FREE DAILY POST: 19/01/17 (complete)

 

TIPS

3.20 Winc

Sartorial Elegance – 1 point win – 7/1 (SJ/BetBright) 13/2 (general) UP (rather poor,never really going for whatever reason)

As De Fer – 1 point win – 16/1 (general) UP (ran ok, but maybe handicapper has him)

Yep, when struggling, just stick with your micro angles research! Or just do that anyway if they have selections in a ‘tipping’ race. Backing 2 and not getting one in the frame is always a bad sign.  Cyclop backers rather unlucky there as he was cruising, but jumping wins it. Always heartwarming to see and old-timer do that, winning from a career high handicap mark aged 12. My form on the other hand, still poor in general. 13 losers in a row, +7.25 points for the month. 

 

This looks a competitive little contest and it should be an entertaining watch, hopefully all the way through the winning line! I narrowed this down to the two selections, Morney Wing and Dawson City. I think it is between those, albeit my inconsistent chasing eyes may have missed something no doubt.(well,on morning consideration i could throw Cyclop into that mix)  No, there are no doubts. As De Fer is romping away with this,and if he falls at the last, (the morning market now suggests plenty of doubts, bugger) Sartorial Elegance will be there to pick up the pieces 🙂

Sartorial Elegance… well there is something of the ‘could be anything’ about this one still- does the handicapper have him, or does he have plenty in hand still for last year’s winning trainer. (Tizzard is 9/29,17p all handicap chasers here,last 730 days) I suspect the latter. But for being un sighted at the fence before turning for home LTO he may have given my winning tip, Morney Wing (yep, some do win, occasionally) plenty to think about. He had not been asked a question and to my eye looked to be about to cruise passed Dawson City, the perennial chasing bridesmaid. It was a case of what might have been. Who knows, there was a long way to go. Given he rocks up here, they clearly think he is a stayer and who am I to question his judgement. He could relist this test and although he has a big weight, looked worth a stab. He had jumped well enough up to that point and is the young/unexposed one in the field. 13/2 or thereabouts was fair given that profile.

As De Fer- well I just couldn’t leave him at 16s here. Although he is 11 he has had a stop and start career an is fairly lightly raced for his age. Back in 2011 he won a handicap chase off 135, carrying 11-12, and as such, I don’t wish to assume, at this price, that this mark is beyond him. I couldn’t help but be drawn in by his form last Jan/Feb where he hacked up at Warwick (admittedly off 101 with claim) but that was a decent enough race, it was very testing,and he was in a pace battle for a long way – and he destroyed them. He then beat off Quite By Chance over a short enough 2m4f at Wincanton. After some time in the doldrums those wins suggested they had found the key. He clearly isn’t the most consistent and can tip up every now and then, but you have to take chances at this price. He is 4/7,4p in Jan/Feb in handicap chases, and if he doesn’t win here, fingers crossed I can get my money back on him soon. He just seems to relish the mud and stamina doesn’t look a problem. And he has course form. Oh and the jockey, a future star (him and James King may be the Dickie and AP of their generation, you never know!) is 6/12,7 places on Honeyball’s handicap chasers. So, all in all, I thought there was enough to go on at that price. He may UR, he may not be good enough etc etc. But, I am comfortable at that price. It feels too big, IF he could get back to that Warwick type form. It is the 3rd run of the season, and this may have been a target. I would want to see money, into 12/1<, not many of Honeyball’s over 12s go that well and the market usually gets them right, in that sense at least.

Of the rest…

Well I won’t say anything to put you off Dawson City- he is a ratings pointer qualifier for the members club but I suppose 4s has made my decision easier, at least tipping wise. He could go close here, he may win. He likes the track and he stays, and he is in form/running well. He does make the odd error which always seems to cost him, and may even want further than this. But, he will give backers a run for their money, or should do. Like Morney Wing, this race comes 17 days after what was a tough enough race. It will be interesting to see how the front two cope with those exertions…

