TTP Jumps Notes: SAT 14/01/17 (complete)

1.The Ratings Pointers

2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

4.Any general messages/updates etc

***

1.The Ratings Pointers

HorseRaceBase

Top Rated

12.55 K- Ericht  14,30 PU 7/2 

3.45 K – Artifice Sivola 14

Top 3 

3.15 K – No Duffer 30 UP

3.15 K – Volnaix De Thaix UP

3.35 W – Houblon Des Obeaux 14 4th 14/1 

 

Geegeez Speed 

Top Rated

12.55 K- Ericht  14,30 PU 7/2

3.15 K – Carloswayback UP

3.25 W – Eastview Boy UP

Top 3 

12.55 K – Rothman 2nd 12/1>7/1

3.15 K – No Duffer 30 UP

3.45 K – Artifice Sivola 14

3.35 W – Rigadin De Beauchene 14 UP

 

2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

KEMPTON

12.55

Ericht (all hncps+hncp c) UP

Rhapando (hncp c) BD

Rothman (hncp c) 2nd 

2.40

Will O’The West (hncp h) 30 UP

3.15

Volnaix De Thaix (all hncps+hncp c+micro – age/runs this season) UP

Carloswayback (hncp c) UP

No Duffer (micro class) UP

3.45

Artifice Sivola (all hncps+hurdle)

 

WARWICK

3.35

Mountainous (hncp c) UP

Goodtoknow (hncp c) 2nd 25/1

Russe Blanc (hncp c) UP

SpookyDooky (all hncps) UP

Houblon Des Obeaux (micro- horse runs this season) 4th 14/1

Emperors Choice (micro- horse runs this season) UP

Rigadin De Beauchene (micro – horse runs this season) UP

 

WETHERBY

2.50

Nautical Nitwit (micro TJC) 2nd 8/1

One For Harry (micro class) WON 9/1

3.25

Eastview Boy (micro TJC)

3.55

Mountain Path (NHF) WON 25/1

Northern Girl (NHF) (no speed ratings for race) UP 33/1

 

3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

Let’s start with non-ratings pointers- any ‘biggies’ on the ‘all qualifiers’ list I want to have a go at… and well, no, not really. Rhapando- would be noted if strong in the market but having had 600+ days off,not for me. WillOTheWest- last run was very poor, and looks like further the better for him, this trip may be sharp enough- but he is unexposed,and nothing ever a total shock with lightly raced handicappers. But, I have left him.

There are the two NHF runners at Wetherby, unraced, no ratings for either. The market can guide with their NHF runners, albeit odd biggie goes in. A race to keep an eye on as bar the trainer stats,we don’t have much else. May be worth some change at the end of the day,esp if no alarming drift come race time. (as an aside, I think it may pay to just back any Graham Lee ridden NHF horse,obviously he rides on the flat predominantly but doesn’t seem to get out of bed for nothing when getting on a NHF horse…something to watch anyway… 40/1>7/1 or so his last NHF ride,that won)

The 3.35 Warwick- well if you have read my free post tips, you will see I haven’t tipped any of those in that race,inc the two on the ratings pointers. I don’t discuss ratings pointers horses really- as my human subjective mind will not out think those, over time- I would maybe leave the odd loser,but I would get a few winners wrong also. Having said that, I would be surprised if any of the Venetia horses won- I would not be shocked if either of the two ratings pointers ran into the places though- but, weight/age may be the two main concerns, and using my stats/trends approach, didn’t highlight either. But they are solid yardsticks. They will be recorded as 1 point win bets, whatever they do, for the purposes of the results. Do not let me put you off.

Others in that race…well I tipped Russe Blanc last year to win but he hasn’t done enough to warrant support I don’t think- he just looks out of form,even if this has been ‘a plan’ you would have liked to have seen more LTO. But, a place isn’t beyond him. Spookydooky may be the interesting one and worth a small interest- he likes the mud and is unexposed- he is in awful form (just out of form,or didn’t like good ground?) and jonjjo is hot and cold, but a big run from him wouldn’t shock either.

