FREE DAILY POST: 21/01/17 (complete)

Ah well Dr Robbin was pulled up as if something went amiss. Hopefully nothing too serious. But, we should focus on that winner (Court Frontier) as even if he had completed I don’t think he would have troubled him. He had plenty in hand. If you can find those at 20/1 every now and then, you have this game sorted- he wasn’t anywhere near high enough on my thinking in truth. Joner picked him out, even if only for 10p matched at 29/1 BF.  So well done. Some picking. And I know a few on twitter did so also- so, what do I need to improve on there… Well there was the PU LTO. But, any horse is that 20/1 can be forgiven a P LTO. It may have been ground related (clearly relishes mud) but the break suggested an issue. In any case, you could take a chance that whatever the problem, it was sorted. Next- well this was only his 3rd run over this kind of trip over fences, and first I think on proper soft ground. Two runs ago he ran very well at FFos Las when fancied, staying on dourly but not quickly enough over 2m5f. His Irish form gave every indication he wanted soft/heavy and a trip. He was unexposed in both and this was only his 5th start for the yard. He had some ok Irish hurdles form, having bolted up in one of them. An unexposed chaser over 3m+ who relishes the mud. Simple. Trainer/jockey were 3/13,4p in handicaps also. So, there was something to go on there, at 20s.

Now, the key is to write the above before the  sodding race! With a 1 ponit win bet next to the horses name. Of course, most horses you back with that thinking won’t run that well, but you don’t need many to go in at that price. On this occasion he wasn’t anywhere near my shortlist, which is a sign of being a tad out of form I think.

Onwards…

 

***

TIPS

3.15 Haydock- NONE

I will leave tipping in this race. Partly as I don’t have the enthusiasm to attack it after a poor week, and secondly it looks a tricky race to assess, having had a quick glance.

There are some stats below of interest, albeit they are not too helpful. Having said that Seventh Sky, Berea Boru and Definitley Red are the three to have run at the two ‘prolific’ LTO tracks.

Definitely Red looks the solid one here but at 4/1 , in a race like this, I will let him run. He is top rated HRB/Geegeez Speed, trainer is in form, horse is in form, and still open to improvement. He should like this test.

IF the Tizzard horse is a Gold Cup top 3 horse he hacks up here but I would want to see him run in UK first and will watch with intrigue.

I don’t know, it feels like we could get a funny result in this and there have been some decent priced winners over the years.

Vintage Clouds looks of some mild interest and is a ‘test’ qualifier below for the TJCs.

But i have no strong views so will leave it. Do you fancy anything?

There were not too many stand out trends/stats but you may find the following of interest…

In 16 renewals 6/7 year olds: 0/19,5p

Now just looking at the last 10 runnings… (10/93 runners, 27 placed horses)

(remember these are from HRB so don’t take account of international form/profile)

  • Breeding
    • GB: 4/18,6p
    • IRE: 5/51, 15p
    • FR: 1/20, 6p
  • 0/1 runs this season: 0/15,2p
  • 8/10 had won at least once in last 3 starts
  • 10/10 top 3 at least once last 3 starts (0/16,3p were not)
  • 10/10 ran within previous 45 days (46+ 0/18,3p)
  • Track LTO
    • Wetherby: 5/14,7p, +47 SP
    • Haydock: 2/11,3p. +5 SP (backing those two tracks LTO runners may not be a bad micro angle over time..)
    • Chelt: 1/14,4p
    • Kempton: 1/6,2p
    • Lind: 1/1,1p
  • Trainers
    • Sue Smith 2/9,5p
    • NTD: 0/6,1p

***

 

MICRO ANGLES/SYSTEMS

Jumps Angles

K Lee Chasers (12/1<)

3.15 Hay- Bishops Road 3rd 12/1>8/1

 

 

Trainer/Jockey Combos– Live Test

3.15 Hayd- Vintage Clouds (12/1<) (#2) UP

3.15 Hay- Bishops Road (12/1<) (#9) 3rd 12/1>8/1

 

Handicap hurdle/chase portfolio- Live Test

12.55 Hayd- Hustrubal UP

 

Other

Jan Trainer 

3.10 Ling – Ribbing UP

 

***

NEW! GUEST POST

There is a new guest post from a Hunter Chase Expert. It is well worth a read and you can do so HERE>>>

 

***

That will be all for this Saturday. Good luck with any bets.

