FREE DAILY POST: 18/01/17 (complete)

 

TIPS

2.55 Newbury

Immediate thoughts…

Both the front two clearly have a bright future, bringing together two of the strongest chase (novice hncp chase) formlines of recent weeks, that of Uttoxeter, and Ascot. I don’t think there is much between those two on that evidence- Fehily was able to dictate, which probably won it for him in the end, Russell settling his further back and maybe just having too much to do. Sticky ground which can be hard to make up ground in. He ran with credit. Anyone taking under 3s ish on him (which was probably fair) needs to have a word 🙂

What else…

Get Involved- as yet doesn’t know how to jump it seems. Hoped slower ground/longer trip/slower pace may help with that. No excuse, had plenty of space around him and clear air in front. I would resort to an easier track with him/easier fences- not sure what Dickin’s main hunting grounds are really, that was one of them, over fences at least.

Little Jon- great run, his jumping can be iffy but ok here. I still can’t work out if he sees out 3m properly or not- always think there will be stronger stayers than him over that trip, in a decent run race. Strong run 2m4f/5f may be best but interesting to watch him NTO

Monbeg Gold- what a monkey- swinging away, sulked up straight, rallied. Not sure what they try with him next, issues seem to be mental. I would try leading/making all with him – remember Achimoto (or whatever his name) who won for McPherson making all at Chepstow at a monster price (Malcolm still spending those winnings!) that helped him – they should try that. It may help him in a race if he never sees another horse, and tries to bully from the front. Blinkers worked to an extent I think.

Rathlin Rose – probably entered a lot of notebooks. Loomed up menacingly – a TTP stats selection in that race, I didn’t back him, and was starting to worry! In the end, fitness got to him I think and his jumping started to go. But, the way he travelled into that, in what was a decent race for me, suggests he has a fair bit in hand and the Pipes will be excited. He has wins in him. Very good run given his time off. Hopefully no issues post race and he doesn’t ‘bounce’ NTO. Needs to hack up once/twice to be considered for Festival type handicaps I think. One to watch.

***

 

None. I am going to leave it. The race is packed full of ‘unexposed’ types (at least 8) and it may be one to watch with the future in mind. The one at the top seems short to my eye but is clearly expected to go well and hasn’t had many goes over fences, likewise the second fav has a decent chance at 11/2. I suppose Monbeg Gold was the interesting one, based on that Fontwell run, and he is unexposed, 8/1. But he really needs the blinkers to work and Jonjo is 3/33 over fences here, last 5 years. (0/25,1p all runners here last year) Knowing my luck he will travel like a dream and pull away over the last couple! Albeit he didn’t respond to cheekpieces LTO,and found little. It does feel like a race to leave, we shall see.

(Update: Well having looked at that fav properly, i can see why he was put in at a short price… given how well that Ascot form has worked out. To my eye he does need to prove he stays? Of course he could have needed the run at Chepstow and at Ascot just bumped into 3 better horses,rather than not getting home. But he has had 60 days off and 9/4 is skinny enough now, as was 11/4 i thought. If you got 4s/5s then well done, appears that may have been around for a brief time… My TTP stats have a quiet day ahead, no ‘ratings pointers’- but the stats pack does throw up three in this race, the two Pipe horses, and the Dickin Horse, Get Involved- I have just had 5EW on him at 16s having pondered- as he is lightly raced, is a CD winner over hurdles, and will appreciate this step up in trip. He may well need another run, and the market will guide. I think getting the top two beat could be tough here, but there could be one or two places to play for, and you never know. Far from confident and more for a muggy interest, but it will be interesting to see how he goes. Interesting they come here, to a track they do well with handicap chasers, rather than sending him somewhere else maybe.)

 

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Jumps Angles

Handicap hurdle/chase portfolio – LIVE TEST

Hurdle

3.45 MR – Isaac Bell- UP

Chase

2.55 Newb- Herbert Park (11/1< best ) UP 25/1

 

Other

Jan Trainer Pointers

3.05 Ling -Ascot Day (x2 angles) 14,30 G1,H3 WON 7/4>Evens

6.20 Kemp- Gleaming Girl 14,30 H1 

 

***

STATS/ANGLE OF INTEREST

4.05 Lingfield- City of Angkor Wat – 14/1 – 

UP- best leaving the AW to others I think! You seem to have that well covered. 

 

‘could’ be an interesting EW play. Albeit I am venturing into the AW so brace yourselves. Small money! It may be best to explain this with an image.