So, there are a few there you may wish to take an opinion on. Or, just stick with the ratings pointers, end of- those should always be the first port of call- but the approach i have just taken above will help find us the odd 20/1+ winner over time with any luck, that is not on the ratings pointers list. As it happens, today, I don’t feel like there are any biggies lurking,about to romp home, not on the ratings pointers. But I may be wrong. Those are subjective views, after all.

Good luck with whatever you play,hopefully Erict can make it a perfect 4/4 for ‘double top rated’ qualifiers- and if not, Rothman takes that prize!

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

Strategy…

Just another quick note/thought, which may be obvious…but, we all have a different mental make up when it comes to betting. Personally I can mentally withstand long losing runs,10/20/30 points in a hit. As you know with the Ratings Pointers, as with the welcome note above, there are two approaches developing… having something on all ratings pointers horses or just backing Top Rated runners (esp if wanted only 1-2 bets per day on average) Or a combination of both whereby you may back all ratings pointers and have more on Top Rated runners. (that’s is my preferred approach at the moment) …

Losing runs/Each-Way Betting… Given we are operating around 50% win/place strike rates, each-way betting is an option, if you prefer more regular returns. At what price you may decide to bet 1/2 point EW say, is up to interpretation. Some may say 5/1+, others 8s, others 12/1 – but, if that is what is required to make your experience more enjoyable, then bet EW over a certain price. Keep a track of results as that may be the best approach for you. Yes,it is possibly the points return may be bigger over time,if backing just win only, all odds- but that is irrelevant if a lack of more regular returns was the reason for stopping,as you wouldn’t have been backing them anyway!

Any thoughts on such an approach welcome. Do post a comment if you have any views on that topic. As i said, we are all different, and I am probably more conditioned to backing win only most of the time, while kicking myself for not betting EW every now and then! (the 20/1 Huntingdon 2nd as an example) However you play them, give yourself an adequate bank, start small, and build up over time.

***

IMPORTANT CLARIFICATION: 

The ratings pointers… the qualifiers for the ratings pointers are determined by me at a single time, in one go. By that I mean I generally look at Geegeez Speed and HRB between 2-5pm the day before, depending on when the cards are uploaded. It is at that point that I determine whether a horse qualifies in the ratings pointers. I have done that since the start, and will not change that approach.

Non-Runners- of course, when there are non runners, some horses can suddenly become Top 3 in either ratings set. These WILL NOT be included in official results. It simply is not fair to record a winner say, that may only have qualified due to non runners, 1 hour before the race or so. If you use HRB, or Geegeez, or other ratings, you are of course free to do as you please with such runners. But, whatever they do, they will not be included in official results. I have to take a judgement on when all members can get on, usually between 5pm and 10am latest the next day.

Hope that makes sense. In essence, the rating pointers list, when published first time, will never have any late additions.

***

KEY:(applicable across the blog) 

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 10+ runs last 20 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

NOTE: In the ratings pointers above, BOLD indicates a ‘double qualifier,against both ratings’ (ie Storming Strumpet) in RED is a ‘double top rated qualifier- they are a perfect 3/3 so far…) (no such qualifiers today

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

24 Comments

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  • Although a very small sample,when I was doing Paddy Watch,the ones i staked e/w either won or were unplaced.when you consider a standard 1/4 the odds race a 10/1 placed works out at 5/4 on total outlay,16/1-6/4 20/1-3/1.Probably its only worthwhile doing e/w 16/1+.maybe 1pt win up to 10/1 and 1/2 pt win up 20/1,if your strike rate is fairly consistant probably doesnt matter too much
    On a separate issue I think if you have over 5 bets a day you probably need 2 winners to turn a profit,if your having 10 bets a day doesnt take many losing days to deplete your bank and your confidence,Best to have 1/2 bets a day weekdays and maximum 5 at weekends,I whittle down by discarding 6/4-3/1 chances firstly,3/1-5/1 secondly.By and large a missed 3/1 winner is of little consequence longterm

    gearoid180468 13/01/17 9:09 PM Reply


  • Here is an email I received today,some usefull advice I think

    5 Do’s & Don’ts To Help Achieve Your 2017 Betting Goals

    1) Don’t watch or follow every bet live

    One of the biggest emotional hits from betting can be found in watching a bet you have placed as it happens.

