FREE DAILY POST: 17/01/17 (complete)

Well, Leg Iron drifted pre race as if he had lost a leg, and threw in another moody performance. I can live with those, no problem. If he was going to bounce back, it was going to be in a race just like that. His mark should come down again and maybe he ‘has’ to get an easy lead, otherwise he doesn’t run his race. He couldn’t get the lead I thought he would, young Bowen had other ideas, and that was that. I suspect he will go in again over CD, but clearly you would want a price, and he will need to be well placed- both to get an assured lead and lack of unexposed oppo. Of course, he could just be gone at the game.

Thankfully Tomahawk Wook (9/1) ensured it wasn’t a total blank across the blog. Moving on..

 

TIPS

2.55 Ayr

Kilbree Chief – 1 point win – 7/2 (BF/Tote) 10/3 (general) (G1/H3) UP

Appears not many are handling that ground there today, i didn’t think it would be that bad, and in any case, on paper, there were enough fine efforts on heavy not for me to be put off. The winner was no shock, given conditions, and anyone reading any of the comments below may have taken covery fire when apparent how testing it was. I thought selection would just be better than that winner, but doesn’t appear he has handles that ground, so clearly doesn’t like that type of heavy as much as I thought he would. Another poor one. They tend to rack up at the moment, in among the odd glimmer of hope that I may find some consistency/go on a run. Don’t think I have given the Morney Wing/Cabrag 2017 profits back just yet. 

 

10/3 is just about ok i think for this Lucinda Russell charge- who also happens to be the only horse in here who is both top 3 on Geegeez Speed and HRB (which, given the success that approach has for my TTP stats/members posts, i seem to like using as a guide more generally)- I can’t think what other Russell horse ticked the same boxes recently. Hmmm. 🙂

Anyway, this one enjoys Ayr, and esp when it is soft- he has never run a bad race here as yet, winning over CD last February and comes here in reasonable enough form, 3rd run of the season. He ran ok the last day, on ground that was probably lively enough, over a trip that was maybe far enough and against better horses. He drops in class here, 1/2,2p in C4<6k handicaps, he likes the track, he likes the mud, and this is only his 8th chase start. Russell is in form – 3/13,4p in the last 14 days and we should get a good spin from him. He can carry weight and gets a handy 7lb off from a decent young jockey who has some decent enough stats. No concern there I don’t think- the one niggle being he hasn’t ridden the horse, but he is straight forward enough. He ran a decent race at the Scottish GN meeting also, in a C2, coming second, a decent stable mate he beat that day also! There is a chance he is just a bit better than these, and at 10/3, given the questions over some of them, I thought that was just about ok.

I really do need to start upping my game, esp in the 10/3>6/1 range- those prices can be ‘value’, if you can spot them. I did ok with Cabragh LTO, hopefully this can be another one.

There are a few pace angles in this also, and he usually just sits off it, so again, no excuses. If it is clear he is in a rhythm early, and jumping well, he will go close.

Of the rest..

well Nortonthorpe… a worthy fav maybe, going for the 4 timer. He is up another 8lb in a stronger race and has to prove he will handle heavy. That may be no problem at all, and the trip may not be either- but he is doing a few things differently and combined with that 8lb looks worth taking on- he can’t keep winning forever. Grove Silver is interesting but doesn’t win often enough for me, too many places, and the one race he did win recently was poor. He handles the ground and does stay well, but there is something about him which just put me off. He had a tough enough race the last day also.

We are then getting into the realms of horses having either a stamina and or ground question to answer…well I say that, Jonny Eager doesn’t and if this turns into slow motion stuff, he could take it- but he looks a slow boat to me who may need a stiffer finish against some of these, just to slow them down. He will win a staying chase this season, probably in hock deep mud at Hexham when nothing else handles it. He gallops, but the selection is just a much faster horse I suspect, as are a couple more in here. He will run his race- i suspect he may have hated the visor LTO, so  a line through that, but still a niggle- he was 19l behind the selection when he won here early 2016 over CD.

