FREE DAILY POST: 26/01/17 (complete)

TIPS… Gowran stats/trends/ shortlist, + micro angles…+ Horse of Interest 14/1…

Summary

There is some rambling, Chelt Ante Post pointers post, Tips in the 3pm Gowran, micro systems/angles, Gowran stats, and a 14/1 shot of interest to my eyes, right at the end..

 

**

Some sad news to report, and I am sincere here.. following further discussions over email our friend Jim has been removed from my email list at his request and has informed me he will no longer be reading the blog. While I did indicate that would be best for us all, given the exchanges we had,everyone is always welcome if they can accept the way things are from here on in. (ie, do not expect a free post every single day)  He wished us well in our future endeavours. I don’t anticipate we will ever hear from him again. Albeit you never know, he may not be able to stay away 🙂

While the phrase ‘good riddance’ may spring to mind it isn’t my overriding emotion. I find it disappointing that having been reading regularly for over two years I could not convince him that a) what in effect was a £10 donation during Cheltenham week was a fair deal or not too much to ask or  b) that not reading during that one week of no free access should be an acceptable way forward, if you did not wish to pay, given the amount of free content available during the rest of the year.  It is true, you cannot please all the people all the time. We fundamentally disagreed on a point of principle and it is apparent that we have a very different view on life I think.

Anyway, that sorry episode is now behind us. (and please, no comments on that episode, we should move on now)

***

I am now free to focus on tipping donkeys. Butlergrove King will hack up one day although I may be a crumpled body at the bottom of a cliff when that day does arrive. Truly awful.

With that in mind…

***

CHELTENHAM: ANTE POST BETS

As requested by some of you I have created a post whereby you can all discuss your Ante Post facies for the Festival. There are a few interesting comments already.

You can chip in with your thoughts HERE>>> (that post will live in the Free Reports&Systems tab, for ease of reference)

 

**

What a rubbish day…

I mean, you don’t really want to hear about it but me going out for my friends Bday last night has turned into an expensive experience… so, not only did I tip a donkey in Butlergrove King, watching tips run like that is always disheartening (‘Josh, you should be used to that by now’, yes yes) but this morning I woke up and had a look at my TTP Members stats selections.

You see, they have a habit of finding big priced winners. Last night Major Ridge was 33s in places and 25s generally. I was out. I had no idea. Recent advice has been to back all horses on the stats 20/1 or bigger- there have been over 10 of those this season now. Gulp. When I got around this morning he was 10s generally, and I had no idea he had been so big for a long period, the evening before. I had a brief look and thought 10s wasn’t overly generous given his 0/13 career stats. He was a ‘non ratings pointer’ horse. But he was lightly raced I suppose, 3rd run of the season, trainer in a bit better form. He had been held up before, but this time they made all. Clever. He hacked up. Not carrying a penny.

It seems  a few members had a nibble at big prices which makes up for me missing him, a little bit! Always annoying. (oh, and i failed to back another 25/1 winner from the stats on Saturday. One day I will master my own sodding Members Posts 🙂 )

We move on… (that has happened before, and will happen again!)

 

***

 

TIPS

3.00 Gowran 

JETSTREAM JACK -1 point win 10/1 (general) UP/Fell late

MONTYS MEADOW – 1 point win 10/1 (geenral) UP

Well, that didn’t go as well as Sunday’s unofficial advice. Not sure of the winner was ever headed. Got a run for my money to a point, both looking like being threatening before fading tamely. Bonny Kate ran well for the shortlist, that was about it. 

 

Well I decided to get off the fence, remove the splinters, and tip in this race. Being out of form or at times lacking in confidence isn’t really a sound approach especially when I have faith in the stats/trends/winning profile approach below. It is clear that I should probably play in Ireland more often as some of their races appear to have strong pointers, such as Sunday. You can all keep me on my Irish toes and let me know a few days before, if there are any big handicaps I should be looking at!