Any users of Geegeez Gold (superb piece of kit, no need for the racing post, ditch that, and take a £1 trial for 30 days HERE>> 🙂 ) can use the ‘instant expert’ tab to get a feel for how competitive or uncompetitive a race ‘could’ be. Surprise Vendor was a clear stand out yesterday, and the winner of the last at Plumpton the day before, at 10/1, was also a clear stand out (i missed that one sadly) So, maybe I will dabble by highlighting the odd horse that really jumps out- in being proven in conditions, and winning regularly enough, when everything else has it to prove. We want lots of Amber and Green for the selection, lots of Red for everything else.

It is a starting point, and patience is key. A picture may help…

 

Hopefully you can see that. That is the ‘win tab’ and City of Angkor Wat stands out somewhat. To the right you can see he is 11lb below his last winning mark.

But, you sometimes want a bit more than that. I find it interesting that he steps back up to 7f here- that last run over 6f was interesting as he somewhat stayed on I think, having been outpaced at one stage. There are also a couple of front runners in here. He has won over 8f and maybe as he gets older, 6f is a bit sharp these days. His last run over 7f was in June 2015 I think, in a C4, off 77.

He is also 4/9,6p in AW handicaps when returning within 7 days of his last start. He is 5/14,9p in AW handicaps Jan-March.

At 14/1 I am going to have an EW play. This exact same approach as above, waiting for that clear ‘stand out horse’ would have/has highlighted two winners at 10/1 and 6/1, from the only two I have noticed this week. In general you want a race full pf exposed types, no unexposed horses who may not have shown their best as yet. Time will tell!

Clearly, this one will now be tailed off. But, you get the idea, and you can see the method to my madness.

***

That will be all for today. Good luck with any bets. Josh

p.s I do owe you all a research piece really, (for those who like such things) so I will spend some of today looking at some trainer/jockey combos…and I really do need to update results again…

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

38 Comments

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  • Many thanks for your kind words everyone. I’ve had more winners in a day before but not sure I’ve ever had 2 win that convincingly. Always great to have days like today although I’ve learned to savour them as they dont come very often.

    Not much I am keen on tomorrow although I want to have a small bet on Noble Legend in the 15:15 at Market Rasen. Appriciate he has been out of form however he has dropped 12lbs below his last winning mark. Harry Skelton back on board is a major plus given he was onboard when he last won and has a very good record when riding for the trainer over handicap chases (7/20, 10p +14.5). The horse gets first time blinkers here. The other two things is that he is likely to get an easy lead which is how he won LTO and that without disrespecting the other five jockeys here he isnt up agianst anyone who is considered one of the top 15 jockeys out there (coincidently that was also true when he won on the horse before) so I think it will help him get it.

    Like Josh I am staying clear of the 14:55 at Newbury although I do think the favourite is a worthy one (happy to state the reasons if anyone is interested) and barring an accident will be hard to beat but has now been backed into an unbackable price. If he somehow drifts back to 7/2+ I would reccomend a bet.

    nickmazur 17/01/17 8:28 PM Reply


    • Agree the 2.55 is very tough. I was drawn to the favourite when I looked at the race bit slightly put off by the possible ground. Whilst he’s won on soft the trainers has repeatedly been quoted as saying he wants decent ground, and I was struck by the different in forecast ground for tomorrow. Chase course 5.2, soft, with good to soft in places and Hurdle course 4.8, soft and heavy in places. I’m taking chance on the ground being all round soft and have small stakes on a couple of outsiders who’ve won at the track, proven over soft and the distance, on workable marks with stables in good form – Horatio Hornblower (been nibbled at) for Nick Williams and Get Involved for Robin Dickin. Also will be intrigued to see how the 2.40 at Market Rasen plays out – should be a cracking race between 3 very decent horses. At the prices I’m backing Kings Odyssey, who was running a stormer LTO at Cheltenham.

      JV 17/01/17 9:25 PM Reply


  • An early post for Wednesday, a horse expected to go well at a price, Daylami Kirk, 3.55 Nb, 16/1 at present.

    Martin Colwell 17/01/17 9:19 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh / All

    After a quiet day today just the 1 investment a short price winner a bit more of interest tomorrow with 2 x main stallion selections and 3 to note…….