So, Mossies Well has a few questions to answer after the break. Unexposed but stamina an unknown, esp in this ground. He has his well being to prove also. Bonzo Bing ran welll LTO on good, chasing home the fav. Now 0/10,2p over fences so he has questions, maybe more about his willingness to want to win, albeit heavy over this far a question also. Hasn’t proved he can’t/won’t, but is 7s, not 16s.

Settledoutofcourt is not out of this but is getting long in the tooth now and his best form is on a sound surface and he looks out of sorts. Bit of a slow plodder and he may be here to help ensure a decent pace for the stables main hope/to unsettle anything else that may try and lead. He could out run his odds but I would be surprised if he took this- too many young legs up against him and most of his recent form has been poor.

So, that’s the lot I think. Hopefully KK can run a good race, I think he could out-class these with any luck and as such, given the yard form, his track form, drop in class etc, 10/3 looked fair enough.

 

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Jumps Angles

NTD Unexp Chasers

3.15 Exet- Ballypoint- 14, G3 

 

Handicap hurdle/chase portfolio– LIVE TEST

Chase

2.40 Exet – Grand Gold- H3 

2.55 Ayr – Mango Cap

 

Other 

Jan Trainer Pointers

4.10 Kemp – Starboard (any odds) 14,30

 

***

That will be all for today. Good luck with any bets.

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

44 Comments

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  • Jock Du Jour

    A win for hot beat after 3 near misses puts us 3pts up,still one swallow doesn’t make a summer,for tomorow we have Kieran Fox and John Best,there are 3 possibles so i have borrowed from Joshs All Weather Stats to pick most likely winner

    5.10 Kempton Mulled Wine 1pt win 10/1 Bet 365

    They also team up with Millionheir 10/1 3.05 and Berrahri 16/1 4.10
    George Baker takes ride on Pendo 7/1 in same race,they could also run will but will stick with Mulled Wine as selection

    gearoid180468 16/01/17 6:04 PM Reply


    • Apparently Hot Beat’s closing sectional time was every bit as impressive as the visual impression he gave (and Harley struggled to pull him up). Not that it will have gone under the radar, but still one for the tracker.
      Paul

      blueboy199 16/01/17 8:34 PM Reply


  • I laughed at the “Leg Iron drifted pre race as if he had lost a leg” comment because I was thinking the same thing multiple times just this week. Most notably when Fort Jefferson drifted from 3.25 to an incredible 19.0 BSP – surely he must’ve lost a leg? He finished dead last, 11 lengths behind the 7th horse. Also Karam Albari opened at 2.88 fav and drifted to 11.0 BSP, only to end 34 lenghts behind the 7th horse. Is there race fixing going on or why else would a fav drift and fail so hard?

    Anyway, Tomahawk brightened up my day, cheers.

    John 16/01/17 6:43 PM Reply


    • Cheers John, I try and bring humour to my mediocrity at times! Yep what with the exchanges/laying, it does pose different sets of questions. Of course many will drift down to their pre race antics, or simply money for others, or a natural correction in the market – may have been a false short price due to being ‘tipped’ somewhere maybe. I tend not to think about any ‘dark arts’ as I can’t control them and there is enough honesty about to make this game pay long term, and to make it enjoyable. Well, certainly over jumps anyway. On the flat/AW those race watchers should do ok, some horses do look like they will go close NTO etc, just a question of spotting them.

      Hopefully this Levy increase of around an extra 30mil per year to BHA coffers will be put into prize money at the lower end- when you are running for 1-2k etc, you are going to get all sorts going on from some connections, as ‘gambles’ etc is the only way to make the game pay. The pots need to be worth winning. And that is before getting into our handicap system, which is a debate for another day. It is what it is, we just have to spot those that may run better NTO!