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

42 Comments

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  • I’m a horseplayer, not a tipster, but as my figures are doing okay I’ll put a couple up for tomorrow.
    2.25 Ascot – Adrien du Pont 60 Wait For Me 58 Gibralfaro 57 Le Rocher 57. I’ll back Adrien E.W. and maybe do some Exactas.
    3.35 Ascot – Kylemore Lough 71 Shantou Flyer 66 Irish Saint 61 Dark Flame 60. Kerry Lee is one hot chick at present and I’ll be betting Kylemore to win and maybe banker him to beat the others in a small Trifecta.
    Bon Chance Everyone
    Simon

    Simon Van Zyl 20/01/17 7:49 PM Reply


    • Thanks but Ascot is in danger becouse of frozen track

      Pab 20/01/17 8:30 PM Reply


  • My take on the Potts hype horse, Alary, 315H, is that it is no Gold Cup contender as it is unlikely to get ‘soft’ at the Festival. Indeed it looks like an animal with unlimited stamina, staying 30f, so the most likely target would be the Scottish National this spring.
    What do you think?

    chrisrees 20/01/17 8:58 PM Reply


  • A few close misses and I probably deserved at least one of them to go in but thats horse racing for you.

    Four I like tomorrow although all have questions to answer to not as bullish as today (than agian neither was I masively confident on tuesday and they both hacked up so what do I know). Firstly I want to have another shot at Hartside in the opener at Haydock. Tipped up LTO that it actually ran (was due to run at a meeting which was abandoned since but didnt have a visor so I didnt tip it) at a big price when he finished 3rd I still think he is on a good mark. His record with a visor in class 4s reads 1123. The horse behind him has franked the form winning NTO. This is probably a harder race and the trainer could be in better form (although his runner ran ok today) but I would expect him to be there or thereabouts. In the Peter Marsh I think the race revolves around the Rehersal Chase form with 5 of the top 8 in the market having finished in the top 6 of that race. At the prices I have to give Otago Trail another chance. He beat Definitely Red by 4.5 lengths yet is now 5lbs better off. You could argue Bristol De Mai is even better off however that ones break concerns me. With 3 firms paying 4 places on a 14 runner race with a fair bit of deadwood it pays to go with either Sky, PP or WH.

    Moving on to Taunton I think the outsider Roadie Joe looks a massive price in the 14:00. His record on Good/Soft or Good reads 111F11 with the fall coming at the festival. Those wins include winning the Grade 2 Persian War 15 months ago. With the claimer’s 7lbs he looks worth a small e/w bet. Evan Williams is 4/9 +13 over handicap hurdles at the track over the past year.

    I finally want to have a small bet on Etaad in the 14:00 at Lingfield. Back to 3lbs below his last winning mark. Would have needed the run LTO but his record in class 6 AW handicaps with a break of 30 days or less reads 1113. George Baker is 2/4 on AW when riding. Obviously he has yest to win over 10f however he seemed to stay whilst in Ireland over 12f and was running on when winning over 1m last year.

    nickmazur 20/01/17 10:01 PM Reply


    • Great shout with Etaad Nick. Nice priced winner again.

      John 21/01/17 2:05 PM Reply


      • Thought he lost a leg there with the drift but just about got there and needed every bit of the 10f. Nice to be on the right side of one of those after yesterday.

        Nick Mazur 21/01/17 2:23 PM Reply


        • Well done Nick. On fire!

          Josh 21/01/17 2:44 PM Reply


      • **** was watching the match…and missed it. Blast.
        Great shout though Nick.
        Well done.

        tonymc 21/01/17 2:23 PM Reply


    • Well done again Nick. Had already backed the favourite, but after reading your article decided to chuck Etaad into the mix. So glad i did as it paid 18.33/1 at BFSP. Cheers!

      Allan 21/01/17 2:44 PM Reply


    • thanks for making me look again at Etaad Nick had a few quid on made my day profitable.

      martin whittle 21/01/17 4:52 PM Reply


    • Etaad got me out of trouble today. thanks Nick

      alpha2 21/01/17 5:05 PM Reply


  • Hello all, sorry to bother you whilst you’re probably busy doing your big race research but I have a question about betting abroad

    Im off to France for a week on Sunday. How do I use my UK bookies sites over there? Don’t fancy the VPN route as I’ve heard of winnings being revoked that way (just in case I do happen to chop it that week!)

    I’ve also heard with some sites, like Hills, you only need a VPN to register the site there. Then you’re free to place to bets as you like

    Anyone been to France recently or have any advice?

    Telebet and giving a friend your account details are also options but not so convenient, as is, heaven forbid, not betting for a week!

    aallen 20/01/17 10:34 PM Reply


    • I think Bet365 no problem or Unibet group

      Pab 20/01/17 10:40 PM Reply


      • You could try betting through Oddschecker – sometimes that works.

        You could use a VPN. I’ve found they work for most sites apart from 365.

        You could use a program like Teamviewer. That’d allow you to leave you home PC switched on, and then you’d use your phone to remote access it.

