FREE DAILY POST: 22/01/17 (complete)

 

TIPS

none.

Coral.ie Handicap Hurdle (3.10)

Well, the good news folks is if the 20 year trends holds up (suspect they are getting broken!) we may have found a 40/1 or 80/1  winner (name your price on BF maybe…)

There are 8 , 20/20 stats.. (with decent 0 from x for those who don’t tick that stat box)

  • 20/20 Top 7 LTO
  • 20/20 Age 5-8 (4yo small no.s)
  • 20/20 11-8 or less on back (ignoring jockey claims)
  • 20/20 OR 131 or below
  • 20/20 0-4 runs this season
  • 20/20 GB or IRE bred
  • 20/20 0-3 hurdle wins
  • 20/20 0-2 handicap hurdle wins
  • 20/20 0-2 runs at track previously

 

Other stats to note maybe..

  • 12/19 Top 2 LTO
  • 18/20 10-11 or less on back
  • 15/20 had 0 handicap hurdle wins
  • Ran at Limerick LTO: 0/32,2p, Cork LTO, 0/23,0p

 

Shortlist…

Well, looking at the 20/20 stats if my eyes are correct that only leaves 2?

Conright Boy (33/1-50/1 in places) NR

Derulo (outsider of the field, 80/1-100/1) 4th, 80/1>25/1

 

Well that was fun for anyone who had an EW nibble, looked as though he would be bang there all the way round! 

The winner fell down on the not Top 7 LTO … they were 0/89,5p… but he hit the other 8 above perfectly actually..so we will take that profile forwards next year! Meade was 0/33,0p in that race since 1997, so even if I had looked at him I would have talked myself out of it I suspect. 

Anyway, let’s focus on what is a 17/1 winner, unofficially at least. Glad some of you had a fun nibble. Great run for our money. 

(I keep saying it but a similar stats profile approach found the winner of 8/10 Festival handicaps last year… so, we have that to look forward to) 

 

Use that information as you please. Would be good fun if those stats held up! But, it was probably about time one+ of them was broken but you may use them to help you narrow in on a winner. Those are clearly not ‘tips’ but we shall see how the profile holds.

 

MICRO ANGLES/SYSTEMS

Jumps Angles

K Lee Chasers (12/1<)

3.30 Font – Mr Bachster

 

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Don’t forget to read the HUNTER CHASE post if you haven’t already.

Plenty in there to take away/learn and apply. The author, Darran, has also left a comment…

You can read that HERE>>>

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Enjoy the rest of your weekend

Josh

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

23 Comments

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  • Nice to get back amongst the winners today. Nothing takes my fancy at Fontwell although I am having one bet in Ireland. Now as a warning I’ve had no success whatsoever tipping in Ireland so this is a very small e/w bet but I cant leave Hidden Cyclone unbacked in tomorrow’s Coral’s ie Hurdle. He doesnt fit the trends but he has been fairly automatic at this level in his career and is 13/16 when racing over jumps betwen 2m and 2m4f if you exclude Grade 1s. He always seems to do well in big fields and is 116342 in fields of 18+. He also appears to be one of the few front runners. He was just beaten by Clondaw Warrior at the Galway Hurdle back in August 5 months ago and that horse is now rated 155. Yes he is 12 and something younger and better handicapped will probably come out and win this but with Sky offer 6 places and 25/1 I couldnt help myself.

    nickmazur 21/01/17 6:04 PM Reply


    • 3:10 Leo
      Allblak Des Places
      Thomas Hobson
      3:40 Woodford Island win,he is 10 lb lover on hurdle than over fancys
      Thanks for Veinard. will back him ew
      and Suzie Little Boy Boru 2:00 F i always back Suzie

      Pab 22/01/17 12:06 AM Reply


  • 3.10 Leop….Thomas Hobson

    3.40 Leop….Oscar Sam

    Norman 21/01/17 7:53 PM Reply


    • Superb Norman Oscar won

      Pab 22/01/17 5:13 PM Reply


    • Ah yes, great sport Norman, well done. Good day all round.

      Josh 22/01/17 5:44 PM Reply


  • 2.40 Leop….Lake Takapuna. Good runs at Listowel and Galway. Won last time out and will appreciate step up in trip and drying ground.

    3.10 Leop….Veinard. Gordon Elliott’s selected runner when he could have been running Mick Jazz and Desoto County. Trainer comments…”Veinard represents us and we think he can go well. He has a nice weight on his back and we’re hoping he can improve again from his run behind That’s A Wrap here at Christmas. We thought he might have won that day if he jumped the last a bit better so there isn’t much between him and the winner. We know he goes around the course and although he was beaten at Cork since, he was probably beaten by a useful one.”