      Albeit, I think there is a case for stronger stewarding, some rides, esp on the sand, do look awfully ‘odd’ -flapping or arms/no use of whip, often peaks interest- and if I can spot them, i would have thought others could.

      Josh 17/01/17 9:13 AM Reply


  • A couple of small bets tomorrow. I want to have an e/w bet on Johnny Eager in the 14:55 at Ayr. Tomorrow test looks ideal for him (was beaten less than a length by Itstimeforapint 9 months ago over 4m on heavy ground carrying 11st 11lbs). Over the past 3 runs either the ground hasnt been testing enough or he was coming back of a break. He is 29lbs better off with the favourite for a 22 length defeat. The form of that race is working out well. Should certainly give us a run for our money.

    I always want to give one last shot to Surprise Vendor in the 16:00 at Ayr. Now back 2lbs below his last winning hurdles mark which happened over course and distance. This looks like a pretty bad race and he is 4/5, 5p in class 5 races worth less than £3.5k. Trainer also won this last year.

    nickmazur 16/01/17 7:51 PM Reply


    • Good luck Nick, yep can see why you would have an EW tickle on Johnny, well my thoughts are above, not sure if just a slow plodder, but that may well be enough, we shall see. Agree conditions much better than have been, and excuses for certain runs. I would hope KK is just a better horse, and that ratings/weight swing wont be enough, esp with claim and fact KK is entitled to show himself much better than this chase mark at some point, in his conditions, being only 8th chase start also. He is being supported so I may well have that wrong.

      Surprise Vendor – yep tend to agree -given the geegeez instant expert tab, it was hard to ignore him really, and if he is going to win again, it will be today I suspect, in a race full of horses where he is the only one proven in the main conditions. 4s was ok, I had a nibble. GL.

      Josh 17/01/17 9:24 AM Reply


      • Thanks mate. Same to you. Looking at HRB at lunch and barring our 2 not a single one of these has even ran over 2m6f on heavy let alone 3m3f so very big guesses if you’re on anything else.

        Nick Mazur 17/01/17 1:00 PM Reply


        • Blimey that does look very testing at Ayr,looks like had a fair bit of rain- could be slow motion stuff…maybe our two will be fighting it out come the end!

          Josh 17/01/17 1:51 PM Reply


          • Well done mate, called that one spot on. Turned into a right slog, and he had hexham slogging form! Damn. Albeit, thankfully took some cover, but another official loser.

            Josh 17/01/17 3:05 PM Reply


            • Thanks mate. I would be lying if it was my most confident pick but its very nice when they win like that.

              Nick Mazur 17/01/17 3:23 PM Reply


              • Well, Surprise Vendor was a joy to watch, good end to a frustrating day, well, for me anyway! Suspect those Geegeez ‘instant expert’ stand outs, are probably profitable to back over time- just looked so obvious, plus all the other info about his profile etc. Easy as you like. And a drift to 6s. Super.

                Josh 17/01/17 4:20 PM Reply


    • nickmazur just like to say read your post saw that Jonny Eager and Suprise Vendor were top rated on the ratings I use.( I race vision formally Front line) had to have a few bob on even had a £5 double as well thanks for drawing my attention to those two 10/1 and 6/1 winners and a tasty 76/1 double not to be sneezed at Regards Al

      Alan Haig 17/01/17 4:47 PM Reply


    • Absolutely brilliant tipping Nick. Your reasonings were also compelling. I backed both of them, and thank you kindly. Today you’ve made a pensioner quite happy!

      Allan 17/01/17 6:32 PM Reply


    • Great tips nick, good reasoning behind both. had a look after reading your post last night and must say the form was there in the book. Great stuff mate well done and thanks.

      John Wilson 17/01/17 6:49 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh / All

    A win for Antiquarium although short enough at 2.5 is a win nonetheless and a better 5.5 winner in the “ones to note” made a dreary January day a little better, nothing for the stallions at Kempton tomorrow and just the one to note…….

