FREE DAILY POST: 27/01/17 (complete)

Well those stats didn’t work as well as Sunday but never mind. Both ran rather poorly in the end.

Those of you who joined Darran’s Hunter chase service had a good start, tipping the 1st and 2nd in Warwick’s Hunter chase ,and an EW stab that finished unplaced, for a small profit on the race. The write-up was bloody good also.

Anyway, moving on…

 

TIPS

none. The chase at Donny doesn’t tempt me in really, having had a quick glance.

Saturday… well all that Cheltenham card is missing is a 3m+ graded handicap chase! It is a cracker and I will watch with interest but doubt, bar any systems etc, if I will be punting on anything. The main ‘tipping focus’ will likely be the SkyBet Chase from Donny. I think I had the winner of that on here last year also, back in the day when I could pick’um!

 

***

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Jumps Angles

Tom George Chasers

1.55 Donc – Behind The Wire 2nd 6/4>11/4

2.55 Donc – Baraza

 

Handicap hurdle/chase Portfolio – Live test

1.55 Donc – Behind The Wire 2nd 6/4>11/4

 

**

Not Again??

A few tasty priced ones mentioned by your good selves below and they all look interesting. As touched on below, Sam England runs Petal in the 2.55 Donny on handicap debut, now 3/4 with such types and I think we have all clocked onto that bandwagon (thanks Ali/Chutney Daves Daily Punt Column- a must read) and I suspect it will pay over time. This Petal has been put in at 28s, which I would have thought is a dangerous game. I would have said the market usually guides with these types, but then they had a 33/1 close second at Catterick earlier in the week, highlighted by one of you- a Joe/James maybe, my memory fails me. So, who knows. This one makes chase debut also, and runs on good ground for the first time- that may or may not make some difference also. PU in a point, so may not actually be any good, but we know they are a shrewd outfit and at 28s I have had a small nibble. Yard continues in fine form.

 

That will be all for today. There will be some stats/trends for the SkyBet Chase up asap for Members, that is my next job on the list.

Good luck with all your bets, as always,

Josh

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A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

50 Comments

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  • One horse of interest to me at a nice price is Beautiful People in the 15.45 at Taunton.
    Kept it in the tracker since its run at Uttoxeter in a maiden hurdle making quite eye-catching headway in the last furlong to finish a never nearer 20 length 3rd, noting it wants a step up in trip once handicapping. Since then has raced on (possibly) unsuitably soft ground and then over an inadequate 2m trip lto.
    Tomorrow sees this one get good ground and a trip of 3m. Has stamina in its pedigree and has dropped from an opening mark of 103 to 95, being beaten a total of 160 odd lengths in its last two runs. Hopefully this is a handicap mark the trainer is happy with for this one (can’t get much lower mind!).
    Has absolutely nothing to offer itself on paper given past two runs i could be mad but has conditions that look to suit tomorrow in a piss poor race.
    Couldn’t help but back at 25/1 ew with pp.

    leon1986 26/01/17 6:54 PM Reply


    • Good luck Leon, looks like you may be onto one there, now halved in price. Looks very interesting and is doing what you want, namely, something different. The step up in trip is interesting and the trainer/jockey are in form.. I wonder, Hiskett has shown himself to be very good from the front recently, mainly on this trainer’s mounts, it will be interesting if he tries to make all. I wouldn’t put it passed him.

      Josh 27/01/17 9:14 AM Reply


      • …and just had a look at sire results. One or two good quality performers in the line. You may well have hit on something even if not today.

        Steve 27/01/17 10:19 AM Reply


    • Good EW bet there- she was ridden to me as if they were not sure whether she would stay, but that answers the question I think. The winner dictated from the front pretty much and is solid enough at that lowly level, but she finished well enough. Met odd bit of trouble with loose horse. I would keep an eye on here NTO, esp if they decide to ride her confident she will stay, either making all,or with a stronger pace to aim at.