    Whether it’s following a football game on TV or reading live commentary text on a horse race you have a bet on – nothing quite gets the heart rate going, especially when it’s a close run thing.

    The problem here is that such emotions do nothing to help your rational thinking or your betting.

    It can quickly become addictive to seek the ‘hit’ that a winning bet brings about and before you know it, rather than looking for value bets, you simply start to look for winners (whatever the odds). Never a good strategy for any punter!

    Coupled with the fact that studies have found that a losing bet hurts you twice as much as the enjoyment gained from a winning bet and you have a recipe for disaster.

    Yet if you follow a good tipster, then there is simply no need to watch every bet live as you are not the one selecting it.

    Trust the tipster to select the tip, place it and check the result at the end of the day. At a stroke, you will find your betting is that much easier to handle – win or lose!

    2) Don’t jump in at huge stakes!

    It’s important to set rational, achievable goals from your betting and to not feel pressure to make huge gains immediately.

    Let’s be realistic – you are not going to become a full-time professional punter overnight.

    It takes time, experience and an understanding of just who the right tipsters are to follow to fit your lifestyle and preferences.

    Yet, I still hear from the occasional new punter who jumps right in at big stakes with a new tipster. For them it’s all or nothing and they simply want to get rich quick.

    Very often they got stuck in without proper preparation, whether it’s by setting up with the right betting banks, an understanding of how the tipster works or simply betting experience in how to handle winning and losing runs.

    Their quest to get rich quick can easily unravel as they struggle to handle the pressure of betting at huge stakes as an inexperienced punter. It’s always very sad to see and as much as I try to help, sometimes my advice falls on deaf ears.

    Instead, my suggestion is to start slowly, choose a few tipsters that suit your profile and to stake at affordable levels. The goal is to gradually build up your profits over time. Rome after all was not built in a day!

    3) Don’t be fooled by quick-fixes

    Every new year we see a whole host of new ‘gurus’ promising quick-fixes, cheats and easy solutions to help with our resolutions.

    Whether it’s a new fad diet, new product to help stop smoking, or for those of us in the betting world – amazing new tipsters or betting systems. These so-called ‘gurus’ tout their wares using compelling sales material all designed to encourage us to think ‘Hey this quick-fix could actually work for me!’

    Sadly, in 99% of all cases, these ‘gurus’ are touting nothing but hot air.

    It’s a major problem for many punters, especially those following many social media tipsters who promote accumulator challenges. These tipsters often make their profits from a share of the losses you suffer with their recommended bookmakers. It’s in their interests for you to lose, not win.

    Instead, forgot all about quick-fixes. They don’t exist and these gurus prey on our vulnerabilities.

    Betting wise – my advice is focus on the top tipsters as featured in our Hall of Fame and the latest Tipster Profit Report. They might not promise you a lifechanging 10-leg winning acca, but they will make you steady, reliable profits long-term.

    4) Do get a friend to keep you accountable

    Just as a good Personal Trainer will often act as your fitness sounding-board to keep you on track, so I firmly recommend having a ‘betting mate’ to do the same.

    By this, I mean somebody trusted such as a good friend, relative or even partner who you are accountable to for your betting.

    If you know you must run all your major betting decisions by somebody you trust and who has your best interests at heart, it will stop you making rash (and often incorrect) decisions. Not only this but they can also help keep you motivated in tough times.

    I have my own ‘betting mate’ with whom we each honestly discuss our own punting and the key decisions we both make. Just the simple act of having another pair of eyes or somebody outside your betting bubble can at times be invaluable, even for the most experienced gambler!

    5) Do switch off at the end of the day – stop checking bookmaker account balances and results!

    Betting in the modern world can be all-encompassing with so many markets to bet on and so many ways to constantly check your progress.