    Kempton 5.40 – Aurora Grey 2.5 best odds most books
    Rip Van Winkle 2 runs, 1 win, 1 place 50% win SR, 50% place SR
    This 4 yr old filly has improved markedly for the step up to 2 miles winning both times at Lingfield and now trying Kempton, Has ran over 1M 4F here staying on strongly showing she handles this RH track and don’t see why she should not keep on improving against her elders. (Priced up accordingly though)

    Cheers
    Steve

    Steve Wiseman 16/01/17 8:45 PM Reply


    • Hi Steve,

      I’ve gone with Miss Tiger Lily I don’t usually back in 2m AW. I just think after watching there last run, and now both have got 9-2 on their back (Triger was 6lb heavier last time) that Miss Tiger Lily should get there today, I maybe way off and with Aurora Grey looking like she still may be improving. Oh well my cash is down on Tiger. It will interesting race to watch 🙂 GL

      Gavin 17/01/17 11:08 AM Reply


      • Hi Gavin

        Yes I can see where your coming from with Miss Tiger Lily and a strict reading of the form would say a 6lb pull for 3/4’s of a length would have him turning the tables. I just feel that with only the 12 runs and the improvement shown stepping up in trip and a switch to this track where her best run over 1M 4F was done that she can go in again, (Early sire stats good too) but best of luck you may well have the value, I’m on at 3.0 and think thats ok

        Cheers
        Steve

        Steve Wiseman 17/01/17 4:20 PM Reply


        • I have say nice one Steve, you read that race prefect ☺ I’ve been way off today, notes have been taken some things have been learned time to crack on to tomorrow ☺

          Gavin 17/01/17 9:19 PM Reply


  • The Pipe yard has gone 2 weeks and 27 runs without success,is he entering Johnjo territory.In fact he hasn’t been in form all season.Normally your haul of winners would have a fair sprinkling of his runners,renowned for their fitness and endurance.The thing thats more alarming is the dearth of new recruits,wonder if there is a virus in the yard,change in training or just a general decline of quality,maybe there will be a turnaround in fortunes before Cheltenham

    gearoid180468 16/01/17 9:24 PM Reply


    • I just noticed that too. Throws a spanner into the monthly trainer systems for February as he was one last year

      He did seem to burst into form then, though I recall

      Ali 16/01/17 10:24 PM Reply


      • The Pipe team are way off challenging the top stables these days. I would not be surprised if David Pipe called it a day in the next year or two. Not just the Nicholls and Hendersons and Tizzards nowadays but also Harry Fry, Dan Skelton and Neil Mulholland to name a few. Where can the Pipe’s get the horses from? They do not have the owners these days, no David Johnson to give them the ammo.

        Martin Colwell 16/01/17 10:51 PM Reply


        • Isnt it strange when people are thinking the same thoughts at the same time. However I was looking a pipes yard and he does still get considerable support. Most notably caroline tindsall and harry drew and they spend big bucks. So I suspect the virus thoughts may be closer to the mark. But I think your right about the comparison with jonjo. I suspect quite a few will be aimed at Cheltenham and it wouldnt be a shock if they suddendly hit form. Especially the well handicapped ones or failed graded horses dropping in to handicaps, ala un temp pour tout 2016!

          jim 17/01/17 7:37 AM Reply


          • Yep, mercurial that yard, I cannot work them out and haven’t had a ‘purple patch’ for a couple of seasons now, from memory. Not sure if illness or what but Becher winner, and others, show they can ready them still when they want to. Maybe they don’t have the horses and all their focus is just on plundering good prizes/setting up gambles etc. A yard to keep an eye on, but along with Jonjo etc just seem to struggle for any consistency. Either illness, or just have too many moderate horses that get in the grip of the handicapper quickly maybe.