      Josh 27/01/17 3:56 PM Reply


      • Happy with the EW money there Josh. More profitable than backing the winner. Not watched race as yet so will be interested to see how she went on.
        Will keep an eye on her – think she wants good ground so may be one for spring / summer hurdle.
        Any fancies in the Skybet chase tomorrow?
        Bigbadjohn looks chucked in off a mark of 136 based on its last two runs. Been backed all week but 5’s could still be reasonable given it finished 8 lengths behind Thistlecrack off level weights. Looks the best handicapped horse in the race to my eye.

        leon1986 27/01/17 4:17 PM Reply


        • Yep, he is right near top of my list, well him, Caid Du Berlais (who at 14s I may not be able to resist) and Coologue (not sure if quite good enough from this mark,needs more) I think those are the three I keep staring at. I cant work out what to do with Big Bad John – he also quals on a very small micro angle for the race- in the last 10 years, 8 horses with 7 or fewer lifetime starts have rocked up in this, 4 of them have won…

          Josh 27/01/17 4:23 PM Reply


          • Nice micro angle Josh, Caid Du Berlais never really convinced me as a chaser even though he won the paddy power a few years ago…..
            Top 5 in the ratings look up against it for one reason or another….
            BigBadJohn seems to have been campaigned with this in mind to me? I know he’s relatively inexperienced but second season chasers have done fairly well in this race recently and he may just have a few pounds in hand here based on his chase runs so far.

            Good luck with whatever you back and I look forward to reading any tips you have on the race.

            leon1986 27/01/17 4:45 PM Reply


            • Oh he may well hack up, just about the price- and at 9/2 or so, I can’t tempt myself, but I may have that wrong. Were he 6s,7s I may have had a go. looks like this has been the target for sure. I need to get back to focusing on bigger priced ones in races like this, double figure prices, and of those I thought the Nicholls charge looked the most interesting. You must be an OK chaser to win the Paddy Power? 🙂

              Josh 27/01/17 5:06 PM Reply


  • Bit late I know, but only just realised Foylesideview runs in the 8:30 Wolverhampton tonight. I don’t know if anyone else takes a look at Peter Naughtons free Notebook blog, but last Wednesday he added a note ‘I was told to look out for a horse called Foylesideview, as he’s ready to win but the notebook horse was a non-runner. Remember the name’.
    He’s been nibbled with PP from 12’s to 9’s, but is still 12’s in places. He was 4.75 L 6th last time in class 6, and winner & third have won since. Down to class 7 tonight, a C/D winner and 1lb below that winning mark.
    Just thought I would share for anyone interested.

    Chris R.

    broadsword 26/01/17 7:48 PM Reply


    • Was on it without reading this…and ran like a Class 7 backwards. But it’s a Dark Angel and may well pop up somewhere.

      Steve 27/01/17 10:23 AM Reply


      • Yep watched it.. I think jockey tried to rush him up and get position from wide draw, and I think that probably lit him up (albeit was ‘lively’ before and in stalls) , didn’t looked settled to me and was stuck 3/4 wide the whole way, not a total shock as they turned for home that he just ran out of puff. Or he just isn’t very good!

        Josh 27/01/17 10:31 AM Reply


  • Have backed Awesome Rosie twice 3.30 Hunt,well supported in betting each occasion,am hoping its 3rd time lucky at 9/1 BV

    gearoid180468 26/01/17 8:13 PM Reply


  • Two frustrating 4ths today. Not sure if Huntingdon goes ahead tomorrow (plus its been a busy day) so just the tips without the write ups for tomorrow:

    NAP Mixchievous Huntingdon Friday 13:00 0.5pt e/w
    Muthabir Huntingdon Friday 15:30 0.5pt e/w
    How About It Taunton Friday 15:15 0.5pt win

    nickmazur 26/01/17 9:26 PM Reply


    • Muthabir, and Aliandy,
      I will focus mostly on Kerrow 3.55 donc overpriced
      3:15 T Leg Lock Luke against short priced favs
      4:15 T Dream Bolt still low mark Mooloney 31 % strike
      That race War Singer may run well
      2:30 H Whiteout Mulins horse,hope price with rise above 5
      that race Rons Dream can make surprise
      i will look Gores Island he has good chance for his win,for sure very good ew
      Everything depends on price one to half hour beore off that is all secret mr tonymc

      Pab 27/01/17 12:21 AM Reply


      • Cheers pab…..got it lol.