    Kempton 5.20 – Satin Ribbon 13.0 best odds Bet365 as of 9.05pm as low as 5.5 elsewhere be quick if interested can’t see these odds lasting long.
    Shamardal 19 runs, 8 wins, 13 places, 42.11% win SR, 68.42% place SR

    Staking £19.10 2% of £954.76

    Kempton 6.20 – Stosur 9.0 best odds across most books
    Mount Nelson 5 runs, 2 wins, 2 places 40% win SR 40% place SR
    2 different winners

    Staking £18.90 2% of £944.86

    Others to note……
    Lingfield 2.30 – Pinwood 41.00 best odds betstars/betvic/paddy/betway
    Bushranger 1 run, 1 win, 1 place

    Lingfield 2.30 – Ruzeiz 12.00 best odds betbright 11.00 elsewhere
    Muhathir 1 run, 1win, 1 place

    Lingfield 3.05 – Chupalla 7.0 best odds Stan James 6.0 – 7 other books
    Out of the Austrailian sire Helmet his progeny are doing pretty well over 5F with an overall record of 26 runs, 7 wins, 11 places 26.92% win SR 42.31% place SR and on Polytrack 4 runs, 2 wins, 2 places 50% win SR, 50% place SR interestingly both winners where trained by M Johnston including the selection and after 2 runs on turf & tapeta a switch back to polytrack where she won her maiden convincingly at Kempton makes her of interest tomorrow and decent value at 7.0.

    Cheers and good luck
    Steve

    Steve Wiseman 17/01/17 9:28 PM Reply


    • Satin Ribon caught my eye too, it’s extremely rare that a bookie offers 2x the average price. And it’s been that way for 7 hours now. Why aren’t arbers/traders jumping at the opportunity to punish B365? Also oddschecker verdict is Satin Ribon to finish 1st, and 25% of bets were placed on him, yet the odds don’t change.

      John 17/01/17 10:27 PM Reply


      • Yeah, very strange. The exchanges more in line with 365, though. It’s 11.0 on Betfair as I write this at midnight. I’ll play, and maybe also lay if it does shorten.
        Paul

        blueboy199 18/01/17 12:10 AM Reply


    • I’ve had a dutch in 3.05 race, I’ve gone with Chupalla as well. I followed her three runs as a 2yo and thought after first run Johnston might have done a little more with her. She’s an April foal and something else to note about her, is the dams – sire Seeking The Gold was seconded in the Breeders cup classic group 1. I’ve also gone with Just an idea, he won a weak maiden last time, but looks a really nice horse now and looks like he’s come in to a nice turn of foot stepping back to 5 and still with visor on I think he just run a big race.

      after saying all that Ascot Day looks an improving sort and with the simicock yard on fire? looking like a really nice race.

      Gavin 18/01/17 10:06 AM Reply


    • O you beuuuuuteeeeeee Steve….

      Ta La xoxoxoxo

      How many large do I owe you lol

      tonymc 18/01/17 2:36 PM Reply


    • Oh Steve. haha. I thought, ahh, he has mentioned a 33/1 shot, I mean those stats are in very early days and not a reason to back a horse as is, but, what the heck, £2.50 EW 33/1 for a bit of fun. Wallop. In goes Pinwood.

      Josh 18/01/17 2:37 PM Reply


      • LOL…it’s terrible this Josh, I feel like a kept man..hahaha!
        I nearly missed it but got 25/1.

        tonymc 18/01/17 2:43 PM Reply


        • Any advice gratefully received, I have an ew lucky 15, Ist leg Pinwood @40/1, next ones are City of Angkor Watt (see above) Silver Lining 4.20K and Ocean Promise 5.50K. Cash out is £355. Do I stick or take the money

          Edward 18/01/17 2:56 PM Reply


          • whats the potential return? And in what scenario would you be most pissed off? I say if you play those bets, you should never cash out, because the dream is the big win!
            If you cashed out and it came in, or won X more, could you live with it, mentally? Or would you be more pissed off you didn’t cash out. That is the dilemma. I would always let it run..
            Some chap on colossus bets, cashed out a footy bet before Xmas for £2.5k… it came in, he would have won £4.6 million. Bet he had an enjoyable xmas!