            Josh 17/01/17 9:15 AM Reply


            • That’s 2 winners today!! Right off Pipe at your peril. He’s bound to have at least a couple of handicappers laid out for the Festival along with Elliott and JP. Question is which ones. Maybe nearer the time Josh you could put post on Festival Antepost fancies. I know ante-post isn’t a focus here but might be good to share some knowledge!!

              JV 17/01/17 2:27 PM Reply


              • yep, suddenly in form haha! Albeit ran as they should have. Yep I can put up an AP fancies for readers to discuss. Given my stats profiling approach, and focus on handicaps, I won’t be adding much to the mix but will be interested to read comments!

                Josh 17/01/17 2:29 PM Reply


  • 3.15 Exe

    Dontminddboys 7/1 is a solid e/w bet in my eyes

    This lad is the only one in the field who I can see has the evident staying power to get round Exeter in the mud. By that logic he should be shorter. The Tizzard horse heading the market failed to stay LTO over CD and it is therefore quite baffling as to why he is current fav. An overreaction by the market to the ‘Tizzard factor’, surely.

    Likewise with the Hobbs horse. Far too short for a first time chasing under a trainer who, going by the numbers, isn’t one to get them winning on first crack over fences.

    A solid staying on run at Towcester two starts back and likewise on Soft at Warwick over 3 miles are both good indications that this is the test he needs and that he’ll hopefully hit the frame at least. And also he is stoutly bred (by Portrait Gallery for all that’s worth!)

    Ali 16/01/17 10:22 PM Reply


    • Dontmindtheboys appears to be a bit in and out, not quick enough, I think Quinto, 16/1, is quick enough and if he can translate his hurdle form to chasing, ? 1point EW

      Clavis 17/01/17 12:25 AM Reply


      • fair points clavis

        main thing was i fancied taking on the short-priced ones from the big stables

        yours looks to have a shout at the price too

        Ali 17/01/17 11:01 AM Reply


  • Had a successful day at Ayr today thanks to Josh with Tomahawk Wood. Did my two in singles and e/w double, 3/1 2nd 5/1 3rd(damage limitation) so decent day. Will be watching out for Beyondtemptation next time after listening to connections talk after the race. They were so happy she had shown some form and jockey Thomas Dowson spoke really enthusiastically about how she started running on down the home straight because “she realised she wasn’t hurting anymore”.
    For tomorrow there is just one bet on my figures in the 1.30Ex that is Late Shipment. If coping with carrying 11.10 will be very difficult to beat.
    Good luck to all, may all come back safe, human and equine.
    Thanks again Josh for Tomahawk!!

    Matthew Roberts 16/01/17 10:51 PM Reply


    • Great stuff Matthew, a 9/1 winner usually ensures a good day out at the races, and that as a worst case the day can be paid for! I received your photo BTW, cheers- he is a little trier that horse, and given distance back to the rest,(3rd down) if well placed, may be able to go in again. 2nd was unexposed also. Clearly no world beater but looks a solid handicapper.

      Josh 17/01/17 9:17 AM Reply


  • EXETER 2.40
    ( I expect HY on Tuesday)

    Headley’s Bridge 20/1
    Looks as if Simon Earl gave the horse one warm up run on G beginning December.
    This is a HY ground specialist, had a break after 28th Feb ’15. Reason unknown.
    Historic runs normally in Cl2 & Cl3, has the speed to shake the race if finding.
    I am 2 points EW

    Clavis 16/01/17 11:16 PM Reply


    • Interesting outsider Edmund, and based on his soft/heavy ground form can see why you would have a nibble at that price, may have an small EW tickle myself- your biggies have gone very well recently! GL. Good track form also. Could just be regressive, but if he is going to rediscover any old form, it looks likely to be at Exeter, in the mud. Interesting 20s poke for sure, we shall see how he goes!

      Josh 17/01/17 9:20 AM Reply


    • Glad you posted as you stiffened my resolve over this one as I’d bottled the early 25/1.

      chrisrees 17/01/17 9:29 AM Reply


  • Noted multiple heavy ground winners today at Ayr & current prices.