        Tony Mc. 27/01/17 10:37 AM Reply


    • Sadly Huntingdon is off which is a shame since it looked like by far the best card of the day.

      Nick Mazur 27/01/17 8:28 AM Reply


  • One that David Massey advised in his Daily Punt column to put in trackers for when she was sent chasing…Pettal (255D). Currently 33s. To paraphrase him “Cabragh albeit without the P2P win”. Note that Paddys opened at 33s on Ypsilanti who’s as short as 3s now.
    I may also have a small interest in Rolling Maul who Andy Holding suggested for the Coral Cup. He reckoned he didn’t get home lto which tempers enthusiasm tomorrow somewhat. But he is 25s.
    Paul

    blueboy199 26/01/17 9:28 PM Reply


    • Rolling Maul 300H (a popular race by the look of it)
      Paul

      blueboy199 26/01/17 9:37 PM Reply


  • I fancy some outsiders on Friday. Johanos, 2,45 Tau, I believe he has been not match fit in previous runs and is getting nearer his peak. 20/1 about now. Also Clondaw Cian at 20/1 in the 3.00 Hun. His last run was below what he can do. His run before that is a better example of what he can do.

    I also like Rich Again, 6.45 Nc at 9/2. Won LTO and can improve further.

    Martin Colwell 26/01/17 9:31 PM Reply


    • N Hawke (Johanos) also has Captains Horse 215T (hcap debut on good) and Pomme 425D with Danny Cook booked (bumper winner on good + hurdling promise lto 12/15).
      Yard said to have better stock this season.

      chrisrees 27/01/17 1:41 AM Reply


      • had a good word from a late friend (RIP A.A) when Pomme last ran made a total horlicks of the second and then just coasted round to finish a never nearer 4th .Last two races have produced 40 !! winners-must be some kind of a record- and have had a small e.w. at 25s and 34 on betfair

        pete sharp 27/01/17 8:55 AM Reply


    • Hi Martin
      I to like the look of Johanos following Harry Cobdens comments in a recent blog after riding him. He believes he will win a Novice at a price over a trip due to Hawke not being a high profile trainer.

      On a separate note, I believe it was you that was interested in trainers with 1/2 horses at a track when travelling more than 200 miles? If you remember I set up a system in my HRB and promised to try and post up qualifiers. Although I have failed miserably to post qualifiers and in truth I haven’t been monitoring it closely, when having a quick look this morning it has performed well in its current state and I will try to look in more detail tomorrow and give an update. Pomme is a qualifier today for Hawke in D4:25, and he appears to have had many winners under the system but at specific tracks (not Doncaster to-date).

      Chris R.

      broadsword 27/01/17 11:02 AM Reply


      • Pomme ran a nice eyecatching race , lost an iron about 2 out , took a while to get it back , lost its chance to place ,keep an eye out again imo

        john bland 27/01/17 4:39 PM Reply


        • yep that was unlucky for anyone who may have had a small EW nibble! losing the irons + that last flight error rather took the stuffing out of her, given the time off also. bar those two incidents would have placed I suspect but very pleasing return to action, travelled into it nicely.

