TTP Jumps Notes: 29/01/17 (complete)

1.The Ratings Pointers

2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

4.Any general messages/updates etc

**

1.The Ratings Pointers

HorseRaceBase

Top Rated 

1.20 Sed – Spiculus – UP

Top 3

4.10 Font- Letemgo – WON 12/1>8/1

 

Geegeez Speed

Top Rated 

1.20 Sed – Spiculus- UP

Top 3

3.50 Sed – Turtle Cask – UP

3.10 Font – Remiluc 2nd 

4.10 Font- Letemgo – WON 12/1>8/1

 

2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

SEDGEFIELD

1.20 –

Spiculas (all hcnps) 2/1- UP

Tontos Spirit (all hncps)  10/1- WON 12/1

3.20

Special Catch (all hncps) 11/4 WON – 11/4>2/1

Caraline (hncp chase) 7/1- UP

3.50

Tiger Mountain (all hncps) 11/1 – UP

Turtle Cask (hncp hurdle) 10/1 – UP

Swinton Diamond (micro age) 28/1 – UP

4.20

Cool Baranca (hncp hurdle) 10/1 UP

Baby Ticker (micro 90 days) 18/1 – UP 12/1 (you,couldn’t make it up,well Letemgo may have been fortunate due to a faller,albeit unsure, as leader at time getting tired. This one had the race in the bag,but swerved to stables I think, jockey couldn’t do too much, tried to be kept straight- albeit he could have just let her drift to the rail to help maybe. Never mind. Painful for those who had a nibble at a decent price!) 

 

FONTWELL

3.10

Remiluc (hncp hurdle)  5/1 – 2nd 13/2

St Saviour (micro TJC) 8/1- UP

4.10

Letemgo (hncp hurdle) 12/1- WON 12/1>8/1

Shalianzi (hncp hurdle) 14/1 UP 20/1

 

3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

none today. ‘Day off’, albeit there are come decent priced ones above.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

none. Hopefully I haven’t missed any.

Good luck with any bets. Josh

 

**

KEY:(applicable across the blog) 

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 20 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

NOTE: In the ratings pointers above, BOLD indicates a ‘double qualifier,against both ratings’ in RED is a ‘double top rated qualifier- they are 3/4 so far…) (no such qualifiers today)

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

35 Comments

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  • I have reviewed a system I set up in my HRB mid way through last year for runners of trainers having 1 or 2 runners at a track, having travelled more than 200 miles. It was performing at 133/477 (28%) +451pts, 225P since 2013. I have reviewed it by separating out the different trainers under differing simple filters (track, price, jockey etc) with the following result;

    R. Bastiman – 6/10, +38pts,
    J. Candlish – 7/12, +28pts
    W. Hag gas – 36/95, +35pts
    N. Hawke – 15/28, +73pts
    Dr. R. Newland – 11/19, +35pts
    H. Palmer – 13/23, +65pts
    Sir M. Stoute – 24/44, +56pts
    C. Tizzard – 12/29, +42pts

    Irish trainers
    E. Bolger – 10/17, +28pts
    C. Byrne – 9/27, +36pts
    J. Culloty – 4/10, +36pts

    The collective above give a return of 147/314 (47%), +465pts, 204P

    Hope this is of some interest.

    Chris R.

    broadsword 28/01/17 6:23 PM Reply


    • Will you be posting qualifiers here, Chris?

      chrisrees 28/01/17 10:10 PM Reply


    • Thanks a lot for sharing your system Chris, much appreciated. As a member of HRB it’s always good to have something new to add to the portfolio.

      Jamie 29/01/17 12:18 AM Reply


    • Chris,
      Could you please give an indication as to what filters you use.
      Cheers
      Andy

      Andy Ness 29/01/17 6:18 AM Reply


  • Thanks for your efforts Broadsword. Based upon those figures everyone can pack up work and put it into practice.

    I am very upset by the demise of Many Clouds. Leighton Aspell is an annual guest at the London Racing Club Grand National preview. In the year he won it Leighton told us he thought the horse had it in the bag. Last year he said he had some worries and not to back it. He spoke with much pride and feeling about the horse. What a star to beat Thistlecrack, who will go onto be a star. For Many Clouds to be carried out on his shield is no consolation to us national hunt enthusiasts who will miss him greatly.

    martin colwell 28/01/17 8:21 PM Reply


    • I’m sure his loss is being felt across the country, Martin, he has had a huge following.
      I do hope that Trevor Hemmings will institute a continuing prize fund for Aintree and Cheltenham in his memory. That would be much appreciated by the sport and the fans, and imo, the best tribute that the owner could pay to his star.

      chrisrees 28/01/17 10:20 PM Reply


  • I note that the Sam England handicappers were being backed early (and indiscriminately?) again this evening.

    chrisrees 28/01/17 10:12 PM Reply


    • Aye that seems to be par for the course now doesn’t it? Given how savvy they were in placing (and then punting on) their first few big winners, presumably they’ll be pretty smart about engineering a few well fancied losers to protect future prices?