The below approach is the one I attacked Cheltenham with last year. Following that Festival I said to myself if Gordon Elliot (Diamond King 10/1) or Davvy Russell (Mall Dini 25/1>14/1) are ever associated with a ‘winning profile’ shortlist horse again at the Festival, I will just back them. Those two winners would have made for quite the week and they were both in shortlists of 4/5 from memory.

So, we have Jetstream Jack. It is quite straightforward. He ticks the main stats that stood out to me, is trained by Elliot, ridden by Russel, he is a bet. Clearly it isn’t the Festival, but it is a ‘target handicap’. Thankfully he happens to be a double figure price also! He is unexposed over fences, has some decent form to his name and you have to assume in these big races, from this yard, that it has probably been the target. He was held up the last day and never really put into it. We shall see. I had to go with him really, given my mental scares.

Montys Meadow… Well the only negative for this one is the jockey I think, I would have liked a bigger name- they may well have wanted Russel on, so again that may be a tick for Jetstream above. But, the horse has a perfect profile really, no chinks against any of the main stats that I can see. When he completes he is very consistent and is totally unexposed at the trip. He has raced prominently in the past and the pace maps suggest you want to be up there around this track. Likewise Jetstream can be handy, if desired. The trainer has won this race before also, which caught the eye. So, again, at a double figure price, why not have a go!

At least you know the method to my madness, and you can jump aboard or not. No Butlergrove pin jobs here!

Of the rest..

Well Bonnie Kate is a clanger- will I throw some change at her just in case. Hmmm. The run at Navan LTO is a slight neg, as is having won over 3m4f or further. She stays very well, but there is a possibility something has more toe near the end. There is also a possibility she makes all. Meade seems to be going through a resurgence which is nice to see. So, maybe I should ignore his 0/8,0p in this race, given his awful stats for Sunday’s race that he put to bed. He may be one to watch at the Festival. He trained Very Wood I think, and that has fond memories. A suspect he has a few lined up for there.

There isn’t much I can say to put you off her albeit I think the two selections have a bit more of the ‘could be anything’ quality about them.

Wounded Warrior would be heartbreak at 28s, on the shortlist. I am used to that feeling sadly. Fox has never ridden for Meade from what I can see and I would have thought one of his more regular pilots would have been on. The horse is also in poor form and hasn’t shown enough for me in two runs this season. I know the last race was the Lexus, but even so, that was a laboured effort. They put first time CP on him LTO, I assume for a reason. They didn’t work. They are retained today. He does have some smart novice form. I wonder if he has some sight on Cheltenham, and it would be nice if he dropped a few pounds (3rd in the RSA in 2015) I hope he doesn’t win today. Maybe I should just ignore recent form and go with him at that price, this race does throw up biggies. But I have left him. Gulp.

Rogue Trader..well I don’t want to take a single figure price in a race like this really. He has a chance.  A couple of negs, inc joint bottom weight. And he is usually held up out the back, which isn’t idea around here. If you like the price though, not much I can say to deter you. We shall see if any of the reserves get in. Mullins fav, currently a reserve, falls down on a few of the stats and in any case at that price is worth taking on.

I think that will be all. I have not gone through every runner in detail. In part that is the point of such an approach as this. In ‘target races’, second guessing recent form or the plan of connections, can be a bit fruitless. This approach has worked enough times for me to stick with it over time.

Good luck with whatever you fancy.

***

The ‘winning profile‘ below for the big races leaves…

Wounded Warrior – UP

Jetstream Jack – hasn’t run at track,slight neg – Fell (when struggling)

Montys Meadow – trainer has won race before – UP

Bonny Kate – ran Navan LTO a slight neg – 3rd

Rogue Trader – no run at track a slight neg, also joint bottom weight, a neg- PU

..Plus two reserves..

Sambremont – no run at track.