          Josh 27/01/17 5:08 PM Reply


      • Thanks for your efforts re long distance travellers where they go on their own or with one other horse. I think that there is something there but it has to be proved.

        martin colwell 27/01/17 7:33 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh / All

    3 sandy meetings tomorrow but just the 1 main sire selection

    6.30 Dundalk – Red Avenger 4.5 best odds Paddypower
    War Front, 1M, Dundalk, 10 runs, 5 wins, 7 places 50.00% win SR, 70.00% pl SR

    After winning 3 on the bounce here handicap mark is now up to 92 but has won in the past off a high of 96 and what is the sire’s fav surface hopefully still a bit in hand. A strong traveller who doesn’t do much once in front so winning margins always small, Pat Smullen takes the ride and well drawn in 1, here’s hoping win number 4

    Staking £17.60 – 2% of £880.07

    Cheers
    Steve

    Steve Wiseman 26/01/17 10:47 PM Reply


  • Huntingdon 3.00 Cl2 25F
    History:
    2016 Taj Badalandabad 6 10-10 12/1 David Pipe Tom Scudamore 132
    2014 Josies Orders 6 10-8 4/1 Jonjo O’Neill Maurice Linehan 131
    2012 Theologist 6 9-13 7/1 Dr Richard Newland Joshua Moore 129
    2011 Mr Moonshine 7 10-8 16/1 Sue Smith Henry Oliver 135
    So
    Youngster with low weight, possibility good price

    Clowdaw Cian (Best Collaterial speed figure) 16/1

    Ballyculla ( 10 YO but 1st X back Hurdling since Apr ’14, claiming jockey Greatrex; rides for dad; has A1 strike rate on flat, maybe the plot as horse carrying 2st less than normal) 25/1

    Clavis 26/01/17 11:08 PM Reply


  • Nice one at a decent price at Taunton in 2.15 is Galros Lady – favs look totally exposed and tip has excellent P2P form so no stamina concerns and hated soft last time out, Vaughan yard back in form after a very quiet spell and a few quid on from me at 12/1 each way.

    Ian 27/01/17 9:01 AM Reply


  • going to doncaster races today, got £6 @ 30 to 1 on PETAL. nice it it wins.

    pendrem 27/01/17 9:59 AM Reply


  • SkyBet trends/stats etc.. http://racingtoprofit.co.uk/2017/01/27/skybet-chase-trendsstatspointers/

    Josh 27/01/17 10:10 AM Reply


  • just a quick visit this week been “busy” so agree Behind The Wire, Baraza and also with Ian on Galros Lady who is back on favoured good ground and who got a big positive on the win figures from me. G/L all may all come back safe human and equine off to work again aaaaarrrrggggggghhhh!!

    Matthew Roberts 27/01/17 10:30 AM Reply


  • Re Sam England

    It’s a shame that everyone (including the bookies) will know the game now. You could see from her first few runners (and with the jockey history) that she was set up to make it as a trainer. My guess is she has a real affinity with horses, which is why she got a great tune out of some old Class 5 rogues and plodders as a jockey.

    This is a perfect illustration of one way you can load up on a few extra winners – spot something no one (or not many) else does before it becomes obvious.

    All that said…by the prices on Pettal (and going by Alzammaar earlier in the week) there are still going to be some opportunities.

    Note that Manwell got hammered…and won. Alzammaar didn’t…and ran a cracker.

    The point?

    Early results suggest (although early to be drawing entirely accurate conclusions) that you shouldn’t be scared of wading in on a high price runner on its potential to outrun what it’s done before …although we should also recognise that 1. Alzammaar had some great/good class earlier form too/was bought from Greatrex for £20k and 2. Manwell is a Gold Well offspring with some reasonable point form and running in a poorish class 5 3. Cabragh is by Old Vic (with Satco in the line too) and every chance it would perform well in around 3m chases…and also had some reasonable early point form.

    So Pettal?

    Out of Indian Danehill…another one that can turn up a nice one.
    The problem (if there is one) is that Pettal has shown nothing yet so we’re totally blind other than the sire. The yard is not one that posts anything useful on Twitter or the website pre-race (yet, anyway). No sales data available.