    With your mobile phone or tablet, it’s all too easy to keep checking your bookmaker accounts and bets every hour of every day just to see how much progress we have actually made. It might not be your bets but your twitter feed or live scores app – either way you are constantly ‘switched-on’ to betting.

    Yet, this gives you no respite or breathing space to focus on something else instead and recharge your batteries. This is especially important at the end of the day when your brain gets tired and rational thinking becomes that much harder.

    Coupled with the emotional strain if too heavily involved in checking each of your bets as they happen, it can be too much to handle for some.

    My advice is to do whatever it takes to walk away from your betting once it’s done. Whether it’s simply turning your phone off or taking the dog out and playing with the kids….anything and everything to stop you thinking about betting.

    After all your betting is going nowhere until the morning. Switch off, recharge, relax and come back to it fresh another day.

    gearoid180468 13/01/17 10:26 PM Reply


  • For me No Duffer Ericht and Suzie Special Wells 3:25 WETHERBY
    Artifice Sivola 3:45 KEMPTON
    Long Shot is Fourth Act 2:25 WARWICK will be over 30

    Pab 14/01/17 12:38 AM Reply


    • I can always count on Suzie won time again,My Target remain unbeaten at Ling

      Pab 14/01/17 6:03 PM Reply


  • I would add if you have to watch your bets and the Mrs is about better make sure it’s the ones that win haha! I like to watch racing with my son as he’s my good luck charm 😉

    James b 14/01/17 12:45 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh
    The explanation is obviously somewhere, but can you just clarify the figures in green next to the HRB & GGZ rating selections?

    Many thanks
    Chris R.

    broadsword 14/01/17 10:39 AM Reply


    • Ah I did put the ‘key’ up for a few days in a row on here and free posts. .I will dig back out.. they are geegeez trainer form indicators , indicating a trainer in form in last 14 days and last 30 days. They are only additional info to use as you please. Josh

      Josh 14/01/17 10:43 AM Reply


      • ‘Key’ now above, at bottom of post…

        Josh 14/01/17 10:45 AM Reply


        • Thanks Josh, much appreciated.

          broadsword 14/01/17 10:49 AM Reply


  • Good morning all

    I’m only on the top rated pointer for me today, along with a system bet.

    The system is for first time out for trainers NH been throwing up some nice winner so far over the last year, although been a ruff over Christmas so I’ve place it in my amber list for a possible rethink if thing don’t get better over the next couple of months.

    2.40 Kempton – Sam Red 1pt win or e/w 11/1 (B365,BV,WH,BFSB,BW) as of writing

    Have had a good look at the 1.25 Ling (AW)

    Josh’s pointer as come up with Jordan Sport, which is not a bad bet I was on him last time out very happy indeed. I think Kasbah could run a race today and also I have a case for a couple of others. I’ve decided to leave the race alone.

    One more thing, for my betting I have build up separate betting banks for everything I do, this way I have never got all my eggs in one basket so to speak. I have from time to time gone bust (as most gamblers do) with a bank, because I have separate ones I can also ways rebuild a lot easier and have no pressure on me, as I still have other banks still up and running (hopefully making me money). My mindset is for the long term and I think that’s why I’ve been drawn to this blog to interact with other like minded people and Josh is there to keep us countable, hope that’s ok with you Josh? 🙂

    Good luck today

    Gav

    Gavin 14/01/17 12:35 PM Reply


  • Ericht fin 4th

    Next time needs windscreen wipers to be fitted after all the rain at Kempton….then would have been able to see where the other runners had gone …..reasonable excuse I think

    confidence high for the day to get better but it is Saturday…..5,45 Wolv The Dukkerer EW @ 18/1

    Norman 14/01/17 1:22 PM Reply


    • Yep- looked back through form- not sure he liked that ground, whatever it was- had frost covers down, can make it tacky- all his handicap form (outside of maidens/novices where class edge can tell) his best form been on no worse that good to soft – whatever it was, he was never going from about 1/3 of way in it seemed. Rothman ran ok, but again, in that ground, looked like he was struggling. On we go. This week been a reminder that last week wasn’t the norm, hopefully a winner or two somewhere on the pointers. GL