Texas Jack –

 

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Jumps Angles

K Lee Chasers (12/1<)

2.00 War – Incentivise (x2 angles) PU (he is fine thankfully,went amiss)

 

Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live Test

2.00 War – Incentivise (#9) (12/1<) PU

 

Handicap Chase/Hurdle Portfolio- Live Test

2.35 War – Moidore- UP

 

***

Bonus…

Thyestes Handicap Chase

Winning Profile…?

  • Ran Class 1 LTO (running same class, up1 or up2 from last run, so raced G1,2,3 LTO) 
  • Ran within the last 60 days
  • 1-5 runs this season
  • 1-10 handicap runs
  • 1-3 chase wins 
  • 0-2 handicap wins
  • Ran over fences LTO (chase, not hurdle) 

 

 

**

Thyestes Handicap Chase

10 years : 10/176, 40 places horses

Note:

18/20 ran 16-60 days ago

  • 1-15 Days: 1/50,7p
  • 61+ : 0/22,1p
  • One winner down as having ‘no run’, prob first UK/Irish run.

CHECKLIST

TRENDS

Previous Place

  • Not much but of note 5/10 failed to complete LTO (PU,BD,Fell)

Days Since Run

  • 10/10 ran 16-60 days ago

Horse Weight

  • 6/10 carried 10-7 or less before claims
  • 3/16,6p carried 11-6 +.
  • 10-8-11-5 : 1/67, 15 places

Season Runs

  • 10/10 had 1-5 runs this season
    • 6+ : 0/21,4p

Maximum Distance Winners Had WON Over

  • Had won over 3m4f+ : 0/26, 6p

***

OTHER STATS

Miscellaneous 1

Pos Wgts (ex Clm) –

  • Clear Top or Second : 3/19,7p…+17 SP
  • Clear/Joint Bottom: 0/14,2p

‘The ‘Running’ Characteristics’

H- Run (Hncp/Non Hncp)

  • 10/10 had 1-10 handicap runs
  • 11+ : 0/54, 8p

H- RUN (Hncp NH Race Type) 

  • 0 handicap chase runs: 0/12,2p

H- Run (track))

  • 9/10 had run at track before
    • Had not: 1/59, 13p

The ‘Winning’ Characteristics

H-Win (Career)

  • 7+ : 0/17,2p

H-Win (NH Race Type).

  • 10/10 had 1-3 chase wins
    • 0/20,4p had 4+
    • 0: 0/7,2p

H-Win (Hncp/Non)

  • 10/10 had 0-2 handicap wins
    • 3+ : 0/31, 5 p

H-Win (Hcap NH)

  • 3+ : 0/17,3p

Miscellaneous 2

Class Move

  • 10/10 running at same class or moving up 1 or 2 only (so G1,G2,G3 LTO?…)
  • (I need to get my head around what these means for Irish Class)
  • Up 3+ : 0/72, 12 places

Distance Move

  • 7/10 : up 0.5f,Same,down 1, 1.5f since last run

H-Places (NH Race type)

  • 9/10 had 2-5 places in chases (inc wins)
    • 1: 0/8,2p
    • 6+ : 1/60 , 9p

Horses ‘Last Race’ Characteristics

(LR)-last run – NH Race Type

  • 10/10 ran over fences LTO
    • Hurdle: 0/39, 6 p

(LR) Race Class (inc Irish)

  • 10/10 ran in Class 1 LTO
    • C2 or lower: 0/66, 12 p

(LR) Grp/Grd/Lst

  • Non Major: 0/66,12p
  • Listed: 0/6,0p

(LR) Track

  • Leopardstown: 5/70,20p
  • 1 each: Thurles/Chepstow/Limerick/Aintree/Newbury
  • Fairy: 0/15, 1p
  • Navan: 0/15, 3p
  • Cork: 0/,8p
  • Punch: 0/22,5p

Trainers (of interest)