            Josh 18/01/17 3:08 PM Reply


      • Thanks Josh / guys I’m glad you all had something on 🙂 Always great when a biggee goes in, I have to add I only play small stakes for these “One to Note” section as they are with limited data that could go either way unless backed up with other reasoning, As for Pinwood it was only the “bushranger” stat there was no real substance to the data with just the 1 run for his sire with the 1 win. I usually stake a total of £10.00 for each of these and split the bet on Pinwood £3.00 win at 60.00 (Betfair EX) and £7 place at 15.5. I think the exchange is the best place to play any big prices they are often well inflated and Paul blimey you where unlucky there mate not to get the full £2.00 matched I think it hit a high of 65.00 in running…Back down to earth with Chupalla though looks a million dollars but ran as though something not quite right and plum last 🙁

        Steve Wiseman 18/01/17 4:40 PM Reply


        • Oh for sure, was a definite fun money bet, and very last minute as I glanced through comments again! Yep, I am useless with looking at the exchanges, I dread to think what I could have won on some bets had i gone to there, more return without doing any more work. I really should just have that open at any time, just in case!

          Josh 18/01/17 4:48 PM Reply


          • The stat looks a bit stronger for that one now anyway :-)…It did make up a little for the one I missed yesterday, for some reason HRB had Kempton at standard going and went through the card on that basis only to find when i got back in yesterday that it was Standard to Slow the way it has been for a few months so as I went back through the card after racing it highlighted an “Elusive Pimpernel” progeny with 1M figs of 3 runs, 2 wins, 2 places which would have picked In the Red a 26.0 winner of the 4.10pm and 46.47 Exchange SP it also hit 160.0 in running 🙁

            Steve Wiseman 18/01/17 5:10 PM Reply


    • Well done Steve that was a great shout

      Pablo 18/01/17 2:56 PM Reply


  • 2:55 at Newbury has a horse from ‘that’ race, you know, the Uttoxeter one! Its Brandon Hill, currently 7.0 on BF. Won a chase on soft at Warwick over 3m 1/2f.

    Chris Albin 17/01/17 10:06 PM Reply


    • great spot Chris. well done.

      tonymc 18/01/17 4:11 PM Reply


      • Thanks, doubt there’s been a hotter race this season, 22 runs 10 wins 7 placed.

        Chris Albin 18/01/17 4:36 PM Reply


  • Jock Du Jour

    2.30 Lingfield Major Ben 4/1 Bet 365

    gearoid180468 17/01/17 10:56 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh/ Everyone
    I have to agree that 1455 looks very competitive, but I’m up for a challenge
    Hopefully the going will be what I think it might be (soft to heavy/heavy) so I’m on
    WYCHWOODS BROOK and BOB TUCKER ew bets. The first one I like a lot the second one I can’t leave alone for some reason.
    Good luck to everyone.

    Marcin Sudol 17/01/17 11:07 PM Reply


    • Marcin,
      Wychwoods Brook is a strange horse, history tells us that he runs a ‘stormer’ third time out for the last four years.
      My concern is that he is currently 16s and the last seven runnings the winner’s price was in the region of, at best 8s.

      Nick
      I would be interested in understanding why Potters Corner is a ‘value’ favourite?

      Clavis 18/01/17 12:00 AM Reply


      • Well, at his price now he is getting a bit short- but I suspect that most of the hype is rightly based on the form of that Ascot chase which really couldn’t have worked out much better. The winner has since bolted up since, the second won a decent enough race at Cheltenham (from Arpege D’ Alene who would run well NTO also) and the 3rd has since came decent seconds twice, in decent enough handicap chases. Potters was fourth. Davy Russel booked- so I can see on that basis why 7//2 would seem decent, 9/4 getting tight!
        But, he has had 60 days off, and does look like he needs to prove he stays? Arguably ran the last twice as if he hasn’t quite got home? Anyway, looks like he represents the best ‘collateral’ form.

        Josh 18/01/17 7:53 AM Reply


      • I think Josh has covered it largely but in general I think in his career he has done very little wrong and they clearly think a lot of him at home. After winning his bumper he was put in the deep end and only was beat by Barters Hill and Bellshill whilst finishing ahead of the likes of Buveir D’air. Last season he was close 2nd (and gaining) to Ballyoptic over 2m4f hurdles in Ffos Las heavy who is now rated 159 so I think that shows he will stay considering he is now a year older. He has won both his starts in this sort of field size so its quite possible that he will improve following 2 chase runs in small fields. The only 2 times he has finished outside the first 3 was on right handed tracks so there is also an argument that he is better left handed. He is clearly not a value bet given the price now but he is the correct favourite. Obviously after writing this he is bound to fall at the 2nd fence but I do think he will end up a 140s+ horse in the next season or two.