Morney Wing…well he owes me nothing and is clear top rated on both HRB and Geegeez Gold, for information- so, he may well hack up. That is the best I have seen him travel and jump LTO and if he does the same again he won’t be far away. At a track like this, it may be as short as he wants to go, but he stays well. He can hit one, not LTO so credit to Paddy B, and it will be interesting to see how the quieter style of Noel Fehily gets on with him. He is up 5lb also and has 11-12 to lug, after that hard race LTO. His price is fair enough but he has won for me last time and I thought I would take a stab on a couple of others. My head says the Tizzard horse would have run him close had he stayed up,and given he is open to more progress,that was the call. Morney may still be improving also in conditions like this, that isn’t impossible. Again, backers should get a run for their money. I think I will cope ok with him winning, I wasn’t torturing myself as I can do, staring at my notepad, and was happy with the selections. I am clear in my mind why the other two are worth a go. (so, ratings rise,short enough trip,change of jockey,big weight,hard race LTO to eye, are main reasons for leaving)

I was happy to leave the rest. Barton Gift is up in the weights, is inconsistent,won’t be able to dominate I don’t think,and is a C4 animal these days I suspect. Onderun is held by three of these I think (Tizzards would have been ahead I think) and I can’t see why he should over turn that, they are stronger stayers to my eye, and have more quality about them. 6/1 feels ok,not generous in that context. Alfie Spinner is 12 now, and doesn’t win that often. Conditions look ok. Many of Kerry’s have been needing the run this season and I want fit horses onside for a test like this. They won’t hang about here I don’t think. Cyclop needs more, and I am not sure why he would improve on recent runs. Interested when he runs in a race carrying less than 11st, a small horse, that may make the difference. He does stay well enough. I can’t have those that remain, for one reason or another.

PACE- As De Fer may try and make all and happy days if he can see off the likes of Barton Gift and get to the front. We could have some fun then. Abracadabra can be up there but jumped to his left LTO which won’t help in trying to hold a position. Saroque can lead but isn’t in good enough form to hold a position at the moment I don’t think. OnDeRun was up there for a time LTO, but gives the impression he may track the pace if unable to get an easy lead without much effort. At Warwick, As De fer was booted to the front when he hacked up,and was keen to see off any others. Maybe the same again. Those are the main pace angles. Morney Wing and Sartorial E may try and track that pace.

We shall see how those two go! GL

 

 

 

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Jumps Angles

K Lee Chasers (12/1<)

3.20 Winc- Alfie Spinner- WON 12/1 (-15p R4)

 

Trainer/Jockey Combos – NEW- LIVE TEST

3.00 Lud – Fille Des Champs (12/1< guide) UP

3.20 Winc- Alfie Spinner (12/1<) WON 12/1 (-15p R4)

 

Handicap hurdle/chase portfolio– LIVE TEST

3.00 Lud – Fille Des Champs- UP

 

Other

Jan Trainer Pointers

8.30 Chelm – Tell A Story

 

Southwell USA– TEST (14/1<) (0/3,2p so far 2017)

2.00 – Higher Court

 

***

 

NEW TJC RESEARCH

I have spent part of today researching some trainer/jockey combos that we can track over jumps throughout the year. The other jumps live test above (handicap hurdle/chase portfolio) hasn’t gone that well to date,albeit I need to go back through results. Anyway, hopefully this one fares better but there is a reason I like to test them live, in front of your eagle eyes. The research is sound, and simplistic in places. Qualifiers will be posted above for you to use as you please.

YOU CAN READ THE FREE REPORT HERE>>>

 

***

Wednesday…2.55 Newbury…

That was a decent race with the two with the best formlines coming to the fore, and arguably the one with the best formline of this season, over fences, winning. (in terms of winners produced anyway)

Some immediate post race thoughts are below… for interest..

Both the front two clearly have a bright future, bringing together two of the strongest chase (novice hncp chase) formlines of recent weeks, that of Uttoxeter, and Ascot. I don’t think there is much between those two on that evidence- Fehily was able to dictate, which probably won it for him in the end, Russell settling his further back and maybe just having too much to do. Sticky ground which can be hard to make up ground in. He ran with credit. Anyone taking under 3s ish on him (which was probably fair) needs to have a word 🙂

What else…

Get Involved- as yet doesn’t know how to jump it seems. Hoped slower ground/longer trip/slower pace may help with that. No excuse, had plenty of space around him and clear air in front. I would resort to an easier track with him/easier fences- not sure what Dickin’s main hunting grounds are really, that was one of them, over fences at least.