  • W Mullins: 4/30, 10p
  • O’Leary: 2/3,2p
  • 1 win: Burke/Mangan/Gilligan/Hughes
  • Meade: 0/8,0p (albeit he was 0/33,0p in hurdle he won on Sunday!)
  • Elliot: 0/9,3p

**

Finally.. OF INTEREST…

1.20 Gowran – Tidy Zig UP 14s generally… caught the eye when flicking through the cards using Geegeez Instant expert tab. He has no track experience but ticks all the other boxes of ground, class, trip when many others in here do not, on evidence to date. He is also 5lb below his last winning mark , before you take off the jockeys 7lb. Yes he is 12 but he is lightly raced and had 16 months of before this season. His last run was decent enough and suggested he may be ready to win again in the near future. IF he were to return to some of his hurdles form back end 2013, early 2014, he could maybe win this quite well. Anyway, with 4 places, I have had a small EW nibble to find out. Far from confident but you never know!

Well, he was last all the way round, never really going- his best form is in soft/heavy,well, on what he has done in his career. I am not sure if there is any soft in that ground or not but if that race is anything to go by it is a bit suicidal holding one up, as the front 3rd don’t look like coming back to you, unless you have a load of class/loads in hand.  He was last all the way round really, no run for my muggy £5 EW. Moving on. There is probably a reason I don’t venture over the water that often. 

***

That is all for today…

Share on facebook
Facebook
Share on twitter
Twitter
Share on pinterest
Pinterest
Share on linkedin
LinkedIn
Share on telegram
Telegram

Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

29 Responses

  1. Was finally glad to back one of the outsiders on ttp at 33/1!

    John Butler saddles 3 in 2.10 Southwell,Plazon seems to be attracting support but the one that draws my attention is Waneen,formerly trained by Joeseph Tuite, trainer has a bit of a knack with other trainers horses, Zain Arion most recently.it is making its sand debut so that is an unknown.The positives is trainer is in fine form, and the booking of Robert Winston 3-5 for trainer
    If acting on surface might be value at 12/1 Bet365

  2. Hi Josh / All

    The stats done well today combining sire & trainer where appropriate worked well although most of the 5 winners where short, early prices where better in the main, a couple of 2nds 2 NR’s and a 13.5 winner for coming in 4th made it a good day oh and a best odds guaranteed winner for the “super sires” was much needed also, Back to busy tonight / tomorrow so just the 1 main sire selection to put up

    2.45 Southwell – Haraka 2.62 best odds Bet365/Coral/Betfair Sports/Marathon
    Fastnet Rock, 1M, Southwell, 13 runs, 6 wins, 9 pl 46.45% win SR, 69.23% pl SR

    Staking £17.82 – 2% of £897.89

    Good luck Everyone

    Cheers
    Steve

  3. Nice to get a double figure winner today, even if it was a little fortunate (although it actually helped the runner up more than ours). Three for me tomorrow.

    Firstly whilst he can be tricky to assess I think Spirit of Gondree is ready to strike in the 21:00 at Wolves. It was nice to see him dropped 2lbs for his 2nd over course and distance 6 days ago and he is now 4lbs below his last winning mark (also went close last October off 6lbs higher). The short break is a plus given he is 3/8, 4p when returning within 7 days. I think its also eye-catching that Bradley has booked Norton for the ride given he is his go to man at the track (7/27, 13p +29 in handicap at the track over the past 2 years) for his first and only ride tomorrow since his injury back in September. Norton was also on for his last win and has gone close 2 other times. Expecting a good run tomorrow.

    Moving on to Warwick (lets pray its on and I havent wasted 20 minutes of my evening writing this) I want to have a small e/w bet on Delgany Demon in the 14:35. It hasnt quite clicked for him over fences but due to his performances is now back 2lbs below his last winning hurdle mark. This is very much like last season where he had 4 chase runs before reverting to hurdles and winning. When interviewed back in October 2015 his trainer said he would be suited by a track like Warwick. He has a great record here in hurdles over the past 2 years going 5/12, 8p improving to 4/10, 7p with Whelan ridding. (including the 1st half of that lovely cross country double last April) . King also won this race last year. Court Frontier may very well do the same to this field as he did at Chepstow however Warwick doesn’t suit held up horses and at 14s I had to have a bet.

