TTP Jumps Notes: 25/01/17 (complete)

1.The Ratings Pointers

2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

4.Any general messages/updates etc

***

1.The Ratings Pointers

HorseRaceBase

Top Rated

none.

Top 3

2.30 Catt- Italian Riviera – UP 5/1

4.10 Catt – Know Your Name- UP 11/1>7/1 (30p R4)

 

Geegeez Speed

None.

 

2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

CATTERICK

1.55

Major Ridge (hncp chase) WON  25s > 12/1>7/1

(i didn’t look at this until this morning- I have a feeling,having looked at Oddschecker,that he may have been available at 25s/33s last night/early this morning? Anyone have a nibble at a big big price? Sadly I didn’t. Hadn’t shown much but mark was dropping, 8th chase run, and change of tactics most important, ran him from the front and horse enjoyed it,3rd run of season. Damn) 

2.30

Italian Riviera (all hncps) UP

Thyne For Gold (all hncps + micro distance) UP

3.40

Roxyfet (hncp chase) UP

4.10

Know Your Name (all hncps) UP

 

LUDLOW

2.50

Champagne Chaser (all hncps) 14 3rd 12/1

Shambougg (hncp hurdle) UP

 

BONUS

3.25 L – Windmill- UR

 

3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

There are no 20/1+ shots at present and in any case none of the non-ratings pointers horses leap out at me, at their current odds. They all seem to have a major question or two to answer to my eye, having had a brief look, but we shall see. I am not playing on any of them and will just watch with interest.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

RESULTS UPDATE END Week 17

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

18 Comments

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  • VICENTE
    Paul Nicholls stated on the Morning Line that the target was the Grand National. 33/1
    Fell FTO (after7 months off) at Newbury 26 Nov ’16
    Given a careful ride, Sam Twiston Davies, 6th, Chepstow 27 Dec ’16, adequate SF
    Entered Sat Doncaster 3.40 Sky Bet H/C Chase, 24F
    Skybet 14/1
    or NRNB 11/1
    Only bookie currently paying 5 places

    I do not expect the GN 33/1 to be available after Sat.

    Clavis 24/01/17 9:36 PM Reply


    • If the GN is the target than I would be shocked if does anything Saturday other than a stroll around Donny to keep him fit. He is rated 149 which is plenty for him to get in the Grand National so they won’t do anything to risk that going up before the weights are announced next month. Certainly one to keep a close eye on and without doing any sort of research if I was an AP bettor would certainly consider the 33s for the GN.

      nickmazur 25/01/17 5:10 PM Reply


  • I should mention that Vicente is also entered for the BetBright Trial Cotswold Chase (Grade 2) (CLASS 1) 2.15 Sat. Cheltenham 40/1, but I am not expecting a run as Thistlecrack & Co are entereed.

    Clavis 24/01/17 9:59 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh

    I’ve signed up to the members area after following on and off for a year or so. I’ve been meaning to sign up for a few weeks as I’ve been trying to make HRB pay for me and I’ve found out how hard that can be. It was actually the Jim posts yesterday tipped me over the edge into becoming a member so every cloud and all that!! The irony of all his ranting about Cheltenham was that you even showed him how to get it all for free and he still wasn’t happy.

    A quick question if I may. Are the free tips included in the all qualifiers results or are they recorded separately? Apologies if this is covered elsewhere, I should really be doing to some work right now so didn’t have time to look too far.

    As I typed this Major ridge just landed in the 1.55 so that’s the first month paid for!! Keep ’em coming!

    Jamie 25/01/17 2:14 PM Reply


    • Hi Jamie,
      haha. Every cloud indeed! yep there were in effect two free options…1 use clickbank and just get a refund, no problem, or 2 use HRB free trial and make an effort to input the system rules yourself. You can’t please all the people sadly.

      Firstly… do read the welcome note you should have received in a welcome email, when you get a moment.

      The best way to answer that question is to say that I judge the success of the Members Club content on the performance of backing all ‘Ratings Pointers’ horses above (section 1) and backing all qualifiers (section 2) And you should personally judge it on whatever strategy you decide to employ. I publish the results etc every week, so that can try and help you work out a best approach.

      For many that is following the ratings pointers and then dabbling in bigger priced horses in section 2. Looks like I missed a monster for Hammond, 25s -33s last night, early morning- sadly I was out last evening! Damn. You will have to get used to missing the odd winner (whatever strategy you go for, unless you just back all in section 2- which is profitable) and missing plenty of losers, whatever strategy you may use. That is part of the game.