      Neil 29/01/17 10:41 PM Reply


  • Good morning . Could anyone help me. Has anyone subscribed to Darren Pearce for his Hunter Chase information. I sent my payment last Monday but haven’t heard more from him.
    Thanks
    Charles.

    jc3152 29/01/17 7:34 AM Reply


    • Hi Charles…Yes. I have joined. I paid by old fashioned cheque and Darran got right back the next day to tell me I was in.
      He only sent the review of Warwick and informed me that the next actual backing venue would be on next Wednesday/Thursday.
      I’m sure it must be an oversight, but I’d e-mail him just to be sure. he replies quite quickly.

      tonymc 29/01/17 12:09 PM Reply


    • Hi Charles, I have just emailed him for you to find out. Do check your junk/spam folders/filters to make sure it hasn’t gone in there somewhere. No doubt it may just be an oversight somewhere. Josh

      Josh 29/01/17 12:25 PM Reply


  • hi chris
    very interesting system, how do you find out travelled more than 200 miles?

    pendrem 29/01/17 7:50 AM Reply


    • Hi Malcolm, to answer for Chris..there is a setting in HorseRaceBase for distance (miles) traveled etc.
      I won’t dive into any private discussion you may want to have about paying him etc,albeit then he has to send you selections every day – but another alternative is to get a HRB account for £10 per month and just add in the system, given Chris has kindly shared it and I am sure that is what some members are doing as I write 🙂

      Josh

      Josh 29/01/17 9:56 AM Reply


      • Hi josh where in HRB is the setting for distance traveled?

        mozzer 29/01/17 12:20 PM Reply


        • Hi Mozzer, it is down as ‘miles traveled’ and it is in the V4 system builder, in the Horse Data box (second section down) and on my screen it is second column from the right, 3rd box down. Josh

          Josh 29/01/17 12:22 PM Reply


          • Tx josh my 1st effort at V4

            mozzer 29/01/17 12:50 PM Reply


  • hi chris
    further to above, i would be willing to pay for those selections, how much do you want a month?

    pendrem 29/01/17 7:55 AM Reply


  • Very interesting Chris thanks for posting up!

    James b 29/01/17 9:51 AM Reply


  • hi josh

    i have sorted how to find distance travelled by finding where they train, just need to google distance from training centre to track, then gives distance on a map. he mentions track and jockey filter, so bets might not be all, but with that profit, all should win anyway. will back all and keep own track/jockey/price records.

    pendrem 29/01/17 10:27 AM Reply


  • I would still class myself a relative novice in using HRB, and as a resultI definitely have no interest in charging for the selections from these systems. Following my review yesterday I will have an increased focus myself on these going forward and as the number of qualifiers is limited, I am sure I will be able to find some of my limited time to post qualifiers (wish I could be on here all day). Just bear in mind the qualifiers can change through the day on price changes.

    So just to clarify:

    Standard filters
    Year – 2013-2017
    Miles Travelled – NOT between 1 and 200
    Trainers runners (Day at track) – Between 1 and 2

    I have then used the Breakdown function to identify any other relative filters for each trainer if relevant, such as:

    Odds
    Track – if any patterns seen
    Jockeys – as above
    HCP/Non – only applied to a couple

    Josh – do you set the odds actually in your systems so only qualifiers are shown, or do you leave so all potential qualifiers can be seen, and monitor for the required odds?

    Chris R.

    broadsword 29/01/17 12:19 PM Reply


  • Whilst I am finding the time, I have 2 today from other micro’s;

    3:10 Fontwell – Admirals Secret (Nick Schofield micro – where he is 3/4 for V. Dartnall). Same micro also gives Bolving in the 1:40 but too short for me.

    3:20 Sedgefield – Special Catch 3/1 from a couple of Malcolm Jefferson micros, but especially here at Sedgefield (although has drifted from initial 2/1).

    Chris R.

    broadsword 29/01/17 12:31 PM Reply


  • This Longest Traveller Idea has Surely been around Donkeys Years. I think it was Flagged up in the Old Sporting Investor Monthly Magazine. Anyone out there old Enough to Remember.
    Is Chris Highlighting Certain Trainers. Not wishing to pour Cold Water on Idea. I Think the Idea behind this in the Old days Was that Trainers would Not go to Time and Expense to Shift Horses a Long Distance. The last time I looked at this Systemites Seemed to Feel That With Moterways and Better Horseboxes etc that Distance no longer a Winning Pointer.
    I think Longest Travellers Flagged in Racing Post.
    Certainly the Longest Traveller of the Day is Posted in The Mirror.
    Today Johnny Farrelly Sends Ascendant 2:50 and Yur Next 4:20 on a 303 Mile Trip from Enmore Somerset to Sedgefield.
    Ascendant 10/11 Yur Next Now a Non Runner. Did He transport the Two up there . or Did Travel not suit Your next. I Wonder how long Horses get to Settle.
    R