Little Jon- great run, his jumping can be iffy but ok here. I still can’t work out if he sees out 3m properly or not- always think there will be stronger stayers than him over that trip, in a decent run race. Strong run 2m4f/5f may be best but interesting to watch him NTO

Monbeg Gold- what a monkey- swinging away, sulked up straight, rallied. Not sure what they try with him next, issues seem to be mental. I would try leading/making all with him – remember Achimoto (or whatever his name) who won for McPherson making all at Chepstow at a monster price (Malcolm still spending those winnings!) that helped him – they should try that. It may help him in a race if he never sees another horse, and tries to bully from the front. Blinkers worked to an extent I think.

Rathlin Rose – probably entered a lot of notebooks. Loomed up menacingly – a TTP stats selection in that race, I didn’t back him, and was starting to worry! In the end, fitness got to him I think and his jumping started to go. But, the way he travelled into that, in what was a decent race for me, suggests he has a fair bit in hand and the Pipes will be excited. He has wins in him. Very good run given his time off. Hopefully no issues post race and he doesn’t ‘bounce’ NTO. Needs to hack up once/twice to be considered for Festival type handicaps I think. One to watch.

 

***

PETER BOWEN…

Just while this is on my mind, before I shut down for the evening as it approaches 10pm..

Peter Bowen had a winner at Ludlow  Market Rasen even, on Wednesday, his first for a while..well, he was 0/24 before that over the last month. He revealed there had been a cough in the yard but was not confident that had gone and seemed rather upbeat, suggesting most of his string was bouncing and in fine fettle. I wonder if they are about to go on a run over the next 2-3 weeks… he has 3 at Ludlow, with maybe Land of Vic, and Grape Tree Flame looking most interesting/worth closer inspection.

***

That will be all for today.

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

34 Comments

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  • Josh, I can tell you that I am now 32pts down and I’m pretty sure I’ve backed all the hurdle/chase portfolio runners. Your results may differ slightly with a few price differences but I would hope they are not too different. Feb/Mar and Apr to go and I expect around 50/60 runners or so. Will probably need a 20/1+ winner or two to make profit as there is bound to be a quite a few loosers and small price winners probably wont make up for the loses so far. Will have to make sure I dont miss the 30th April in case there is a biggie on the last day and you’ll be after a donation still I’m sure 🙂

    jim 18/01/17 7:02 PM Reply


    • yep I need to have a look at those, clearly not working as hoped/expected based on the research. That’s why it is important to live test, hopefully the TJCs may do better! Even though no odds caps I would have expected much more at this stage, and even the odd big winner shouldn’t paper over those cracks. Hopefully you haven’t been betting much on them. The more proven systems have been doing fine I think, again I need to update results soon.

      Josh 18/01/17 9:25 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh / All

    Well that was a strange day, usually if you have a bad day everything goes pear shaped and for the most part it was, The two stallion selections finished out the back of the tv with no run at all from the newcomer Satin Ribbon (Now I know why Bet365 where happily laying 12/1 all evening lol) Chupalla joined the clan finishing last along with Ruzeiz 7th of 9 but amongst the dross Pinwood wins at 25/1, 40’s & bigger available crazy game…….Onward to tomorrow and a plethora of races of interest including 4 main stallion selections…………

    3.10 Southwell – Tynecastle Park 51.00 best odds betbright 41.00 elswhere
    Sea The Stars, 1M, Southwell, 3 runs, 3 wins, 3 places 100% win SR, 100% pl SR
    There has been 3 different winners, On form this lad has struggled to get out of last place, slowly away every time and now dropped in trip, the combination of track and trip will have to work wonders here but the stats are very promising….

    Staking £18.52 – 2% of £925.96

    5.50 Chelmsford – Firesnake 13.0 best odds most books
    Dandy Man, 6F, Chelmsford, 7 runs, 4 wins, 4 places 57.17% win & place SR
    4 different winners including the selection won his maiden over C & D off 63 in November and now racing off 61 with Adam Kirby booked, interesting at these odds

    Staking £18.14 – 2% of £907.44

    7.00 Chelmsford – Serenade the Stars 2.75 best odds Bet365
    Sea the Stars, Chelmsford, 1M 2F, 11 runs 5 wins 7 pl 45.45% win 63.64% pl SR
    5 different winners & 7 different placed horses shows a very strong sire line.
    Must have an excellent opportunity was given a mark of 60 after 3 moderate maiden runs at Wolves and then returned there in a handicap last week (I believe Gerry put this one up then) going down by a short head to an excellent front running ride on the winner Babouska, a switch to this track and trip along with a good draw and the same low mark should see this one winning, I can see him going off shorter.

