TTP Jumps Notes: 24/01/17 (complete)

1.The Ratings Pointers

2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

4.Any general messages/updates etc

**

1.The Ratings Pointers

HorseRaceBase

Top Rated

none.

Top 3

3.30 Weth- Wells De Lune- UP

 

Geegeez Gold 

Top Rated

none.

Top 3

3.30 Weth – Easy Street – UP

 

2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

LEICESTER

3.50 – Hill Fort (micro distance) UP 8/1>6/1

 

WETHERBY

3.30

Wells De Lune (hncp chase) UP

Easy Street (micro distance) UP

 

3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

Hill Fort isn’t a ‘monster’ price but out of the three above is the only one being backed! The two ratings pointers are on the drift which would indicate the painful recent run for the RPs isn’t ending soon.

Anyway, Hill Fort looks to have an ok chance to my eye. All conditions are fine and he is 2lb below his mark when hacking up at Chepstow last April. He has been mixing it in class 3s since. I don’t think he stays beyond a stiff 16f, so a combination of 19f in heavy probably did for him LTO and on OR he is now the best horse in this race, a slight drop in grade for him. He travelled well enough for a long way LTO. So, he does look interesting,albeit not a massive price, but decent. I wouldn’t be shocked if he ran the best race out of the three.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

RESULTS UPDATE END Week 17

 

Cheltenham Festival... to note..

  • You can download/read/ignore last year’s 82 page stats/trends pack HERE>>> (I forget what I charged for this last year but it wasn’t free) 
  • I will be producing something similar for this season- and you good Members will get that for free.  I like to focus on the handicaps primarily and use the ‘winning profile’ for each race to home in on a working shortlist. I am usually useless at pointing you towards the winner from that list, but they did find 8/10 handicap winners last year. (think I found two of them,one at 20s, +8 points on the week or so) There are also the trainer micro angles and I will start looking at those this week, to see what we can dig up. They can be good fun to follow also.
  • There will be ‘Cheltenham Special’ members posts I think. In the TTP guide the Cheltenham stats deliberately exclude the March meeting. I will see if there is a ‘festival profile’ as such but i will be focusing on highlighting the shortlists for handicaps plus the odd other races. Rather oddly I have picked 2 out of the last 3 Albert Bartlett winners, at 50/1 and 9/1- both of those turned into a bog which is probably why. And I will post qualifiers from any micro angles that make the cut.
  • At this moment I am very close to deciding that there will be no free content during the Cheltenham week, and probably that Saturday also. In 2015 I needed the Midlands National winners to get me out of a hole! That doesn’t affect you as you are a member, and as such will have access. But for non-members they may have to pay around £10.

Anyway, that is where we are up to at the moment.

**

IMPORTANT NOTE: 

The poor run isn’t lost on me of the last couple of weeks. But a timely reminder that this game isn’t easy. We had a great start to the month winning 38 points in the first week. (ratings pointers) and then have tried our best to give them all back since. Still clinging on to some profit for the month. But, if you joined after that week it has been painful- backing all ratings pointers horses around 33 points down I think, since the 9th. That happens sadly, part of the game, part of the approach I suppose. And why I advise starting small/paper trading when starting something new, and having a 100 point bank. With any luck it won’t go on much longer, but it might.

Looking at the results and pondering…

I have personally often backed the Ratings Pointers horses twice when qualifying twice. But, maybe a case is developing to actually just back them once, even if appearing twice. The Top Rated case still remains- the idea of contemplating whether to have an extra 1/2 point or 1 point on those.

And then, just trying to back the likes of the Micky Hammond winner (25/1) and the Russell winner (25/1) – i did the former,missed the latter, but that has made this recent run more bearable.

Using the ratings pointers as the starting point, however you engage with them, is the best way forward still and long term they will, based on evidence to date, out-perform just backing all horses in section 2.

That is probably as clear as mud. A discussion on what strategy you have adopted is always welcome. But, the last couple of weeks have been painful but when the next couple of 14/1+ winners come it should lift the mood. It is annoying that all the profit from 9tth Dec to 8th Jan wasn’t spread out a bit more evenly really but sadly that is beyond my control.

As always if I can do anything to make your experience better, please say, or email me. (bar, ‘finding some more winners please!’ the stats will work just fine, over time…)

Josh

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

17 Comments

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  • Josh, after reading Jim’s rant on the free site. I can’t believe the audacity of some people, in the few weeks I have been using your site the most striking thing is the amount of work you put in and the way you at times go out of your way to please people.
    I think you have a great site which seems to have attracted other like minded individual’s who’s contributions are also greatly appreciated. Racing is not a business for agreeing with everybody more about finding ways to solve the constantly changing puzzle.
    As you are aware this sport is my income, but in the 2 years since I went full time I have found it can be a tough lonely profession, so when I come across people like yourself or Matt & Chris at Geegeez I have only praise for the work you do! Keep with it Josh.

    Gary 24/01/17 9:08 AM Reply


    • Gary, I just came in here to say the same thing. Josh your doing a cracking job, just wish I would of joined sooner

      Gavin 24/01/17 9:47 AM Reply


  • Cheeky barsteward springs to mind…..

    geoffwylde 24/01/17 9:42 AM Reply


  • Cheers gents. Jim and I have had that same conversation three times now since this blog began. In over two years of regular daily readership he has judged that none of the content/his experience, is worth a single penny. That is fine. I don’t expect people to throw money at me, esp for the free content. But at the same time, if I decide to withdraw some free content, every now and then, I don’t think he has a right to complain. But that’s just me. He does have some cheek considering there hasn’t been a missed day in over two years.

