One has best chance to win at
    2:10 he is 4/1 Bells ‘N’ Banjos also for me

    Pab 01/02/17 12:54 AM Reply


  • Leic is clocwisei think lady b is 0-0-2 on clokwise and 5-2-11 on anticlockwise

    Pab 01/02/17 1:18 AM Reply


  • Venita Williams and Liam Tredwell
    3.30 Hereford Waldorf Salad

    colin leafe 01/02/17 11:34 AM Reply


  • I am. Still looking for signs of the Gary Moore stable coming back to life. They have a fancied runner today in the 3.10 Lei, around 4/1, King Cool.

    martin colwell 01/02/17 12:25 PM Reply


  • Afternoon all,

    I’m once again on pearl spcetre 4.20 kempton. Back up to 7f with the booking of Mr Kirby just looked now and still looks value at 6/1 as I have him as at 2/1 shot

    Good luck all

    Gavin 01/02/17 2:16 PM Reply


    • Well he had every chance just didn’t have it I the end.

      Gavin 01/02/17 4:25 PM Reply


  • Fancy Fedirici and Streets of promise myself Josh, so that will have put the mockers on them!
    Watched Streets of Promises runs on replay and he looks the battling type you need in these staying chases.
    Same with Fedirici, we will see….

    maccas71 01/02/17 2:22 PM Reply


    • yep my eyes homed in on those two, and a question of odds decided it really, and I didn’t want two in a race like that really… doesn’t look that strong in the market but he has big priced winners,and I just hope a sign more of money for the others than her not being fit. We shall see. Was worth a punt at those odds. If he is fit and front runs/races prominently,she will out-run those odds. McCains is interesting also. A few of those have had tough races LTO so will be interesting how they cope!

      I don’t need anyone to put the mockers on my tips, quite capable of doing that myself! 🙂 GL.

      Josh 01/02/17 2:28 PM Reply


  • Banjos the world Brennan is master Dualing second becouse Brennan was no riding on him why i took Allee Bleue ew only

    Pab 01/02/17 3:55 PM Reply


    • Federici was runing great race,someting happens at the finish

      Pab 01/02/17 3:59 PM Reply


      • yep couple of good races there, well done with Paddys. That George horse is a right sod, downs tools whenever asked for effort, needs headgear although not sure that will save him. He was the best horse in that race and if had attitude of Brennans would have won well- but he didn’t. Great persevering ride from Paddy.

        McCains, well I don’t know if his and mind went too hard up front as they both fell in a hole. He refused I think because he was just shattered. The fact only 3 finished says it all and so does the fact that the two Lee horses were the only ones going. Must have been deep.

        Josh 01/02/17 4:21 PM Reply


  • In a pre race interview Kerry Lee mentioned the Devon National at Exeter as the target for Mountainous later this month. Don’t know what the conditions will be but one to keep in mind. She also said the winner was been trained for the Grand National and needed to win to have any chance of getting in so job done. Clearly a young lady going places.

    Karl 01/02/17 4:02 PM Reply


    • oh she is a great trainer for sure and if she gets the ammo can only go one way. If I had a mud loving slogger I wouldn’t want them with any other trainers. She keeps them sweet as well into their teenage years. I thought 3s skinny enough but he did that very well and is clearly a thorough stayer, and a tough one at that. Ah sounds like she may send both Mountainous and Alfie Spinner there then. If that is soft/Heavy Mountainous would have to be high up on any list and on that basis wont’ be far away at all.

      Josh 01/02/17 4:07 PM Reply


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