    Steve 27/01/17 10:55 AM Reply


    • Cheers Steve… well the easiest way in with this one is fact it makes handicap debut, (now 3/4) which has been a common trait of the steamers, and none of them have shown anything previously, quite deliberately. Mainly as they are probably chasers, and have certainly been running over too short a trip in novice hurdles/wrong ground sometimes..the MO seems to be to get a handicap mark based on novice hurdles runs, before sending them into a handicap chase, in theory with a bucket load in hand where they can rack up a couple of wins, and make a few quid. Given that is fairly obvious now given recent winners, I found it a surprise Pettal was put in at 25s, 28s generally. There will come a time when that type is put in at 12s,10s..but, if they do have loads in hand, that could still be a value price moving forwards if many of those types are backed to 4s etc.

      We shall see. A yard to watch for sure and there will be some nice priced winners. Backing them all blind probably isn’t a bad approach, given if she is a horsewoman first, she will conjure up some out of the blue results with moderate horses, probably by finding the key at home, changing training routines, bits, etc etc.

      You don’t want a lot to go with on paper with these ones, I think that is why many are put in at silly prices, not much thinking outside of the box from the bookies odds compilers.

      I had a nibble at 28s and we shall see.

      Josh 27/01/17 11:14 AM Reply


      • Yep good point. Today may be the deciding factor on whether all future hcap debutants go in at lower prices. Will be interesting to watch…and being on at 28s or higher is a great place to be irrespective of how this one goes. Sadly I left it overnight and won’t play now unless I can get 25 at least on BF. I hope it wins for everyone else…but (and I apologise) a little part wants to see it stuffed and we can fill our boots next time. Actually I would/should have backed it earlier just on the sire (with trainer being a massive added bonus). Fortunately I managed to get on Manwell early in the morning before it snowballed, so missing this one won’t be too painful (though they all hurt when you miss a winner right?…but you have to be philosophical and we all know the next one is just round the corner…if you can hold your nerve!)

        Steve 27/01/17 11:53 AM Reply


        • Ah well I missed Manwell, so hopefully we can swap positions now!! missing big priced winners always knocks a chunk of your punting soul, and sadly I can count such types on more than one hand this jumps season I think! best for me not to dwell on that for too long.

          Josh 27/01/17 12:07 PM Reply


          • If you’re going to follow Mrs England I would suggest class 1-4 oct-may 50s or less and go ew on the class 1-3 and don’t let prices put you off.

            James b 27/01/17 12:36 PM Reply


  • Bendomingo 1.25 Don. currently 7/1
    Although has yet to show it…..I have it top of my ratings & with young T Humphreys claiming 7lb, who has a 50% strike rate over the period.
    has to be in with a good shout.
    16 runners….why no 4th place?

    tonymc 27/01/17 11:09 AM Reply


    • Lough Salt a NR so only 15 left

      Matt Johnson 27/01/17 12:08 PM Reply


    • sky bet 5 places

      David walker 27/01/17 12:33 PM Reply


  • Zaru is screaming at me at current odds 1.55 Don. Have a look at previous approx 3m chase form (2 runs at Newcastle).

    Last runs could be interpreted as being laid out for this – last time over hurdles a sweetener? Before that 2m too short? (although jockey reported never travelling… and has won over 2 before).

    They (trainer/owner quote) say he likes Newcastle. More testing than Doncaster but both flat left hand galloping. Has run over 2m3 at Doncaster and got stuffed but that was FTO. Other than that seems versatile on distances.

    The rest don’t look as if there are any worldbeaters, and if we ignore that last 2m run (or if they’ve sorted out whatever was wrong, if anything) there would have to be a chance Lucy Alexander could make all and run them into the ground…with a small doubt on that track stiffness point. It may be that Doncaster would be too easy.

    Sire Laveron, Sue Smith has done well with chase offspring and there have been a few nice types.

    33-1 (higher on BF) seems reasonable to take a chance and find out. If he can do what Notwhatiam did for me yesterday you will hear the cheers from Leicester 200 miles away!