    Richard Hannell 29/01/17 12:33 PM Reply


    • Hi Richard. yes!, I well remember the old system. But I think the difference is the filters that Broadsword has entered into the equation.
      That was definitely not around back then. I’ve been a system man all my life, and yes they outlive there time, but this is a totally different ball game I think.
      I’d love to get rid of my sharp pencils. lol

      Great stuff Chris. BOL.

      tonymc 29/01/17 1:55 PM Reply


  • Stats Pack don’t lie Josh…..Tonto’s Spirit romped home. Great price 12/1.
    Hope you had a nibble Josh.

    1st and 2nd were H/c debutants. mmmm must be an in there Josh. any thoughts off the top of your head.?

    tonymc 29/01/17 1:47 PM Reply


    • I did have a small nibble yes, influenced by the TJC test also on free page. Was in a rush this morning so didn’t over think that one- again, another that was unexposed!
      Handicap debutants are covered in the stats pack, but certainly it is an area for further analysis, am sure there will be X no. trainers we could follow blind with such types.
      Section 2 has had a good end to the month,a bugger that none have been ratings pointers but hopefully a few have backed some of them. Can’t say I backed any of Kings yesterday. His Mias was 10s night before, 16s in morning i think but didn’t look closely then, post race, another unexposed one, trainer won race last year,last two runs/form made perfect sense,16s was decent price. On we go.

      Josh 29/01/17 3:08 PM Reply


  • Baby Ticker in the 4.20. The All Qualifiers were due a very good day until….. OMG did anyone watch it?

    Robin 29/01/17 4:27 PM Reply


    • Indeed. I was almost counting my money – well I was counting haha. That’s racing, may have benefited from a faller with the Fontwell winner, racing gods have a way! But damn. That was painful. Not sure what jock could have done, maybe let her drift over, tried to fight it and was unbalanced. On we go. Good to see the stats working and thank the lord for a 12/1 RP winner. They needed that. And they need a few more.

      Josh 29/01/17 4:30 PM Reply


    • I backed it…I’m sitting here cursing and swearing…wasn’t even over the jump.

      tonymc 29/01/17 4:31 PM Reply


      • That’s racing Tony. Without the fall in the Fontwell race, Letemgo ‘may’ have been running on into 2nd. And personally, given the amount I had on Letemgo,i just prefer that he won,albeit not much in it- and to be blunt, the ratings pointers needed that winner. That last one was very unfortunate. She looked tricky the whole way round, jockey will be cursing also, if he had his time again he would have let her drift and then kept her up to work along the rail. Never mind. Funny old game, eh. Still, we can’t be greedy, the blog, across the board, hasn’t done badly on the winners front today… 7/1, 12/1 x2, 12/1,11/4. And a close 2nd 13/2. We would take that every day of the week, but a 20/1 cheery on top of the cake would have been nice! Damn.

        Josh 29/01/17 4:38 PM Reply


        • The last two races of the day were crazy! I managed to get a couple of quid matched on Letmego at 120/1 which was nice, then had a bet on Nicki’s Nipper in the last which looked to be scuppered, then gave me some hope, then came to naught.

          Still, the money on Letemgo meant it was a good day overall!

          Neil 29/01/17 10:37 PM Reply


  • Just a reminder if you backed letemgo with bet365 it was one of their 4/1 offersso you should have a free bet tmrow

    phil lloyd 29/01/17 4:32 PM Reply


    • Good shout Phil, I played with them so will look out for that. Cheers.

      Josh 29/01/17 4:33 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh
    |Good day all round today Josh well done , feel more normal today, after Many Clouds yesterday, a warrior of the highest order RIP old friend.

    Steve M 29/01/17 4:54 PM Reply


    • Thanks Steve, a good end to the month, stats wise, and RP wise after a superb start and the horror show since, but that lifts the mood if nothing else, on that front.
      Still a sense of loss over Many Clouds. Probably the star I have seen most in the flesh, being an Aintree regular, along with Cue Card I suppose after some Haydock visits also. Just desperate. I don’t think you could ask for more in a race horse. Probably one of the, if not the, best jumper in training, given his record and the heart/attitude to match. I doubt I will see a tougher horse or one who wanted to please his rider most. He loved his job, and he loved winning. And it took everything out of him to beat Thistlecrack. So sad, because on that basis, if Aintree was Good, we could have been looking at the next Red Rum. But, he will be in our hearts and minds for ever more.

      Josh 29/01/17 5:01 PM Reply


      • Don’t believe it! Had to go out yesterday & missed the winners me just had horror show lol

        Andrew Silvera 30/01/17 8:06 AM Reply


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