    Staking £17.78 – 2% of £889.30

    7.30 Chelmsford – House of Commons 4.5 best odds 5 different books
    Sea the Stars, Chelmsford, 1M 2F, 11 runs 5 wins 7 pl 45.45% win 63.64% pl SR
    Same as above figs will change after 7.00pm race.
    Lightly raced with just the 9 runs 7 for Paul Cole won his maiden over 1M at Ripon off 83 dropped to 74 and picked up by Mick Appleby and won on his 2nd start for him off 73 at Southwell 1M (Sires 100% C & D) now switched to Chelmsford over this 1M 2F trip off 79 would seem still well handicapped and taking into consideration the sires SR here too should go well.

    Others to note……

    12.55 Southwell – Alfolk 3.25 best odds betstars/betvic/bet365
    Invincible Spirit 29 runs, 8 wins, 11 places, 27.59% win SR
    Trainer is 4 runs, 2 wins, 2 places in maidens here last 2 years

    3.10 Southwell – Ramblow 17.0 best odds most books
    Notnowcato 13 runs, 5 wins, 5 places 38.46% win & place SR
    4 different winners, trying C & D 1st time after fading badly over 1M 3F last time here

    5.50 Chelmsford – Lightsome 8.50 best odds Betbright
    Makfi 2 runs, 1 win, 2 places 50% win SR 100% place SR
    2 different horses

    6.25 Chelmsford – Marshgate Lane 5.0 best odds betstars/paddy/betfair sports
    Medaglia Doro 7 runs, 2 wins, 5 places 28.57% win SR, 71.43% place SR
    2 different winners, 4 different placed horses
    Had 5 runs in claimers winning 3 and a 2nd & 3rd first try at track

    And Finally……..

    2.00 Southwell – Bring on a Spinner 4.5 best odds bet365 / betfair exchange
    has a record at Southwell of 4 runs 3 wins and last time out 5th beaten 1.4L in a competitive 5F sprint, Won for us over today’s 6F off 68 and now off 73 after dropping 1lb after last run. Still lightly raced with only the 9 runs I believe he improved for the step up to 6F here and can continue improving now back up to this trip. Well drawn in 1 expecting a big run again tomorrow….

    Here’s hoping a plethora of “Sea the Stars” winners tomorrow

    Good Luck with all your selections
    Steve

    Steve Wiseman 18/01/17 9:50 PM Reply


  • Oops missed off the staking for the 7.30pm race

    £17.42 – 2% of £871.52

    Steve Wiseman 18/01/17 9:59 PM Reply


  • Wincanton 3.20
    CYCLOP (6 YO) 14/1
    LTO 3rd, now sent to a flat track as final hill was too testing.
    Best adjusted speed figure.
    Age of winners last 8 years, most recent first 11 12 10 8 9 7 11 10.

    Wincanton 1.40
    CADOUDOFF 14/1 > 12/1
    Best history in January runs.
    Best adjusted speed figure.

    Clavis 19/01/17 3:16 AM Reply


    • Hi Edmund, I have that feeling I did when reading Nick’s tip at Ayr which took my main fancy on- that feeling of , ah, yep, that’s is probably a good bet- albeit my mind now is influenced by seeing money for Cyclop and As De fer being weak, so you may well have landed on the right outsider I think.
      Yep very good point about the flat track, that may well be what makes the difference and having watched his last race again, that was actually decent enough, maybe that hill finding him out. He is usually best when making a quicker return but may not be much in that, the yard has been quiet also but is starting to pick up again in recent days, a few placed horses etc. Suspect he will give you a great run for your money, does stay, conditions fine. Hopefully for me anyway, the Tizzard horse has your measure, but that weight may swing it late on if this is a slog in sticky ground. Maybe I should have slept on that race!
      Gl.