    Anyway… Gavin… well the last two weeks have been painful on here, sadly. But it will turn around, fingers crossed! One of those lulls. There is always next season, and the season after that. I don’t plan on going anywhere, and maybe one day I will just be left talking to myself 🙂

    Josh 24/01/17 10:45 AM Reply


    • Josh good hear your not going anywhere soon :-).

      Lulls as part of the game, I’ve had many more lulls then ups but with the right mindset I keep working and learning, the ups then pay for the lulls 10 fold. I joined because I’m a all-weather man, but I love all horsing race and like a spread of all codes in my portfolio and with me dipping in to your FREE daily post 😉 over the past couple of years I’ve had some massive value from you, I thought it was about time I became a member and join you other like minded people. I like your style Josh and you give me some thing to think about, like Gary said it can be a lonely place somethings and to be able to share thought with other like minded people like your good self and of course the others who input in the comments it’s great. I get a real good community feel to this blog I plan on being a member has long as you are around 🙂

      Gavin 24/01/17 11:36 AM Reply


      • Thanks Gavin. You have hit the nail on the head there really. I have worked hard to create the community and take pride in my engagement etc- responding to every email, ever comment that asks a question,and usually many more on top of that. I agree I think there is a good vibe, and it has taken 18 months+ to get to this point, which is the best it has been. Thankfully it is a space people feel free to express their own views, which makes it what it is I think. We probably need Jim, to just remind us how good it is every now and then haha. I think for £10 pm what you get across the platform is decent, but then I am clearly biased. This is a long game, and often a bumpy ride- esp when you look for ‘value’ or try, and are focused on profit and not winners. And of course entertainment. There are many more lulls in this game than highs, but if you get the highs right, they more than pay for the lulls and leave a little bit left over. I will forever be doing the best I can to create content that ticks all those boxes. Some I get right, some I get wrong, but, overall, I can’t complain. And you can always be doing better.

        Josh 24/01/17 11:55 AM Reply


  • I joined after reading the free content for a couple of weeks. I felt that as I enjoyed it I should donate. Then, if I donate a £10 then why not become a member and see it all. I find it would take a very special person to not only read, but to engage also, and not contribute a bean

    danegold 24/01/17 11:38 AM Reply


    • Cheers, that’s the spirit we are after:) Glad you enjoy it so far and long may that continue.

      Josh 24/01/17 11:57 AM Reply


  • Josh, I was very worried when I opened up the blog today to see 50 plus comments- I thought I had missed a late 100-1 winner yesterday!!
    Relieved to see it was a bit of user “banter”- keep up the good blogging !

    Steve J

    swj_58 24/01/17 12:54 PM Reply


    • Ha, i know exactly what you mean. I have done that before and gone, oh no, has someone tipped a monster and I have missed it! Yep, just some good old fashioned blog banter. I won’t be going anywhere.

      Josh 24/01/17 1:03 PM Reply


  • Josh
    Been a follower/ member for about a year now still in profit following some wise words
    of yours.I liken you to my football team ( The Blades) highs, lows & then highs again it’s the nature of things during the lows you hang in because the highs will come again

    shek2nd 24/01/17 1:28 PM Reply


    • cheers Bill, it is bumpy at times, that is for sure. As with everything it is all about timing and when you start something but over time we have/and will do, just fine. The main thing is to have some fun and enjoy ourselves. I think that is linked primarily to not losing money, and being able to cheer home the odd nice priced winner. We have done ok so far, albeit always room for improvement. Anyone who stays around long enough across the blog should do fine hopefully, whether its my occasional wise word, or those other you good readers. The highs can be very high, the lows can be low! Sadly, given the ‘value approach’ / no odds caps sometimes, there is rarely a steady middle ground. This game is mainly played out in the mind, one of emotion and control. And you can’t make a quick buck sadly, albeit we would all like to. You have to enjoy the journey as much as anything.

      Josh 24/01/17 1:40 PM Reply


      • The Blades can be very bumpy esp @ wembley 🙂

        shek2nd 24/01/17 2:05 PM Reply


  • Until yesterday the thing that I thought really differentiated this community from the Betfair Horse Racing forum was the absence of sniping and low level abuse. Then Jim went and spoiled it all.I still believe that Josh you have created a valuable community of like minded individuals who are happy to freely share their experiences (yes it can be tough and lonely when self confidence is draining away) and spread the knowledge. Hopefully we who keep the faith can move on and upwards ATB

    Final Flight 24/01/17 4:06 PM Reply


    • Oh, in general we are fine. Jim is Jim, he has been like that since the blog began. Maybe he just likes playing games! He does say the odd thing that pisses me off, esp when he questions my character/motives. And he is never rude in the truest sense, he isn’t nasty with it- there have probably been 2 such comments ever, and those folk have since left and done their knackers on the local fruity machine.

      Albeit, for my general mood and bank balance, I do wish these ratings pointers would end their mini drought!

      Josh

      Josh 24/01/17 5:23 PM Reply


  • Keep up the good work Josh! Jim did make one valid point about sending him a cheque or cash, in case the Cheltenham tips were unprofitable, I think this is an excellent idea, & would propose we put it to a members vote!! lol. On a separate note I hold Martin, Steve & Nick culpable of giving me winning tips, I wonder if they could put up a similar guarantee? I have been a member for many months, take all tips, guidance on board, which I get excellent value. This forum introduced me to Early Odds, Bet£1kto£5k challenge etc. No intention to brag but I hold your blog responsible for +92 points this year & 307 points in last 12 months. Thank you for the value that I gladly pay for.

    lately 24/01/17 6:28 PM Reply


    • Ha cheers, much appreciated! It was certainly an interesting proposal!!

      Glad to read that one way or another, this blog has by all accounts led you to have a rather successful 12 months+. That’s what it is all about. Onwards.
      Josh

      Josh 25/01/17 11:22 AM Reply


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