      The aim is to have some fun and for this content to be profitable for you over time, however you use it.

      Content in the Free Posts, which everyone can read, including tips, isn’t part of my assessment of the members club! While my ‘tipping’ which is mainly restricted to 3m+ chases is profitable, it is a very bumpy ride at times, with plenty of shockers!

      No content on the free posts is included in any results for these members posts. Those results are recorded separately and I do need to update them.

      Josh

      Josh 25/01/17 3:29 PM Reply


  • Yep got Major Ridge @ 33/1 last night on betfair Sportsbook Josh

    hallio1 25/01/17 2:33 PM Reply


    • Oh well. Was that across the board? or 25s widely available? As if so I may record that at a bigger price if it was one everyone could have got all last night/early this morning.

      Going out for drinks for a friends Bday last night has been rather costly to my own personal bank balance there! I would like to think had I looked at him priced 25s I would have backed him, and said so in the notes. Just need one of those to be in the ratings pointers!!

      As it happens I thought 8s, 10s this morning not overly generous given his 0/7,1p chase stats- but he was lightly enough raced- that tactic of making all with a horse when out of form, having been held up (those two are linked obvs,esp if getting the mark down) previously has happened a few times in recent weeks from memory.

      Anyway, I am glad you used the info to make that bet, that’s what it is all about.
      Josh

      Josh 25/01/17 3:21 PM Reply


      • Cheers Josh – think bfsb were the first to go up and I only had chance to check the selections at that point so glad I did 🙂

        hallio1 25/01/17 5:52 PM Reply


  • Got 33s with Hills last night on Major Ridge .

    geoffwylde 25/01/17 4:21 PM Reply


  • Not like me to miss the big price runners. But that’s exactly what I did Josh….Rushing out to pick up from the airport I scrolled to fast and ended up on Italian Riviera as the first selection. DUH!
    What do they say ‘less haste more speed’, still it was my fault and my fault alone…..Pig sick again….but get over it. Gawd!.

    Well done everyone else who took the price.

    tonymc 25/01/17 4:25 PM Reply


    • the term bollocks comes to mind doesn’t it! Yep I was out, didn’t look at any horses from about 5 last night through to around 8.30 ish this morning (I may have had a rare lay in, given the birthday beers with friends!)
      That was an expensive error! But, you have to learn to cope with those sadly, i have missed some in the past, i will miss some again in the future. Were he 25s this morning I am confident I would have had a nibble. We should take confidence that the stats do find 20/1+ winners. That must be 10 or 11 now this season.

      As long as a few got on that makes me feel better!

      Josh 25/01/17 4:38 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh…… I think that using any means other than BFSP to record your bets is misleading and generally not accepted by most punters as an accurate assessment of the true performance of any advisory service. Don’t get me wrong I’m not criticising your action as I am well up so far, although I have only put money on about a third of your ratings selections as a lot of them are clearly not value bets.

    I’ll not go into the detail as to how I determine as to which ones are of interest and those that are not here as it’s not relevant, but the number of poor services that claim a profit by trawling the market for BOG offers and early prices that you have next to no chance of getting a tenner on never mind a decent bet is staggering.

    IMHO you don’t need to dress it up any you just need to remind folks that finding the value is the only way to profit in the long term irrespective of the methods/services you use for finding them.

    Tim

    Tim 25/01/17 4:49 PM Reply


    • Hi Tim,
      thanks for your message…

      I would like to think long term readers/members would attest that I am very fair when it comes to recording prices.. I try to record prices that are generally available across a handful of what I would call ‘highstreet bookies’ and that the price is available for a long time- hence my question as to Major Ridge, and you will see I have put that in at 25s, not 33s which two readers certainly got at WH and Betfair Sportsbook – I can’t get 25p on with them most of the time so don’t tend to use them as an official barometer.

      I am always happy to be challenged on a price of any horse I declare but can assure you, if in doubt, I go for the shortest price. I have done that on numerous occasions so far this season. There is no attempt to pull wool over anyones eyes here.

      IF we have found a truly value approach, BFSP is not a good measure is it? Because that is the SP, and therefore you never beat it, you never get value? The BFSP is the starting price that the market deems the horse should be? Or have I read that wrong? If a service does find value, morning prices say should beat BFSP as a return, over time?

