TTP Jumps Notes: 16/01/17 (complete)

1.The Ratings Pointers

2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

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1.The Ratings Pointers

HorseRaceBase

Top Rated

none.

Top 3 

3.50 A- Tomahawk Wood- WON 8/1>9/1 SP

3.05 P – Talk of The South – Fell

 

Geegeez Speed

Top Rated

3.05 P – Sweettoothtommy – UP

Top 3 

3.15 A – Snooker- PU 14/1>9/1

3.05 P – Leg Iron- PU 16/1>9/1>20/1

 

***

 

2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

AYR 

1.40 – Little Glenshee (micro class) UP 14/1

2.10 – Hartforth (hncp h) UP

3.15 – Snuker (all hncps) PU

3.50 – Tomahawk Wood (hncp h) WON 9/1

 

PLUMPTON

2.00 – Easter In Paris (all hncp + hncp chase) 14 2nd 5/1

3.05

Talk of The South (all hncps +hncp chase) Fell

Leg Iron (hncp c) PU

Sweettoothtommy (micro class) UP

 

***

 

3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

Well the only possible ‘biggie’, not on the ratings pointers, is Little Glenshee. The predominant thought in my head says he is 11,this trip is on the short side,he is up against younger horses,and is nowhere on either ratings set. I think he may get outpaced as they quicken in the final few furlongs. On the flip side, all race conditions are fine, he likes a slog in the mud, this is his second run back over hurdles after an age chasing,last run was C3,this is C4, and my word this is a weak race. One paced galloping through the mud, might, just be enough. 3lb below last hurdle win as well. He is 14s, and I am personally tempted to have a little nibble to find out- I suspect he won’t be quick enough, but there is enough there- I wouldn’t fall of my seat if he ran ok here, and as such, at 14s, I will have a play, probably 1/2 my TTP ‘ratings pointer’ stake, which is £5 for me. But, that is a subjective view which you can dismiss at your leisure! Expecting to turn over both those at the top of the market is probably asking for too much, but we shall see.

Of the rest, they are generally single figure odds. Hartforth won LTO for the ‘all qualifiers’ list at 50s, and I think a few of us had small nibbles, and that was fun to watch. He is only 5s here and along with the other non ratings pointers, I am happy to leave personally. Well, Easter in Paris is the only other one and I would want to see more over fences before following him.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

I will be updating results today and those will be available come tomorrow morning- for ratings pointers and ‘all’ qualifiers. I will also get you some stats on the NHF runners. If you have yet to read the revised ‘welcome note’ you can do so below, which also includes a link to a video intro also, which I think is worth a watch. Hopefully everything is clear enough after you have read/watched the below, if it isn’t already.

And if you like your trainer stats research etc you can flick through the following…

 

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That will be all for today, good luck with any bets,

Josh

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

27 Comments

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  • Hi Josh,
    I was in two minds whether to stay with the service but decided to, however I’m a tad disappointed to see that two payments of £7.50 have left my account for the first payment ?
    Best regards
    Paul

    Paul Preston 15/01/17 6:21 PM Reply


    • Hi Paul,
      That will clearly be an error. Possibly you signed up twice by mistake or an issue my end. I am out at the moment but will sort it tomorrow morning and obviously refund you one of the payments and make sure it doesn’t happen again. Apologies for inconvenience. Josh

      Josh 15/01/17 6:42 PM Reply


  • Thanks, don’t make it any sort of priority there’s no panic it could well be me hitting a button twice or something.
    Paul

    paul preston 15/01/17 8:23 PM Reply


    • Hi Paul, have just emailed you, one payment refunded and with any luck it should be fine moving forwards. Josh

      Josh 16/01/17 10:06 AM Reply


  • Probably the 2 Henderson horses 2.00 Easter in Paris 13/2 3.05 Talk Of The South 9/2
    3.05 Value Bet-Leg Iron 20/1

    gearoid180468 15/01/17 10:13 PM Reply


    • I agree about Leg Iron. Loves it here and looks like the only front runner as well. Also like Master Rajeem in the 15:15 at Ayr much for the same reasons I mentioned last week.

      nickmazur 15/01/17 11:07 PM Reply


    • Talk of the South looks a bet to me for sure. The two in front in the betting have doubts over ground/distance

      But for the life of me I can’t see how this Easter In Paris can win

      Then again, I thought that about Miss Oscarose who won for us here under same trainer. So this one could be another one of these ‘job horses’. All that said, I have to back the thing now!