      Josh 19/01/17 9:56 AM Reply


  • Steve, thoroughly enjoyed what you had to show for us today, some very interesting selections and well done with yesterday!

    I came here expecting you would have a piece about the Archipenko progeny on the AW/Southwell.

    Two today first two races. flooded unraced 25/1 – 11/1 and Archipenko 25/1

    Had a small intetest bet myself; can anyone with access to the relevant stats pleae give us some Archipenko progeny stats 🙂

    Tim L 19/01/17 9:11 AM Reply


    • Hi Tim,
      A quick look at Archipenko at Southwell…
      4/19,8p all runners last 730 days (4/25,8p total, +42 SP)
      4x different horses/winners
      Included a 50/1 winner, for Jenkins, the last such winner, and i note he runs the one in race 2…
      2/7,3p in maidens
      0/5,0p beyond 1m
      4/18,8p running 6f-8f.

      Josh

      Josh 19/01/17 9:41 AM Reply


      • Thanks Josh, not bad by any means. Have had a small play on both! I did notice Jenkins had the 50/1 clever divya also from Archipenko the other week, hopefully more then coincidence!

        Tim L 19/01/17 10:00 AM Reply


        • No problem, that Jenkins horse is being ‘well backed’, well, he was 25s it seems, now 10s/11s across the board. Interesting that Hamilton is on also again. You may have landed on one there! GL.

          Josh 19/01/17 10:03 AM Reply


  • Morning

    not sure if the Southwell (USA) connection is still a profit maker. Today’s tip is now a non-runner, and doing a very quick research into all categories shows each of the last 3 years to be losing years. Other Forums have played this idea and they seem to be getting disappointed with qualifiers and results.
    Too many winners are at favourite prices and the big double-figure winners are rare. It needs a deep analysis to create some guidelines but overall, I think the idea is past it’s sell-by date

    Norman 19/01/17 9:49 AM Reply


    • I concur, Norman, having used a system that is not widely known, for several years. Last season saw the decline begin and only losers this year.
      Trainers have moved on to different breeding patterns and discarded the ‘pure’ US bloodlines.

      chrisrees 19/01/17 10:03 AM Reply


      • Hmm, in general maybe with the US angle but the one I had a look at still looks worth keeping an eye on. Something has clearly changed, as there are nowhere near the number of qualifiers there used to be- so you must be right Chris on that breeding point – but was still 2/8,3p +7 points in 2016, and so far in 2017 0/3,2p, the places from the same horse, and on his first of those runs lost by around 1/2 a length at 17/2. The logical principle remains intact, USA breds improving for a switch to the surface. Appears it is just very micro now, but worth keeping an eye on for now- if it can make 10 points over the year from 10 or so bets, every little helps.

        Josh 19/01/17 10:11 AM Reply


        • Have you had a look at ire breeds? Specifically those carrying a penalty between November to March? Could be a nice little angle there.

          James b 19/01/17 12:12 PM Reply


          • Nope I haven’t in truth and I don’t plan to haha. I am sure some all-weather, horseracebase using, enthusiasts may want to have a dive in! 🙂

            Josh 19/01/17 1:09 PM Reply


          • I usually give IRE breeds very close attention when it’s heavy. had a few good chance touches from it but never applied a system as some races are flooded with them. I do think however, that the general % of wins increases. Or am I just imagining so?…lol.

            tonymc 19/01/17 4:25 PM Reply


            • Sorry!…I meant to stipulate NH racing and not AW.

              tonymc 19/01/17 4:27 PM Reply


  • Wincanton being given every chance to go ahead but they have now decided on a third inspection at 11.00 am……overnight frost surprised them and sun has decided to stay in bed, for now !

    Norman 19/01/17 10:11 AM Reply


    • Yep, very annoying, it was 80% raceable at 8.15, so hopefully it is fine, giving it every chance. It is meant to warm up so we shall see! Be very annoying if they call it off.

      Josh 19/01/17 10:12 AM Reply


      • 95% raceable at 1113, but clerk still delaying.

        chrisrees 19/01/17 11:30 AM Reply


        • I would be shocked if that was called off. Looks bright blue sky and some sunshine,only going to warm up a tad. Should be fine. They would have called off by now if not confident, with any luck!