        Neil 21/01/17 12:07 AM Reply


    • Aallen,

      Download the Tunnelbear app. It’s free. Then connect to the UK option. Then use the websites as normal.

      I’m in Brazil and I need it for Betfair, Corals. Skybet and WillHills.

      Bet365 works without it.

      Hutch 20/01/17 11:03 PM Reply


      • thanks for your responses

        any problems withdrawing winnings?

        i’ve heard the layers can prevent you doing so because betting via proxy from a restricted country is against their t and c’s and whatnot?

        aallen 21/01/17 3:10 AM Reply


  • my first look 12:55H Hartside
    3:15 H Bishops Road win,Berea Boru ew/50/1 Otago Trail e/w
    3:50 H Imjoeking Nap ,Back By Midnight ew
    4:20 H Dadsintrouble NB ,Very First Time ew

    Pab 20/01/17 10:37 PM Reply


  • Thought I’d have a fun bet done the free pick 7, and put them in a eachway Super Heinz.

    13:30 Waiting Patiently
    14:05 Elgin
    14:35 Sennockian Star
    14:40 The New One
    15:15 Bristol De Mai
    15:50 Ubaltique
    16:20 Desert Cry

    Anyone else had a go at it this week?

    Gavin 21/01/17 12:21 AM Reply


    • 13:30 Waiting Patiently
      14:05 Crievehill
      14:35 Blue Surf
      14:40 Cyrus Darius
      15:15 Otago Trail
      15:50 Ubaltique
      16:20 Sirop deMenthe

      I also do them as EW accumulators, taking out ones that are iffy.
      (Somewhat unlikely to have all winners)
      Won 100 points for very small EW bet on a 6 accumulator, Placepot paid 9 points for the same bet.

      Clavis 21/01/17 12:56 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh/All

    Been hitting the crossbar recently, MISTER KIT ran ever so well yesterday, just found one too good!
    Todays are narrowed down to FREE STONE HILL, GET RYTHAM 12.55 HAY and SAUSALITO SUNRISE, VINTAGE CLOUDS 3.15 HAY. The favourites have a terrible run in the Peter Marsh and i know i may eat my words….
    Bishops Road was the other one i considered and maybe like you Josh i should have stayed away, couldn`t resist on a Saturday though.

    Stewart 21/01/17 2:31 AM Reply


  • 315 Haydock I’m happy to go with Katenko 25/1 or even 33/1 in some places. It’s a classy horse and VW can get him ready FTO.
    Good luck to everyone.

    Marcin Sudol 21/01/17 3:39 AM Reply


  • Something to beware of at Lingfield 2 horses from the same race come out today that an in the same race 7th Jan. The time was slow 2.63 yet both have very high figs on GeeGeez (see below). Having checked back on some Lin 8f times it looked a poor race so my belief is there is an error on these ratings. One example Byres Road who runs in 1st at Ling his last win their on Standard was slow by 0.84 carrying 9 -11 whist Indian Dandy was slow 2.63 carrying 9 -05.
    1:25 Indian Dandy 5/4 SR116 (33 Clear GG)(3rd of 4 RP)
    3:45 Surfside 25/1 sr 81 (30 clear GG)(6th of 9 RP)
    Conclusion if you believe the SR then Surfside is not a 25/1 shot, personally I think it is and Indian Dandy is not a 5/4 shot. Byers Road to win the opener.
    This is purely my observation maybe the figures are spot on but as I’ve aged I tend to take less at face value I dig deeper and question more.

    Gary 21/01/17 6:46 AM Reply


    • Ascot and Taunton both called off, tracks are frozen in places

      Gavin 21/01/17 8:32 AM Reply


  • 13:30 Waiting Patiently
    14:05 Crievehill
    14:35 Rock Steady
    14:40 The New One
    15:15 Definitely Red
    15:50 Wuff
    16:20 Aintree My Dream

    had gone for Desert Cry but now n/r
    £1 accum, 5p super heinz

    martin whittle 21/01/17 8:49 AM Reply


  • My bets are:-
    1255H Heath Hunter – easiest task lately
    200L PC Dixon down in grade, up in trip
    235L John Reel return to 12f will suit
    715N Ansaab Has C3 form at a stiff mile, so might be the answer for new yard
    845N Pushkin Museum has 6f stiff track form (despite what RP says)
    915N Restive drop in grade and fast surface are +ives

    chrisrees 21/01/17 8:53 AM Reply


  • No Pete the Feat again this week but I agree that the 3:15 could throw up a result – under the radar but with cracking recent form is O Manolai – He is due a Pulled up if you follow his form but if Mr George and Heskin have found the key 22/1 is massive each way – Delemare has also put it up in the post – Might get 28/1 on the machine later on
    What do you think Josh?

