Ah well Dr Robbin was pulled up as if something went amiss. Hopefully nothing too serious. But, we should focus on that winner (Court Frontier) as even if he had completed I don’t think he would have troubled him. He had plenty in hand. If you can find those at 20/1 every now and then, you have this game sorted- he wasn’t anywhere near high enough on my thinking in truth. Joner picked him out, even if only for 10p matched at 29/1 BF. So well done. Some picking. And I know a few on twitter did so also- so, what do I need to improve on there… Well there was the PU LTO. But, any horse is that 20/1 can be forgiven a P LTO. It may have been ground related (clearly relishes mud) but the break suggested an issue. In any case, you could take a chance that whatever the problem, it was sorted. Next- well this was only his 3rd run over this kind of trip over fences, and first I think on proper soft ground. Two runs ago he ran very well at FFos Las when fancied, staying on dourly but not quickly enough over 2m5f. His Irish form gave every indication he wanted soft/heavy and a trip. He was unexposed in both and this was only his 5th start for the yard. He had some ok Irish hurdles form, having bolted up in one of them. An unexposed chaser over 3m+ who relishes the mud. Simple. Trainer/jockey were 3/13,4p in handicaps also. So, there was something to go on there, at 20s.
Now, the key is to write the above before the sodding race! With a 1 ponit win bet next to the horses name. Of course, most horses you back with that thinking won’t run that well, but you don’t need many to go in at that price. On this occasion he wasn’t anywhere near my shortlist, which is a sign of being a tad out of form I think.
3.15 Haydock- NONE
I will leave tipping in this race. Partly as I don’t have the enthusiasm to attack it after a poor week, and secondly it looks a tricky race to assess, having had a quick glance.
There are some stats below of interest, albeit they are not too helpful. Having said that Seventh Sky, Berea Boru and Definitley Red are the three to have run at the two ‘prolific’ LTO tracks.
Definitely Red looks the solid one here but at 4/1 , in a race like this, I will let him run. He is top rated HRB/Geegeez Speed, trainer is in form, horse is in form, and still open to improvement. He should like this test.
IF the Tizzard horse is a Gold Cup top 3 horse he hacks up here but I would want to see him run in UK first and will watch with intrigue.
I don’t know, it feels like we could get a funny result in this and there have been some decent priced winners over the years.
Vintage Clouds looks of some mild interest and is a ‘test’ qualifier below for the TJCs.
But i have no strong views so will leave it. Do you fancy anything?
There were not too many stand out trends/stats but you may find the following of interest…
In 16 renewals 6/7 year olds: 0/19,5p
Now just looking at the last 10 runnings… (10/93 runners, 27 placed horses)
(remember these are from HRB so don’t take account of international form/profile)
- GB: 4/18,6p
- IRE: 5/51, 15p
- FR: 1/20, 6p
- 0/1 runs this season: 0/15,2p
- 8/10 had won at least once in last 3 starts
- 10/10 top 3 at least once last 3 starts (0/16,3p were not)
- 10/10 ran within previous 45 days (46+ 0/18,3p)
- Track LTO
- Wetherby: 5/14,7p, +47 SP
- Haydock: 2/11,3p. +5 SP (backing those two tracks LTO runners may not be a bad micro angle over time..)
- Chelt: 1/14,4p
- Kempton: 1/6,2p
- Lind: 1/1,1p
- Sue Smith 2/9,5p
- NTD: 0/6,1p
K Lee Chasers (12/1<)
3.15 Hay- Bishops Road 3rd 12/1>8/1
Trainer/Jockey Combos– Live Test
3.15 Hayd- Vintage Clouds (12/1<) (#2) UP
3.15 Hay- Bishops Road (12/1<) (#9) 3rd 12/1>8/1
Handicap hurdle/chase portfolio- Live Test
12.55 Hayd- Hustrubal UP
3.10 Ling – Ribbing UP
NEW! GUEST POST
There is a new guest post from a Hunter Chase Expert. It is well worth a read and you can do so HERE>>>
That will be all for this Saturday. Good luck with any bets.