    I also want to have a small e/w bet in the last race on Mister Drifter. The form of his bumper 6th is working out well with the runaway winner now 2nd favourite for the Neptune. The second who was only 8 lengths ahead of the pick has since won a bumper easily and placed in a hurdle and 3rd has also placed NTO. The Pipe stable is coming back into some semblence of form with 4 winners from their last 15 runners. Surprisingly (given I wouldnt have thought of them as a bumper stable) you can actually follow Pipe/Scudamore blind in class 6 bumpers and come out in profit. Their record over the past 5 years reads 28/93, 48p +13.46. That actually improves to 4/6, 5p for those who are dropping in class. This one also gets cheekpieces which is also a plus (1/5, 4p). Obviously you have no idea what could be lurking here but another that will hopefully go well at a double figure price.

    1. Thanks and well done Nick with the 12/1 win with UDR yesterday, and the 20/1 3rd previous day that Sky Bet paid out in 7 runner race. Some well reasoned selections again today as always. Great work!!

      Chris R.

  4. We had a few winners last AW season from Marjorie Fife,but she hasn’t really been in any sort of form this year,Royal Holiday 3.55 Southwell is getting on now and may not have the legs to lead and stay theses days against younger opposition but at 20/1 he might be able to sneak a place and if a few run below par who knows

  5. Interested that Bonny Kate came through your stats profile, I’ve gone in at 12/1. This horse went off fav for the Irish National last year but ran no race. Withdrawn from the paddy power chase at Christmas as it wasn’t soft enough. The Horse it beat in Navan at the end of Nov, Noble Endeavour went on to win the paddy power chase. 3m 1f on Soft Ground this horse will show its a lot more than a 138 rated chaser. Also Ice Cold Soul holding off the Tony Martin brigade on Sunday helps the confidence, you can do it again Mr. Meade!!
    Others I liked were Champagne West and Montys Meadow (who also came through your stats profile)
    Enjoy the race!

    1. I backed Bonny Kate too @ 11/1, my slight worry is the ground. It hasn’t rained properly over here in almost 2 weeks. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if ground was changed later today to something closer to good/yielding
      Leopardstown was changed last Sun morning for example.
      I went in anyway as most of the field seem to want a bit of cut so the negative should be offset…..hopefully!

    2. Monty’s Meadow and Bonny Kate have been backed early…. I always have a yen for a Kate. My nan was a Kate lol fighting Kate and over the years anything with Kate in has brought me some winners, laughs and losses. Now that’s what you call a proper scientific approach…ha ha.

      1. Got a nice run for our money with Bonny Kate and had the winner (all be it for a lesser stake) .. apparently the ground dried up a good bit due to strong winds today. Would keep an eye on Bonny if it gets heavy for its next race.

        1. Yes Eion, I thought she was just a bit short at her fences and came over to steep which is the right way for heavier ground……She’s in my tracker.
          Should have gone with CW as well. famous last words.
          Pab had the winner too.
          BOL>

  6. doing 3 @ southwell
    1-05 Moojaned – ran in c5 lto back to c6 , won well in this class/course back in december, minimum stakes
    2-10 Waneen – only lost 3.5l in a c4 lto to Monumental Man who has been in quite good form recently
    3-20 – Suffragette City just because i’m a massive Bowie fan 🙂

  7. Goffs Thyestes Handicap Chase (Grade A) (5yo+)
    MONTYS MEADOW

    28Jan16, Thurles 20F Hy Ch 5K 11-12 1/6 (1½L, Arbre De Vie11-12) 5/2 Davy Russell RPR 136

    He deserved that and Davy said he´d have gone around again. This is definitely not a bad horse and has speed and stamina. Davy said he did quicken today and three miles will also be no problem for him – Jimmy Mangan, trainer of Montys Meadow

  8. I’m having a bet on Stun gun in the 3.55 mainly because he’s my favorite horse, also if he’s in the mood he can win this race! Also having a bet on Wizard slibah in the 1.25 not much value but if it wins il be happy enough anyway trainer and jockey have been having a great time recently.