    Joe 21/01/17 9:03 AM Reply


  • I mentioned a couple of weeks ago about Frankel’s record as a sire turf v AW. My main point being no winners on the AW. I have kept an eye on this and noticed that only one of his runners ran Aw @ Ling. Whilst checking mile times their I noticed that the 1 runner came a good second in the best time that day. That maiden was fact than the Cl2 Hcp that day! Today in the 3:45 a Frankel colt (Mickey Ready)that cost 500,000gns runs for the 3rd time at 20/1+ having only managed 7th at Wolv & Kemp. I am hoping for a much improved performance for a inform yard. He is from a Dansili mare which makes it worth a small ew play for me.

    Gary 21/01/17 9:19 AM Reply


  • No Ascot.My figures for the Peter Marsh are Sausolito Sunrise 67 Definitely Red 63+ Bristol de Mai 63 Alary ?
    Definitely Red looks in great shape and I think he can win. Alary doesn’t have a great win record but has run in top French Chases.

    Simon Van Zyl 21/01/17 9:26 AM Reply


  • I haven’t added any Saturday Tips from Dr Nick Hardman, so we may as well see what he fancies in the big one…

    Haydock 3.15pm

    Alary would have to be pretty special to take this off 11-10 and he concedes at least 7lb to the whole field. This is one we covered in the

    Insiders Report and from a trends perspective Otago Trail ticks plenty of boxes along with Bishops Road who needs to jump better but

    will be suited if this turns into a slog. Sausalito Sunrise can also be given a chance on these terms and ran a solid race last time at Cheltenham,

    Sausalito Sunrise @12/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 3 places)

    Bishops Road @12/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 3 places)

    Otago Trail @11/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 3 places)

    Good Luck

    Josh 21/01/17 10:05 AM Reply


  • Bee Case 1.25 Ling for Simon Dow,was intended to run at wolv,trainer not really in form but does ok with 3yo here,with only 4 runners could be a muddling race

    gearoid180468 21/01/17 10:09 AM Reply


  • Peter Marsh 3.15 Hay.
    Leaving out Definitely Red. I’ve gone for the price.

    Otago Trail.
    Firebird Flyer
    Seventh Sky.

    I’m afraid of Virak sneaking in and Bishops Road.
    It could be egg on the face time. But I won’t go beyond backing three.

    BOL all.

    Tony Mc 21/01/17 11:27 AM Reply


  • 3.15 bishops road or vintage clouds for me, my other bet is in the 4.20 Cultram abbey to make all lol

    James b 21/01/17 11:42 AM Reply


  • I’ve gone all around the houses in the Peter Marsh and keep coming back to Virak. Only 8yo needs to improve a couple of pounds, apparently lost a shoe lto when he underperformed. Harry Cobden in great form and soft seems to suit best of all.
    Each way price 20’s widely available.

    alpha2 21/01/17 12:15 PM Reply


  • Im also in the Virak camp and managed to get more than .10p at 22 this time 🙂 …… as Richard Johnson is now off to Haydock then im investing in Sausalito Sunrise as well …. 14/1

    Good Luck All

    Joner 21/01/17 12:41 PM Reply


  • Nice one for the members Josh.
    22/1 DEEPSAND…….
    Stick with the stats…… I needed that after yesterday.

    tonymc 21/01/17 1:08 PM Reply


  • Sorry Josh, I meant 25/1. [big smile]

    tonymc 21/01/17 1:09 PM Reply


  • On the back of Deepsand going in at 25s, I’m breaking my rule and doing Virak at 20s.
    The reason I initially left him out is as I pointed out in an earlier mail.
    Ben Aitken [Josh’s oppo] advises caution with Nichol’s in Dec/Jan, albeit at Wincanton. I wondered why until one of our bloggers [apology for not recalling who] mentioned this is the period when Nicholl’s horses have their winter equine flu shots and we all know how that affects us…..so caution lads.
    Maybe Josh could check with Ben A. and see if that is the reason he advises caution.

    tonymc 21/01/17 1:25 PM Reply


  • Well done nick with the 2pm selection. Don’t normally bet on a/w but thanks.
    reillysmiley

    reillysmiley 21/01/17 2:04 PM Reply


  • Congrats to Nick , didnt play myself ,but very well done …. also to the Members with their winner .

    Nice to see guys in the winners enclosure on a Saturday 🙂

    Joner 21/01/17 3:13 PM Reply


  • Thanks guys.

    I just about had the Peter Marsh right although put too much emphasis on the 56 day break Bristol De Mai had barring his first start all his wins have been when re-appearing within 30 days. (plus it was a trend buster). Hopefully both Otago Trail and Bishops Road get dropped a few lbs for this since both are probably on ok marks to win something this winter ideally on heavy.

    nickmazur 21/01/17 4:19 PM Reply


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