TPP Jumps Notes: 18/01/17 (complete)

1.The Ratings Pointers

2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.The Ratings Pointers

NONE.

 

2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

 

MARKET RASEN

None. I don’t believe there are any.

 

NEWBURY

2.55

Get Involved (all hncps) UR (1st- Doh)

Herbert Park (hncp chase) UP

Rathlin Rose (hncp chase) UP (notebook,decent run for long way)

Little Jon (micro going IF HEAVY- currently ‘soft’)

Big Casino (micro going IF HEAVY- currently ‘soft’)

 

3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

Well a quiet day ahead it appears. Of those in the 2.55… all three are unexposed over fences and I suppose that type is always dangerous to rule out albeit I am not leaping of my seat to back any of them at the moment. (well,i have had a small EW nibble on Get Involved,as below)  Rathin Rose comes here after 600+ days off and Tom Scu isn’t on so I can only assume a run to get him back into things- albeit the market may guide. Herbert Park is rated on his hurdles form, this being his second chase. He didn’t show enough LTO and his better handicap hurdle form was on a sound surface. Headgear switches again. Any market support may be interesting but I was happy to leave him. That leaves Get Involved who may well be the most interesting to my eyes and may be worth a small EW play at 16s. He is a CD winner over hurdles and a previous point winner, this looks his trip, and the ground is fine. This is only his 4th chase start and he was never going over shorter LTO, on better ground. It could be he still needs a run or two to get to peak fitness but I wouldn’t be shocked were he to get involved and I think he would be the pick of the three. It looks a very competitive race and the top 2 look the most interesting. But, if you remove those (and one may falter, place wise anyway) it becomes a very open race. He may not be good enough but looks interesting enough.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

  1. Ratings Pointers: Week End 15.01.17 : CLICK HERE TO READ>>>
  2. Total ‘All Qualifiers’: CLICK HERE>>> 

Updated results are above for you to interrogate/use as you please, esp if helping to inform punting decisions/how to approach the content. As always, if you have any questions or comments, fire away.

The core stats, ‘all qualifiers’ are performing well, and they are finding winners/making profits…that is the main thing. When comparing them to the ‘ratings pointers’ hopefully the reasons for why I suggest focusing on the latter is recommended,certainly as a starting point. The win/place% strike rates are much higher, and the return on investment for a few ‘ratings pointers’ approaches is operating at around 35% at the moment, this is against 14% if you had just backed all of the qualifiers, section 2.

Anyway, they are there to use as you please and should give some confidence when following the ratings pointers long term, and then also trying to use your/our subjective judgement to land on a few winners from section 2, that do not get highlighted by the ratings pointers.

**

That will be all for today.

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

3 Comments

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  • Morning Josh and all

    A very quite day today.

    I’ve gone with a dutch bet today in the 3.05 lingfield

    Chupalla and Just An Idea

    Steve on the free post as put Chupalla on his horses to note and I’ve also put my little 2p in on too.

    Josh I’ve also had a nibble each way with your pick City of Angkor Wat so fingers crossed 🙂

    GL all

    Gavin 18/01/17 10:22 AM Reply


    • Good luck Gavin,yep fairly quiet day ahead- good opp for me to get my head stuck in my HRB and do some trainer research, always good fun.

      Yea we shall see how City goes- it is me playing on the AW, which is even worse than me playing in a 3m+ handicap chase!! (and I am meant to be good at those) cue tailed off- but, seemed to be a lot in his favour at that price. Poor race mind.
      Josh

      Josh 18/01/17 10:27 AM Reply


      • Yes a poor race but that is what makes him stand out, it’s a nice value bet and in the long term that approach could prove very profitable.

        With way I’ve been going with AW handicaps 5f-7f last couple of weeks, I might start doing 3m+ handicap cases hehe 😉

        Gavin 18/01/17 11:20 AM Reply


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