        Nick Mazur 18/01/17 10:28 AM Reply


  • Fergal O Brien and Paddy Brennan team up for 2 at Market Rasen,Three of a kind reverts to hurdles 1.35 after making a hames of it over the larger obstacles,has won at course before in a novice hurdle,both Trainer and Jockey have good record at course and Wicked Willy makes the market for us,Think the 8/1 offers a bit of value,hard to know what to make of the other runner I’m Still Waiting in The 1.00 where the Rooneys also have the hot favourite,stranger things have happened,if was guaranteed 8 to run would have very small interest e/w at 33

    gearoid180468 17/01/17 11:30 PM Reply


    • Just in the midst of some Trainer Jockey Combo research, and Messrs Obrien and Brennan have made the list, in handicap hurdles (non novice handicaps etc) and as such their one in 1.35 a qualifier, 12/1< best. That fav hacked up the last day mind, and if he repeats that may be tough to beat. We shall see. GL

      Josh 18/01/17 12:37 PM Reply


  • Fancy 12:50 Ling – Swiss Cross 10/1 … Make Music Swiss Cross 10/1 to go well on this ground considering they have both won on this ground recently.

    Also Fancy Hatfa in 1:25 ling to go well – He should have won his last rice have he not leaned on the winner as a result slowing him down and costing him the race.

    Am sure SW Kelly would have learned from this and position to race home – See him staying well clear of the rest in this contest.

    Finally 3:05 Ling.. I think Just an Idea is been overlooked but loved the way he ran his race and stayed on until winning it. Booking of Luke Morris is a plus for me.

    Good Luck everyone on your bet selections.

    Pablo!

    Pablo 17/01/17 11:41 PM Reply


    • Hi Pablo,
      I fancied Swiss Cross, but in the end have gone for Dutch Golden Age again….won very smoothly, but has gone up 5lb for the win.

      Bol.

      tonymc 18/01/17 12:31 PM Reply


      • Both ran poorly today glad I backed Make Music saved my day. But i do fancy Swiss Cross to go well on his next Outing.

        We shall see.

        Pablo 18/01/17 2:54 PM Reply


        • DGA couldn’t quicken Pablo….that 5lb may have got him…i’ll watch SC next time from my tracker.
          Cheers. BOL.

          tonymc 18/01/17 3:11 PM Reply


          • Hi Tonymc,

            Couldnt agree more but i think DGC should go well on his next race … I will defo keep an eye on him too

            Pablo 18/01/17 8:05 PM Reply


            • Sorry I meant DGA … 2/3 result isny bad .. makr Music & Hatfa .. Hopefully can keep up with the good runnings

              Pablo 18/01/17 8:08 PM Reply


  • 2.55 newbury

    Think I will play a couple of outsiders although it’s very possible that Rathlin Rose is being “arranged” for an appearance at Cheltenham or Aintree and should be watched.

    So two at decent EW prices are Get Involved @ 16/1 & Big Casino @ 28/1…..already backed Little Jon last night and I might have a small bet on Monbeg Gold to finish

    Norman 18/01/17 11:17 AM Reply


    • Good luck Norman, yep the two Pipe horses are interesting, not impossible both have a plan, well most of pipes C3+ handicappers must! Not sure what minimum is you need to get into a Chelt Handicap, mid 130s? So his top one may be ok, Rathin will need to win at least once, and has a lot to prove after such an absence.

      Little Jon- I wasn’t sure he stayed this trip, albeit not quite 3 miles ,albeit he is now 0/12,0p beyond 2m4f I thought, he got a line through on that basis, but we shall see. Would be a great horse if he could jump! Can smack one.

      We will both be cheering if Get Involved wins, and given what I have said about Monbeg I should probably chuck some muggy change at him. Looks a race for the top 2, but you never know. There goes the discipline!

      Josh 18/01/17 11:34 AM Reply


      • I suppose Potter’s Corner does have the look of a NATIVE RIVER (Welsh Grand National) about it ….short priced, long distance race favourite who took the field apart and led most of the way home to win….we are just chasing rainbows “looking for value” but at the moment we have the confidence that it will be beaten…..get the wheelbarrow ready !

        Norman 18/01/17 12:32 PM Reply


  • Gary Moore has a few runners today. I guess that Darebin is his best chance. It seems the horses are running better now but still a watching low stakes brief.

    My old mate Poets Society goes in the 3.05 LP today. Should be winning really.

    Good luck.

    Martin Colwell 18/01/17 11:36 AM Reply


  • Lol. Great pick Steve (Pinwood). Had 17 pence, of £2 ask, matched at 120.0 win only on Betfair overnight. Unlucky or what? Cheers for the £17 profit, mate.
    Paul

    blueboy199 18/01/17 2:36 PM Reply


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