      There is one reader who is keeping detailed records to BFSP and I am in discussions with him moving forward as it was an impressive looking spreadsheet. I am conscious I should probably start recording to BFSP but at the same time I do stress keeping your own results, based on what prices you get/your approach.

      You are then free to vote with your eyes/wallets at that point, if it isn’t working for you.

      Value is in the eye of the beholder. I have to judge this service on all selections being backed in section 1 and section 2. But I am pleased you are avoiding losers and using the info in a way that suits your approach. That is what this is about really, what I hope is quality information.

      I agree with your general point about other services and those sharp practices of what prices they declare etc. I do not put myself anywhere near the same parish as some of those. That is despicable behaviour.

      Remember, there really is no benefit in me recording fake/inflated profits. Ok, I get some members sign up. After a short time they soon realise they are not getting on at ‘advised’ prices, dont make a profit, and unsubscribe. I am interested in long term relationships, and integrity and honesty is at the heart of that.

      Josh

      p.s always happy to hear members approach to sifting through the information provided.

      Josh 25/01/17 5:03 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh…… I have to disagree with you regards BFSP and it being a true test for value. It is a 100% book so it accurately reflects punters expectations of all the runners in the race. The ‘Litmus test’ for services is to be able to beat punters expectations consistently in the long term by winning more often than the market says they should and BFSP is the most accurate yardstick we can use.

    Events surrounding early prices and BOG offers are mutually exclusive from the actual bet. Using the ‘Major Ridge’ example it’s like trying to assess two potential bets in the sense of….. 1) will I be able to get on at the 25/1 that I believe may be available in some places, but may not be if I’m either too late or the bookie offering it won’t take my money, AND…… 2) will the horse go on to win the race.

    I don’t doubt your integrity when it comes to recording your results, I was just thinking of the regard that most serious punters have toward services that use early prices and BOG offers to substantiate the profitability of their services.

    I also don’t have a problem with sharing my methods for determining where the value lies in the selections, but was trying to stay on topic cos if I go into that I would end up with an awful long post. Having said that I have three easy to apply rules that are undeniably objective that I apply to every bet, (my own too), that need to be satisfied before I’ll even consider the bet as possibly being a valid opportunity for long term profit.

    I think that putting a spreadsheet of all the bets posted is an excellent idea and would assist every one as regards how best to use the information, especially if it contains both bookies and BFSP returns as users will always have the choice as to how they prefer to bet and demonstrates transparency on your part.

    They also might be surprised as to how much extra they will pick up on B/F when a selected horse has low market expectations as to its true chance of winning.

    Tim

    Tim 25/01/17 5:59 PM Reply


    • Hi Tim,
      All valid points well made. My Betfair comments were more questions than statements.
      I agree that BFSP is the only price that everyone can get, and that is noted. I suppose then that is the truest reflection of whether bets are performing above market expectation.

      Equally I do think widely available early prices is still a valid measure and an indication of whether an approach beats SP consistently and whether the approach is any good at spotting over priced horses. I suppose more information the better.

      I will have a ponder on how I record results moving forward. I agree with your points on that front.
      Well, I don’t really disagree with anything you have said really it seems, as I ponder further.
      Josh

      Josh 25/01/17 6:19 PM Reply


    • Tim, just wondering if you follow any other tipping services that are consistently profitable at BFSP? I could do with one of those.

      Thanks !

      Neil 25/01/17 9:07 PM Reply


      • Hi Neil…. I’m not a big fan of ‘tipping services’ per se, but I do read other blogs besides Josh’s and determine as to whether I believe there is value to be had depending upon the strength of the case put forward by the proponent and as to whether the horse concerned meets the rules I mentioned earlier.

        I’d say about 80% of the bets I place are my own selections which obviously fit within the parameters I set for the bets I pick up from third party sources. The fact that you are asking me if I know of any profitable BFSP services kind of strengthens my argument that most serious punters disregard the claims made by services that can’t profit to BFSP.

        I use B/F for all my bets now cos I got sick and tired of having to punt around to get a decent stake on in the end. It’s just a matter of time and you will find yourself having to ‘negotiate’ with bookies over every bet if you are making a profit in the long term.

        25/1 about 7/1 SP shots is great whilst it lasts but in this age of instant information it don’t take long for the bookies to nobble you.

        Tim

        Tim 26/01/17 12:57 PM Reply


  • hi josh
    i think BFSP is average of all prices that were available

    pendrem 25/01/17 6:11 PM Reply


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