    JV 21/01/17 9:31 PM Reply


  • 2.00 Fontwell Lightentertainment 33/1
    Form has been god awful but at 16lb below last winning mark, 2/5 on heavy ground and 3/6 at Fontwell have to have a small play at the price.

    240 Leop – Clarcam looks big at 25/1 to me.

    Tim L 22/01/17 1:06 AM Reply


  • I’m off to France for the week!!

    After much deliberation I’ve decided to have a no bet week. Difficult for me to do but I have a feeling I’ll be charmed by a bumper Trials Day on Saturday and will have a friend put a few bets on for me then

    On the whole I’ll try and avoid the racing as it’s been a blowout this week for me so a week off can’t do any harm. I’ll probably be hovering over these pages from time to time and I hope you all punt a load of winners!

    Good luck

    Ali 22/01/17 2:59 AM Reply


    • Agree with Pab on Little Boy Boru 2.00 F. Perfect conditions tomorrow. I’m also of the opinion that the Suzy Smith yard has gone up to a new level after a poor 2015-16. I say this because she has already had two winners at the big tracks this season (Clondaw Cian at Cheltenham and Red Devil Star at Ascot) when usually she’s just a Plumpton-Fontwell dozen wins a year type trainer, with respect

      Ali 22/01/17 3:05 AM Reply


  • I have a system horse in the 2.10…ANIBALE FLY, at 7/1 Bet 365, but as usual Mullins and Walsh have an odds on 2/7 odds on shot currently, which is making me ponder, but i’ll have to follow my way.

    tonymc 22/01/17 11:51 AM Reply


  • Gone with two against the field in the 3.10 Leopardstown,After Rain(12/1) went off the 9/2 fav in this last year but didn’t handle the heavy going,lightly raced since,looks like he was trained with this in mind with a nice prep lto and will have decent ground to go on today,on the negative side Barry Geraghty sides with That’s a wrap which could be a tip in its self.Also gone with Tudor City (20/1 from 25/1 this morning in places),again had a nice prep run lto and today’s going should help,also has cheek pieces on for the first time (at least the connections are trying something new),then again if heartbreak city can transfer flat form to hurdles,then we could very well be playing for places here.Best of luck with your bets today all.

    Robbie 22/01/17 1:02 PM Reply


    • Hi Robbie, not sure if you had an EW on Derulo above, but in any case, without your comment on Friday I wouldn’t have looked at the race I doubt, so cheers! 🙂
      Josh

      Josh 22/01/17 3:37 PM Reply


      • Hi josh,A great little trends race this one over the years,well done on pointing out Derulo at such a massive price,(didn’t have a cent on unfortunately ),just had another look back at the race,a little unlucky with Tudor City i think but to be fair cant take anything away from the winner,still made a two point profit on the day so no complaints.Nice spot by nick on Hidden Cyclone also,great run from the old man of the party with so many plot jobs taking their chance.

        Robbie 22/01/17 4:47 PM Reply


  • Nice work Josh with Derulo at a great price. Backed in to 25’s from 80’s.

    Chris R.

    broadsword 22/01/17 3:19 PM Reply


  • Not complaining Josh…Derullo 80/1 placed.

    Cheers Mate. Good trends piece.

    tonymc 22/01/17 3:19 PM Reply


    • cheers gents, that went well enough. I may have had a good go at 80/1 EW, 4 places… for most of the way round there I thought he might win. Love a rush like that, great ride…

      Did just notice after race.. jockey who rode winner usually rides Derulo, but there we go. Wont complain with that. sounds like some of you had an EW nibble. Great fun.

      Josh 22/01/17 3:21 PM Reply


  • Top work josh got the 80

    gerry 22/01/17 3:20 PM Reply


  • That was like a 17/2 winner, nice one.

    Robin 22/01/17 3:24 PM Reply


  • A brilliant tip Josh and I too thought he was going to win at one point. I only had a few quid on e/w at 100/1 but still got a lovely return. Great work as always. Well done.

    John 22/01/17 3:30 PM Reply


  • thanks gents, glad you had a little go- certainly wasn’t one to wade in with, albeit I will maybe trust that profile more next year now. Doesn’t get much more exciting, watching 80/1 shots who look though they could go close all the way, bar winning of course, but that was great entertainment.

    Josh 22/01/17 3:35 PM Reply


  • Yeah well done Josh. Had some on Derulo last night given Ben Aitken’s trends and had some more following your post so a nice day today. Good to see the old boy ran another cracker in 5th.

    nickmazur 22/01/17 3:50 PM Reply


    • Cheers Nick, yep yours got an easy time on the front as you expected…def keep an eye on him as with an easy lead, despite his age, prob still got the odd race in him!
      Ah yes, seen that ben had the 2/3/4 so good day all round. Hopefully we can nab the winner next year.

      Josh 22/01/17 3:58 PM Reply


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