      Maybe Mr Henderson is very shrewd and the drop in trip is what he needs.

      Ali 15/01/17 11:31 PM Reply


      • Just have to trust the stats Ali,they produce in the longterm,has top jock booked too

        gearoid180468 16/01/17 12:25 AM Reply


  • Heavy ground at ayr-carefull with bets there

    gearoid180468 15/01/17 10:32 PM Reply


  • Oh no, I’ve just learned that Western Cape, the very promising Seamus Mullins hurdler passed away.

    Rest in peace

    And the same sentiment goes to all the brave warriors who have lost their lives over the past weeks

    Ali 15/01/17 11:52 PM Reply


    • Totally agree Ali, these animals give of their all so sad when it goes bad.

      Matthew Roberts 16/01/17 1:24 AM Reply


  • 20/1 gone,best 18/1 BV

    gearoid180468 16/01/17 12:05 AM Reply


  • Going to Ayr Monday and my figures give me Freddies Portrait and Master Rajeem. Good luck to all, human and equine may all come home safe.

    Matthew Roberts 16/01/17 1:42 AM Reply


  • Morning Josh and all.

    Looking like a quiet for me today. Just some system bets and the top rated pointer.

    If I do spot an all weather horse that I may jump on I’ll try and post it up.

    Yesterday I read an ebook call ‘Horse race betting – a systematic approach to beating the bookies’ Very interesting and is pretty much what I am doing. Anyone else read it? Like to know your thoughts.

    Good luck today

    Gav

    Gavin 16/01/17 8:30 AM Reply


  • An alternative take on 310P is to think that the ex Nicholls Howlongisafoot is well h’capped off 122 (win off 134), down in grade and Aspell aboard a plus. Has won here and over 23F idling and stayed on over 24F as breeding implies.
    All 3m form (beaten) is in higher grade but this trip might be attainable in a small field with an easy finish 12/1.

    chrisrees 16/01/17 9:16 AM Reply


    • Hmm. We will disagree on that one! He is well handicapped because he looks badly out of sorts, I would have liked to have seen more LTO, albeit a much weaker race. Lugging 12-2 will be tough around here and I am certain Cannon would have had the choice, as he does for most of Gordon’s if he is free? Also a stamina niggle, 0/5,1p in handicaps over 3m, form at tad shorter. So, 26f, a question, esp in mud, and with that weight. But, I could have that very very wrong, the ability is there somewhere, maybe he shows it today. Big bowl of egg at the ready! GL
      (oh and an aside.. Plumton is a stiff enough finish isnt it, esp in the mud? Fair bit of a climb as they turn in, to the line? of have I got that wrong?)

      Josh 16/01/17 9:24 AM Reply


      • Well, a chance to gain momentum coming down the hill before the last bend and the final fences, but the worst of the climb is after the stick.

        chrisrees 16/01/17 10:07 AM Reply


  • At Ayr Master Rajeem is a brute shold carry this weight ok

    Matt Roberts 16/01/17 3:10 PM Reply


  • Tomahawk Wood looks well but Glenma takes the eye

    Matt Roberts 16/01/17 3:46 PM Reply


    • phew. Travelled well all the way in that, nearly threw it away two out, ground to victory in the mud. Solid start to the week, much ‘needed’!

      Josh 16/01/17 4:00 PM Reply


      • Great work Josh, Tomahawk paid for a good day st the races

        Matt Roberts 16/01/17 5:15 PM Reply


  • A good turnaround,had Kings Walk at 5,might have another in hot beat later

    gearoid180468 16/01/17 4:11 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh, just in…yes!, tomahawk saved the day along with Royal encore……gradually clawing back old losses…lol.
    Well done mate.

    tonymc 16/01/17 9:07 PM Reply


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