          Josh 19/01/17 11:33 AM Reply


        • Decision at 1200

          chrisrees 19/01/17 11:38 AM Reply


          • Meeting is ON

            chrisrees 19/01/17 12:06 PM Reply


  • Great start for TJC. Well done

    Sandy 19/01/17 3:45 PM Reply


    • Cheers Sandy. I would be lying if I said I had anything on, which given I usually back all K Lee angles as above is rather criminal. Yep, I think never again will I take on a micro angle horse in a ‘tipping race’, esp given my issues at present. Just trust the stats! Qualified on a tried and tested K Lee angle also above. Maybe I should stick to trainer research! Hope you may have had a nibble on him, and in any case, solid start.

      Josh 19/01/17 3:50 PM Reply


      • Hi Josh

        I wouldn’t beat yourself up about this one particularly (be my guest on the others if you feel the need) given it looked infinitely harder than yesterday’s and I personally couldn’t really figure out what was going to place let alone win. Nice to see Cyclop run well given it reaffirms the fact that Westy looks well treated.

        Nick Mazur 19/01/17 4:18 PM Reply


        • Yep cheers Nick – not beating myself up for not tipping Alfie, I can live with that. 1/19 in handicap chases, and Lee was 0/20,1p with all runners 60+ days since last winner in March 16. Fact she has readied him may indicate they are about to pile in the winners. Won’t be discounting on fitness now.

          That was just an odd race in the end.

          Would have been some more beatings though if Cyclop had stood up! Shoddy not thinking about the flat track angle last night and he had been running well. Struggling for any consistency,and I have been saying that for some time. We will get there. Hard work and reflection the only way.

          More annoyed with that one given the stats around him- it either means I tip one, to give myself room to back the systems as systems- Given had laid out 2 points I didn’t go in with any more, and I rarely don’t back a K Lee chaser angle.

          Josh 19/01/17 4:23 PM Reply


      • Yes it is Josh….I would have thought you’d have nailed it by it being K Lee trained…but who am I to talk. I’ve talked myself out of some gud’ns this season…..
        I only managed 9/1, but it’s clawing back arrears and moving forward again. Good shout Josh.

        tonymc 19/01/17 4:21 PM Reply


        • Well I am pleased you had more faith in my systems than me haha. Well done. That Lee one can just be backed blind, and nice to see a good start to the new Live test with the TJCs. Whatever else, my enthusiasm for researching trainer angles will remain! I think all feelings of annoyance are compounded when your main fancies don’t run much of a race.

          Lee, as noted above, has struggled with those returning after a break in recent months, suggested an issue with training and earlier in the season said hers had been needing first run. That has influenced me to quite a degree, but even if I thought he was fit, outside of just trusting the micros, not sure my pin would have landed on him! Classy old boy though.

          Josh 19/01/17 4:26 PM Reply


          • I think she can be placed with George as a trusty regular.

            tonymc 19/01/17 4:31 PM Reply


            • For sure, I think that is one of the few I haven’t backed! Those two, along with Venetia. On we go. This game is all in the mind.

              Josh 19/01/17 4:35 PM Reply


  • Nearly there Steve….Ramblow 25/1….2nd, but good place [winner].
    Cheers Steve.

    tonymc 19/01/17 4:16 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh, I think an angle as to a drop in form of some of our backing stables is the time of year the horses have their flu shots.
    I was reading a Ben Aitken system as to Nichols clearing up at Wincanton….but not during DEC/JAN…. then yesterday…..one of your bloggers noted his horses usually have their flu shots around that period…..
    Well when you reach a certain age as a human and take the offered winter flu shot..it does lay you low in itself for a period. So maybe this is why Ben advocates don’t back D Nichol’s horses over that 2 month period at his clean up track of Wincanton.
    Be worth a quick ring to your mate just to verify.

    Cheers.

    tonymc 19/01/17 4:40 PM Reply


    • Yep you are right with all the Nicholls info etc. That is indeed the reason for a usual dip around this time. How many others do the same I don’t know,suppose all we can do is monitor trainer form stats.

      The dry autumn has been a reason for a lack of fitness in some I suspect/not as many runners.
      Josh

      Josh 19/01/17 6:58 PM Reply


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