    Steve 27/01/17 12:20 PM Reply


    • I would personally be surprised if Zaru took this, he just looks out of form to my eye and I can’t see why he would suddenly bounce back. I would like to think one of the 4 younger ones, under 10, is taking this. Market ‘can’ be a guide for the Ewart yard, 1/50,19p in handicap chases those going off bigger than 12/1 SP. But, if you like him, don’t let me put you off, I may have him very wrong! cue romping to victory.

      Josh 27/01/17 12:28 PM Reply


      • We’ll see….maybe NTO if they can find a race at Newcastle will be when we really want to be on it.

        Aside from this forgot to mention Quarenta (2.55) as one to watch for future. Voix Du Nord runner with a £38k purchase price, will be much better than it’s shown.

        Top 3 in the betting need no comment, claims are obvious. 4th in betting (The Groove) is with Fergal O’Brien who has a reasonable record with those he takes on from others (and got this one from David Loder after one bumper run, ran no good but you would expect has ability).

        By all common sense that would leave Quarenta running for 5th. JJ O’Neill probably knows what he’s got…so is either pitching it against some smart types to get it hammered with an eye on a later win….or know’s what he’s got and is unleashing it now.

        I’ll go for the first of those and let’s hope it runs OK but gets beat a long way and we’ll collect in a couple of runs time. At likely 100+ on BF it’s worth £2…possible play on 4th but suspect odds will only be around 7 or 8 at a guess for first 4 finish. That would need one of the others to underperform, but not impossible. Too short though for anything more than an interest bet, but I think worth watching.

        Steve 27/01/17 12:45 PM Reply


        • was right only saw around 8 maximum for Quarenta first 4…and it’s duly ballsed up the price for ever against three good’uns.

          Oh well, on to the next!

          Steve 27/01/17 2:56 PM Reply


      • Next time 🙂

        Steve 27/01/17 2:01 PM Reply


  • There’s another one of those Henry Brooke pacesetters you were talking about the other day Josh.

    Nick Mazur 27/01/17 3:04 PM Reply


    • Yep, previously held up- he is so good from the front! Did I back that one at monster odds, nope. Unexposed, handicap chase debut, multiple point winner. Signs were there, if you bothered looking. Alas I did not!
      Out front and going your own pace always the best place to be in a chase, proven again.

      Josh 27/01/17 3:26 PM Reply


      • (albeit tactics didn’t make a difference there, had loads in hand against that bunch. Even managed to walk through the last fence, shocking really, you don’t want to see horses fall but no way should a horse be able to walk through a fence, not sure if he even jumped. But, if money is down and you see Brooke circling near the front it may be a sign, possible back to lay opps for him I suppose, knowing he likes to be aggressive, usually)

        Josh 27/01/17 3:30 PM Reply


  • Weston has one with a similar profile to Ypsilanti (straight into a handicap chase from a maiden hurdle) tomorrow…Celtic Park (210U). Dunno about any point form. Interesting to see what price it opens, and how it goes for a trainer with a profitable chase record from a very small number of runners since he’s started.
    Paul

    blueboy199 27/01/17 3:44 PM Reply


  • Keep an eye on Markov in the next at Doncaster. This is another that will be better over hurdles than shown so far. Had to battle for its bumper and expect it has disappointed the yard so far over hurdles. Maybe the bumper took more out of it than was expected.

    Another one we wouldn’t want to run well against some nice opposition (Henderson and Nicholls) and mess up the big pot later, but wouldn’t be surprised to see this go the ‘wrong’ way.

    Steve 27/01/17 4:25 PM Reply


    • …and we’re on a roll so attention turns to an old rogue who keeps inexplicably letting me down – Master Bond. Good run a few runs back at big odds, one day he’s going to do it again. Been 50s all day but looks to be shortening a little. Seriously anything could win this, Seaforth worth watching too

      Steve 27/01/17 4:40 PM Reply


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