  9. Hi Guys,as above jumped on the Bonny kate bandwagon myself,but just looked at the rain radar and it looks like the heavy rain that’s hitting the south wont reach Kilkenny and along with the very strong winds,i would think the ground will dry out if anything,having said that will be keeping a close eye on her when the going changes in the future.

    Also went with Ucello Conti,was 3rd in this last year and is back for another go off the same rating and will be carrying just 1lb more,a big plus for me is the jockey booking Daryl Jacob is in great form of late(8 wins/17 rides over the last 21 days).Gone for a small e/w on both and hopefully will get a run for my money,should be a cracker of a race no matter what the result.

    All the best with todays bets chaps.

    1. Good luck Robbie.. yep I failed to touch on Ucello and Prince of Scars- they only fall down by not having a chase in to their names, but they are very small stats indeed, and both of those tick every other box. I did look at them but went with the double figure priced ones. Should be an interesting race and they look to have solid chances for sure.

        1. Like Elliott, De Bromhead seems to have a real knack for getting horses back to their best. That horse went off at a crazy 7/4 for a Grade 3 at Cheltenham 12 months ago and fell apart from that run onwards and he seems to have brought him right back to his best.

          1. Sure i have secret,still testing,utill now i have from 33 % to 50 % strike with prices above 6/1,just one was 4/1
            I need to be free during races and place bet the best 30 min before off

  10. Back earlier than anticipated so thought I would have a wee study on the tapeta at Wolves and 3 of interest starting with the strongest

    8.00pm Night Poetry 2.82

    The stand out stat of the night is in combining trainer & sire Sea the stars 10,3,5 & C Appleby in 1M 1/2F class 5 maiden fillies at the track is 11,4,6 none of the other trainers have managed a win with this criteria, and the stable is flying with 3 winners at Meydan including a 1, 2 in the sprint….

    9.00pm Deeley’s Double 9.4

    Only had the 3 runs in maidens all here improving with every run and now in a class 6 handicap stepped up to 7F from last run where the sire Makfi has decent figs of 14,4,7 and the trainer in C&D class 6 handicaps is 25,7,13, I think there is value here. Danger could be Fire Diamond from the Dascombe team who also have good figs of 11,4,6 with the above criteria.

    7.00 Zakatal 12.0

    Seems overpriced to me has C & D form of 2,1,2 along with the trainer & sire with the win being in the same grade by 17L in a 3 runner affair has backed this up with 2 solid runs at Newcastle carrying over 10 stone, does have a Raiph Beckett shorty to beat but at the odds had a play and an EW treble

    Cheers
    Steve

  11. Well can you believe it Josh and all, had three for today but thought not going to post them up as I’ve been not in form (sorry), cos all three have come in. 1.05 my Renaissance (Bog) 6’s, 7.30 Hallstatt I got 9’s but R4 10p made it 8.10/1 and 8.00 Mumstheword got 7’s. Happy days if Poole master had of popped in that would of even nicer haha. The racing god’s have given me hope again 🙂

    1. Nice one Gavin, 3 nice winners there, Josh the amount of work, time & effort you put into each tipping race you deserve to be successful I’m sure the winners will start flowing soon they just have too

      Cheers
      Steve

      1. Oh they will I am not too concerned. Just need to ensure I don’t make amateur errors. The stats/trends races are what they are. It’s the ‘normal’ races I need to find more consistency. If/when I do find form at the odds I try and play at,its usually fruitful.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.