    2.20 Startichect. 1/1…… Aminabad 16/1
    2.55. Bonzo Bing. 8/1.
    3.30. Plus Jamais 4/1……… Beauboreen. 8/1 ……. Verko. 20/1.
    4.00. Surprise Vendor. 4/1.

    A few nice prices to consider on their preferred going.

    BOL all.

    Tony Mc 17/01/17 11:57 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh, I’m a bit dubious about both Kilbree Chief and Nortonthorpe Legend as using Geegeez Instant Expert they are the only two in the race with no win on heavy. KC is 0/5.

    I always think that the difference between soft and heavy is a bigger gap than between the other going classifications. Notwithstanding KC’s place record on heavy, stable form etc he’s not for me.

    Given Goldwell’s progeny’s heavy ground strike rate and his improved performance lto over 25f when 2nd to Nortonthorpe in receipt of 2lbs whereas he is in receipt of 16lbs todayI’m going to throw a speculative point at Bonzo Bing.

    Nortonthorpe is by Midnight Legend who is equally proficient on heavy to Goldwell but 14lbs for 3.5l looks generous.

    Good luck to all
    Hugh

    Hugh Fowler 17/01/17 12:24 PM Reply


    • read Matt Bisognos article on Gee Gee’s…by James Quinn ??
      single wins on heavy, fall into the bracket of, for whatever reason some horses and people can win something once….you have to look at multiple for true confirmation of ‘can do’.

      tonymc 17/01/17 12:40 PM Reply


    • Hi Hugh, I didn’t use Instant Expert on geegeez to narrow down to him, more the speed ratings, some trainer form bits etc. I have a flick on IE, but in general use the ‘profile’ tab in HorseRaceBase to look into the horse in more depth. He has enough placed form on heavy for me not to be using that as an excuse. I would like to think he will handle that as well as anything else in here, but we shall see! Although it was a 3 runner race, that handicap novice chase up carlisle, 24.5f, where he stayed on dourly up that hill, in heavy, suggests stamina wont be a problem. We will know in 2 hours.
      GL whatever you go with, if anything. Josh

      Josh 17/01/17 1:13 PM Reply


  • Error2.20 Ayr should read Clan Legend and not Startichect.
    apologies.

    tonymc 17/01/17 12:26 PM Reply


  • Hi all, I’ve just read on Lucinda Russell’s website how she was worried about the ground for KK and would prefer if it wasn’t as soft!

    Jamie 17/01/17 2:30 PM Reply


    • Oh joy! It has gone horrible there, much worse than yesterday, looks a right bog- but then again, based on that last race just then, they were getting through it enough and were not all strung out. There is ‘heavy’ and there is ‘heavy’ , he has enough good runs in it to suggest it is fine. We shall see. On what he has done on paper, he looks like he handles it fine to my dodgy eyes! Weight may tell, be impressive if fav wins off 12-00, in that mud.

      Nick may have the right one there, if that is slow motion stuff- may be the only one still going come the end, have had a small covering bet!

      Josh 17/01/17 2:32 PM Reply


  • Onward and upward – Another blank day

    Joe 17/01/17 3:05 PM Reply


    • Sometimes I feel like I am making no progress at all.Well, I may not be. Onward certainly, hopefully upward. Poor. again. Didn’t think that would be as testing when looking earlier, when a 10/1 winner isn’t a shock, work to do.

      Josh 17/01/17 3:10 PM Reply


  • I thought Gold Opera was there….sick as a pig….

    tonymc 17/01/17 3:44 PM Reply


    • You and me both. Those are always the worst, some much excitement, then disappointment. Thought big jump at last had sealed it, not sure what happened late on, mentally switched off or just out-stayed/legs tied up very quickly. Got to love this game!

      Josh 17/01/17 3:47 PM Reply


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