      Josh 14/01/17 1:27 PM Reply


      • It’s my fault Josh. Was always planning to start after the holiday so this is the first week of me following the TTP Ratings which always seems to destroy the results of the service for the 1st week or 2.

        nickmazur 14/01/17 3:04 PM Reply


  • Was on Mountain Path @ 50.0 on Betfair using ratings as a pointer excellent result

    jeffrey 14/01/17 4:05 PM Reply


    • Phew, glad someone was – I’d had an awful day up to that point, hadn’t backed them, and thought, well, i haven’t got much else to lose! Albeit, was a last min 25/1 on Bet365, didn’t have time for exchange, damn- but, good to see you had a nibble! Well done.

      Josh 14/01/17 4:09 PM Reply


  • hi josh
    MOUNTAIN PASS ! 49 TO 1 BFSP, £5 @ 17 AND £5 @ 49 TO 1! glad decided to back all NHF, regardless of ratings, as you suggested, hope you backed it? counting in results?
    you did say worth backing all NHF

    pendrem 14/01/17 4:09 PM Reply


    • Hi Malc,

      Well I am glad you took note of that recommendation! Yes I did , albeit I am an idiot, and didn’t think about exchange, again- mainly as I waited- and was a tad last minute – but given he didn’t go to 40s+ I did throw something at him, yes. And rather pleased I did, albeit 25s, not 50s, damn! Well done. Made up for a poor poor day, before then. Josh

      Josh 14/01/17 4:12 PM Reply


      • Oh NHF won’t be counting in ‘ratings pointers’, as they were not,(i do count NHF runners with ratings) but I really should start recording NHF separately given they are the only non-handicap stats etc, and quite unique, esp in lack of ratings.

        Josh 14/01/17 4:13 PM Reply


  • I had 5/7 rating pointers showing to back it i only require 4 to be positive, cannot reveal which data at present but a very clear pick to me.

    jeffrey 14/01/17 4:14 PM Reply


    • You use whatever you wan’t Jeffrey, seems to be working. My default in NHF is to have something on if not sure, unless obvious trainer odds stats, had hammond one gone 33s, 40s+ I may not have touched it. Stayed fairly steady all day. Turns out he won the same NHF race last year also. Didn’t know that before.

      Josh 14/01/17 4:16 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh,
    I didn’t know about betting all NHF contenders,a costly lack of knowledge by me.
    Ouch.

    Andy Ness 14/01/17 5:01 PM Reply


    • Hi Andy, Ah, well- the joy is, we can look forward to the next one, and there will be others..
      In truth, I have discussed it before- another addition to welcome note needed maybe- the advice is the ratings pointers are the core- and from there we see..
      I tried not to put anyone off the two runners this morning, from ‘the notes’ above, albeit it wasn’t a ‘back them’ advice.

      I need to keep separate results for NHF- as they are different stats from the rest – in sens non-handicap,often dealing with first start runners- where we only have trainer habit to go on- esp when not rated in my two ratings sets.

      I haven’t kept those results separate- so it hasn’t been an ‘advised’ strategy as yet. My error there, so apologies. But, there is a case to view them differently, and apart from the others.

      You won’t be alone in having not backed him, given lack of comments I suggest you speak for the majority. We must try and take the positives! I think, esp decent prices, having something on may be way forward. I will pull my finger out next week and go through NHF results for recent weeks and see where we are at.
      Josh

      Josh 14/01/17 5:08 PM Reply


  • I have been backing all NHF as suggested but didn’t get on these as I had to go out this afternoon so couldn’t keep an eye on what they were doing. Mid morning at least both were drifting significantly so I wrongly assumed I was probably OK to leave them. Would have more than made up for the ratings pointers losses today!

    Andy M 14/01/17 5:54 PM Reply


  • According to Betfair the BFSP was 181/1
    OUCH.

    Andy Ness 14/01/17 9:15 PM Reply


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